Japan 2021 Tokyo Metropolitan assembly elections (July) and Lower House Election Oct 31st

[jaichind]

The COVID-19 surge is abating a bit but the Suga cabinet approval is still slowing going down.  I expect it to start rising in July when the COVID-19 situation will become better and the Olympics starts.  Of course if the Tokyo Metropolitan assembly elections goes worse for the LDP that expected that might create a viscus  cycle  of poor poll numbers of Suga.

[jaichind]

静岡(Shizuoka) governor election next weekend.   This will be the last significant election before the July 4th Tokyo Metropolitan election.  

The pro-Opposition  静岡(Shizuoka) governor will be running for a 4th term in a 1-on-1 battle with a pro-LDP candidate.  The pro-Opposition governor was first election in 2009, the anti-LDP wave year, as a the pro-DPJ candidate in a 3 way race between with a pro-LDP candidate and a DPJ right wing rebel.  The DPJ right wing rebel drew enough of the LDP vote in an anti-LDP year for him to win.  He won re-election in 2013 despite JCP running and in 2017 with implicit JCP support against pro-LDP candidates.  Incumbent governors tend to win re-elections so he was able to win re-election despite the national environment shifting rightward since 2009.

This time around the pro-Opposition incumbent is explicitly back by the JCP along with CDP-DPP.  The pro-LDP candidate is an Upper House LDP MP that who resigned his seat to run.  His term ends in 2022 anyway so he is not giving up much in this uphill race.  It is clear that the pro-Opposition incumbent will win and polls also seems to agree that he will win by a good margin.
 

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

https://www.asahi.com/articles/ASP5K633LP5KUTFK01J.html

PNHK changes its name from "NHKから自国民を守る党" or Party that Protects People from the NHK to "古い政党から国民を守る党" or "The Party that Protects the People from Old Political Parties." Most media outlets labels them as  "古" or Old just like 自由民主党(LDP) is called "自" or Freedom.  I guess PNHK (which I assume now has to be called POPP) wants to expand its appeal to not just anti-NHK put as a full blown anti-establishment party.

Political earthquake here.

[jaichind]

3 weeks out my current Tokyo Metropolitan seat projection

LDP             45
KP              23
TPFA           15
CDP            23
Minor Left     2
TSN             2
JCP            17

Both LDP and TPFA have nominated a bunch of candidates and both risk over-nomination.  JRP and  lot of Third pole parties are running which also adds to the risk of taking down LDP and TPFA candidates.  I am assuming that LDP and TPFA mostly avoid this problem with proper tactical voting where necessary.  Certainly the risk is greater for both LDP and TPFA, especially LDP, that these numbers might overestimate them.

This sort of result barely allows LDP to claim some sort of victory, or non-defeat, by winning a narrow LDP-KP majority.  If LDP falls to 40 or below then LDP-KP will fail to win a majority and will be a big blow to LDP.

[Lachi]

Opposition set to call the government's bluff and move a vote of no confidence after the government said that they would call an early election if one came up.

Of course, the government isn't actually going to call an early election, but I wonder if the government might have some concerns that the opposition is as coherent as it has been.

[jaichind]

More polls for 静岡(Shizuoka) governor election show that the pro-Opposition incumbent will in by a good margin over pro-LDP challenger this weekend.

[jaichind]

https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2021/06/ca065d4ceef9-regional-party-affiliated-with-tokyo-gov-seeks-no-spectator-olympics.html

"Regional party affiliated with Tokyo gov. seeks no-spectator Olympics"

TPFA makes its move by demanding that the Tokyo Olympics be held without spectators.  TPFA knows that the LDP is counting on a successful Olympics to boost its chances in a Lower House election in Sept or Oct so LDP is unlikely to back a move to not have spectators.  But know this position has a certain level of support in the Tokyo population TPFA comes out with this position to distinguish itself from LDP.

[jaichind]

Latest JX PR voting intentions poll

LDP   29.1%（-0.8）
KP      6.3%（+1.2）
JRP     6.9%（-1.2）
DPP    1.7%（-0.3）
CDP   21.1%（+1.0）
RS   　1.8%（-0.4）
SDP    0.9%（-0.8）
JCP    9.4%（+0.3)

LDP continues to lose ground while CDP continues to gain ground.

[jaichind]

JX poll of Tokyo has

Koike Approval/Disapproval 51.5/37.9 (not great numbers for Koike)

Voting intention for Tokyo Metropolitan assembly elections


LDP    19.4
KP        6.2
TPFA     5.6
DPP      1.0
CDP    11.3
RS        0.8
TSN      1.0
JCP       8.9

Much better relative numbers for LDP compared to other polls.  TPFA at 5.6 is a disaster given how many candidates they nominated and if true they face wipeout in the 4- member and above districts due to over nomination.   At this stage given the number of candidates either LDP or TPFA over-nominated.  Both have to, by definition, over-nominate in order to capture the LDP-TPFA swing voter with any reduction in candidates showing lack of confidence it will do well and as a result be on the losing end of anti-CDP or anti-JCP tactical voting.  This poll seems to indicate that it is the TPFA that has over-nominated.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

How likely is it the result in Tokyo Assembly elections affects in a material way how the Olympics are handled?

[jaichind]

How likely is it the result in Tokyo Assembly elections affects in a material way how the Olympics are handled?

I doubt it.  Only scenario is LDP does disastrously so the Suga regime in a attempt to stall a general election defeat doubles down on an more open implantation of the Olympics in face of another COVID surge in an attempt to gamble on a successful Olympics to boast LDP's (and his own chances.)  A bunch of its and unlikely for all these things to take place.

[jaichind]

Reading through the various Tokyo Metropolitan assembly election projections on a per district basis I can construct a CW  projection of seat by low - medium - high basis.
 

                    low      medium       high
LDP               38          43             46
KP                 21          23             23
JRP                 0            1               1
TPFA              11          15             23
CDP               21          24             24
Minor Left        1            2               2
TSN                1            2               2
JCP               15           17             20

On the whole LDP TPFA and JCP have a bunch of marginal seats against each other with TPFA having the greatest volatility of possible results followed by LDP.  TPFA and LDP have both nominated a lot of candidates.  LDP nominated 60 candidates versus 59 in 2013 which was a LDP landslide year for example. This means the distribution of the LDP and TPFA vote in the multi-member districts with the multiple LDP and TPFA candidate can lead to a wide distribution of results.  In several 3- member districts JCP and TPFA are also at the margins of winning the seat which also adds to the volatility in results.

The biggest source of LDP gains are the 2- member districts.  In 2017 LDP won only 6 out of the 30 seats available since the KP vote went to back pro-TPFA forces.  This time around with the KP vote behind the LDP the LDP is for sure going to win 15 out of the 30 seats which is a automatic 9 seats gain for LDP relative to 2017.

[jaichind]

Asahi did a survey for Tokyo Metropolitan assembly elections

https://news.yahoo.co.jp/articles/6f5a0414c3bfe47b2df5312f752d8d09fbb14353?page=1

and had

LDP   48-55
KP     14-23
JRP      1-1
TPFA    6-19
CDP   20-26
JCP    17-23

LDP much stronger and TPFA much weaker than CW.  I am very skeptical of the KP 14-23.  I cannot see KP losing any seats out of the 23 they are contesting and for sure there is zero chance of them falling below 20 let alone 14.  This means the seat projections for the other parties should be at the lower range of what is given since KP will be at 23 maybe 22.

[jaichind]

静岡(Shizuoka) governor election voting done.  NHK called the race for United Opposition incumbent as soon as the poll closed.

[jaichind]

https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2021/06/deb0f7a6482f-urgent-all-olympic-live-viewing-events-in-tokyo-to-be-canceled-koike.html

"Tokyo cancels all Olympic public viewing events due to COVID" - Koike

if there is no live viewing of events then the Olympics might as well be held in the South Pole since all viewing will be virtual and online anyway.

This pretty much sets up the upcoming battle in Tokyo Metropolitan assembly elections as Suga/LDP (reopen the country and the economy, make Olympics a success) vs Koike/TPFA (avoid another COVID spike).   

[jaichind]

静岡(Shizuoka) governor election NHK exit polls seems to indicate something like 62-38 victory for the United Opposition incumbent over the pro-LDP candidate (who was a member of the Upper House before resigning to run)

[jaichind]

Local 静岡(Shizuoka) media exit poll has the United Opposition incumbent winning 44.5% of the LDP vote, 48.2% of the KP vote (KP did not explicitly endorse pro-LDP candidate or else it will be something like 30/70 vs 50/50) and along with winning nearly 90% of the CDP and JCP vote explains the landslide victory.


The 62/38 win (might be bigger if these exit polls are correct) is a small swing away from LDP relative to 2017 which is a problem since the candidate quality for the LDP this time around is higher.  In 2017 the pro-LDP candidate was a non-political sports celerity personality which was not expected to mobilize the LDP vote.   Having a sitting Upper House LDP MP run was suppose to keep this race close.  In fact the LDP will most likely see a negative swing.

[jaichind]

静岡(Shizuoka) governor election (45% of the vote counted)

United Opposition incumbent  57.4%
pro-LDP                                42.6%

The heavy urban areas are not in yet and the current count skew rural areas so the gap will grow from here.

[jaichind]

静岡(Shizuoka) governor election (89% of the vote counted)

United Opposition incumbent  59.3%
pro-LDP                                40.7%

Pro-LDP candidate outperforming exit polls a bit.  As is it right now these results are a replica of 2017 results.  Still some more anti-LDP urban areas votes to come though.

[jaichind]

静岡(Shizuoka) governor election (all votes counted)

United Opposition incumbent  60.5%
pro-LDP                                39.5%

pro-LDP candidate slightly outperforms exit polls with a somewhat better than expected performance in urban areas.  Slight swing away from LDP relative to 2017 results.

[jaichind]

There was also a 静岡(Shizuoka) competitive assembly by-election that went against the LDP.  A sitting LDP MLA resigned his prefecture assembly ran in a Lower House 静岡(Shizuoka) 4th district by-election last year and was elected.   Due to COVID-19 the by-election for his seat was not until now.

In 2019 in this 4-member district it was

LDP                   32.19%  (elected and resigned in 2020)
KP                     20.83%  (elected)
Ind-Opposition   19.87%   (elected)
DPP                   15.03%   (elected)
CDP                   12.08%

In the last 2 cycles the JCP choose not to run here due to a track record of not doing well and instead shifted their vote to the Center-Left Opposition to keep this district 1 LDP 1 KP and 2 Center-Left.

For this by-election time around CDP DPP and JCP united around one common opposition candidate while the LDP was split between two aspirants from two different factions.   The LDP solution for this split was to allow both to run as independents and the winner be retroactively nominated by the LDP.  This was not to be as the United Opposition candidate won in a landslide.

United Opposition      58.0%  (elected)
Ind-LDP                    34.1%
Ind-LDP                      7.9%

It seems part of the KP vote with their candidate not on the ballot did not vote LDP and gone over to the United Opposition.   Even taking that into account there was a swing away from LDP which partly was helped by the 静岡(Shizuoka) governor race that went against the LDP by a large margin.  Still, losing a by-election by a landslide in a swing prefecture district is not good news for LDP.

[Lachi]

LDP have "leaked" (yeah right, "leaked") their own "internal seat projection"
LDP 51
CDP 22
JCP 20
Komei 18 (doubt)
TFP 12
NET 1
Ishin 1
IND 2

[jaichind]

LDP have "leaked" (yeah right, "leaked") their own "internal seat projection"
LDP 51
CDP 22
JCP 20
Komei 18 (doubt)
TFP 12
NET 1
Ishin 1
IND 2

I saw that.  I suspect their "source" is the same source as the Asahi survey.  Both have this absurd notion that KP could be in the teens in terms of seats.  KP did come out with their own survey saying that KP will lose a bunch of seats but they do this almost every election cycle to push up their turnout to near 100%.

Asahi did a survey for Tokyo Metropolitan assembly elections

https://news.yahoo.co.jp/articles/6f5a0414c3bfe47b2df5312f752d8d09fbb14353?page=1

and had

LDP   48-55
KP     14-23
JRP      1-1
TPFA    6-19
CDP   20-26
JCP    17-23

LDP much stronger and TPFA much weaker than CW.  I am very skeptical of the KP 14-23.  I cannot see KP losing any seats out of the 23 they are contesting and for sure there is zero chance of them falling below 20 let alone 14.  This means the seat projections for the other parties should be at the lower range of what is given since KP will be at 23 maybe 22.

[jaichind]

Latest JX poll of Tokyo has

LDP    18.6 (-0.8 )
KP        6.1 (-0.1)
TPFA     6.9 (+1.3)
DPP      0.4 (-0.6)
CDP    10.4 (-0.9)
RS        1.4 (+0.6)
TSN      0.6 (-0.4)
JCP     10.0 (+1.1)

TPFA and JCP gaining ground while LDP and CDP losing ground

[jaichind]

https://sg.news.yahoo.com/tokyo-governor-koike-taking-break-111533816.html

"Tokyo Governor Koike taking break due to fatigue, reportedly in hospital"