Japan 2021 Tokyo Metropolitan assembly elections (July) and Lower House Election Oct 31st

[CumbrianLefty]

So the SDP have now become "minor left"? How are the (once) mighty fallen

[jaichind]

So the SDP have now become "minor left"? How are the (once) mighty fallen

Its worse then that.  SDP is not even running in this election.  SDP mostly merged into CDP last years with a rump SDP continuing to exist in some Western Japan prefectures.   In Tokyo there is no real independent SDP left.

[jaichind]

It seems the reason for this KP freak-out that they will lose 2-3 seats is due to the fact that because of COVID-19 the national KP was not able to do a GOTV surge of KP party workers across Japan into Tokyo.  For the KP the Tokyo  Metropolitan assembly is the most important election KP fights and is more important than the Lower House elections.  The reason for this is because the Soka Gakkai sect (some would call cult) which KP is based on is based in Tokyo which means the Tokyo Metropolitan government is the government entity that regulates Soka Gakkai.  KP, as Soka Gakkai's political wing, has the duty to ensure that no harm comes to Soka Gakkai from its regulators.  Ergo for KP the   Tokyo  Metropolitan assembly elections where KP can accumulate political power to influence the Tokyo Metropolitan government.  As a result every Tokyo Metropolitan assembly elections sees KP party workers across Japan stream into Tokyo to campaign and do GOTV activities which they are unable to do this time.

In the end I am not sure this concern will actually translate into KP losing seats and most likely it will not.

[jaichind]

KP party newspaper analysis of the Metropolitan assembly is now in full freak-out mode.   They now project KP will lose 2 out of 23 seats for sure and are 50/50 to lose 5-7 more seats across 7 districts.  Again this is mostly a way to push up the KP vote and scam the LDP voter into tactically voting for KP.  It is convenient for the KP that KP party newspaper has LDP way ahead  in the 6 out of those 7 districts (the 7th is is clear LDP is not way ahead so KP knows not to discredit itself) where KP is going to lose or could lose seats.  The signal to the LDP voters in those 7 districts is to shift their vote to LDP to save KP seats and to ensure a LDP-KP majority.

[xelas81]

Is there any district polling for Tokyo assembly elections?

[jaichind]

Is there any district polling for Tokyo assembly elections?

None that did that explicitly.  Mainichi came out with a district by district analysis which had a huge LDP surge, KP collapse, and anti-LDP tactical voting for TPFA from CDP and even JCP voters.  But it is not clear if that is just mapping their Tokyo wide poll plus some stringer district takes to derive what a district by district poll would look like.  KP it seems is doing their own district by district polling and releasing trends selectively which the clear goal of provoking LDP->KP tactical voting by  saying KP is in big trouble and LDP have a lot of surplus votes.  So I would rule that out as an honest poll.  To be fair this does put KP and Mainichi  as having similar results and could actually reflect reality.  It is just KP has played the boy that cried wolf too many elections in a row for me to believe them.

[jaichind]

I was not able to get a 2021 map of the Tokyo Metropolitan assembly districts and their sizes so I am posting the 2017 map.

The only change from 2017 to 2021 is 大田区 (Ota City) went from 8 seats to 7 seats while 練馬区(Nerima City) went from 6 seats to 7 seats.



This leaves us with
a) 7 1- member districts:
CDP and a pro-CDP minor left united opposition will most likely win 2 with LDP winning the rest although TPFA have a chance in 2 of them based on anti-LDP tactical voting.

b) 15 2-member districts:
LDP will win a seat in all 15.  In most of them it will be CDP-JCP-TSN  battling TPFA for the second seat.  In one seat KP will be in the fray and will most likely win the second seat.

c) 7 3-member districts: This will be the most fun batch of seats.  5 way battle between LDP KP TPFA CDP JCP to win the top 3.  In a couple of them LDP is very strong and is running two candidates but that could backfire. Dynamics of tactical voting makes this set of seat very chaotic and hard to predict.  LDP KP and JCP most likely will do well with TPFA and CDP fighting for a slice of the seat here.  In one seat JRP seems to have chance as well.

d) 5 4- member district:  Just like the 3- member districts it is also a 5 way battle between LDP KP TPFA CDP and JCP.  In a couple of districts LDP and TPFA have nominated 2 candidates which could backfire on them. TPFA tend to be weak in these districts because its 2017 winners either retired, turned rebel, or does not have a DPJ background which means they are depending on LDP votes  to get elected in a year where the LDP vote most likely will flow back to LDP.  So in most of these seats it will be LDP KP CDP JCP.

e) 3 5- member districts, 1 6- member districts, 2 7- member districts, 8- member districts:  Here LDP KP TPFA JCP CDP might nominate 2 or even 3 candidates and along with TSN JRP and RS also in some of these seats it creates many different permutations of results.

[jaichind]

Mainichi has district by district assessments for 2/3 of the seats

Chiyoda City (千代田区) - Surprise that TPFA is ahead, most be anti-LDP tactical voting


Chuo City (中央區) - LDP way ahead as expected


Minato City (港區) - TPFA edges out CDP for second seat is a surprise


Shinjuku City (新宿区) - LDP winning 2 seats over CDP is a surprise


Bunkyo City (文京区) - it is 50/50 between JCP and TPFA for second seat, having JCP win not a surprise


Taito City (台東区) - TPFA winning second seat not a surprise.  TPFA having two candidates was a mistake but CDP and JCP both running here canceled out this mistake


Sumida City (墨田区) - They have 4 way tie between 2 LDP KP and JCP and have JCP losing out. Well within reason


Koto City (江東区) - LDP KP JCP CDP winning with outside shot for TPFA seems to match expectations


Shinagawa City (品川区) - TPFA CDP JCP KP in a 4 way tie for the last 3 seats.  Shock defeat for KP


Meguro City (目黒区) - LDP TPFA and JCP edge out KP in a shock.  LDP nominated 2 candidates here which was a mistake and should result with LDP wipeout but it seems KP will lose instead


Ota City (大田区) - Shock defeat of KP where it loses one of its seats.  LDP nominated two candidates here which most expect one will win.  But it seems LDP will do very well and KP loses one of their seats to JRP and TPFA


Setagaya City (世田谷区) - neck to neck between TPFA LDP TSN and CDP for the last 3 seats.  This projection expect CDP to lose out which is within what is expected to be reasonable


Shibuya City (渋谷区) - CDP and LDP wins which is expected


Nakano City (中野区) - Shock defeat of KP to TPFA for third seat.  Many expected LDP to lose out but they seems to be way ahead


Suginami City (杉並区) - LDP LDP KP TPFA CDP JCP winning the 6 seats seems to be the consensus


Toshima City (豊島区) - another shock defeat for KP losing out to JCP and TPFA for the third seat.  Many expected LDP to lose out but they seems to be well ahead


Kita City (北区) - LDP KP JCP seems to be the consensus although some think JRP has a chance


Arakawa City (荒川区) - shock defeat of KP losing second seat to TPFA


Itabashi City (板橋区) - LDP wins a second seat that many expected TPFA to win


Nerima City (練馬区) - seems like a 7 way tie for the last 6 seats between the 3 LDP candidates, CDP, JCP, TPFA and a pro-CDP minor Left.   Many expected the pro-CDP minor Left to win but this projection has LDP winning a 3rd seat.


Adachi City (足立区) - LDP LDP KP KP JCP CDP seems to match consensus as TPFA makes the mistake of having 2 candidates


Katsushika City (葛飾区) - LDP LDP KP JCP seems to match consensus


Edogawa City (江戸川区) - TPFA rebel edging out CDP for 5th seat is a surprise


Hachioji (八王子市) - LDP KP TPFA CDP JCP seems to be the concensus


Tachikawa (立川市) - LDP CDP not a surprise


Musashino (武蔵野市) - CDP not a surprise


Mitaka (三鷹市) - CDP LDP not a surprise


Ome (青梅市) - TPFA winning is a shock, most be due to anti-LDP tactical voting

[jaichind]

If you make reasonable assumptions on what the 1/3 of the districts are likely to look like in Mainichi survey the Mainichi  result should end up being


LDP                50
KP                  17
JRP                  1
TPFA              16
pro-TPFA Ind    2
CDP               18
TSN                 2
JCP                21

Which means LDP overperforming, JCP and TPFA somewhat overperforming, while CDP underperforming and KP way underperforming.

These results are perfect for KP to mobilize their vote as well as capture LDP tactical voters with KP on the edge of winning a bunch of seats with LDP well ahead with a bunch of surplus votes.  This Mainichi poll really looks like something paid for by KP. 

[jaichind]

Mainichi came out with the rest of their district projections and it matched exactly what I expected based on their first 2/3 of the districts

Fuchu (府中市) - LDP and pro-TPFA independent wins is not a surprise


Akishima (昭島市) - LDP way ahead as expected


Machida (町田市) - LDP KP CDP JCP as expected


Koganei (小金井市) - LDP well ahead when pro-CDP minor Left is expected to win


Kodaira (小平市) - LDP JCP wins by default since they are the only candidates


Hino (日野市) - JCP ahead of TPFA for second seat as expected


Nish**tokyo (西東京市) - LDP CDP wins as expected


Nish**tama (西多摩郡) - LDP CDP wins as expected


Minamitama (南多摩) - LDP TPFA wins as expected


Kitatama (北多摩郡) 1st  - LDP KP JCP wins as expected


Kitatama (北多摩郡) 2nd  - LDP TSN wins as expected


Kitatama (北多摩郡) 3rd - LDP KP JCP wins as expected


Kitatama (北多摩郡) 4th  - LDP JCP wins as expected


Tokyo Islands (東京諸島) - LDP landslide as expected



This means this is exactly the Mainchi survey results

LDP                50
KP                  17
JRP                  1
TPFA              16
pro-TPFA Ind    2
CDP               18
TSN                 2
JCP                21

[jaichind]

Latest LDP assessment

LDP       50
KP         19
TPFA     12
CDP      17
JCP       23
Others    6  (2 TSN, 1 JRP, 1 pro-TPFA ind, 2 pro-CDP minor Left ?)

They have LDP and JCP overperforming and KP CDP and TPFA underperforming.   Pretty close to Mainichi projections.

LDP does say that they do expect a weekend surge for TPFA which will cut into LDP seats.

[jaichind]

KP Party Newspaper continues to list a bunch of 3- and 4- member districts that are rapidly shifting and in danger for KP.    Regardless of weather these projections are true or now KP is going with their strategy of crisis to provoke a KP GOTV surge as well as LDP tactical voters.

[PSOL]

https://twitter.com/Nihonpolitics/status/1410649294307266563

While recognizing the CPC centennial is mostly meaningless virtue signaling, this has got me thinking on the state of the Japanese Left. Stalin did accuse the JCP of upholding Trotsky more than the CPSU line in the 1930s, and most other socialist groups in Japan dislike the policies of the Soviet Union and CCP throughout the Cold War.

I’m trying to get clarification on what the JCP actually believed in during the 50s and what they believe in now after the Soviet Union doesn’t exist. Allegedly, the JCP leadership got drunk at a strip club in the Shibuya district at the dawn of the dissolution of the USSR. Now, it is widely said that the JCP are a primarily democratically run group of social democrats. Jaichind, can you speak to the truthfulness of these claims?

[jaichind]

https://twitter.com/Nihonpolitics/status/1410649294307266563

While recognizing the CPC centennial is mostly meaningless virtue signaling, this has got me thinking on the state of the Japanese Left. Stalin did accuse the JCP of upholding Trotsky more than the CPSU line in the 1930s, and most other socialist groups in Japan dislike the policies of the Soviet Union and CCP throughout the Cold War.

I’m trying to get clarification on what the JCP actually believed in during the 50s and what they believe in now after the Soviet Union doesn’t exist. Allegedly, the JCP leadership got drunk at a strip club in the Shibuya district at the dawn of the dissolution of the USSR. Now, it is widely said that the JCP are a primarily democratically run group of social democrats. Jaichind, can you speak to the truthfulness of these claims?

JCP was never about Communism and always really about labor unions.  This is why JCP and Rengo are so hostile to each other since they are fighting over the same union turf.  The main rule of thumb is that a JCP member is much more like another Japanese and a non-Japanese Communist.  Of course you can say that for a Japanese Christian.  There was a period in the early 1950s the JCP shifted to a revolutionary line but that did not last long.  JCP was really never that close to USSR or CCP.  JCP broke with CCP over Cultural Revolution in the 1960s and only patched up in the late 1970s.  Then JCP-CCP relations broke down over 1989 64 incident and was only patched up in 1998.  JCP only referred to CCP as a political weapon to beat up capital by linking Japanese capital to Japanese misdeeds on Mainland Asia during the war and never any real linkages to CCP.

These days CCP is really a Social Democratic Party.  An example would be a comparison of JCP magazines and  posters from 1920s to now.

1920s vs now JCP magazine


1920s posters


Now posters


As for the article.  Not a surprise LDP (二階(Nikai) faction of course) and KP sent congratulations to CCP as regardless of what the rhetoric is Japanese capital is just to integrated with PRC at this stage.  CDP sending a congratulations is a surprise since they have less ties to big capital and their woke style politics would make them hostile to JCP.  JCP always wanted to not be tagged as a CCP  puppet (and they are not) so they clearly stayed away from any congratulations to CCP.

What is interesting to me is the article used the term 噴飯 or spew rice which means ridiculous in Chinese.  The idea is that some is so absurd that if you say it when someone is eating that person would spew out the rice he was eating at the time.   I did not realize the Japanese adopted this word in their lexicon.   噴飯 was a term that started during  the Sung Dynasty but was not widely used in literary circles until the late Ming.  Most Japanese imports of Chinese sayings are from the Tang and Sung Dynasties so it is surprise the Japanese imported this one that was more from the Late Ming.

[jaichind]

https://the-japan-news.com/news/article/0007541596

"With Koike back, parties watch her moves"

Koike is out of the hospital.  Now w we will see if she goes all out to back TPFA.  She does have to consider the fact that LDP-KP are likely to win a majority so it is unwise to offend them.  She is also likely to want a role in LDP national politics in the future so it is unwise to anger the Tokyo branch of LDP too much.

[jaichind]

Early voting mostly in the 5%-8% turn out range as of July 1st with 2 more days to go for early voting.  Early voting in 2013 was 5.8% and in 2017 it was 8.8%.  This time it will most likely be between 9%-10%.  If so turnout most likely on 2017 levels.  That would be somewhat of a bad new for JCP and KP as low turnout are the best way for both parties to do well.  JCP does have the Olympics issue as a tailwind though so high turnout might help them.

[jaichind]

https://www.aljazeera.com/sports/2021/7/2/japan-still-undecidedon-having-spectators-in-tokyo-olympics

"Tokyo 2020 organisers warn of no-fan Olympics as COVID cases rise"

A uptick in Tokyo infection rates coming at the worst time.  I guess this is good news for JCP given their cancel the Olympics positions.  It could also lower turnout which also helps LDP KP and also JCP of course.

[Lachi]

Koike has gone down the Tomin support route

https://twitter.com/gendai_news/status/1411147612581896192?s=20

[jaichind]

Koike has gone down the Tomin support route

https://twitter.com/gendai_news/status/1411147612581896192?s=20

Yes, although it is clear that her "illness" earlier in the week was an attempt to minimize her campaign time.  That way she does not offend LDP-KP and cannot be accused of abandoning TPFA a party she created.

[jaichind]

Early voting 8.7% which is the same as 8.8% in 2017. All things equal this means overall turnout will be lower than 2017 which is positive for LDP KP and JCP.

One bright spot for CDP is that early voting overall is down in rural areas and up in dense urban areas.  In very competitive areas early voting is up which is not a surprise.  Also areas of CDP and JCP strength early voting is up.  These trends seems to give a tiny margin of benefit to CDP relative to LDP and TPFA.

[jaichind]

Looks like there will be some light rain today in Tokyo although it is not a thunderstorm which was what expected in which case that should not be a negative factor for lowering turnout.  Still turnout most likely will fall from 2017 levels.

[Lachi]

9am turnout 1.19%, down 1.6% from this time 2017

[jaichind]

Min-Medium-Max of various projections along with my projection


                      Min        Medium       Max           Me
LDP                 36             48           51             47
KP                   18             21           23             23
JRP                    0              1             2               1
TPFA                  8            12           25               9
Pro-TPFA Ind      1              1             2               1
CDP                14             19           23             21
TSN                  1              2             2               2
Minor Left          0              2             2               2
JCP                 19             21           22             21

My projection is based on
1) CDP TSN and JCP success in transferring votes to each other as well as some effective tactical voting in some districts
2) Olympic issue polarizes the vote toward LDP-KP one the one hand (going ahead) as well as CDP-TSN-JCP (delay/cancel) on the other hand with TPFA getting hit by taking the middle position (going ahead without spectators.)
3) 2017 TPFA vote surge shifting back to LDP or not voting
4) KP core base coming out and with LDP tactical voting wins 23 seats like every other election
5) Koike's lukewarm support for TPFA and implicit signal that her supporters can support LDP-KP will doom TPFA despite signs of last minute TPFA surge.

[jaichind]

Fun battlegrounds this time around

Meguro City (目黒区) (3- member district):
4 way battle for 3 seats.  LDP KP TPFA JCP are in a 4 way tie for 3 seats.  LDP is hampered by another weaker LDP candidate and JCP is hammered by CDP being in the race.  CW seems to be that JCP is the most likely to get one of the 3 seats on CDP tactical voting with LDP KP TPFA neck-to-neck for the last two although it is totally possible JCP ends up being the odd man out.

Nakano City (中野区) (3- member district):
4 way battle for 3 seats.  LDP KP TPFA CDP are in a 4 way tie for 3 seats.  JCP is not in the race and will implicitly back CDP ergo CW seems to be that CDP is the most likely to win a seat.   LDP KP TPFA are in a tight race for the last two seats even though CDP could end up losing.

Toshima City (豊島区) (3- member district):
4 way battle for 3 seats.  LDP KP TPFA JCP are in a 4 way tie for 3 seats.  CDP is not in the race and will implicitly back JCP ergo CW seems to be t hat JCP will most likely win a seat.  LDP KP TPFA are in a tight race for the last two seats.

These 3 seats but especially Nakano City (中野区) and Toshima City (豊島区) are viewed by KP as extreme danger  of losing.  The KP has to face the pressure of a resurgent LDP, TPFA incumbent advantage, and CDP-JCP alliance.  In the end KP will squeeze through at the expense of TPFA in my view.

Another fun one is

Ota City (大田区) (7- member district):
LDP and JCP are expect to get a seats.  LDP TPFA JRP CDP and 2 KP candidates are battling for the remaining 5 and it seems to be a 5 way tie.  KP vote share will be nearly identical (KP base will be told which of the two to vote for to get equal vote shares) so most likely both KP candidates makes it through.  The remaining LDP TPFA JRP and CDP are unclear which 3 will make it.  CW says CDP is the most likely to miss out by a small margin but I think it will be TPFA.

[jaichind]

9am turnout 1.19%, down 1.6% from this time 2017

And the early vote is the same as 2017.  Turnout was 51.28% in 2017.  I think it will be something like 46%-47% this time.