Japan 2021 Tokyo Metropolitan assembly elections (July) and Lower House Election Oct 31st

[jaichind]

Campaigning starts for the Tokyo Metropolitan assembly elections.  

This means candidates can start putting up campaign posters at designated areas (TPFA and LDP candidates have their posters up but the CDP candidate does not have its poster up yet)


and also start driving around in vans making speeches


These picture are from the LDP candidate in 2-member 西多摩(Nish**tama) District where it will be LDP vs TPFA vs CDP to fight it out for the top two spots.  Back in 2017 it was TPFA and LDP winning.  This time around most likely it will be LDP and CDP winning.

Given how restrictive campaign finance laws and ad laws are this is pretty much all the candidate can directly do.  The SuperPAC of Japanese political are the "support groups" that are aligned with each candidate that independently organize activities with its members to discretely do GOTV-like activities. Of course to avoid trouble with the law the candidate is careful to distance himself/herself from these "support group" organizations much like how candidates act with SuperPACs in the USA.

[jaichind]

This time around in almost all 1- and 2- member districts CDP and JCP will have an alliance where they avoid running against each other in these seats.    In 日野(Hino) the CDP-JCP alliance candidate is a JCP candidate.  Given the alliance a CDP MP is campaigning with the JCP candidate with flags of the CDP MP along with the JCP party flag (red.)



In 2017 it was TPFA and LDP that won beating out the JCP candidate and a DP rebel.  This time around with CDP support in theory JCP has a shot of squeezing out the TPFA incumbent.  Main problem is the TPFA incumbent has a DPJ background and still have a good hold on the CDP vote here.  Ergo the need for the JCP candidate to overplay the CDP party support factor.  The battle for the CDP vote will be critical for the JCP candidate to have a chance of getting in.  

Note the JCP candidate, in an attempt to attract CDP voters choose the Blue color (CDP's color) as her personal flag color.   She is also announced as the "United Opposition candidate" and makes not mention of her as a JCP candidate other than a separate JCP party flag.  Without knowing the background of this race I would have thought looking at the photo that she is the CDP candidate with JCP support versus the other way around.

[Logical]

Preliminary numbers for Japan's apportionment based on the census. The Kanto area will gain seats while rural prefectures continue to bleed seats.
https://www.nikkei.com/article/DGXZQOUA188FJ0Y1A610C2000000/

On the PR block Tokyo and South Kanto will gain 2 and 1 seats respectively while Tohoku, Hokuriku-Shinetsu and Chugoku will lose 1 seat each. I wonder if the number of seats will be increased again to placate rural members.

[jaichind]

Number of candidates by party in Tokyo Metropolitan assembly elections

TPFA    47  + 1 TPFA incumbent running as pro-TPFA independent (to help to rope in CDP vote)
LDP     60
KP       23
JCP      31
CDP     28
JRP      13
TSN       3
DPP       4
RS        3



Other than TPFA running a lot less candidates than in 2017 and JRP running more candidates is that on the Left there is much greater consolidation.  CDP-JCP have alliances in most 1- and 2- member districts and many of the minor Leftist parties have decided not to run or reduced their number of candidates.

In 2- member 小平市 (Kodaira City) district only LDP and CDP decided to put up an candidate so both are elected automatically.  This is a surprise as the 2017 TPFA and LDP winners both retired so one would have thought other parties would jump into an open seat but in the end TPFA did not put in a candidate and JCP did not put up a candidate as part of the CDP-JCP alliance agreement.

[jaichind]

Preliminary numbers for Japan's apportionment based on the census. The Kanto area will gain seats while rural prefectures continue to bleed seats.
https://www.nikkei.com/article/DGXZQOUA188FJ0Y1A610C2000000/

On the PR block Tokyo and South Kanto will gain 2 and 1 seats respectively while Tohoku, Hokuriku-Shinetsu and Chugoku will lose 1 seat each. I wonder if the number of seats will be increased again to placate rural members.

if so bad news for LDP and good news for CDP.  All the prefectures that are gaining seats are places where CDP is competitive and most of the prefecture losing seats are LDP strongholds.  Of course this will have to be for the the Lower House elections after this year's election.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Preliminary numbers for Japan's apportionment based on the census. The Kanto area will gain seats while rural prefectures continue to bleed seats.
https://www.nikkei.com/article/DGXZQOUA188FJ0Y1A610C2000000/

On the PR block Tokyo and South Kanto will gain 2 and 1 seats respectively while Tohoku, Hokuriku-Shinetsu and Chugoku will lose 1 seat each. I wonder if the number of seats will be increased again to placate rural members.

if so bad news for LDP and good news for CDP.  All the prefectures that are gaining seats are places where CDP is competitive and most of the prefecture losing seats are LDP strongholds.  Of course this will have to be for the the Lower House elections after this year's election.

Would the LDP just increase the size of the HoR to 482 or 483 members?

[jaichind]

Would the LDP just increase the size of the HoR to 482 or 483 members?

Well, currently Lower House has 465 seats (289 district 176 PR.)  It seems this plan will keep district seats at 289 but shifting 10 seats between different prefectures.

[Logical]

Would the LDP just increase the size of the HoR to 482 or 483 members?

It's certainly an option. The raw data can be found here
https://www.soumu.go.jp/main_content/000757018.pdf
Under the current plan, the apportionment will change like this:
+5 Tokyo
+2 Kanagawa
+1 Saitama, Chiba, Aichi
-1 Miyagi, Fukushima, Niigata, Shiga, Wakayama, Okayama, Hiroshima, Yamaguchi, Ehime, Nagasaki

Japan uses the Adams method, which is heavily biased towards smaller subdivisions, to distribute seats. If you increase the number of FPTP seats to 300, as it originally was from 1996-2014 then you'll get:
+6 Tokyo
+3 Kanagawa
+2 Aichi
+1 Saitama, Chiba, Osaka, Fukuoka
-1 Niigata, Yamaguchi, Ehime, Nagasaki
Some, but not all rural losses will be mitigated.

[jaichind]

Final media polls look pretty good for LDP

Yomiuri poll

LDP        30
KP           7
TPFA      11
CDP        8
JCP         6


While Kyodo has

LDP         31.8
KP           14.1
TPFA       12.1
CDP          7.1
JCP         13.1

Going by past experience both media houses are using the same pollster with the same underlying data but each media house use their own weights to derive vote share projection.  It seems Kyodo is taking into account the hidden KP vote while Yomiuri are not.

Note in 2017 the final poll was LDP 25 TPFA 22 and the result was a landslide defeat of LDP so these media polls tends to overestimate LDP.

Note these results are at total odds with most Japanese political discussion takes many of which expect LDP to fall below 40 seats while other tend to have LDP in the mid 40s (that is where I think it will end up.)

[jaichind]

Position on Olympics by party in Tokyo Metropolitan assembly elections

TPFA: Hold Olympics with no spectators
LDP: Hold Olympics as normal if infection rate continue to be under control
KP: Hold Olympics as normal if infection rate continue to be under control
JCP: Cancel
CDP: Cancel or delay
JRP: Make a call in mid July based on infection rates

[jaichind]

Kyodo poll 2017 vs 2021 comparison

                     2017                                       2021
              Poll   Candidates Ratio       Poll  Candidates   Ratio
LDP        25.9      60         0.43       31.8       60         0.53
KP         12.3       23         0.53       14.1       23         0.62
TPFA      26.7       50         0.53       12.1      47          0.26
CDP/DP   8.4       23         0.37         7.1       28         0.25
JCP       13.0       37         0.35        13.1       31        0.42

These poll results seems to indicate a rough election night for TPFA and CDP and a good election night for LDP KP and JCP.  I am not sure I buy these poll results.  I think the poll has a lot of undecideds which are most likely to be TPFA-CDP pro-Rengo anti-LDP anti-JCP  marginal voters.  Most of them I suspect will break for CDP. 

Rengo this time around have really hedged their bets.  They have endorsed all 4 DPP candidates (none of them will win), 28 out of 47 TPFA candidates, and 19 out of 28 CDP candidates.  Basically Rengo endorsed all TPFA candidates that does not have a LDP background and endorsed all CDP candidates that are not explicitly backed by the JCP (although in a couple of cases implicitly JCP support is ok.)

[jaichind]

Mainichi seat analysis based on their poll (results which are not disclosed)

https://mainichi.jp/articles/20210627/k00/00m/010/169000c


LDP      40-45
KP        20-23
TPFA    18-22
CDP     14-18
JCP      18-20

LDP+KP will be around 64 seats

This adds up to around 119-121.  The remaining 6-8 are most likely 2 TSN, 1 pro-TPFA independent, 2 JRP, 2 pro-opposition independent.  

Given it is almost 99% certain that the raw data for this poll is the same raw data Kyodo has, it seems Mainichi agrees with my analysis that the undecided are TPFA-CDP marginal voters (or else LDP seat count should be in the 50s) but unlike me they think this vote (most likely the pro-Rengo vote) will break for TPFA.

[jaichind]

The Mainichi projection of LDP-KP 64 seats which is barely over majority is such a chicken projection.  Mainichi knows the LDP win/lose minimum threshold is if LDP-KP wins a majority.   What they have must be that LDP-KP likely to get majority with a wide range of possibilities.  In order to hedge themselves they come out with LDP-KP with 64 seats.  What a bunch of chickens.  

[jaichind]

The Mainichi Tokyo poll also had Suga cabinet approval/disapproval to be 25/59.  Same poll has 30% for holding Olympics while 58% opposed.  It seems despite the LDP vote share lead the foundational numbers look bad for LDP.

[jaichind]

Asahi poll of Tokyo Metropolitan assembly  voting intentions

LDP    24
KP       5
JRP     2
TPFA  15
DPP    1
CDP    9
TSN    1
RS      2
JCP     7

Pretty good results for TPFA although I think CDP and JCP are underestimated here plus the KP hidden vote of course.

[jaichind]

Other Asahi Tokyo poll findings

Koike job approval/disapproval          57/27
Suga cabinet approval/disapproval    30/59
Good/Bad idea for LDP-KP majority   32/42
Olympics go ahead/delay/cancel       38/27/33
Olympics spectators Yes/No              30/64

Again, fundamentals tend to be against LDP

[jaichind]

If you look at the various district by district projections in Japanese discussions  and construct bottom up the the low - medium -high projections you get

                      Low    Medium   High      My
LDP                 37        41         46       45
KP                   22        23         23       23
JRP                   0          1           2         1
TPFA                10        15         21       12
pro-TPFA Ind      1          1          1         1
CDP                 20        24        24        23
Minor Left          1          2          2         2
TSN                  1          2          2         2
JCP                 17        18         22       18

The medium guess has LDP-KP at 64 which matches Mainichi's projection.  As today media poll/analysis/projections are digested I am sure some of these medium numbers might change.

I think the main X-factors are

a) Rengo vote: As mentioned before, a bunch of undecided seems to be anti-LDP anti-JCP TPFA-CDP marginal Rengo vote.   Where this vote goes between TPFA and CDP will be pretty decisive.

b) Olympics issue: The polling is not good for the LDP-KP on this topc and the Emperor already came out saying that he is "concerned" about holding the Olympics.  The LDP already doubled down on this so it is too late to turn back.  If this issue gains salience then that will hurt LDP and help JCP since the JCP position of cancellation is the most radical position on the other side of LDP.

c) Koike factor:  It is not clear if Koike will go all out to back TPFA.  After her second term ends as governor of Tokyo she might want to go into national politics, despite her disastrous outing in 2017.  Most likely her route will be through the LDP.  If so she might hold back in backing TPFA this time around as no to burn her bridges with the LDP-KP.

d) CDP-JCP vote transferability:  It is not clear if the non-Rengo CDP vote and JCP vote are transferable in the 1- and 2- member districts where CDP and JCP have formed an alliance.  It already has been shown that KP can transfer its vote to LDP in those seats.  If the non-Rengo CDP vote and JCP vote have a hard time being transferred to their ally that will help LPD but especially TPFA in those seats.

[jaichind]

Yomiuri poll of Tokyo Metropolitan assembly voting intentions has it at

LDP    23
KP       9
JRP      2
TPFA  17
CDP     8
TSN     1
RS       1
JCP      8

Fairly strong numbers for TPFA

[jaichind]

JX poll

Koike approval/disapproval 55.9/34.5

                                 candidates    ratio  
LDP    23.4 (+4.8 )         60             0.39
KP       8.4 (+2.3)           23            0.37
JRP     1.6 (-0.9)            13             0.12
TPFA   9.7 (+2.8 )           47             0.21
DPP     0.7(+0.3)            4              0.18
CDP   10.3(-0.1)            28             0.37
TSN    0.6 (--)                 3             0.20
RS      1.2 (-0.2)             3             0.40
JCP   12.3(+2.3)           31             0.40

Surge for LDP-KP.  LDP-TPFA marginal voters are making their choices more known with LDP picking up more than TPFA.    Still on a per candidate basis LDP KP CDP and JCP are all around the same levels.  KP is most likely underestimated and most likely the undecided are TPFA-CDP marginal voters.

[jaichind]

JX mostly nailed the election back in 2017.  Comparison of 2017 JX poll 1 week before the election versus now

                   2017          2021
LDP              18.7          23.4
KP                 5.0            8.4
TPFA            32.2            9.7
DP/CDP         6.0           10.3
JCP              12.2          12.3

JX says that their polling shows that CDP, TSN, and JCP vote bases will be fairly successful in transferring their votes to each other.

[jaichind]

Tokyo Shimbun poll much more negative for LDP


LDP        18.4 (-0.9)
KP           6.5 (+3.1)
JRP          4.1 (+0.7)
TPFA      13.9 (+4.3)
DPP         0.9(+0.4)
CDP       13.6(-0.4)
TSN         1.8(+0.2)
RS           1.7(-0.3)
JCP        15.6(+2.8 )

LDP and CDP falling back while TPFA and JCP surging.

[jaichind]

https://www.asahi.com/articles/ASP5K633LP5KUTFK01J.html

PNHK changes its name from "NHKから自国民を守る党" or Party that Protects People from the NHK to "古い政党から国民を守る党" or "The Party that Protects the People from Old Political Parties." Most media outlets labels them as  "古" or Old just like 自由民主党(LDP) is called "自" or Freedom.  I guess PNHK (which I assume now has to be called POPP) wants to expand its appeal to not just anti-NHK put as a full blown anti-establishment party.

Sigh.  "古い政党から国民を守る党" or The Party that Protects the People from Old Political Parties formerly known as "NHKから自国民を守る党" or Party that Protects People from the NHK has renamed themselves again to become "嵐の党" or Storm party.  When asked why there is another name change party leader 立花孝志(Tachibana Takashi) said that "it is important for a party to have a simple name and we want to create a storm in Japanese politics."   So new this party will be SP or Storm Party.

[kaoras]

Are Tokyo Shimbun and JX using a different methodology or something? It seems weird that they apparently don't have "shy JCP voters" (those are really high vote shares right?) but they are still under polling Komeito.

[jaichind]

Are Tokyo Shimbun and JX using a different methodology or something? It seems weird that they apparently don't have "shy JCP voters" (those are really high vote shares right?) but they are still under polling Komeito.

It is clear that all the mainstream media(Yomiuri, Asahi, Mainichi etc etc)  polls are the same underlying poll with each media shop doing their own adjustments.  JX and  Tokyo Shimbun clearly have a totally different and separate poll.   KP is always going to be under polled as KP voters often "hide out" as LDP voters.  I have no idea why JCP is stronger in the JX and  Tokyo Shimbun polls although I think JX also had JCP at a pretty strong position in 2017 as well. 

Part of the reason might be the Olympics issue.

The  Tokyo Shimbun poll has 42.4% for the cancellation of the Olympics, 25.3% for Olympics to be held without specters and 23.8% for Olympics to be held with limited spectators.  While that is a fall in the number of voters that are for cancellation the JCP has successful projected itself as the Olympics cancellation party.



If you look at the Olympics question by party 70.9 of JCP voters are for cancellation while it is 56.9 and 61.1 for CDP and TSN.  The JCP surge seems to be related to the fact that the 42.4% cancellation opinion is moving toward JCP to the harm of CDP.

[jaichind]

https://news.yahoo.co.jp/byline/oohamazakitakuma/20210629-00245275/

Political analyst for Asahi 大濱﨑 卓真 (Ohamazaki Takuma) came out with his projection based on his on the ground coverage and reading of polls



His projections pretty close to my current projection (which I am adjusting on daily basis based on polls and other news)

                    (Ohamazaki Takuma)         me
LDP                     47                             45
KP                       20                             23
JRP                       1                               0
TPFA                   12                             12
pro-TPFA Ind         1                               1
CDP                    21                             22
Minor Left             1                               2
TSN                     3                                2
JCP                    21                              20

Main difference between us is his belief that KP will lose up to 3 seats.  It is true that KP seems to be freaking out about at least 2 3- member districts where they feel they will squeezed out by a combination of LDP JCP CDP and TPFA depending on the seat.  Of course they have this freak-out all the time before the election which usually has the effect of pulling into LDP and/or JRP tactical votes and often pushing them well above the threshold to win.  I never bought it in previous elections and I will not buy it now.

He also points out that CDP and JCP are benefiting from their tactical alliance and will win a bunch of seats they missed out on in 2017 due to the strength of TPFA and the DP JCP vote split.