India 2021 assembly elections - TN, Kerala, WB, Assam, and perhaps J&K

[jaichind]

Applying exit poll to result algorithm

Again my algorithm (adjusted somewhat) of converting exit polls to seat projection

Again the algorithm is
1) First un-skew Todays Chanakya's exit polls to adjust for its pro-BJP house affect
2) Look at pollsters which did pre-election surveys and exit polls to see if all/most of them point to a particular party is doing better in the exit polls relative to pre-poll survey.  Then
  a) If Yes, then the most optimistic of the exit polls for said party and use that as the projection
  b) If No, then just use the average of exit polls as the projection
3) Is the ruling party/front being defeated using the projection from 2)
 a) If Yes, add some extra seats to the winning opposition party/front
 b) If No, leave result from 2) alone
4) If the winning party is BJP then repeat starting at step 2) WITHOUT un-skewing Todays Chanakya's exit polls
 

--------------------------------------
WB            AITC    BJP      Left Front-INC-ISF  
Average     141      138              13
Medium      155       120              17

Comparing pre-election polls with exit polls, one pollster had their exit poll with AITC outperforming pre-election polls (P-MARQ).  Two are around equal (Times Now C-Voter, TV9 Bharatvarsh-Polstrat) and one where BJP outperformed pre-election polls (Republic TV-CNX).  So no real momentum for either party.  If so I guess I will have to go with the medium guess. Since there is no defeat of the ruling party there is no need to make additional adjustments

WB            AITC    BJP      Left Front-INC-ISF  
Projection  155     120              17

-----------------------------------------------------

Assam
               NDA   UPA    Others
Average     67      57         2
Medium     65      59         2

Comparing pre-election polls with exit polls, one pollster was about equal to pre-election polls (India News-Jan Ki Baat) while 3 pollsters had a slight improvement for UPA (ABP News- CVoter, Times Now-CVoter, TV9 Bharatvarsh-Polstrat).  This would imply we take a more pro-UPA exit poll.  Taking the average of the 2nd and 3rd pro-UPA exit poll we have
              
                  NDA    UPA      Others
Projection      62     62          2

In theory this is a defeat of the ruling party so we should add a few seats to UPA so my projection should be a narrow UPA victory.

Assam         NDA    UPA      Others
Projection      58     66          2

-------------------------------------------

Kerala        LDF     UDF     NDA
Average       82       56        2
Medium        77     61        2

Comparing pre-election polls with exit polls, two pollster had LDF slight outperforming pre-election polls (Patriotic Voter, ABP C-Voter), and one pollster had UDF slight outperformance (Times Now C-Voter).  So really no real momentum.  If so there is no real reason not to go with medium of exit polls.

Kerala        LDF     UDF     NDA
Projection    77     61        2

--------------------------------------

TN          DMK+  AIADMK+   Others
Average   163       67              4
Medium    167      64               3

There is only one pre-election pollster that did an exit poll and it was flat (ABP C-Voter).  So there is no momentum so we should go with medium projection.  But since this projection is a defeat of an incumbent we should add more seats to DMK+

TN             DMK+  AIADMK+   Others
Projection    180      51               3

-----------------------

Puducherry      NDA   UPA
Average           20      10
Medium            19     11

Comparing pre-election polls with exit polls, one pollster(ABP-C Voter) has NDA outperforming pre-election polls while one pollster(Patriotic Voter) was a wash.  So a slight momentum for NDA.  This means we should take a more pro-NDA poll

                     NDA   UPA
Projection        22       8

And since this is a defeat of the ruling party we should add more seats to NDA to get to

Puducherry      NDA   UPA
Projection        25        5

[jaichind]

Overall exit polls did not tell me anything that I did not really know: WB is up in the air with exit polls and projections all over the place, TN and Puducherry will be landslide defeat of the ruling party, and Assam will be very close.  What the exit polls did show is that UDF has very little chance of winning in Kerala even though I thought they had a 50/50 chance of winning.  At this stage Kerala seems like a narrow LDF win to a LDF landslide.  I am still much more likely to believe a narrow LDF win than a LDF landslide but I would not be surprised May 2nd at a LDF landslide.

[jaichind]

Complete Ground Zero chart on 2016 and 2019 WB results by phase.  2019 LS results by segment are critical that is most likely the baseline for this election

Phase 1  2019 (BJP 20 AITC 10)  Muslims are 8% of VAP


Phase 2 2019 (BJP 12 AITC 18)  Muslims are 12% of VAP


Phase 3 2019 (BJP 2 AITC 29)  Muslims are 29% of VAP


Phase 4 2019 (BJP 19 AITC 25) Muslims are 16% of VAP


Phase 5 2019 (BJP 22 AITC 23)  Muslims are 18% of VAP


Phase 6 2019 (BJP 19 AITC 24)  Muslims are 29% of VAP


Phase 7 2019 (BJP 16 AITC 16 INC 4)  Muslims are 35% of VAP


Phase 8 2019 (BJP 11 AITC 19 INC 5) Muslims are 39% of VAP

[eos]

https://fb.watch/5b_1Y-HKYD/

D News (Assamese channel) seatwise projections for Assam

By my count, 61 for NDA, 62 for UPA, and 3 for AJP/RJ

[PSOL]

In the event of a hung parliament in Kerala, would the UPA and NDA alliance form a coalition government? Is there any chance the LDF faces defections to the UPA either during government formation or after being booted out of power? Which parties are the most likely?

[jaichind]

Best case realistic scenario for BJP and INC for each state

BJP:
Assam: NDA solid majority
WB: BJP solid victory
TN: Narrow DMK+ victory
Kerala: Either hung assembly where BJP can wreak havoc on both LDF and UDF in terms of government formation OR LDF landslide where UDF is so damaged that some of the UDF Christian vote might migrate toward BJP in the future
Puducherry: Solid NDA victory but not such a landslide that AINRC could in theory get some INC MLAs to defect and dump BJP

INC
Assam: UPA narrow majority
WB: Hung assembly with INC giving AITC the majority which adds to INC leverage with AITC in the runup to 2024 LS elections
TN: Solid DMK+ victory but not a mega landslide where DMK could potentially dump INC and form an alliance with BJP
Kerala: Solid UDF majority
Puducherry: Narrow UPA victory

[jaichind]

In the event of a hung parliament in Kerala, would the UPA and NDA alliance form a coalition government? Is there any chance the LDF faces defections to the UPA either during government formation or after being booted out of power? Which parties are the most likely?

On paper most likely the bloc that is bigger will lure some of the smaller parties in the other alliance to defect.   There are going to be some de facto problems with this as many parties are splinters of parties in the other alliance.

LDF
CPM
CPI
KEC(M) - will not join alliance with recent KEC(M) splinter KEC(J)
JD(S)
NCP - will not join alliance with recent NCP splinter NCK
LJD
INL - IUML splinter, unlikely to join alliance with IUML
C(S) - INC splinter, unlikely to join an alliance with INC
KEC(B)
JKC

UDF
INC
IUML
KEC(Joseph) - KEC(M) splinter so unlikely to be in alliance with KEC(M)
NCK - NCP splinter so unlikely to join alliance with NCP
KEC(Jacob)
CMP - CPM splinter so unlikely to join LDF
RMPI - CPM splinter so unlikely to join LDF

Many of these parties are micro parties.  JD(S) defecting from LDF to UDF seems like an option.  Another option is another realignment of the various KEC splinters to either all join up with UDF or LDF.  But that would involve mergers and/or MLA buying between the two large KEC factions (KEC(M) and KEC(Joseph))

I am sure in the end some set of defections will take place to produce a workable majority.

[jaichind]

Axis My India exit poll for WB shows the BJP vote share gains relative to 2019 are larger in the later phases right when the COVID-19 wave is taking place.  It seems Modi/BJP is not being blamed for the wave, at least more than the AITC government.  Of course an alternative explanation is BJP gains are in phases where there is a greater Muslim population (3, 6, 7, 8 ) in which case it is more about Hindu consolidation.  One way or another COVID-19 does not seem to matter in WB.

[jaichind]

News 24- Today's Chanakya exit poll for WB

TMC- 180 ±11(46%)
BJP- 108 ±11 (39%)
SM - 4 ±4 (9%)
Oth- 0 ±3 (6%)

In theory Today's Chanakya is the most accurate pollster for WB last couple of election cycles.

2016 Assembly :-
AITC - 210, Left Front-INC - 70
Actual Result :
AITC - 211, Left Front-INC - 76

2019 LS :-
AITC - 23, BJP - 18
Actual Result -
AITC - 22, BJP - 18

[Real Texan Politics]

Too early to say if Modi will lose in 2024? My gut says he does if Trump did and Bolsonaro more than likely will, though politics is different in each of those 3 countries (or so it seems coming from an American).

[eos]

Too early to say if Modi will lose in 2024? My gut says he does if Trump did and Bolsonaro more than likely will, though politics is different in each of those 3 countries (or so it seems coming from an American).

Doesn't look like it as long as Modi retains a favourable image. Maybe Covid will affect his image, but it's hard to tell right now how the public will respond.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Too early to say if Modi will lose in 2024? My gut says he does if Trump did and Bolsonaro more than likely will, though politics is different in each of those 3 countries (or so it seems coming from an American).

The pandemic will almost certainly not be an issue in 2024 so I dont think that comparison really works. Also Trump almost won reelection during the pandemic itself against a far stronger candidate than anyone the Congress party is likely to nominate and the Democratic party itself is no where near as unpopular as Congress.

[Sestak]

The answer, as always, is "it remains to be seen". Certainly prevailing opinion is still that 2024 is Modi's to lose. But things can always change. Even if the pandemic doesn't sink Modi completely, it could make him more vulnerable + allow a potentially more coherent oppositon/alternative to him to emerge.

To counter OSR's point, "the Democratic Party" is not at all a popular institution either! If Biden was seen the way the electorate sees a 'standard Democratic politician', he would have lost. He won because he separated himself and presented himself as a uniquely stabilizing figure.

Similarly, any opposition to Modi/BJP at this point has to come with that first and foremost; a presentable alternative as a plausible Prime Minister. And right now, it's very difficult to point to one person who can emerge as that. Especially within INC. Rahul has been tried twice before and quite frankly is not an easy person to picture as PM. They may try to present him as "matured" or whatever but I think (hope?) at this point that even they realize this is too stupid to try again (though this is Congress, so you never know). Priyanka could be a slightly better choice, as she's more popular and not generally seen as a bumbling idiot kid, but still...I'm rather skeptical on her, as well. Would take a radical shift within Congress for them to pick someone other than those two right now, and so without some credible alternative emerging Modi may well just end up as the only man standing.

[OSR stands with Israel]

The answer, as always, is "it remains to be seen". Certainly prevailing opinion is still that 2024 is Modi's to lose. But things can always change. Even if the pandemic doesn't sink Modi completely, it could make him more vulnerable + allow a potentially more coherent oppositon/alternative to him to emerge.

To counter OSR's point, "the Democratic Party" is not at all a popular institution either! If Biden was seen the way the electorate sees a 'standard Democratic politician', he would have lost. He won because he separated himself and presented himself as a uniquely stabilizing figure.

Similarly, any opposition to Modi/BJP at this point has to come with that first and foremost; a presentable alternative as a plausible Prime Minister. And right now, it's very difficult to point to one person who can emerge as that. Especially within INC. Rahul has been tried twice before and quite frankly is not an easy person to picture as PM. They may try to present him as "matured" or whatever but I think (hope?) at this point that even they realize this is too stupid to try again (though this is Congress, so you never know). Priyanka could be a slightly better choice, as she's more popular and not generally seen as a bumbling idiot kid, but still...I'm rather skeptical on her, as well. Would take a radical shift within Congress for them to pick someone other than those two right now, and so without some credible alternative emerging Modi may well just end up as the only man standing.

Yes Modi absolutely could be vulnerable but not with the INC as its constituted at the moment and it doesnt seem like they will make the major changes needed to win in 2024 and I dont think its a realistic goal as well .I think a more realistic expectation is for the INC is to have its Neil Kinnock moment in which they like the Labour party in the mid 80s are able to first stop the party's seemingly perpetual free fall and then begin the transition into making the party electable again .

The hard work Kinnock did help create the groundwork for the Tony Blair years

[jaichind]

Too early to say if Modi will lose in 2024? My gut says he does if Trump did and Bolsonaro more than likely will, though politics is different in each of those 3 countries (or so it seems coming from an American).

Assuming the current surge reaches its peak sometime in May and then slowly recede Modi should be OK for 2024 given the relative weakness of the alternative.  Main risk for BJP is if they somehow do something to overreach policy-wise that destroys the Modi brand or have a civil war over Modi's successor (Amit Shah vs UP CM Yogi Adityanath).

[jaichind]

Counting will be tomorrow for 4 states/UT and a bunch of LS and assembly by-elections.   It will be slower than normal due to COVID-19 precautions

[jaichind]

Few more late breaking exit polls came in for Kerala.  While couple of them has LDP well ahead others are more favorable for UDF and even has UDF with a narrow lead.  It does not change the exit poll average and medium that much but even the ones that have LDP ahead it is an improvement relative to the same pollsters pre-election polls.  I would say these new data makes the chances of a LDP landslide significantly smaller and makes the chances of a narrow LDP win larger with now a reasonable outside chance of a UDF upset now possible.

[jaichind]

CSDS exit polls

TN: DMK+ ahead AIADMK+ by 5%-7% and will win conformably
Kerala: LDF ahead of UDF by 6%-7% and win by a large margin
WB: AITC ahead of BJP by 4%-5% and win a majority
Assam: NDA ahead of UPA by 4%-5% and will win conformably

CSDS polls are the standard CW polls.  They
a) tend to herd
b) overestimate the ruling party
c) do not pick up waves

I am pretty sure they are overestimating  the ruling party by at least 2%-3% if not more assuming there is no large pro-incumbent wave which we will only know about after the fact.  At this stage only Kerala is there a chance of a hidden pro-incumbent wave. Also, I am pretty sure that in Assam UPA will most likely win the popular vote even if they might end up behind in seat count to NDA.

It seems this was a post-poll in person survey






Where they have those surveyed fill out a ballot.  Overall this type of in person approach will reinforce the pro-incumbency bias as those surveyed cannot be 100% sure the pollsters are not really representives of the current state government. 

[jaichind]

Some info on the count.  They count postal first then then count predict by predict releasing results in terms of rounds.  Usually there are 15-25 rounds of counting.  

The way the count usually goes is:
a) if it is neck-to-neck then the count will be neck-to-neck throughout the count
b) if it is landslide then the scale of the landslide will get bigger the later the count goes

After the postal counts are done and 1/3 of the rounds are in looking at the vote share should tell you roughly where things will end up.

Given this, I suspect Assam and Kerala will be close the entire time while Puducherry and TN will be lopsided from the beginning.  I think WB will be pretty lopsided except no one knows who that will favor in WB.

[xelas81]

Some info on the count.  They count postal first then then count predict by predict releasing results in terms of rounds.  Usually there are 15-25 rounds of counting.  

The way the count usually goes is:
a) if it is neck-to-neck then the count will be neck-to-neck throughout the count
b) if it is landslide then the scale of the landslide will get bigger the later the count goes

After the postal counts are done and 1/3 of the rounds are in looking at the vote share should tell you roughly where things will end up.

Given this, I suspect Assam and Kerala will be close the entire time while Puducherry and TN will be lopsided from the beginning.  I think WB will be pretty lopsided except no one knows who that will favor in WB.

India has postal voting?

[eos]

Some info on the count.  They count postal first then then count predict by predict releasing results in terms of rounds.  Usually there are 15-25 rounds of counting.  

The way the count usually goes is:
a) if it is neck-to-neck then the count will be neck-to-neck throughout the count
b) if it is landslide then the scale of the landslide will get bigger the later the count goes

After the postal counts are done and 1/3 of the rounds are in looking at the vote share should tell you roughly where things will end up.

Given this, I suspect Assam and Kerala will be close the entire time while Puducherry and TN will be lopsided from the beginning.  I think WB will be pretty lopsided except no one knows who that will favor in WB.

India has postal voting?

Yes. Funnily enough, there was some controversy over postal votes in the Bihar 2020 election. Postal votes are supposed to be counted first, but they were counted last in Bihar. Coincidentally, many of the seats that returned marginal wins for the NDA were declared very very late.

The entire election was close, and NDA only won a slim majority after it looked like the opposition was going to win. The opposition predictably made allegations of rigging and electoral malpractice. I don't know what happened, but you have to admit it was suspicious that postal votes were left for the last.

[eos]

Some info on the count.  They count postal first then then count predict by predict releasing results in terms of rounds.  Usually there are 15-25 rounds of counting.  

The way the count usually goes is:
a) if it is neck-to-neck then the count will be neck-to-neck throughout the count
b) if it is landslide then the scale of the landslide will get bigger the later the count goes

After the postal counts are done and 1/3 of the rounds are in looking at the vote share should tell you roughly where things will end up.

Given this, I suspect Assam and Kerala will be close the entire time while Puducherry and TN will be lopsided from the beginning.  I think WB will be pretty lopsided except no one knows who that will favor in WB.

I think they start counting postal votes 7am IST and EVM's from 8pm IST. Assuming they take 1 hour per EVM, we might expect to have a good picture of most states by 12pm (if 15 EVM) or 4pm (25 EVM). Assam might take a while though, as well as Kerela (assuming it isn't a LDF blowout).

[jaichind]

Some info on the count.  They count postal first then then count predict by predict releasing results in terms of rounds.  Usually there are 15-25 rounds of counting.  

The way the count usually goes is:
a) if it is neck-to-neck then the count will be neck-to-neck throughout the count
b) if it is landslide then the scale of the landslide will get bigger the later the count goes

After the postal counts are done and 1/3 of the rounds are in looking at the vote share should tell you roughly where things will end up.

Given this, I suspect Assam and Kerala will be close the entire time while Puducherry and TN will be lopsided from the beginning.  I think WB will be pretty lopsided except no one knows who that will favor in WB.

India has postal voting?

Yes.  Traditionally this is the military vote which leans BJP.  Due to COVID-19 there are more of it now but still relatively small in number.   Still it makes a difference in close races. 

[eos]

Too early to say if Modi will lose in 2024? My gut says he does if Trump did and Bolsonaro more than likely will, though politics is different in each of those 3 countries (or so it seems coming from an American).

Assuming the current surge reaches its peak sometime in May and then slowly recede Modi should be OK for 2024 given the relative weakness of the alternative.  Main risk for BJP is if they somehow do something to overreach policy-wise that destroys the Modi brand or have a civil war over Modi's successor (Amit Shah vs UP CM Yogi Adityanath).

I can't imagine what it would take for Modi to become personally unpopular. He will have the support of core BJP/NDA voters no matter what, and the swing voters didn't seem bothered by the demonetisation fiasco. I have doubts that the pandemic will make too much of a dent either.

That said, wasn't UPA's win in 2004 a shock? Vajpayee was popular, and the economy was doing well. The NDA even campaigned on a "shining India" platform and seemed absolutely certain they were going to repeat. In retrospect, were there any signs of trouble? Or could the UPA hope for a miracle in 2024 too?

[eos]

Some info on the count.  They count postal first then then count predict by predict releasing results in terms of rounds.  Usually there are 15-25 rounds of counting.  

The way the count usually goes is:
a) if it is neck-to-neck then the count will be neck-to-neck throughout the count
b) if it is landslide then the scale of the landslide will get bigger the later the count goes

After the postal counts are done and 1/3 of the rounds are in looking at the vote share should tell you roughly where things will end up.

Given this, I suspect Assam and Kerala will be close the entire time while Puducherry and TN will be lopsided from the beginning.  I think WB will be pretty lopsided except no one knows who that will favor in WB.

India has postal voting?

Yes.  Traditionally this is the military vote which leans BJP.  Due to COVID-19 there are more of it now but still relatively small in number.   Still it makes a difference in close races. 

Interesting. Is there any research on the military leaning towards BJP? Any divide between officers and the rank and file? The political affiliation of soldiers seem to be a taboo subject in India.