Japan 2021 Tokyo Metropolitan assembly elections (July) and Lower House Election Oct 31st

[jaichind]

秋田(Akita) governor count pretty much done

pro-LDP incumbent      49.5%
pro-DPP center-right    41.1%
JCP                              5.0%
pro-wind power ind.      4.4%

pro-LDP incumbent actually won 49.5% in  秋田市(Akita City) which bodes well for the pro-LDP incumbent mayor running for re-election there.

Despite the pro-LDP incumbent victory this is a big swing away from LDP since 2017.  The 2017  秋田(Akita) governor result was

pro-LDP incumbent       67.8%
Center-Left Opposition  25.0%
JCP                               7.1%

The Center-Left Opposition candidate was actually a former Center-Left Opposition governor that retired in 2009 that was drafted to take on the pro-LDP incumbent.  This Center-Left Opposition governor is pretty much the father of a good part of  CDP in 秋田(Akita).   His son being a CDP 秋田(Akita)  Lower House MP and his adopted daughter if a pro-CDP 秋田(Akita) Upper House MP.  Even someone of his stature only got 25% running against the incumbent. 

This time around the pro-LDP incumbent was pushed below 50%.

[jaichind]

秋田市(Akita City) mayor race count is 43% done and it is  3 way virtual tie between pro-LDP incumbent, pro-CDP opposition candidate, and pro-environmental grassroots independent. 

[jaichind]

秋田市(Akita City) mayor race count done.  pro-LDP incumbent wins

pro-LDP incumbent       45.9%
pro-CDP opposition       39.7%
pro-environmental ind.  14.3%

which is quite a large swing against the LDP from 2017 when it was

pro-LDP incumbent       65.0%
united opposition          35.0%

[jaichind]

Looking the Tokyo prefecture election candidate list so far




It seems TFPA caucus is mostly holding together.

Out of the 55 TPFA MLA elected in 2017:
46 have been re-nominated as TPFA
5 are running at TPFA rebels
1 will run for JRP
1 will (it seems) retire
1 joined JRP in 2019 and got elected to the Upper House
1 ran for and got elected as Ward Head earlier this year

Out of the 6 2017 TPFA candidates that did not win:
1 will run as TPFA rebel
2 will run as CDP
rest unknown

JCP and KP as cadre parties have mostly re-nominated their 2017 winners but a few are getting rotated out by other party members

Out of the 5 DP MLA elected in 2017:
4 have joined CDP and will run as CDP
1 have joined DPP and will run in the Lower House elections

Most 2017 DP losers are not re-nominated by CDP

Almost all the 23 LDP MLA elected in 2017 will be re-nominated as well as a bunch of 2017 LDP candidates that came close to winning. 

All in all TPFA and LDP will mostly run the same cast of candidates as 2017, KP and JCP will do the same with some candidates rotation.  It is CDP that will take advantage of this election to rotate in a bunch of new faces.

[jaichind]

Suga cabinet approval approaching net even


PR voting intention

Green - LDP
Blue - CDP
Orange - KP
Red - CDP
Green - JRP

LDP+KP around 45% which implies an election LDP+KP PR of 48%-49% which is around what it was in 2014.  Suga's LDP slowing climbing out of its nosedive

[jaichind]

https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2021/04/d335fe6d2a60-suga-says-snap-election-before-end-of-september-a-possibility.html

"Japan PM Suga says snap election before end of September "a possibility""

In theory the Lower House election is not due until Oct 2021.  Suga is up for re-election as LDP Prez in Sept 2021 (he was elected to serve out Abe's 3 year term in 2020).  I suspect he is saying this to keep his enemies in LDP in line.

[jaichind]

There will be 3 by-elections April 25.  None of them are looking good for the LDP.

First there is Lower House 北海道(Hokkaido) 2nd district.  Here the LDP incumbent had to resign due to a scandal.  The LDP-KP choose not to run a candidate in the by-election to take responsibility for the scandal.  CDP-DPP-JCP are running a joint CDP candidate who has a LDP background decades ago but has since spent time in DPJ JRP HP and now CDP.)  JRP will also run as well as two pro-LDP independents hoping to get some of the LDP-KP vote.  Given the fact that LDP is not running anyone the LDP turnout to be low and with the CDP-DPP-JCP united the CDP candidate will win for sure with what remains of the LDP vote being split.

Charts point out how the JRP and two pro-LDP independents will try to get the LDP-KP vote while the CDP-DPP-JCP joint candidate will rope in the Center-Left and JCP vote.
 

The bad news for the LDP is that once the CDP candidate wins in the by-election it means he will most likely be the favorite to win in the general election as the incumbent while  the LDP will have to put in someone new and most likely deal with a JRP candidate that is more likely to split the LDP vote.


Then there is 長野(Nagano) Upper House by-election.  The CDP incumbent (son of late JRP (Japan Renewal Party) PM Hata of 1993) died late last year due to COVID-19.  He was elected in 2019 as DPP but joined CDP as part of the CDP-DPP merger in 2020.  CDP will run his brother and also son of late PM Hata and given 長野(Nagano) has an anti-LDP lean and the sympathy factor the CDP is for sure to win over LDP especially with JCP backing CDP.


Lastly we have an Upper House by-election for 広島(Hiroshima).  Here the LDP incumbent who was elected in 2019 had to step down due to a vote buying scandal.  The LDP decided to field a candidate while the Center-Left Opposition and JCP will back a common pro-opposition independent. 広島(Hiroshima) has an heavy pro-LDP lean (LDP-KP won 50.8% and 55.2% of the PR vote in 2017 and 2019 which gives them a pro-LDP-KP lean of 5%-7%) so even with the scandal the LDP is expected to win.    But according to leaked LDP assessments
https://news.yahoo.co.jp/articles/1520b80d9083a9d5578f020efb042c1caca682f9?page=1

The LDP lead of 5% in March has already disappeared and are now most likely behind by 2%.  While part of this might be an attempt by the LDP to scare up LDP turnout the fact it had to do that means the race is close.  If the LDP loses this race it will be a huge setback for Suga.

Asahi chart pretty much saying the same thing I just posted.

[jaichind]

With LDP-KP alliance back on in Tokyo prefecture elections the threat of a LDP-KP landslide is real.  There are a bunch of opposition moves to try to counter this.  It seems CDP and JCP are working out alliances in the 1- and 2- seat districts to avoid both parties running candidates in them.  TSN most likely will be part of this alliance as well.   There are also similar alliance talks between JRP DPP and RS.  Rengo Union seems to be working on endorsing a series of candidates in TPFA DPP and CDP.  Basically all the TPFA incumbents that have a DPJ/DP background will mostly receive Rengo endorsement.

If so the election will most likely turn in to a rough 3 way battle of LDP-KP vs TPFA-JRP-DPP-RS vs CDP-TSN-JCP although I suspect TPFA will not have an understanding with JRP or RS but with DPP only.

[jaichind]

History of the last 3 Tokyo Prefecture elections

2009 was a relative DPJ (dark blue) landslide winning 54 seats.  2013 was a LDP (dark red) landslide by winning 59 seats while JCP (light blue) surged to 19 seats.  In 2017 the new TPFA (green) surged to 55 seats win alliance with KP (light red) while both LDP and DP collapsed.  JCP in 2017 also gained as LDP collapsed in a bunch of districts from the TPFA onslaught.  Of course no matter what KP always wins 23 seats.

The lesson is any party that has a massive surge tends to fall apart the next election (DPJ 2009 to 2013), LDP (2013 to 2017) and now it is the TPFA's turn.  They can win at best 20 seats this time and more likely around 15-17.

[jaichind]

A chart of 2012 JRP and YP Lower House MPs and what parties they ended up being with in 2014 2017 and now.  Both are non-LDP center-right parties.

JRP (Light green) was formed in 2012 with an 大阪(Osaka) LDP splinter along with a bunch of DPJ, YP and LDP rebels plus the LDP extreme right splinter SPJ.

YP(Orange) was formed in 2008 with a 栃木(Tochigi) LDP splinter along with a bunch of DPJ and LDP rebels.

By 2014 YP had split with the larger faction merging in JRP to JIP (still light blue) and the minority faction dissolved ahead of the 2014 elections.  This merger provoked the extreme right  wing of JRP (mostly ex-SPJ plus other LDP extreme right elements formed the extreme right FPG (light blue).   The 2014 elections mostly finished off FPG with most FPG members either retiring or joining (mostly rejoining) the LDP (deep red.)

In 2016 JIP split with those with the faction mostly made up of DPJ and YP background merging into DPJ to form DP while the original Osaka faction continuing as JRP (still light blue.)

By 2017 DP had split into HP (deep blue)and CDP (deep green).  Almost all DP members with JRP background went to HP while DP members with YP background were split evenly between HP and CDP.  Some (mostly those with JRP backgrounds) took advantage of this split to join (for many rejoin) LDP (deep red.)

After 2017 elections HP split with the majority faction became DPP (yellow).  In 2020 DPP split with the majority faction merging into CDP while a rump DPP remains.  Some DPP members with JRP or YP background choose to become pro-DPP independents instead of joining DPP or CDP.

If you look at the 2012 list of JRP lower house MPs, that that are still with JRP are mostly just to original 大阪(Osaka) core.  The rest have mostly moved to (or back) to LDP or CDP or DPP or pro-DPP independent or retirement.

[jaichind]

毎日新聞 (Mainichi Shimbun) first survey of Upper House by-election for 広島(Hiroshima) has the united opposition candidate ahead of the LDP-KP candidate.  This will be a big blow to Suga if the LDP loses here.
https://mainichi.jp/articles/20210411/k00/00m/010/014000c

[jaichind]

A 信濃毎日新聞 (Shinano Mainichi Shimbun) (the local 長野(Nagano) branch of the Mainichi mediahouse) poll for 長野(Nagano) for Upper House by-election has the united opposition ahead and the scale of his lead growing from an earlier poll in late March.



With the LDP with no candidate 北海道(Hokkaido) 2nd district Lower House by-election and the pro-LDP vote split between JRP and two pro-LDP independents the united opposition candidate is certain to win.

Suga now faces a 0-3 in the April 25th by-elections.  The pressure from his rivals in LDP will intensity if this is to take place.  This scenario is getting more and more likely as another COVID-19 wave is hitting Japan.

[jaichind]

Exit polls for 宝塚市(Takarazuka City)  (in 兵庫(Hyōgo))mayor race shows a shock defeat for LDP which is being pushed into 3rd place. 

宝塚市(Takarazuka City) is actually pretty close to 大阪(Osaka).   兵庫(Hyōgo) has historically had a anti-LDP lean but that changed in 2012 when the rise of JRP in neighboring 大阪(Osaka) have led JRP to eat into the center-left opposition vote share leading to LDP landslides over an evenly split non-JCP anti-LDP vote between the center-left and JRP.

This time around the LDP is getting the short end of the stick with exit polls showing a neck-to-neck race between the united opposition candidate (with JCP support) (red) and JRP (orange) with the LDP candidate (blue) pushed to third with a center-left independent (green) running forth.

Exit poll shows that large blocs of LDP and KP vote defected either to the JRP or united opposition candidate while independents (which usually lean anti-LDP anyway) went heavy for the JRP or united opposition candidate.



The 2019 prefecture assembly results for 宝塚市(Takarazuka City) gives you a sense of the relative vote blocs here.

LDP          23.32%  (elected) (is also the LDP candidate for mayor this time around)
JCP          17.94%  (elected)
JRP          17.39%  (elected) (is also the JRP candidate for mayor this time around)
LDP rebel 16.37%
CDP         13.73%
Minor left   7.63%
PNHK         3.62%

If you cluster them by LDP-KP, JRP-PNHK, Center Left-JCP blocs you get

LDP-KP               39.69%
JRP-PNHK           21.01%
Center Left-JCP   39.31%

The Center Left-JCP bloc should mostly vote for the united opposition candidate with some votes being lost to the center left independent which you see in the exit polls.  The big shift from 2019 versus what we see in the exit polls is the shift of some of the LDP-KP vote toward JRP. 

If you go by exit polls it seems the LDP candidate would barely match what he got in the 2019 prefecture elections (23.32%) even though the LDP rebel also got 16.37% in the same election and SHOULD have voted mostly LDP this time around.

[jaichind]

福岡(Fukuoka) governor race has the LDP incumbent with an easy win over the JCP candidate.  Only question is will it be a 80/20 win (LDP physiological victory)  or a 65/35 type win (LDP physiological defeat).

[jaichind]

More  宝塚市(Takarazuka City) mayor exit polls by age

LDP (blue) won the youth vote but it seems the LDP-KP vote above the age of 20 defected to both the JRP (orange) and united opposition(red) candidates.  The center left independent (green) seems to have eaten into the center left-JCP youth and middle age vote.

[jaichind]

福岡(Fukuoka) governor count (12% in)

pro-LDP incumbent (backed by KP CDP SDP)      78.6%
JCP                                                                 21.4%

Usually if a pro-LDP incumbent is fairly non-partisan and popular the non-JCP opposition tends to back the incumbent for re-election.  That is what is taking place here today.

The count so far has a rural lean. I suspect it will end up being 75-25

[jaichind]

福岡(Fukuoka) governor count (78% in)

pro-LDP mainstream consensus candidate    79.9%
JCP                                                           20.1%

It seems the urban vote sent heavy against JCP.  So result will end up being more like 80/20

[jaichind]

宝塚市(Takarazuka City) mayor election count done.  United opposition candidate edges out JRP to win.

United Opposition (CDP-JCP)   35.81%  (elected)
JRP                                       33.78%
LDP                                       20.93%
Center-left Ind.                        9.48%



It seems that the LDP-KP base sensed the LDP candidate was behind and tactically voted for the JRP candidate to stop the united opposition candidate.  It almost worked but was not enough to stop the shock victory of the united opposition candidate.

United opposition candidate victory speech.  Also gives you a glimpse of what an election campaign headquarters looks like.  All the signs are all letters of support prayer paper from different supporters praying for victory. Pretty standard in all election campaign offices.

[jaichind]

https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2021/04/8cc7bf0d69af-breaking-news-60-discontent-with-progress-in-japans-covid-vaccine-rollout-poll.html

"60% dissatisfied with Japan's COVID-19 vaccine rollout: Kyodo poll"

Kyodo poll:

Suga cabinet approval/disapproval  44.0/36.1
Vaccine rollout approval/disapproval:  36.5/60.3

Tokyo Olympics:
Should be canceled: 39.2
Should be delayed: 32.8
Should continue in Summer of 2021 as planned: 24.5

[jaichind]

Political commentator Matsuda Kaoru (松田馨) came up with his current projections of a lower house election

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8jpsspndGAM

His projections seems very close to my own current projection

                       松田馨        Me
LDP                 239          241
KP                    26            30
pro-LDP Ind.                       4
JRP                  19             25
DPP                   7               8
pro-DPP Ind.                       3
CDP                144          131
pro-CDP Ind.                      2
RS                     0              3
SDP                                   2
JCP                 15             16

I think  Matsuda Kaoru (松田馨) is more optimistic on the CDP PR vote for CDP than I am to the detriment of KP, JRP and RS PR vote than I am.

One problem with his projection does mean the SDP plus various independents will win 15 seats which I find hard to believe.

[jaichind]

PR vote intentions.  Mostly stable with LDP (green) around 40 and CDP (light blue) around 14.  LDP+KP is around 45 so that implies if the election is held today I expect LDP-KP to be around 47-48 or so.

[jaichind]

So in the end there will be 6 candidates for the 北海道(Hokkaido) 2nd district Lower House by-election necessitated by the LDP incumbent being convicted of corruption.  The LDP choose not to nominate a candidate but there will be two pro-LDP independents.

The candidates are

CDP-DPP-SDP-JCP
JRP-NPD
pro-LDP Ind.
pro-LDP Ind.
PNHK
Ind. (Doctor running on increasing the number of hospital beds for COVID-19 surge)



The PNK and the independent doctor will capture the anti-establishment vote.  With the fall of the LDP incumbent over corruption this is a by-election the LDP will most likely not win anyway but with 2 pro-LDP independent in the mix along with JRP-NPD the CDP-DPP-SDP-JCP candidate is certain to win.

The CDP candidate (backed by DPP-SDP-JCP) is a famous party hopper 松木謙公(Matsuki Kenkō).  He was in the LDP in 1996 and wanted to run as LDP in 北海道(Hokkaido) 2nd district but the ticket was given to a rival. He than ran on LDP splinter LL  ticket and lost.  He tried again in 2000 in 北海道(Hokkaido) 2nd district  as an pro-LP independent and also lost.  He then joined LP and then DPJ when LP merged into DPJ.  In 2003 he ran for DPJ in 北海道(Hokkaido) 12nd district and lost but was elected in the PR slate on the best loser basis.  The was re-elected in 2005 for  北海道(Hokkaido) 12nd district again on the PR slate on best loser basis and then won outright in 2009 for  北海道(Hokkaido) 12nd district during the DPJ landslide.   As DPJ fell apart in 2012 he joined NPD and lost re-election for  北海道(Hokkaido) 12nd district.  He then joined JIP and went back to run in 北海道(Hokkaido) 2nd district as JIP in 2014 and was elected on the PR slate on the best loser basis.  In 2017 he joined HP and ran for re-election in 北海道(Hokkaido) 2nd district  but did not not do well enough to win on the PR slate.  He then joined DPP when the majority faction of HP split to form DPP split from HP and then joined CDP last year when the majority faction of DPP merged into CDP.  So now he will run in the by-election as CDP with backing from DPP-SDP-JCP.  He is now certain to win.

[jaichind]

Latest list of Tokyo Prefecture candidates




Some of TPFA rebels had joined CDP.  

So out of the 2017 55 TPFA winners

45 will run for TPFA
4 will run as TPFA rebel
2 will run for CDP
1 will run as a pro-CDP independent
1 will run as JRP
1 already ran for and became a ward head in early 2021
1 already defected to JRP and was elected to the Upper House in 2019


Out of the 2017 6 TPFA candidates that did not win

2 will run as CDP
1 defected to CDP and will run in the Lower House elections in 2021
3 will not run


Out of the 2017 23 LDP winners

19 will run as LDP
1 passed away
3 it seems will retire


Out of the 2017 37 LDP candidates that did not win

20 will run as LDP
1 was elected to the Lower House in 2017
the rest most likely will not run


Out of the 2017 23 KP winners

17 will run for KP
6 are swapped out for another KP candidate


Out of the 2017 19 JCP winners

16 will run for JCP
3 ware swapped out for another JCP candidate

Out of the 2017 18 JCP candidates that did not win

2 will run for JCP
rest will not run


If you look at the current and likely candidates district by district the number of candidates by party and my current guess on winners are:

                 Candidates      Win
LDP                 60             44
KP                   23             23
YP                     1               0  (remnant of the old YP)
JRP                   7               0
TPFA                51             17
TPFA rebel         4               1
DPP                  4               0
CDP                27             20
pro-CDP Ind      2               1
TSN                  3               2  (Local Tokyo Center-Left party)
pro-Green Ind    1              1
RS                    3               0
Minor Left          2              1
JCP                 31             17

LDP and TPFA both over nominated and will both lose out on seats they could have won.  CDP JCP and TPFA will all be around or a bit less than 20 seats.

[kaoras]

You have said that the Tokyo prefecture election is very prestigious. I know that this is probably a stretch but do you know what was the reaction to JCP placing second in the 1997 election?

[jaichind]

You have said that the Tokyo prefecture election is very prestigious. I know that this is probably a stretch but do you know what was the reaction to JCP placing second in the 1997 election?

I think it was a surprise but not a total surprise..  The 1996-1998 period was the peak of JCP strength.   In the 1996 Lower House elections JCP won 2 FPTP seats for a total of 26 out of 500 seats.  In the 1996 Lower House elections JCP plus the far Left NSP got around 18% in Tokyo in the FPTP vote where it was mostly a 4 way fight of LDP vs NFP vs DPJ vs JCP with the JCP cracking 20% in many seats.  

Given that it must not have been a total surprise in 1997 Tokyo prefecture elections that JCP won    21.33% of the vote where most of the seats are multi-member and there is less of a reason for tactical voting by pro-JCP voters.