India 2021 assembly elections - TN, Kerala, WB, Assam, and perhaps J&K

[jaichind]

Ground Zero WB exit poll

[jaichind]

Little Monk exit poll for Assam

NDA : 44%
UPA : 43%
OTH : 13%

[eos]

Axis My India exit polls.  Other than Bihar assembly elections in 2020 they are pretty much been the most accurate exit pollster since 2015 they then famously got the Grand Alliance winning by a landslide over NDA in Bihar.  I think what make them accurate is they are not afraid to take outlying positions and do not herd.

INC+Left 0-2 in WB is incredible. Have to see if it comes true.

[eos]

C voter Assam exit poll

BJP+ 58-71
CONG+ 53-66

But has UPA vote share well ahead

Is the vote to seat discrepancy to be explained by UPA running up margins in Lower Assam? 6% seems rather too large for it not to be a UPA win.

[jaichind]

Axis My India exit polls.  Other than Bihar assembly elections in 2020 they are pretty much been the most accurate exit pollster since 2015 they then famously got the Grand Alliance winning by a landslide over NDA in Bihar.  I think what make them accurate is they are not afraid to take outlying positions and do not herd.

INC+Left 0-2 in WB is incredible. Have to see if it comes true.

Yeah, there are a bunch of very Muslim heavy seats (something like 5-10 ) mostly in Murshidabad that have voted solidly for years for INC AND the BJP have no chance of winning.  I do not see why they will switch for AITC.  On the other hand in 2015 and 2020 Delhi assembly elections there were a couple of seats like this and they all shifted from INC to AAP so in theory it is possible.

[jaichind]

C voter Assam exit poll

BJP+ 58-71
CONG+ 53-66

But has UPA vote share well ahead

Is the vote to seat discrepancy to be explained by UPA running up margins in Lower Assam? 6% seems rather too large for it not to be a UPA win.

I doubt if UPA wins by 6% they would lose the seat count.  Ergo this poll is very fishy.

[jaichind]

Shining India Kerala exit poll has UDF ahead

[jaichind]

Shining India Assam exit poll

[jaichind]

Shining India Puducherry   exit poll

[jaichind]

Shining India WB exit poll

[jaichind]

Jan Ki Baat exit poll for Kerala

[jaichind]

Jan Ki Baat exit poll for Assam

[jaichind]

Jan Ki Baat exit poll for TN (very narrow DMK+ lead which is an outlider)

[locked_out]

What's the early read on what these exit polls mean for Modi's standing?

[jaichind]

What's the early read on what these exit polls mean for Modi's standing?

The only places that voted after the COVID-19 surge are the later phases of WB.  The few WB exit poll that broke out their survey by phase (all of then showing BJP won in WB) shows if anything the BJP gaining more in the later phases relative to 2019 results.  So if we overlook the fact that these are the polls that show BJP winning (there are more WB exit polls that show BJP losing) the trend shows that the COVID-19 surge have NOT dented Modi/BJP popularity. 

[jaichind]

My exit poll based algorithm for predicting results which I will now apply.  This time around Todays Chanakya does not seem to have a massive pro-BJP house affect so I would not apply the Todays Chanakya aspect of the algorithm.

Again my algorithm (adjusted somewhat) of converting exit polls to seat projection

Again the algorithm is
1) First un-skew Todays Chanakya's exit polls to adjust for its pro-BJP house affect
2) Look at pollsters which did pre-election surveys and exit polls to see if all/most of them point to a particular party is doing better in the exit polls relative to pre-poll survey.  Then
  a) If Yes, then the most optimistic of the exit polls for said party and use that as the projection
  b) If No, then just use the average of exit polls as the projection
3) Is the ruling party/front being defeated using the projection from 2)
 a) If Yes, add some extra seats to the winning opposition party/front
 b) If No, leave result from 2) alone
4) If the winning party is BJP then repeat starting at step 2) WITHOUT un-skewing Todays Chanakya's exit polls
 

[jaichind]

BJP internal survey for WB

[jaichind]

Just to be clear, a history of BJP MLAs elected from past WB assembly elections

1991 : 0
1996 : 0
2001 : 0
2006 : 0
2011 : 0
2016 : 3

This time around they seem likely to get at least 100 seats if not a majority.  Incredible surge.

[eos]

[eos]

Assam's largest newspaper, Pratidin, came out with an exit poll and seatwise breakdowns.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2yW52qOUTuA

https://www.pratidintime.com/exit-polls-predict-bjp-led-alliance-likely-to-retain-assam/

NDA 67±5
UPA 59±5
OTH  3±1

However, their seatwise breakdown is apparently more cautious. By my count,

NDA 49, UPA 55, and 21(22?) close contests that could go either way. It seems they project most close contests breaking in favour of NDA.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Just to be clear, a history of BJP MLAs elected from past WB assembly elections

1991 : 0
1996 : 0
2001 : 0
2006 : 0
2011 : 0
2016 : 3

This time around they seem likely to get at least 100 seats if not a majority.  Incredible surge.

Wait they only got 3 seats in 2016 and now are expected to get over 100!

[jaichind]

Just to be clear, a history of BJP MLAs elected from past WB assembly elections

1991 : 0
1996 : 0
2001 : 0
2006 : 0
2011 : 0
2016 : 3

This time around they seem likely to get at least 100 seats if not a majority.  Incredible surge.

Wait they only got 3 seats in 2016 and now are expected to get over 100!

Correct.  Reasons for this are quite complex and have to do with collapse of Left Front after 2011.  Also Modi being Gujarati meant that Bengalis are more open to the BJP which had a traditional Hindi image.  Modi-BJP is a powerful combination where between them the BJP retains its old Hindi base but can expand out to non-Hindi Indo-Aryan language speakers.  Bengali speaking Tripura had the same pattern

1993 : 0
1998 : 0
2003 : 0
2008 : 0
2013 : 0
2018 : 35  (out of 60)

In Tripura it was a Left Front-INC duopoly and in 2018 INC collapsed leading to BJP taking over the entire anti-Left Front space.   In WB it was a AITC-Left Front duopoly and a Left Front collapse led to the BJP taking over the anti-AITC space. 

[jaichind]

Karnataka local body polls has INC winning 7 Councils, JD(S) 2 and BJP 1.



Not good news for BJP as the ruling party.  If BJP CM BS Yediyurappa is not leading the BJP in the 2023 Karnataka assembly elections the most likely BJP will face a rout.  Given his age and his poor relationship with BJP high command I suspect BS Yediyurappa will end up being retired in 2023 one way or another.

[jaichind]

CSDS exit polls

TN: DMK+ ahead AIADMK+ by 5%-7% and will win conformably
Kerala: LDF ahead of UDF by 6%-7% and win by a large margin
WB: AITC ahead of BJP by 4%-5% and win a majority
Assam: NDA ahead of UPA by 4%-5% and will win conformably

CSDS polls are the standard CW polls.  They
a) tend to herd
b) overestimate the ruling party
c) do not pick up waves

I am pretty sure they are overestimating  the ruling party by at least 2%-3% if not more assuming there is no large pro-incumbent wave which we will only know about after the fact.  At this stage only Kerala is there a chance of a hidden pro-incumbent wave. Also, I am pretty sure that in Assam UPA will most likely win the popular vote even if they might end up behind in seat count to NDA.

[jaichind]

Range of exit polls