India 2021 assembly elections - TN, Kerala, WB, Assam, and perhaps J&K

[jaichind]

Looks like my gut instincts are run and that there is a pro-incumbent bias in the count so far with ruling parties outperforming across the board, even in TN.

What do you mean? Pro-incumbency in the electorate, or pro-incumbent bias in the counting of the votes itself? You aren't suggesting malpractice?

I mean incumbents are doing better than pre-election surveys and exit polls would suggest.  For sure I am not suggesting any foul play.

[jaichind]

Kerala vote share

To lazy to compute KEC(J) for UDF and the pro-CPM independents for LDF.  INC contested 93 vs 73 seats for CPM but have a lower share clearly shows LDF should beat out UDF by 5% at least which should imply a solid victory.

LDF
CPM       26.71%
CPI          6.78%
KEC(M)    3.95%

UDF
INC       24.65%
IUML       7.08%
RSP         1.27%

[jaichind]

TN vote share (too lazy to compute VCK vote share since it is tiny) with NOTA not stripped out

AIADMK+ overperformance seems real.  Seat count will be pretty close but DMK+ should get a clear majority.

AIADMK+      41.49%
AIADMK          34.35%
PMK                 4.70%
BJP                  2.44%

DMK+         43.54%
DMK               37.12%
INC                 3.79%
CPI                 1.39%
CPM                0.70%
IUML                0.54%

[jaichind]

Disastrous result for INC.  Gandhi family hold on party could be in doubt after this.

[Sestak]

Disastrous result for INC.  Gandhi family hold on party could be in doubt after this.

On the other hand, potential golden opportunity nationally for Banerjee, yes?

[eos]

Disastrous result for INC.  Gandhi family hold on party could be in doubt after this.

I can't see any alternatives. All the INC chief ministers are Gandhi family loyalists, and there is no one besides them and maybe Deepender Singh Hooda, that can challenge them. And even Hooda is a loyalist.

There is some opposition to Rahul Gandhi from the so-called G-23 group, but they are all Sonia Gandhi loyalists.

I think INC will keep the Gandhi's and maybe agree to support a Federal Front like they did in the late 1990s.

[eos]

Disastrous result for INC.  Gandhi family hold on party could be in doubt after this.

On the other hand, potential golden opportunity nationally for Banerjee, yes?

Yes, this is her moment. She is already the de facto leader of a Federal Front that dominates Bengal, Telegana and Delhi. They also did well in the 2019 LS elections with the exception of Delhi.

[jaichind]

Assam vote share so far (I have to compute UPPL by hand) (NOTA not stripped out)

NDA    45.49%
BJP       32.98%
AGP        7.69%
UPPL      4.82%

UPA     42.94%
INC       30.02%
AIUDF     7.87%
BPF         3.98%
CPM        0.51%
CPI(ML)   0.41%
CPI         0.08%
RJD         0.04%
AGM        0.03%

Vote share indicates that current seat count is most likely the result.  AGP and UPPL totally outperformed.  I suspect when it is all done there will be clear signs of Hindu consolidation.

[jaichind]

Disastrous result for INC.  Gandhi family hold on party could be in doubt after this.

On the other hand, potential golden opportunity nationally for Banerjee, yes?

Yes, this is her moment. She is already the de facto leader of a Federal Front that dominates Bengal, Telegana and Delhi. They also did well in the 2019 LS elections with the exception of Delhi.

Agreed.  AITC will not try to rope in AAP and other UPA allies to force INC into a much weaker position in 2024 in the anti-BJP alliance.

[jaichind]

So in Assam chemistry trumped alliance.  Of course now the BJP will have the headache of figuring out who will be CM, Himanta Biswa Sarma or Sarbananda Sonowal.  I suspect given the scale of the victory Sarbananda Sonowal is more likely to be picked.

[jaichind]

Current count

AITC continues to gain in WB while other states are holding steady which is what the vote share analysis so far would suggest.

WB            Seats   vs 2019
AITC+         195        +32
BJP+             95        -25
LEFT/INC        0          -8
OTH               2         +2
Awaiting         2 (will not be counted today)

Tamil Nadu  Seats    vs 2016
DMK+          136       +38
AIADM          97         -39
MNM+            1         +1
AMMK+          0         
OTH

Kerela        Seats    vs 2016
LDF              86          -10
UDF             50           +8
NDA              3           +2
OTH              1

Assam        Seats    vs 2019
NDA            84         +6
UPA             40         -2
AJP+             1         +1           
OTH              0          -5

Puducherry  Seats  vs 2016
NDA             11        +2
UPA               6         -1
AMMK+         0
OTH              0          -1
Awaiting       13

[eos]

So in Assam chemistry trumped alliance.  Of course now the BJP will have the headache of figuring out who will be CM, Himanta Biswa Sarma or Sarbananda Sonowal.  I suspect given the scale of the victory Sarbananda Sonowal is more likely to be picked.

This is actually quite funny because Himanta quarreled with Tarun Gogoi because he wanted to become CM, and then defected to the BJP thinking he would be made their CM candidate in 2016. Last year he orchestrated the ouster of the BPF from the BTC because the BFP chief was pro-Sonowal and anti-Himanta. Despite all his efforts, it seems he will remain no.2.

[jaichind]

If seems based on these trends Todays Chanakya would come out to be the best exit pollster this cycle. 

[jaichind]

So in Assam chemistry trumped alliance.  Of course now the BJP will have the headache of figuring out who will be CM, Himanta Biswa Sarma or Sarbananda Sonowal.  I suspect given the scale of the victory Sarbananda Sonowal is more likely to be picked.

This is actually quite funny because Himanta quarreled with Tarun Gogoi because he wanted to become CM, and then defected to the BJP thinking he would be made their CM candidate in 2016. Last year he orchestrated the ouster of the BPF from the BTC because the BFP chief was pro-Sonowal and anti-Himanta. Despite all his efforts, it seems he will remain no.2.

If he does not get the top job there will be some fallout.  Himanta Biswa Sarma already said he would refuse a cabinet position at the federal level implying nothing other than CM would do.  There are pro-Himanta Biswa Sarma and pro-Sarbananda Sonowal MLAs.  UPPL MLAs I suspect will lean Himanta Biswa Sarma but since the BJP high command is paying for all this they will get to make the call.

[jaichind]

WB vote share (NOTA stripped out).  I can only get INC CPM CPI for Left Front-INC-ISF

Not much shift in vote share.  Looks like there is no alternative to AITC landslide.

AITC                   48.52%

BJP+                  37.49%
BJP                      37.39%
AJSU                    0.08%

Left Front-INC    7.52%
CPM                    4.56%
INC                     2.79%
CPI                     0.17%

[jaichind]

AITC CM Mamata Banerjee is leading by 4000+ votes in Nandigram

[jaichind]

In Assam BPF only leading in 3.  Worst performance since its inception

BPF performance by assembly year

1991:   8
1996:   5
2001:  10
2006:  11
2011:  12
2016:  12

This time it seems its Bodo base are not voting as Bodos but as Hindus.  And those voting as Bodos most likely split their vote between BPF and UPPL.

[jaichind]

In WB, Left Front-INC-ISF has a big ZERO in terms of seats.  It seems what was left of INC Muslim base went to AITC and what was left of Left Front Hindu vote went to BJP.

[jaichind]

Disastrous result for INC.  Gandhi family hold on party could be in doubt after this.

I can't see any alternatives. All the INC chief ministers are Gandhi family loyalists, and there is no one besides them and maybe Deepender Singh Hooda, that can challenge them. And even Hooda is a loyalist.

There is some opposition to Rahul Gandhi from the so-called G-23 group, but they are all Sonia Gandhi loyalists.

I think INC will keep the Gandhi's and maybe agree to support a Federal Front like they did in the late 1990s.

I think the plan was for INC to do well in this election, give credit to Rahul Gandhi and then he is then "elected" to be INC Prez again.  Now that plan is out the window.  Not sure what the INC is going to do about its leadership crisis.

[OSR stands with Israel]

So how big of a loss is this result for the BJP

[jaichind]

TN vote share (too lazy to compute VCK vote share since it is tiny) with NOTA not stripped out

A 2% vote share lead by DMK+ would imply something like 140 to 90 seat share win. AIADMK+ is currently doing a bit better then that so I would expect their seat count to go down slightly. Still a great performance by AIADMK+.  EPS and OPS showed that AIADMK can survive without Jayalalitha.

AIADMK+      41.46%
AIADMK          34.36%
PMK                 4.61%
BJP                  2.49%

DMK+         43.48%
DMK               36.85%
INC                 3.98%
CPI                 1.40%
CPM                0.68%
IUML                0.57%

[jaichind]

So how big of a loss is this result for the BJP

The did fairly well in Assam beating back the grand alliance of INC-AIUDF-BPF.  They under-performed their hopes in WB but it was still a massive surge from 2016.  In Kerala it seems they are doing ok in terms of seats (3) but their vote share did not grow and I suspect their 3 seat lead will fall to 1 or 2 by the end of the day.  I think BJP can count itself as a small winner tonight.

[mileslunn]

Does anyone have link with the percentage each party is getting as NDTV just provides seats, not raw percentages each are getting.  Also wondering were votes cast before the current COVID surge or after as I would think that would have an impact as India quite bad now.

[jaichind]

Does anyone have link with the percentage each party is getting as NDTV just provides seats, not raw percentages each are getting.  Also wondering were votes cast before the current COVID surge or after as I would think that would have an impact as India quite bad now.

https://results.eci.gov.in/Result2021/partywiseresult-S03.htm

has vote share by party for each state.

Main problem is unless the party is a "recognized" party by the ECI the vote share of many parties which are parts of major alliances are put into "Others" which means I have to try to compute them by hand.

[jaichind]

It is interesting Hindu consolidation worked in Assam but did not work in WB.  I think the main difference is that in WB the anti-BJP forces had a face, Mamata Banerjee, whereas in Assam INC did not have a face.  Of course if the Assam INC projected a CM candidate that would have set off factional battles and destroy INC's ability to put together this INC-AIUDF-BPF grand alliance.  In that sense the death of old INC CM Tarun Gogoi late 2020 COVID-19 remove a key factor in giving INC a chance in Assam, in retrospect.  Tarun Gogoi would have had some appeal to Assamese Hindus that this time around went to BJP.