India 2021 assembly elections - TN, Kerala, WB, Assam, and perhaps J&K

[jaichind]

https://www.hindustantimes.com/elections/assam-assembly-election/newly-formed-anti-caa-parties-to-contest-assam-elections-together-101612426863388.html

"Newly formed anti-CAA parties to contest Assam elections together"

In new anti-CAA parties AJP and RD forms an alliance.  AJP can be viewed as a AGP splinter since both AGP in the early 1980s and AJP in 2019 were formed from Assamese regionalist anti-immigrant AASU.  RD is more of an AAP splinter as RD are mostly formed by those that participated in the 2012-2013 anti-corruption movement that then grew into AAP.

It seems AJP-RD will also try to rope in BPF since BJP will clearly dump BPF for UPPL and SGS in Bodoland.

So the alliance groupings in Assam will mostly look like

BJP-AGP-UPPL-SGS vs INC-AIUDF-CPM-CPI-CPI(ML) vs AJP-RD-BPF

Back in 2019 LS elections it was

BJP-AGP-BPF vs INC vs AIUDF (tactical alliance with INC) vs UPPL (in Bodoland) vs SGS (in Bodoland)

In 2016 assembly elections it was

BJP-AGP-BPF vs INC-UPPL vs AIUDF

In 2014 LS elections it was

BJP-UPPL vs INC-BPF vs AGP vs SGS (in Bodoland)

[jaichind]

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/india-farmers-protest-greta-thunberg-threats-rihanna-meena-harris-modi-government/

"Greta Thunberg reiterates support for India farmers' protest despite "threats""

There is no better assembly election gift than this for the BJP.  The farm protests was something was first time since it took power that the Modi regime could not handle and was clearly on the way to backing down in some way.  The only card it played, to no effect, was that the farm protests were inspired and controlled by external enemies of India looking to undermine India's unity to become a superpower.  Now with the standard international woke celebrities jumping publicly on the farm protest bandwagon the BJP now could turn the tables on the farm protesters and the opposition parities.  All this taking place just in time for the assembly elections.

[jaichind]

How I see how the Assam race shaping up in terms of different groups

Assamese Hindu: BJP-AGP vs INC vs AJP-RD
Non-Assamese Hindus: BJP domination vs INC
Assamese Muslims: INC-AIUDF vs AJD-RD vs AGP
Bengali Muslims: INC-AIUDF domination

In Bodoland
Bodos: BJP-UPPL vs BPF
Non-Bodo Hindus: BJP-AGP-SGS vs INC vs AJP-RD
Muslims: INC-AIUDF vs SGS

How Assamese Hindus vote will the the key to victory.  If anti-CAA Assamese Hindus consolidate behind INC or AJD-RD or can tactically vote  then BJP-AGP-UPPL-SGS can be kept from a majority.  If not it will be a BJP-AGP-UPPL-SGS sweep.  And even if the anti-CAA Assamese Hindus can vote to keep out the BJP the election will then be decided in Bodoland.  If BPF can sweep Bodoland then BJP-AGP-UPPL-SGS can still be kept from a majority even if they do well with Assamese Hindus.

Net net, the only bloc capable of a majority is BJP-AGP-UPPL-SGS.  It is not clear if they will get there but they do have many paths to get there.

[jaichind]

https://www.news18.com/news/politics/abbas-siddiquis-indian-secular-front-stitches-alliance-with-congress-left-ditching-owaisi-in-bengal-polls-3394577.html

"Abbas Siddiqui’s Indian Secular Front Stitches Alliance with Congress-Left Ditching Owaisi in Bengal Polls"

It seems former pro-AITC Muslim leader Abbas Siddiqui's new ISF might join up with INC-Left Front alliance in WB.  This is a blow to AIMIM that was hoping to have a local Bengali Muslim partner to counter the image that AIMIM is a party of non-Bengali Muslims.  This is also a blow to AITC since now it will have to fight harder to claw away the INC-Left Front Muslim vote.  By the same logic this is good new for BJP as this will only drive away what is rest of the Left Front Bengali Hindu vote to BJP.

[jaichind]

It seems the farm law protests are dragging on and as it goes on without end it seems Modi might lose his first battle since becoming PM.  He already unilaterally backed down by offering to suspend the laws by 18 month and to strength at the state level the MSP (minimum support price) the farm protester's fear might get removed.  This does not seem to be acceptable to the protesters who are demanding a complete roll back of the laws and a new laws passed to guarantee MSP. 

What is getting Modi/BJP concerned is that the farm protests which were Sikh led are now having larger number of Jats in their ranks.   Jats has historically not voted BJP but shifted to BJP after the 2013 Muzaffarnagar Jat-Muslim riots have started to vote en bloc for BJP.  If these protests are not handled well the Jats would shift away from BJP with dire consequences for the BJP in Haryana and Western UP.

On the flip side if Modi gives in more on the issue then other reforms he wants to push forward will see the same sort of protests by vested interests with help from the opposition.

The BJP got a fillip from bashing foreign woke celebrities backing the farm protests but that will wear off over time and the BJP still have to deal with a large scale Sikh-Jat farm protest movement surrounding New Delhi. 

[jaichind]

In addition to ISF looking to ally with INC-Left Front, other recent WB developments are

JMM looking to run in some of the tribal areas in WB near Jharkhand.  All in all this is bad news for AITC since it will further cut into the AITC vote in tribal areas

CPI(ML) looks like broke off talks with Left Front for an alliance and most likely will have a tactical alliance with INC-Left Front at best. 

In Gorkha areas in the North it seems old BJP ally GJM which help BJP sweep Gorkha areas in 2019 LS elations have gone over to AITC while GNLF which was with AITC in 2016 and 2019 has gone over to the BJP.  Still a net win for AITC in Gorkha areas.

All things equal most recent events seems to be moving the election in the BJP election.  The emerging AITC, INC-Left Front, and AIMIM battle for the Muslim is playing right into BJP hands as more AITC cadres and leaders defect to BJP.

[jaichind]

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/financial-aid-to-8-lakh-tea-garden-workers-ahead-of-assam-election-2364789

"Financial Aid To 8 Lakh Tea Garden Workers Ahead Of Assam Election"

Latest federal budget will provide financial aid of $40 to every Assam Tea Garden worker on top of two earlier payouts of similar size.  This is pretty much the bulwark of the the non-Assamese Hindu vote in Assam which used to vote INC but now are solidly with BJP.   I guess the BJP want to make sure they turn out for BJP this time around.

[Flyersfan232]

who are kerala bjp voters?

[jaichind]

who are kerala bjp voters?

See CSDS post-2016 Kerala election survey



BJP is strong with Urban Upper Caste Nairs which traditionally voted INC but are shifting toward BJP.
BJP also are making inroads with Ezhavas which are lower caste from LDP.  BJP's alliance with Ezhavas based BDJS also helped.  Dalits which are not aligned with UDF or LDF but have leaned LDF are being successfully wooed by BJP. 

BJP's national brand in Kerala is negative since BJP is seen as a Hindi based party which is a treat to the Dravidian based Kerala.  Dalits do not have as much stake in the current system and with Modi trying to caste off the Upper Caste image of the BJP it makes sense Dalits would vote in larger numbers for the BJP.

The Christian Church in Kerala last few years have been getting closer to the BJP due to practical clientelist reasons.  BJP has been roping in more KEC splinters from UDF and LDF into its ranks and could only push up the BJP vote with Christians.

None of this would mean that the BJP can be at par with UDF or LDF but it does mean now that NDA can win enough vote win a few seats and impact the result in many seats.

[jaichind]

2016 Kerala post-election CSDS survey.  BJP is really NDA.  The Ezhavas vote for NDA most likely is due to Ezhavas based BDJS running as an ally of BJP

[ملكة كرينجيتوك]

2016 Kerala post-election CSDS survey.  BJP is really NDA.  The Ezhavas vote for NDA most likely is due to Ezhavas based BDJS running as an ally of BJP

Given what I know about Kerala's racial/religious/caste demographics and political status quo, it makes sense that the BJP would be stronger among upper-caste Hindus and younger voters, who I imagine would be more receptive to Hindu identity politics and populist (Indian) nationalism respectively. Kerala and Tamil Nadu seem to have very strong regional parties/coalitions, which partly explains why Kerala is so left-wing relative to other states.

[jaichind]

Given what I know about Kerala's racial/religious/caste demographics and political status quo, it makes sense that the BJP would be stronger among upper-caste Hindus and younger voters, who I imagine would be more receptive to Hindu identity politics and populist (Indian) nationalism respectively. Kerala and Tamil Nadu seem to have very strong regional parties/coalitions, which partly explains why Kerala is so left-wing relative to other states.

The main factors for the strength of the Left in Kerala is the large Christian population: Kerala is 60% Hindu 20% Christian and 20% Muslim.  The Christian population are fairly conservative  socially and economically and dominated by Christian landowners.  They might ideologically be closer to BJP but the Hindu nationalist agenda has kept the Christian vote away from the BJP.  As a result Christians tend to back INC.   The Hindus, especially lower Caste ones, then backed Left Front in reaction viewing the BJP as an Upper Caste party.  So over time the Left Front became the alternative to the Christian and Muslim support INC bloc with the BJP with an Hindi Hindu Upper Caste image relegated to a distant third.

[jaichind]

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/guwahati/assam-election-congress-assures-allies-decision-on-seat-sharing-soon/articleshow/80773351.cms

"Assam election: Congress assures allies' decision on seat sharing soon"

In Assam INC and AIUDF will be head toward a "Show me the money" situation soon as far as seat sharing in Muslim dominated parts of Lower Assam.  In around 30 some seats INC and AIUDF are first and second place in the 2016 assembly elections.  Seat sharing for those seats will be very difficult and there well be many INC and AIUDF rebels plus a chance for the BJP to expand in those seats. 

 

[jaichind]

https://www.india.com/news/india/bengal-assembly-elections-2021-tamil-nadu-kerala-puducherry-assam-election-commission-poll-schedule-final-call-after-february-15-4410893/

"Bengal Elections Likely to be Held in 6-7 Phases, Tamil Nadu & Kerala May See Single-phased Polls: Report"

Election most likely in April.  WB 6-7 phases, Assam 2 phases, and TN, Kerala Puducherry single phase.

ECI should be out with official schedule soon.

[jaichind]

https://www.livemint.com/elections/assembly-elections/advantage-trinamool-in-tough-bengal-battle-this-year-11613368254869.html

"Advantage Trinamool in tough Bengal battle this year"

Has some good historical data on recent WB elections.

The basic idea is since 1977 in WB it has been Left Front vs INC.  The in 1998 Mamata Banerjee, angered at INC high command reluctance to go all out to attack Left Front, split from INC to from AITC and taking with it most of the INC vote and allied with BJP.  Then WB elections became Left Front vs AITC-BJP vs INC.   Then in 2008 with INC having a fallout with Left Front at the national level over the USA Nuclear Deal AITC allied with INC to finally defeat Left Front.  After that AITC broke off with INC while the Left Front now out of power slowly lost its Hindu base to BJP.  Now we finally reached AITC vs BJP vs INC-Left Front.




The article also points out that BJP tend to underperform its LS vote share in assembly elections so one cannot assume BJP just get to 40% of the vote in the upcoming election.  But if BJP can get to 35% it will be a huge threat to AITC if INC-Left Front can retain a significant vote share.

[jaichind]

ABP/CNX poll for WB

                             Seats     Vote share
AITC                       151         41.1%
BJP                         117         36.6%
INC-Left Front           24         17.1%
AIMIM                        0           1.2%
Others                       2

Very narrow majority for AITC.  For the ruling party to to have this sort of lead implies that the race could very well be neck-to-neck between AITC and BJP since polls at this stage tend to skew incumbent party.    The main downside for BJP is that the candidate quality of the BJP will be lower since in so many districts the BJP had no real presence before the 2019 LS election so the personal vote will skew AITC.  If we fact both these facts into account they most likely cancel each other out and the result will be similar to this poll.  And if these were the results I think the BJP will have an excellent shot at winning in 2026 unless the national environment shifts dramatically against the BJP by then.

[jaichind]

In Punjab civic elections for mostly small and medium sized cities it a clean sweep for INC due to the farmer protest issue.  SAD being allied before with BJP clearly hurt its prospects even though it has broken off ties with BJP.  INC sweeps even in Hindu areas where the BJP should still have even some residual support.  For now INC seems well poised to win re-election in 2022 even though it is 2 years away and INC could still do a lot of stuff to mess it up.

[jaichind]

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/rahul-gandhi-no-caa-in-assam-if-congress-comes-to-power-10-points-2370432

"No CAA In Assam If Congress Comes To Power, Says Rahul Gandhi"

In Assam the INC has come out hard against CAA.  This means in this election the INC has mostly given up on the non-Assamese Hindus and will focus on Assamese Hindus in addition to of course the Muslims.

Historically it has been in Assam

Assamese Hindus: AGP vs INC
Non-Assamese Hindus: BJP vs INC

With the BJP surge since 2014 the BJP has expanded its lead with Non-Assamese Hindus and also eaten into the AGP Assamese Hindu vote for LS elections and to some extent in assembly elections.  This time around INC must sense that with BJP for CAA there is no way INC can gain any ground with non-Assamese Hindus ergo it decided to double down on an anti-CAA position hoping to eat into the Assamese Hindu vote from AGP and BJP as well as squeeze out the new anti-CAA AJP-RD.

[jaichind]

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/puducherry-congress-government-in-minority-as-four-mlas-quit-two-in-the-past-two-days-2371517

"Congress Government In Puducherry Slips Into Minority Ahead Of Polls"

In Puducherry where assembly elections will also be held along side the other bigger states in the Spring, it seems the INC-DMK government has lost its majority due to defections of several INC MLAs to the BJP.  With 4 INC MLA resigning the assembly now has 14 INC-DMK MLAs and 14 opposition (AINRC, AIADMK, BJP) MLA.  With the INC Speaker not being able to vote unless there is a tie the INC-DMK majority is in theory gone.

Back in 2016 INC-DMK won most because AINRC (pro-NDA INC splinter), AIADMK, and BJP contested separately.  This time around it seems there will be a AINRC-AIADMK-BJP alliance which will certainly defeat INC-DMK.  The prospects of the INC-DMK government returning to power is dim ergo INC MLAs are jumping ship with the help of BJP and AIADMK who control the federal and TN governments respectively.   

Now there will most likely be a floor vote next week.  If INC-DMK government falls then Puducherry will fall under President's rule which means the state government machinery will fall under the control of the BJP making it even harder for INC-DMK to win in the upcoming assembly election.

[jaichind]

https://www.financialexpress.com/india-news/west-bengal-election-tmc-launches-2021-poll-slogan-bangla-nijer-meyekei-chaye-reignites-outsider-vs-insider-debate/

"West Bengal Election: TMC launches 2021 poll slogan ‘Bangla Nijer Meyekei Chaye’; reignites ‘outsider vs insider’ debate"

As expected AITC is goin full Bengal regionalism for the 2021 election.  The slogan 'Bangla Nijer Meyekei Chaye' means 'Bengal wants its own daughter' clearly is directed against the BJP and trying to tied the BJP to a Hindi based culture and Mamata Banerjee as the defender of Bengla identify.

Last couple election cycles attacks like this directed at Modi/Shah have not really worked because Modi/Shah themselves are Gujarati and not from a Hindi speaking state.  That is the power of Modi, he is able to consolidate the BJP Hindi base and add Indo-Aryan states to the BJP base with a non-Hindi Modi being less threatening in terms of Hindi domination narrative.  WB is the last non-Hindi Indo-Aryan that the BJP have not broken through.  The track record shows that the AITC strategy might be the only viable strategy it has left but most likely will be limited in its effectiveness.

[jaichind]

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/another-congress-mla-quits-ahead-of-floor-test-in-puducherry-government-now-has-13-legislators-out-of-27-2375350

"Puducherry Congress Crisis Deepens As 2 MLAs Quit Day Before Floor Test"

2 more Puducherry INC MLA resign in addition to another DMK MLA.  It is now certain that the INC-DMK government will fall and the state machinery will fall under the control of the BJP for the upcoming elections.

The general trend of defections should be from the opposition camp to the ruling camp.  So had some AINRC or AIADMK MLA defected to INC ahead of the election that does not necessary mean anything in terms of election results.  For the ruling party to lose MLAs before an elections that usually means that ruling bloc (INC-DMK) will face a landslide defeat in the upcoming assembly election.

[jaichind]

https://www.deccanherald.com/national/from-the-newsroom-congress-govt-in-puducherry-falls-cm-narayanasamy-resigns-954122.html

"Congress govt in Puducherry falls; CM Narayanasamy resigns"

INC, as expected lost the trust vote in Puducherry.  INC-DMK will almost certainly lose the upcoming assembly elections.  It will not surprise me if AINRC, confident of victory, might spurn AIADMK and go for a AINRC-BJP alliance to take on INC-DMK and still expect to win.

[jaichind]

The fact that the BJP which got 2.5% of the vote in the 2016 Puducherry assembly elections and have zero elected MLAs (it as 3 nominated MLAs which the central government gets to appoint as part of the 1962 Treaty with France when Puducherry was incorporated into India) could bring down the INC government is amazing and just shows how ruthless the Modi-Shah combine can be.  In fact I cannot thing of another political machine in the world in electoral politics as lethal and effectiveness as the Modi-Shah BJP.  After Modi-Shah retire from Indian politics they should form an international political consulting agency like Carville did and advice other parties involved in electoral politics to take down your political enemy.

[jaichind]

I told this story before.  But just we understand what opponents of the BJP are up against a story about Amit Shah will demonstrate this.

Amit Shah first entry into politics was running for student body president when he was in college in    Ahmedabad (in Gujarat) in the early 1980s.  His opponent was a women and the day before the election his campaign staff reported to him that he was likely to lose since it was clear that the women vote was going to consolidate around his women opponent while the men vote was split.  Amit Shah then had his election team to make phone calls to the families of all women students pretending to be the police saying that there was violence expected during the election and that it was best to keep their daughter home that day just to be safe.  Amit Shah eked out a narrow victory in the election the next day.

This is the type of people the INC and other BJP rivals are up against.  If they are not equally ruthless BJP will eventually trounce them every time.

[jaichind]

https://indianexpress.com/article/india/when-is-assam-kerala-west-bengal-tamil-nadu-puducherry-assembly-election-results-7206248/

Election scheduled announced by ECI

The Assembly polls will be held in Assam in three phases — on March 27, April 4 and April 6. In Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Puducherry, polling will be held in a single phase on April 6.

The polls will be held in eight phases in West Bengal starting from March 27. The polling dates in Bengal are March 27, April 1, April 6, April 10, April 17, April 22, April 26 and April 29.

Counting will be on May 2nd