NC-SEN: Roy Cooper vs Mark Walker?

[Ferguson97]

How does the race shake out if it's Cooper vs Walker?

[Tekken_Guy]

It doesn’t. Because a Cooper win means Governor Mark Robinson.

[UncleSam]

Lean Walker. Cooper would have a good shot though.

[UWS]

Cooper can’t run because if he does, the governorship flips to the Republicans.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

NC is Lean R until a D explored a run, but there is a note on Cook ratings in WI Sen, he had WI Gov Lean R in 2018, until it was clear that Evers, not Walker was gonna win. Evers was leading in every poll

Cook has an R bias on WI since 2018, WI is the TIPPING PT race of this Election. If D's didn't win GA, NC was a must win

[If my soul was made of stone]

As I've said in other threads about the Gov-to-Sen pipeline, I think many will see Cooper differently as a potential part of a nationalized Senate caucus than they see him as a state figurehead and check on some of the excesses of the state's firmly R legislature. I don't think his appeal will translate that well, especially if the federal Dem trifecta stakes some more progressive stances that he could be tied to unfavorably. As is standard with North Carolina, I'd call it Titanium Lean R

[MT Treasurer]

Cooper would have a better chance than whoever the Democrats put up in WI and would have been slightly favored in another Trump midterm, but a Senate campaign after two years of a D trifecta in a very R-leaning environment will expose him as the generic D/reliable D vote that he is. Walker wins by ~4 points.

I’d also add that Cooper was extremely overrated in 2016 -- very few people expected the race to be as close as it was, and you could argue that Republicans could have won it if they had gone nuclear on him (which they would in 2022 if he were to run for Senate).

[Suburbia]

It doesn’t. Because a Cooper win means Governor Mark Robinson.

Exactly. And Cooper is not running for Senate.

[Xing]

Cooper would make it close, but other than gubernatorial races, North Carolina, not Georgia, has constantly been the “Charlie Brown and the football” state for Democrats, and this would probably end up being another example of that.

[Chips]

Cooper can’t run because if he does, the governorship flips to the Republicans.