India 2021 assembly elections - TN, Kerala, WB, Assam, and perhaps J&K

[jaichind]

It is pretty funny that AITC is now ahead 213 (NDTV and ECI) or 218(News18)  which is the largest AITC victory ever (2016 AITC won 211 seats) but  AITC CM Mamata Banerjee might have lost her own seat.  Really not a big deal. Even if she loses she can still become CM and then enter the WB assembly via a by-election.

[jaichind]

AITC CM Mamata Banerjee in her victory speech sorts of accepts that she might have lost Nandigram and also asks AITC not to celebrate due to COVID-19 surge which she blames on BJP.

[jaichind]

Assam vote share so far (I have to compute UPPL by hand) (NOTA not stripped out)

Virtual tie between the two blocs.  One cavnet is that there are a bunch of friendly fights between BJP and AGP as well as UPPL.  Same for INC and AIUDF.  The scale of NDA victory might not  be as large as one might assume by looking at the seat count.

NDA    44.57%
BJP       31.55%
AGP        8.18%
UPPL      4.84%

UPA     44.51%
INC       28.42%
AIUDF     9.83%
BPF         4.33%
CPM        1.03%
AGM        0.32%
CPI(ML)   0.28%
CPI         0.16%
RJD         0.14%

[jaichind]

Current count (NDTV)

Not much change from an hour ago

WB            Seats   vs 2019
AITC+         213        +50
BJP+             78        -43
LEFT/INC        0          -8  
OTH               1         +1  (GJM (Tamang faction))
Awaiting         2 (will not be counted today)

Tamil Nadu  Seats    vs 2016
DMK+          143       +45
AIADM           90        -46
MNM+             1         +1
AMMK+           0        
OTH

Kerela        Seats    vs 2016
LDF              98          +2    (NDTV mislabeled a pro-CPM independent as other, I am fixing here)
UDF             42          
NDA              0           -1
OTH              0           -1

Assam        Seats    vs 2019
NDA            77         -1
UPA             47         +5
AJP+             1         +1                  
OTH              1          -5  (AIUDF rebel)

Puducherry  Seats  vs 2016
NDA             14        +3
UPA               7         -4
AMMK+         0
OTH              2         +2   (1 AINRC rebel, 1 INC rebel)
Awaiting        7

[jaichind]

TN vote share with NOTA not stripped out

Did not change much.  DMK+ vote share lead is around 4.5% which should imply a 165-65 seat lead.  DMK+ right now are at 147 seats so I expect their seat share to increase

 
AIADMK+      40.54%
AIADMK          33.74%
PMK                 3.85%
BJP                  2.95%

DMK+         45.01%
DMK               37.56%
INC                 3.75%
CPI                 1.42%
VCK                1.14%
CPM                0.73%
IUML               0.41%

[jaichind]

It seems Mamata Banerjee will be taking ECI to the courts over what she believes to be rigging to prevent her from winning her own seat.  Funny how the leader of a party that won a landslide victory is claiming rigging.

[jaichind]

It is funny how CAA was suppose to help BJP win WB at the cost of being burned in Assam.  The opposite has taken place.  As mentioned before one of the main reason why this took place was the lack of a CM face for the BJP in WB and lack of a CM face for INC in Assam.

[jaichind]

Puducherry vote share so far (NOT not flited out) (no votes for 5 out of 30 seats)

A 6% vote share gap has emerged with 5 seat with no votes.  So far this does imply a solid to landslide victory for NDA.

NDA           43.48%
AINRC          28.74%
BJP              11.10%
AIADMK         3.64%

UPA           37.90%
INC             16.94%
DMK            17.39%
CPI               1.05%
VCK              0.00%
IND              2.52%

[jaichind]

Current count (NDTV)

Not much change from an hour ago

WB            Seats   vs 2019
AITC+         213        +50
BJP+             78        -43
LEFT/INC        0          -8  
OTH               1         +1  (GJM (Tamang faction))
Awaiting         2 (will not be counted today)

Tamil Nadu  Seats    vs 2016
DMK+          148       +50
AIADM           86        -50
MNM+             0        
AMMK+           0        
OTH

Kerela        Seats    vs 2016
LDF              97          +1    
UDF             43           +1
NDA              0           -1
OTH              0           -1

Assam        Seats    vs 2019
NDA            75         -3
UPA             49         +7
AJP+             1         +1                  
OTH              1          -5  (AIUDF rebel)

Puducherry  Seats  vs 2016
NDA             14        +3
UPA               7         -4
AMMK+         0
OTH              4         +3   (3 AINRC rebel, 1 INC rebel)
Awaiting        5

[jaichind]

Assam vote share so far (I have to compute UPPL and AGM by hand) (NOTA not stripped out)

Still virtual tie between the two blocs.  One cavnet is that there are a bunch of friendly fights between BJP and AGP as well as UPPL.  Same for INC and AIUDF.  The scale of NDA victory might not  be as large as one might assume by looking at the seat count.

NDA    44.34%
BJP       31.82%
AGP        8.19%
UPPL      4.33%

UPA     44.06%
INC       28.77%
AIUDF     9.78%
BPF         3.97%
CPM        0.82%
AGM        0.24%
CPI(ML)   0.22%
CPI         0.15%
RJD         0.11%

[jaichind]

Vote tally sheet for Nandigram.  AITC rebel BJP incumbant Suvendu Adhikari 109,573 to AITC CM Mamata Banerjee 107,937.  

[jaichind]

ECI rejects demands by AITC for recount in Nandigram.  More fuel on the fire.

[jaichind]

In WB, it seems both Left Front and INC are headed toward 0 seats.  There seems to be a couple of ISF candidates that have a fighting chance.  Before 1998 WB was a duopoly between Left Front and INC.  And now running in an alliance the two political formations is headed toward zero seats for both.

[jaichind]

When the two seats in WB that were halted due to death of a candidate hold their election it is possible AITC might break the WB record of single largest number of seats (INC in 1972 won 216 seats.)  AITC came close to breaking it in 2016 when it won 211 seats.  But this time AITC might break 216 seats.  Right now it has 214 or 215 seats depending on the source.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Thank you for the great coverage Jaichind! But can I ask why you are comparing the WB result to 2019, when the last regional election was 2016?

[jaichind]

TN vote share with NOTA not stripped out

DMK+ vote share lead increasing to something close to 5% which should imply a 170-60 seat lead.  DMK+ right now are at 149 seats so I expect their seat share to increase

 
AIADMK+      40.31%
AIADMK          33.73%
PMK                 3.81%
BJP                  2.77%

DMK+         45.14%
DMK               37.70%
INC                 3.73%
CPI                 1.48%
VCK                1.21%
CPM                0.68%
IUML               0.34%

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

time for an AITC member to resign to let Mamata to run in a by-election?

[jaichind]

Thank you for the great coverage Jaichind! But can I ask why you are comparing the WB result to 2019, when the last regional election was 2016?

Because in 2016 the results were

              Seats   Vote share
AITC+       211    45.71%

Left Front   33     27.64%  (tactical alliance with INC+)

INC+         44     12.52%  (tactical alliance with Left Front)

BJP+          6      10.78%

While 2019 LS elections were

               Seats    Vote share
AITC+       22          43.69%

Left Front    0           7.54%

INC            2           5.67%

BJP+        18          40.64%

So since 2016 the Left Front and INC vote shares have collapsed by 2019.  We know that the collapse have continued so performance in 2021 should be compared to 2019.  2016 is like a lifetime ago.

[jaichind]

time for an AITC member to resign to let Mamata to run in a by-election?

There are many options.  Usually an AITC MLA could resign and allow Mamata Banerjee to re-enter within 6 months.  Another way is for Mamata Banerjee to elected to the WB State Council (like an Upper House/Senate) and she can still be CM.  This is unusually but has been done before in many cases.  For example INC PM Manmohan Singh who was PM from 2004-2014 was in the RS the entire time and was never elected to LS.  Given  Mamata Banerjee's populist image I doubt she would do the State Council route.

[jaichind]

In WB It seems BJP underperformed its 2019 performance in heavy Muslim areas and matched its 2019 performance in heavy Hindu areas.  So there must have been massive Muslim consolidation behind AITC (and away from Left Front-INC-ISF) while there was not a counter Hindu consolidation from the AITC Hindu vote toward the BJP leading to an AITC landslide victory.

[jaichind]

Assam vote share so far (I have to compute UPPL and AGM by hand) (NOTA not stripped out)

NDA opening up a lead of 0.5%  One caveat  is that there are a bunch of friendly fights between BJP and AGP as well as UPPL.  Same for INC and AIUDF.  There are going to be a lot of wasted votes in the heavy Muslim seats so this sort of vote share gap should give BJP a good majority but not a massive one.  I suspect the current NDA seat count of 78 (on NDTV and ECI) will go down somewhat over time.

NDA    44.38%
BJP       31.99%
AGP        8.08%
UPPL      4.31%

UPA     43.86%
INC       29.42%
AIUDF     8.96%
BPF         4.16%
CPM        0.74%
AGM        0.19%
CPI(ML)   0.18%
CPI         0.12%
RJD         0.09%

[Continential]

What is the impact for the INC/BJP/AITC/other parties in this election? By impact, I mean what position is every major party in post-election.

[jaichind]

What is the impact for the INC/BJP/AITC/other parties in this election? By impact, I mean what position is every major party in post-election.

Using my INC and BJP best case scenario

Best case realistic scenario for BJP and INC for each state

BJP:
Assam: NDA solid majority
WB: BJP solid victory
TN: Narrow DMK+ victory
Kerala: Either hung assembly where BJP can wreak havoc on both LDF and UDF in terms of government formation OR LDF landslide where UDF is so damaged that some of the UDF Christian vote might migrate toward BJP in the future
Puducherry: Solid NDA victory but not such a landslide that AINRC could in theory get some INC MLAs to defect and dump BJP

INC
Assam: UPA narrow majority
WB: Hung assembly with INC giving AITC the majority which adds to INC leverage with AITC in the runup to 2024 LS elections
TN: Solid DMK+ victory but not a mega landslide where DMK could potentially dump INC and form an alliance with BJP
Kerala: Solid UDF majority
Puducherry: Narrow UPA victory

Assam: BJP winner, INC loser
WB: BJP loser, INC loser
TN: BJP loser, INC winner
Kerala: BJP loser, INC big loser
Puducherry: BJP loser, INC big loser

Net net, BJP minor loser, INC major loser.  AITC clearly a big winner and DMK a clear winner.  Other major anti-BJP parties like AAP RJD etc etc are winners since their ability to bargain with INC goes up.

[jaichind]

Current count (NDTV)

TN and Assam count shifting in the direction as implied by vote share calculation (toward DMK+ in TN and toward UPA in Assam)

WB            Seats   vs 2019
AITC+         208        +45
BJP+             82        -39
LEFT/INC        1          -7 (ISF) 
OTH               1         +1  (GJM (Tamang faction))
Awaiting         2 (will not be counted today)

Tamil Nadu  Seats    vs 2016
DMK+          155       +57
AIADM           78        -58
MNM+             0       
AMMK+           1         +1       
OTH

Kerela        Seats    vs 2016
LDF              99          +3   
UDF             41           -1
NDA              0           -1
OTH              0           -1

Assam        Seats    vs 2019
NDA            74         -4
UPA             50         +8
AJP+             1         +1                 
OTH              1          -5  (AIUDF rebel)

Puducherry  Seats  vs 2016
NDA             16        +4
UPA               9         -8
AMMK+         0
OTH              5         +4   (3 AINRC rebel, 1 INC rebel)

[jaichind]

Looks like in Assam BFP ended up winning 4 seats, a total underperformance but not a disaster.