Japan 2021 Tokyo Metropolitan assembly elections (July) and Lower House Election Oct 31st

[jaichind]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/apr/15/cancelling-tokyo-olympics-remains-an-option-top-japanese-politician-2020

"Cancelling Tokyo Olympics ‘remains an option’ says top Japanese politician"

LDP General Secretary and leader of the Nikai faction 二階俊博(Nikai Toshihiro) indicated that it is possible that the Olympics might get cancelled due to COVID-19.  二階俊博(Nikai Toshihiro) was a the key organizer of Suga's LDP Prez election victory and seen as a key ally of Suga.  This statement seems to be a surprise but could be a proxy war between 二階俊博(Nikai Toshihiro) and Minister for Administrative Reform & Regulatory Reform 河野太郎(Kōno Tarō) who indicated recently that the Olympics should be held as planned.   河野太郎(Kōno Tarō)  is seen as a rival to Suga in case Suga stumbles.

[jaichind]

中国新聞(Chugoku Shimbun) poll on  広島(Hiroshima) Upper House by-election has the united opposition candidate slightly ahead of the LDP candidate with a large number of undecided.  The LDP candidate only has 30% of the KP vote which is the main reason why he is behind.

https://www.chugoku-np.co.jp/column/article/article.php?comment_id=745974&comment_sub_id=0&category_id=1301


The same poll has the party support in 広島(Hiroshima) to be

LDP    39.5  -> 60% of whom back LDP candidate
KP       6.4  -> 30% of whom back LDP candidate
PNHK   2.9
JRP      3.8
DPP     3.2
CDP   12.8  -> 60% of whom back united opposition candidate
RS       2.3
SDP     0.8
JCP     2.6  -> 40% of whom back united opposition candidate
Ind.   16.8 -> 30% of whom back united opposition candidate

Which shows a serious erosion of LDP support and higher level of discontent given the 2.9 support for anti-establishment PNHK

[jaichind]

富山市(Toyama City) mayor election for open seat today.  富山(Toyama) is one of the strongest pro-LDP prefectures out there and the recent trend has been for the JRP to become the main opposition to LDP.  JRP in 富山(Toyama) is really just a LDP splinter in light of how weak the center-left opposition is here.

Exit poll has LDP-KP candidate around 51%, JRP around 38%, local center-left party and JCP both at around 5-6%.  In the urban areas of 富山市(Toyama City) it seems to be neck-to-neck between the LDP-KP candidate and JRP candidate.  Exit polls also show that a majority of JCP voters voted JRP as the main anti-LDP alternative versus the JCP candidate.

The JRP candidate is a former JRP MP and now the leader of the 富山(Toyama) JRP.  He has a LDP background and comes from a family of LDP local legislators and was a LDP MLA in the 富山(Toyama) prefecture assembly when he bolted from LDP in 2011 and joined JRP in 2012 to run in the Lower House elections.   He getting the LDP-KP vote share to be barely above 50% is actually quite an accomplishment given how strong LDP is in 富山(Toyama).  

[jaichind]

Another batch of 長野(Nagano) poll for Upper House by-election with united opposition CDP candidate well ahead of LDP-KP candidate.  This election is pretty much over.

[jaichind]

First 北海道(Hokkaido) 2nd district by-election polls by 共同通信(Kyodo News),  読売新聞(Yomiuri Shimbun), 朝日新聞(Asahi Shimbun).  As expected, they show a commanding lead for the united opposition candidate with the anti-center left vote split between two pro-LDP independents and JRP.  This will be a landslide victory by the united opposition.

[jaichind]

More  広島(Hiroshima) Upper House by-election polls.  After 中国新聞(Chugoku Shimbun)  poll showed united opposition slightly ahead of LDP-KP,  共同通信(Kyodo News) poll has LDP-KP slight ahead of united opposition while 読売新聞(Yomiuri Shimbun) poll has united opposition slightly ahead of LDP-KP as well as a 朝日新聞(Asahi Shimbun) poll.  Looks like this race is neck-to-neck.

[jaichind]

富山市(Toyama City) count (mostly done)

LDP-KP                 53.7%  (also backed by CDP-DPP)
JRP                      34.2%
JCP                        6.1%
local center left       6.1%

CDP-DPP decided that in a LDP-JRP race they rather support LDP and based on exit polls a bunch of CDP-DPP voters voted LDP-KP while the JCP voter, it seems, mostly tactically voted for JRP.

[jaichind]

In addition to the 3 by-elections on April 25 next week there will also be an election for mayor of 名古屋市(Nagoya City) on the same day.

Here DPJ right wing splinter TCJ leader 河村 たかし(Kawamura Takashi) will be running for re-election against an grand alliance of LDP-KP-CDP-DPP with de facto support of JCP.

河村 たかし(Kawamura Takashi) has a DSP (old SPJ right wing splinter) background and spent some time in LDP.  After 1993 he was aligned with the Osawa parties such as JNP NFP and LP before joining DPJ as part of the LP merger into DPJ.  He was a JNP NFP and DPJ MP during this period.    In 2009 he was elected as mayor of 名古屋市(Nagoya City) as the DPJ candidate but after getting elected split from DPJ by forming his own 愛知(Aichi) regional center-right TCJ .  Since then he has been an ally of JRP as he was re-elected as mayor of  名古屋市(Nagoya City)  in 2011 2013 and 2017 as TCJ became the dominate party in  名古屋市(Nagoya City)  local politics.

This time around LDP-KP-CDP-DPP seems determined to oust 河村 たかし(Kawamura Takashi) by forming an united front and also got JCP to tacitly back this grand alliance by not running a candidate.  Most likely 河村 たかし(Kawamura Takashi) will be re-elected despite this.

[jaichind]

Note about all these media polls for the 3 by-elections.  For the major media houses like 読売新聞(Yomiuri Shimbun), 朝日新聞(Asahi Shimbun), and 共同通信(Kyodo News) their polls seems to have been done at the exact same time.  It is almost certain, like polls done during national elections, these media houses share expenses to do one large poll with a large number of voters polled to get a common poll of raw data.   Then each media house use its own internal weighting as well as local stringer information to construct the result of the published poll. 

So for 広島(Hiroshima) Upper House by-election polls where most media houses have the united opposition head but by different amount and one had the LDP-KP candidate ahead note that these "polls" use the same underlying raw date and these poll differences are more from how each media house choose to weight the responses.

[jaichind]

Just to show how powerful LDP is in 富山市(Toyama City) there was an election for city council for 富山市(Toyama City) on the same day as the vote for mayor.  48 candidate ran for 38 seats on a single list. Since this is not FPTP the vote would be more reflexive strength of parties at the local level.  The result was once again total domination by LDP.  I included rebels and independents aligned to the party in the party result
 
          Candidate    Win   Vote share
LDP         28            26     65.05%
KP            4              4      9.58%
PNHK        1              0      0.80%
JRP           4              1      6.93%
DPP          3              2      5.19%
CDP          4              3      6.03%
JCP           3              2      6.10%
Ind.          1              0      0.34%

So at the city council level the JRP voter mostly vote LDP which makes sense since the 富山(Toyama) JRP is really just a LDP splinter.   Since the LDP is really the only game in town new local political talent tend to start their career as LDP which adds to the LDP edge in elections where name recognition is critical.

[jaichind]

名古屋市(Nagoya City) mayor polls

読売新聞(Yomiuri Shimbun) has TCJ incumbent 河村 たかし(Kawamura Takashi) ahead of grand alliance candidate LDP-KP-CDP-DPP while  共同通信(Kyodo News) poll has it neck-to-neck with TCJ incumbent 河村 たかし(Kawamura Takashi) slightly ahead.  I suspect these are the same poll with the same raw data with these two media houses doing their own separate weighting of crosstabs to get their different poll results.

[xelas81]

http://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/14332985
https://ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E6%84%9B%E7%9F%A5%E7%9C%8C%E7%9F%A5%E4%BA%8B%E3%83%AA%E3%82%B3%E3%83%BC%E3%83%AB%E4%B8%8D%E6%AD%A3%E7%BD%B2%E5%90%8D

Mayor of Nagoya was part of movement to recall the Governor of Aichi Prefecture and most signatures for the recall turned out be forged.

[jaichind]

http://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/14332985
https://ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E6%84%9B%E7%9F%A5%E7%9C%8C%E7%9F%A5%E4%BA%8B%E3%83%AA%E3%82%B3%E3%83%BC%E3%83%AB%E4%B8%8D%E6%AD%A3%E7%BD%B2%E5%90%8D

Mayor of Nagoya was part of movement to recall the Governor of Aichi Prefecture and most signatures for the recall turned out be forged.

I only read about this recall attempt only a couple of days ago.  The entire episode is bizarre.  The governor of 愛知(Aichi) 大村 秀章(Ōmura Hideaki) was a LDP MP before he was elected governor in 2011 with the support of TCJ leader and 名古屋市(Nagoya City) mayor 河村 たかし(Kawamura Takashi).  In fact right after being elected 大村 秀章(Ōmura Hideaki)  bolted from LDP and formed his own regional splinter ATJ which was allied with TCJ in the 2011 愛知(Aichi) prefecture elections.  The two parties together won almost 24% of the vote and 18 out of 103 seats dealing a big blow the the DPJ.

The two continued to be allies even as both TCJ and ATJ stagnated in  愛知(Aichi) prefecture politics and as far as I know are still allies until I read about this recall attempt.

I still think despite this 名古屋市(Nagoya City) TCJ mayor 河村 たかし(Kawamura Takashi) will win re-election.  The fact that all mainstream parties (LDP KP CDP DPP JCP) are all ganged up against him if anything increase his chances of re-election.

[jaichind]

The poll that shows 名古屋市(Nagoya City) TCJ mayor 河村 たかし(Kawamura Takashi) ahead of LDP-KP-CDP-DPP-JCP has 河村 たかし(Kawamura Takashi) winning the LDP vote

The vote breakdown seems to

                                                  LDP     KP     CDP      JCP        Ind.   
河村 たかし(Kawamura Takashi)      50%            30%                   40%
LDP-KP-CDP-DPP-JCP                   30%   60%   50%     60%       20%

So 河村 たかし(Kawamura Takashi) is ahead because the LDP vote is breaking his way despite the common grand alliance candidate is from the LDP.

This is very similar to the 2015 and 2019 大阪(Osaka) governor  and 大阪市(Osaka City) mayor elections where the JRP face a grand alliance LDP-Center Left-JCP candidate from the LDP but JRP won in a landslide by carrying the LDP vote.   It seems we are most likely headed to this type of result in the 名古屋市(Nagoya City) mayor race on April 25th.

[jaichind]

Latest 広島(Hiroshima) Upper House by-election poll by local media channel TSS still have united opposition candidate slightly ahead of LDP.  The LDP candidate only has 70% of LDP and KP supporter support.  How disillusioned LDP and KP voters over the vote buying scandal that led to the by-election in the first place will decide this election.

https://www.tss-tv.co.jp/tssnews/000009614.html

[jaichind]

Just to reinforce the hereditary nature of the 長野(Nagano) Upper house by-election.  The old DPP turned CDP MP was 羽田雄一郎(Hata Yūichirō) who passed away was the son of old JRP (Japan Renewal Party) PM 羽田孜(Hata Tsutomu).  一郎(Yūichirō) of  羽田雄一郎(Hata Yūichirō) means "eldest son."  So the election of the 羽田雄一郎(Hata Yūichirō) can be seen as the succession to the political house of 羽田(Hata).  Now the CDP candidate to replace  羽田雄一郎(Hata Yūichirō) in the by-election is his brother 羽田次郎(Hata Jirō) where 次郎(Jirō) means "second son."  So the line of hereditary succession  is made clear even in the names of the candidates.  The is the ways things work with the various LDP political dynasties but also extends to the opposition as well. Especially when 羽田孜(Hata Tsutomu) himself was from the LDP before he bolted along with Ozawa from LDP in 1993.

[jaichind]

My prediction for the 4 races on Sunday

北海道(Hokkaido) 2nd district Lower House by-election
CDP                  52.8% (backed by DPP-SDP-JCP)
Pro-LDP Ind.      19.7%
JRP                   13.4%
Pro LDP Ind.       9.6%

長野(Nagano) Upper House by-election
CDP                 55.2% (backed by DPP-SDP-JCP)
LDP                 41.8% (backed by KP)

広島(Hiroshima) Upper House by-election
United Oppn     47.4% (backed by CDP-DPP-SDP implicit JCP support)
LDP                 44.9% (backed by KP)

名古屋市 (Nagoya City) mayor election
TCJ                  51.6%
Grand Alliance  45.0% (backed by LDP-KP-CDP-DPP implicit JCP support)

0-4 for LDP.

[Logical]

If the LDP lose badly today will Suga pull the trigger on early elections to pre-empt his rivals?

[jaichind]

If the LDP lose badly today will Suga pull the trigger on early elections to pre-empt his rivals?

That would be the logical course of action: namely get a general election and win before the Sept 2021 LDP Prez race.  In this case that might not be an option given the Tokyo Olympics coming up and more importantly there is a current surge of COVID-19 infections.  An election now would be leave Suga accused by the opposition of putting his political career ahead of lives of ordinary Japanese.  I am sure Suga would have preferred a winter 2020 lower house election after he took over where you would have won in a landslide by a greater margin than 2017 but that option was not available for the same reason.

It seems unless COVID-19 speared suddenly falls off the cliff by May in which case Suga could try for a general election along with the Tokyo Prefecture election in early July, something the KP will fight tooth and nail against, he will have to accept a Fall 2021 general election.

[jaichind]

As of 6pm 北海道(Hokkaido) 2nd district turnout is lower by over 15% than at this time in 2017 while the Upper House by-elections are lower by around 5%-6% than the very low 2019 turnout election at the same time.  Note this does not include early voting which I am sure is down is well relative to 2017 and 2019 respectively.  On paper such low turnout helps LDP.  In this case it is just as likely that the lower turnout is more about lower LDP-KP turnout.

[jaichind]

Voting ends. 北海道(Hokkaido) 2nd district and 長野(Nagano) Upper House immediately called for CDP by NHK. 
 

[jaichind]

Initial exit poll also has United Opposition with a slight lead in 広島(Hiroshima) Upper House by-election and also TCJ with a slight lead in 名古屋市 (Nagoya City) mayor election

[jaichind]

Exit poll for 名古屋市 (Nagoya City) mayor election looks a lot like my prediction with TCJ winning with slightly more than 50% of the vote.

[jaichind]

広島(Hiroshima) Upper House by-election exit poll has United Opposition beating LDP by something like 50-45.  Close to my prediction but it seems I might have overestimated the minor candidates a bit.

[jaichind]

RCC exit poll for 広島(Hiroshima) Upper House by-election has it United Opposition ahead 51-42 and have called the race for United Opposition.  Suga long night begins.