🇩🇪 Germany: ⬛️ CDU/CSU chancellor candidate for 2021

[Omega21]

👋🏻

Congratulation, telephonist! Your idol and principal ACAB has just been elected the new Bundesmutti. 🙌🏻🙌🏻🙌🏻

👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻

He has been selected as a candidate, doesn't mean he'll get anywhere near her office though.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Are the votes anonymous?

Yes.

In einer digitalen Sondersitzung der CDU-Spitze votierten in der Nacht nach Angaben eines CDU-Sprechers von 46 stimmberechtigten Vorstandsmitgliedern in geheimer Wahl 31 für eine Kandidatur Laschets. 9 stimmten für Söder, 6 enthielten sich.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

He has been selected as a candidate, doesn't mean he'll get anywhere near her office though.

ACAB are Annalena Charlotte Alma Baerbock's initials.

[Omega21]

He has been selected as a candidate, doesn't mean he'll get anywhere near her office though.

ACAB are Annalena Charlotte Alma Baerbock's initials.

For some reason, my brain filtered out that part lol, guess that happens at 1:30 in the morning...

Yeah, she definitely has higher chances of winning now that the CDU is leading the campaign with an unworthy candidate.

Would be kind of a sweet punishment to the detached CDU elite though, but God help Germany if she's in power.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

He has been selected as a candidate, doesn't mean he'll get anywhere near her office though.

ACAB are Annalena Charlotte Alma Baerbock's initials.

For some reason, my brain filtered out that part lol, guess that happens at 1:30 in the morning...

Yeah, she definitely has higher chances of winning now that the CDU is leading the campaign with an unworthy candidate.

Would be kind of a sweet punishment to the detached CDU elite though, but God help Germany if she's in power.

Never would I have imagined it, but I am now, non-ironically, rooting for my former Mayor Scholz. He's the least vile candidate among the three main contenders for Merkel's villa.

[Хahar 🤔]

I have to say, the German politics threads on this board are at this point entirely incomprehensible, at least if you don't speak German. I'd like to know what's going on because it seems interesting but this thread certainly isn't helping.

[S019]

I have to say, the German politics threads on this board are at this point entirely incomprehensible, at least if you don't speak German. I'd like to know what's going on because it seems interesting but this thread certainly isn't helping.

Laschet won the CDU committee vote by a large margin, while this isn't a final vote, Soder had indicated a willingness to accept such a vote.

Good Bloomberg article on it: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-04-19/laschet-keeps-chancellor-bid-alive-surviving-cdu-party-vote

[Omega21]

I have to say, the German politics threads on this board are at this point entirely incomprehensible, at least if you don't speak German. I'd like to know what's going on because it seems interesting but this thread certainly isn't helping.

Basically, the CDU and CSU are sister parties, with CDU competing in all of Germany except Bavaria, and CSU only competing in Bavaria. Usually, CDU nominates the Chancellor candidate, but that is not a written rule.

This time it was between Laschet (CDU party President) and Söder (CSU President).

The CDU party officials did a backroom vote to nominate Laschet for Chancellor instead of Söder, who is a clear favorite with CDU and CSU voters, with polls saying the Union would get 38% of the popular vote with Söder, and only 27% with Laschet (which would mean he may not be chancellor at all).

On top of that, CDU Governors of multiple states actually supported Söder instead of their party leader Laschet, since they wanted to listen to the party voters. In spite of all this, the backroom vote was pushed through for Laschet.

Now, the party voter base is livid, and the Union will not have a great time once elections come around.

[Pick Up the Phone]

It's Laschet. Of course, Söder has to formally concede first but this looks now like a formality.

Don't want to tell you that I called it but... called it. In retrospect, all these 'Söder is inevitable' (LOL) and 'Laschet should throw in the towel' takes look a little ridiculous. To be honest, they strongly remind me of the post-Nevada 'Joe Biden cannot win the Democratic nomination' claims: they underestimate the favorite and consensus candidate because there is a new shiny toy (Sanders/Söder) in the shop window. As far as Laschet's political instincts are concerned, he did a lot of things right over the last 48 hours. Most importantly, he did not succumb to the pressure but calmly mobilized his support.

A few more interesting observations:

- It is obvious now that Söder's intra-leadership support is not anywhere as substantial as Laschet's. 31-9 is a clear result and much better for the latter than most people would have expected.

- According to reports, the only argument Söder's supporters could muster was his greater favorability. But Laschet countered it already in his introduction: "I've spoken to many pollster over the last week. They said that the mood of the public changes quickly. No one knows how it will look like in 4 or 8 weeks from now." Thomas Strobl, Wolfgang Schäuble's son-in-law and deputy minister-president of Baden-Württemberg agreed: "Just remember the case of Martin Schulz..."

- Then Laschet's predecessor Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer gave a furious speech, telling the board members that giving the nomination to anyone but Laschet would "damage the party (...) and don't make any excuses, you've all been elected (by our members) to make this decision tonight!"

- The most amusing part of the meeting was what happened to Reiner Haseloff, minister-president of Saxony-Anhalt and one of Söder's most vocal supporters. He argued in favor of Söder, claiming that "there is a clear preference for him" and that "we have a joint position about this in Eastern Germany." Must have been quite impressive. The problem was that shortly thereafter, Jan Redmann (CDU group leader in Brandenburg) and Michael Sack (CDU chairman in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) contradicted him, making Haseloff look like an idiot or liar. Redmann: "There is no consensus on this. Most of our board members are pro-Laschet, while our party base has no clear favorite." Sack: "In Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, the board has voted 20-8 in favor of Laschet and we support him." Ouch.

- Further support for Laschet from board members representing the interest of cities, workers, businesses (i.e., Carsten Linnemann, a well-known Merz ally), and women. Particularly powerful statement from the only board member of Turkish descent, Serap Güler.

What do we learn?

1. Polls are not how German parties select their Kanzlerkandidat*innen. Period.
2. The CDU is rational enough to know that humiliating a party chairman only four months after his election is not a good long-term strategy. They opted for stability.
3. The CSU could propose Jesus next time - he would have no chance without sufficient CDU support. As I have written before, the CSU has been punching above its weight for years, and this became clear once again. Although organizationally independent, it is only one (powerful) state party among 16.
4. Behaving Machiavellian and opportunistic only helps you as long as you don't earn a reputation for it. It became evident that many board members were at great unease with Söder's political style.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Incredible own goal by the CDU. Hoping for a 1998-style election now.

[It's Perro Sanxe wot won it]

Hoping for a 1998-style election now.

Maybe history repeats itself: after 16 years in government, the CDU runs a candidate that is considered part of the status quo and not the optimal choice for winning the election. He fails and is beaten by someone belonging the pragmatic wing of the main center-left party. Perhaps, a Bavarian is chosen 4 years later to challenge the new ruling coalition.

[Hnv1]

what are the burning topics for the CSU nowadays? just immigration? when I was young they held dear the protection of the catholic church, paddling children by parents, and other niche things; and were actually ok with some populist economic items more than mainstream CDU and FDP.

[President Johnson]

I wonder what this stunt has accomplished now if Söder actually backs down now? He could have done so a week ago. However, there's a chance he won't. And while I personally prefer Laschet, I'm not sure anymore whether Söder wouldn't be better for two reasons: First, after the Merkel years and depolarizing, lame politics, Söder would at least be more polarizing, just like Kohl was. And second, as I wrote already, I see Söder as someone better equipped to handle autocrats in the world. We need someone who's doing straight talk with Erdogan and Putin.

On the other hand, Laschet's low approvals and Baerbock's inexperience may give Scholz an opening as the true alternative. All he needs is gaining a few points in a volatile environment and surpass the Greens while the Union drops well under 30%.

[palandio]

what are the burning topics for the CSU nowadays? just immigration? when I was young they held dear the protection of the catholic church, paddling children by parents, and other niche things; and were actually ok with some populist economic items more than mainstream CDU and FDP.

Not even immigration anymore.

The 2018 Bavarian Landtag elections showed that while most Bavarian voters don't endorse left-of-center positions on this issue (Greens/SPD/Linke went slightly down from 31.3% to 30.5%), the useless brawls with Merkel drove voters away from the CSU, particularly towards the Free Voters. On the other hand the AfD still got 10.2%, mostly from non-voters, minor right-wing and far-right parties and voters that had left the CSU even before immigration became a hot topic, so it became increasingly clear that for the time being the CSU didn't have the means to push the AfD below 5%.

Altogether the CSU concluded that it was better to relegate the immigration issue to third tier. Additionally Söder and the CSU feared that they were missing political trends on climate change, environmental protection (e.g. insects) and some social issues.

[President Johnson]

Breaking: According to Tagesschau, Söder wants to accept CDU chairboard vote.

Lmao. What has this accomplished now?

https://twitter.com/tagesschau/status/1384431474032746497

[Pick Up the Phone]

Incredible own goal by the CDU. Hoping for a 1998-style election now.

Remains to be seen. I think Peter Tauber - the former CDU Secretary General - was not entirely wrong when he tweeted the following earlier this morning:

https://twitter.com/petertauber/status/1384373002377351168

(My thesis: Whoever wins an election against Hannelore Kraft, prevails against Friedrich Merz, and beats Markus Söder, can become Chancellor).

I also don't think that destroying a newly-elected chairman for the sake of Söder's thirst for power would have been less of an own goal. You could call it a lose-lose situation.
_____

what are the burning topics for the CSU nowadays? just immigration? when I was young they held dear the protection of the catholic church, paddling children by parents, and other niche things; and were actually ok with some populist economic items more than mainstream CDU and FDP.

- Immigration? Not really anymore. Worked for them in 2015-16 but completely poisoned the CDU-CSU relationship and laid the foundation for the current climate of distrust.
- Catholic issues? Same. The CSU still cultivates a superficial Catholicism but the influence of the Church is in stark decline - and there have been some ugly clashes over the last years. Many Catholic bishops and priests have fiercely criticized the CSU's anti-asylum polemics, with more than one asking whether the party deserves to call itself 'Christian' anymore. There remains a certain commitment against e.g. abortion and euthanasia but it is half-hearted.
- Paddling children? Outlawed in Germany for years now. Proposing something like this could easily end your political career today. Even if you're a CSU politician.

So what is the CSU about? Economically, the party is populist-regionalist. It never was as market liberal as some CDU state parties but seeks to combine business-friendly policies with a distinctively Bavarian "we care for the little guy" attitude. Works quite well if you ask me. Socially, it's mostly about domestic security (i.e., pro-police etc.) and resistance against issues such as cannabis legalization. It also adopted some more environmentalist positions recently - mostly to slow down the rise of the Greens.

But, obviously, the only issue the CSU really cares about is power. It definitely is the most power-conscious party in Germany. And not only because of Söder. 

[Pick Up the Phone]

It's official now. Söder has just conceded.

[President Johnson]

Söder should have insisted for a "primary" by allowing all CDU and CSU members to vote for their preferred candidate a few months ago. He would have won such a vote in all likelyhood. One way or the other, it would have given the winner more legitimization than this backroom deal which is clearly against the will of members, Bundestag members and the electorate as a whole. Laschet also could have prevented this drama by immediately insisting on the candidacy after winning the CDU leadership. I think both have damaged themselves.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Söder should have insisted for a "primary" by allowing all CDU and CSU members to vote for their preferred candidate a few months ago. He would have won such a vote in all likelyhood. One way or the other, it would have given the winner more legitimization than this backroom deal which is clearly against the will of members, Bundestag members and the electorate as a whole. Laschet also could have prevented this drama by immediately insisting on the candidacy after winning the CDU leadership. I think both have damaged themselves.

The optics of the CDU/CSU membership voting against the CDU executive board's officially preferred candidate (who at the same time is also the CDU chairman) would have been bad too though. Politically, holding a primary is just as bad as not holding one at this point

[parochial boy]

Re how conservative the CSU is, the funny thing is that Laschet actually does have some fairly close links to nutcase ultra-conservative catholics

Anywa, given his seemingly unending ability to eventually pull it out of the bag, it might be worth admitting that he might be a rather better political operator than is usually accepted?

[Middle-aged Europe]

Re how conservative the CSU is, the funny thing is that Laschet actually does have some fairly close links to nutcase ultra-conservative catholics

Anywa, given his seemingly unending ability to eventually pull it out of the bag, it might be worth admitting that he might be a rather better political operator than is usually accepted?

Laschet had some pivotal key allies from deep within the party's establishment on his side. Notably the CDU's elder statesman no. 1, Wolfgang Schäuble, who had pushed heavily for Laschet both in media interviews and in the executive board's sessions during the past week. And I guess nobody dared to go against he old man's wishes.

Also, the whole situation had started to contain at least an implied threat: Either you make Laschet Chancellor-candidate or you can start looking for a new party chairman. That kind of thing usually works, unless they really wanted to get rid of their chairman three months after the start of his first term and five months before the next Bundestag election.

[Omega21]

Re how conservative the CSU is, the funny thing is that Laschet actually does have some fairly close links to nutcase ultra-conservative catholics

Anywa, given his seemingly unending ability to eventually pull it out of the bag, it might be worth admitting that he might be a rather better political operator than is usually accepted?

CDU < 27% with Laschet. >35% with Söder.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

According to NDR Info there are numerous CDU members that have written to their Bundestag member that they are going to leave the party or already have. What a surprise!

[parochial boy]

Laschet had some pivotal key allies from deep within the party's establishment on his side. Notably the CDU's elder statesman no. 1, Wolfgang Schäuble, who had pushed heavily for Laschet both in media interviews and in the executive board's sessions during the past week. And I guess nobody dared to go against he old man's wishes.

Also, the whole situation had started to contain at least an implied threat: Either you make Laschet Chancellor-candidate or you can start looking for a new party chairman. That kind of thing usually works, unless they really wanted to get rid of their chairman three months after the start of his first term and five months before the next Bundestag election.

Implied question as to why this is the case though, these things don't happen in a vacuum, so there is clearly some reason as to why Laschet landed in the position he has, with the support he has. Like he oveperformed in NRW in 2017, in the leadership race - it happens often enough that I don't think we should necessarily run around with the perception that he is just completely crap that seems to have mostly been developed post-hoc in the placing him head to head with Söder

CDU < 27% with Laschet. >35% with Söder.

February 2017: "the electorate loves Martin Schulz".

(and ftr, I would be very happy for Laschet to turn out to be a crap candidate who hands the chancellorship over to the Greens )

Might be a good idea to drop the german memes too / or at least translate them (admitting I've been guilty of the same in the past), as has been mentioned, most of the people reading this thread aren't going to be able to understand them.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Laschet had some pivotal key allies from deep within the party's establishment on his side. Notably the CDU's elder statesman no. 1, Wolfgang Schäuble, who had pushed heavily for Laschet both in media interviews and in the executive board's sessions during the past week. And I guess nobody dared to go against he old man's wishes.

Also, the whole situation had started to contain at least an implied threat: Either you make Laschet Chancellor-candidate or you can start looking for a new party chairman. That kind of thing usually works, unless they really wanted to get rid of their chairman three months after the start of his first term and five months before the next Bundestag election.

Implied question as to why this is the case though, these things don't happen in a vacuum, so there is clearly some reason as to why Laschet landed in the position he has, with the support he has. Like he oveperformed in NRW in 2017, in the leadership race - it happens often enough that I don't think we should necessarily run around with the perception that he is just completely crap that seems to have mostly been developed post-hoc in the placing him head to head with Söder

Angela Merkel's initial preferred successor AKK turned out to be dud and Laschet was the next closest thing to her, ideologically speaking. Friedrich Merz is a loose cannon everyone in the party establishment fears. Jens Spahn had relinquished his leadership claims in favour of Laschet last year, and due to the botched start of the vaccination campaign his reputation was also recently tarnished.

Of course, given the events of the last couple of days one could certainly attest Laschet a lot of stamina and resilience. To successfully defeat a much more popular opponent like Söder requires balls as much as it requires nerves of steel. That's certainly an advantage even if he's a bit of a pudding when it comes to hard political issues, e.g. Laschet's often inconsistent flip-flopping on Corona measures etc.