Japan 2021 Tokyo Metropolitan assembly elections (July) and Lower House Election Oct 31st

[jaichind]

Due to COVID-19 polls close at 8PM instead of the regular 7PM I think.  I have to verify that.

[jaichind]

https://www.asahi.com/articles/ASP5K633LP5KUTFK01J.html

PNHK changes its name from "NHKから自国民を守る党" or Party that Protects People from the NHK to "古い政党から国民を守る党" or "The Party that Protects the People from Old Political Parties." Most media outlets labels them as  "古" or Old just like 自由民主党(LDP) is called "自" or Freedom.  I guess PNHK (which I assume now has to be called POPP) wants to expand its appeal to not just anti-NHK put as a full blown anti-establishment party.

Sigh.  "古い政党から国民を守る党" or The Party that Protects the People from Old Political Parties formerly known as "NHKから自国民を守る党" or Party that Protects People from the NHK has renamed themselves again to become "嵐の党" or Storm party.  When asked why there is another name change party leader 立花孝志(Tachibana Takashi) said that "it is important for a party to have a simple name and we want to create a storm in Japanese politics."   So new this party will be SP or Storm Party.

Due to these party name changes in quick succession we now have the spectacle of "嵐の党" or Storm party candidates in campaign vans that still says "NHKから自国民を守る党" or Party that Protects People from the NHK



but the ballot will have  "古い政党から国民を守る党" or The Party that Protects the People from Old Political Parties next to the candidates name but the real name of the party is now "嵐の党" or Storm party.

[jaichind]

Looking at election posters it is confirmed that voting will end at 8pm versus regular 7pm which is clearly due to COVID-19.

[Lachi]

10am turnout estimate is 2.92%, down 2.76% on 2017

[jaichind]

All big LDP defeats (1989 2009 2017) are all high turnout elections.  Given turnout trends we can rule out a major LDP defeat.  Still low turnout does not necessary mean LDP landslide like in 2013.  2005 had low turnout and it was a solid LDP-KP victory but not a massive one.  I think at this stage we can assume a LDP-KP majority.  Question is how big.

[Lachi]

noon turnout estimate was 9.54%, down 5.12%

[jaichind]

Turnout status as of 6pm

　　　　　　2021　　 2017　　 Diff
 9AM     　  1.19％    2.79％    -1.60%
10AM    　  2.92％    5.68％    -2.76%
11AM        5.82％   10.17％    -4.35%
Noon         9.54％   14.66％    -5.12%　
 2PM     　15.59％   20.88％    -5.29%
 3PM     　18.12％   23.81％    -5.69%　
 4PM        21.23％   26.10％    -4.87%
 5PM        23.68％   28.86％    -5.18%
 6PM        26.13％   32.04％    -5.91%

Early    　12.38％   12.23％   ＋0.15%

Final　　　　　　　  51.28％

With one extra hour of voting in 2021 it seems we are headed toward around 46% turnout like I guessed at the beginning of the day.  I think if turnout ended up something like 43% then it will be a massive victory for KP then LDP and then JCP with CDP being hurt and TPFA crushed.  As it is it the winner/loser will be the same sequence but not as massive.

[jaichind]

Adjusted numbers for 6pm

　　　　　　2021　　 2017　　 Diff
 9AM     　  1.19％    2.79％    -1.60%
10AM    　  2.92％    5.68％    -2.76%
11AM        5.82％   10.17％    -4.35%
Noon         9.54％   14.66％    -5.12%　
 2PM     　15.59％   20.88％    -5.29%
 3PM     　18.12％   23.81％    -5.69%　
 4PM        21.23％   26.10％    -4.87%
 5PM        23.68％   28.86％    -5.18%
 6PM        25.35％   32.36％    -7.01%
 7PM                      39.05%
 8PM
Early    　12.38％   12.23％   ＋0.15%

Final　　　　　　　  51.28％



Still looks like to end up something like 46% turnout, perhaps 45.5%.  In 2017 there was a last minute surge in voting as polls close at 7PM.  The surge time time will be near 8PM.

[jaichind]

In theory lower turnout will hurt CDP as well.  But many of the marginal seats are CDP-TPFA marginals and lower turnout will hit TPFA even worse so seat wise CDP might not do that badly.

[jaichind]

NHK live stream

http://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/live/

should be up soon for 8PM (7AM EST) poll close and exit poll

[jaichind]

So far no exit poll leaks.  That usually means LDP did well.  If the LDP did not do well the leaks would have started by now.

[jaichind]

Some JRP sources say that the data they seen says LDP-KP are doing worse that expected and that LDP-KP getting to a majority will be very close.  This would imply LDP at around 40 seats versus 45-50 seats that most expect.

[jaichind]

　　　　　　2021　　 2017　　 Diff
 9AM     　  1.19％    2.79％    -1.60%
10AM    　  2.92％    5.68％    -2.76%
11AM        5.82％   10.17％    -4.35%
Noon         9.54％   14.66％    -5.12%　
 2PM     　15.59％   20.88％    -5.29%
 3PM     　18.12％   23.81％    -5.69%　
 4PM        21.23％   26.10％    -4.87%
 5PM        23.68％   28.86％    -5.18%
 6PM        25.35％   32.36％    -7.01%
 730PM    28.41%   35.88%    -7.47%                 

Early    　12.38％   12.23％   ＋0.15%

Final　　　　　　　  51.28％

I was wrong about 2017. Polls closed at 8PM back then as well.  Looks like we are headed toward 44% turnout.  Should be excellent news for KP.

[jaichind]

NHK stream live

[jaichind]

NHK exit polls.  TPFA outperformed.  LDP-KP majority in danger

LDP       25-43
TPFA     20-35
KP        16-23
JCP       14-22
CDP       11-22
JRP        0-2
TSN       1-3

Wow.  Exactly opposite of what I thought.  TPFA ate into LDP KP JCP CDP across the board.

If TPFA outperformed then I agreed KP could lose a couple of seats.

[jaichind]

Asahi already called Ome (青梅市) for TPFA.  This was expect to be LDP with TPFA with an outside chance.  To be called right away means long night for LDP.  It seems there were some opposition tactical voting for TPFA which will have serious implications elsewhere.

[jaichind]

Asahi also called Chiyoda City (千代田区) for TPFA.  Again. Disaster for LDP.  LDP was viewed as having an edge here but to be called for TPFA right away is a disaster and shows that the CDP vote swung behind TPFA where necessary to defeat LDP.

[jaichind]

So far Asahi has

https://www.asahi.com/senkyo/togisen/

25 out of 127 called

LDP                2
KP                  5
TPFA               7
pro-TPFA Ind   1
CDP                5
TSN                1
Minor Left       1
JCP                3

[jaichind]

The NHK exit poll vote shares for various districts are a disaster of KP.  It seems KP vote collapsed across the board.  LDP also doing badly in some districts.  There are clear signs that TPFA CDP and JCP are tactically voting for each other.

It seems KP as the boy that cried wolf is finally eaten by the wolf if this holds as nobody believed them when they said they are in trouble.

[Logical]

LDP has underperformed nearly every election since Suga became leader.

[jaichind]

LDP has underperformed nearly every election since Suga became leader.

Yeah. This clearly not just some fluke. This is a clear trend.  If the results are like the exit polls there are going to be greater noises in LDP for Suga to go.  It seems the puppet master does not a good job when he has to be the front office person.

[jaichind]

NHK detailed exit poll



LDP       25-43
TPFA     20-35
KP        16-23
JCP       14-22
CDP       11-22
JRP        0-2
TSN       1-3
RS         0-1
Ind        2-6 !!!

[jaichind]

Fun battlegrounds this time around

Meguro City (目黒区) (3- member district):
4 way battle for 3 seats.  LDP KP TPFA JCP are in a 4 way tie for 3 seats.  LDP is hampered by another weaker LDP candidate and JCP is hammered by CDP being in the race.  CW seems to be that JCP is the most likely to get one of the 3 seats on CDP tactical voting with LDP KP TPFA neck-to-neck for the last two although it is totally possible JCP ends up being the odd man out.

Nakano City (中野区) (3- member district):
4 way battle for 3 seats.  LDP KP TPFA CDP are in a 4 way tie for 3 seats.  JCP is not in the race and will implicitly back CDP ergo CW seems to be that CDP is the most likely to win a seat.   LDP KP TPFA are in a tight race for the last two seats even though CDP could end up losing.

Toshima City (豊島区) (3- member district):
4 way battle for 3 seats.  LDP KP TPFA JCP are in a 4 way tie for 3 seats.  CDP is not in the race and will implicitly back JCP ergo CW seems to be t hat JCP will most likely win a seat.  LDP KP TPFA are in a tight race for the last two seats.

These 3 seats but especially Nakano City (中野区) and Toshima City (豊島区) are viewed by KP as extreme danger  of losing.  The KP has to face the pressure of a resurgent LDP, TPFA incumbent advantage, and CDP-JCP alliance.  In the end KP will squeeze through at the expense of TPFA in my view.

Another fun one is

Ota City (大田区) (7- member district):
LDP and JCP are expect to get a seats.  LDP TPFA JRP CDP and 2 KP candidates are battling for the remaining 5 and it seems to be a 5 way tie.  KP vote share will be nearly identical (KP base will be told which of the two to vote for to get equal vote shares) so most likely both KP candidates makes it through.  The remaining LDP TPFA JRP and CDP are unclear which 3 will make it.  CW says CDP is the most likely to miss out by a small margin but I think it will be TPFA.

Meguro City (目黒区) (3- member district) exit poll.  TPFA JCP LDP.  KP collapsed


Nakano City (中野区) (3- member district) exit poll. CDP TPFA LDP.  KP also underperformed


Toshima City (豊島区) (3- member district) exit poll.  TPFA JCP LDP.  KP also underperformed


For all 3 KP now has to hope for a LDP collapse for them to get through.


Ota City (大田区) (7- member district) exit poll: JCP JRP CDP TPFA LDP KP LDP (KP 8th, TPFA 9th, LDP 10th)



Total diester for LDP and KP.  For KP to keep their two seats then again have to hope for LDP underperformance

[jaichind]

Shinjuku City (新宿区) (4 member district ) exit polls are another disaster for KP

JCP TPFA CDP LDP (LDP 5th KP 6th)




TPFA was expected to finish 5th behind LDP KP CDP JCP but a TPFA surge drove KP to 6th place.  It seems unlikely KP will keep their seat unless, again, like the others, LDP totally underperforms exit polls.

[jaichind]

Shinagawa City (品川区) (4- member district) exit polls

Looks like a train wreck for LDP-KP

It seems to be CDP  pro-TPFA ind (really TPFA rebel) TPFA JCP with LDP 5th KP 6th and LDP 7th.  By nominating 3 candidate between LDP-KP they might end up with zero.