DC statehood Megathread (pg 33 - Manchin questioning constitutionality)

[emailking]

So what are the actual odds of this passing? Haven't been fully paying attention to it.

According to Peak Harry, 100%.

I'm a lot more dubious. It requires Manchin and Sinema agreeing the filibuster should not apply to statehood. And Sinema says everything should require a 60 vote threshold.

[CookieDamage]

So what are the actual odds of this passing? Haven't been fully paying attention to it.

According to Peak Harry, 100%.

I'm a lot more dubious. It requires Manchin and Sinema agreeing the filibuster should not apply to statehood. And Sinema says everything should require a 60 vote threshold.

What Sinema says =/= actual rules.

[7,052,770]

So what are the actual odds of this passing? Haven't been fully paying attention to it.

According to Peak Harry, 100%.

I'm a lot more dubious. It requires Manchin and Sinema agreeing the filibuster should not apply to statehood. And Sinema says everything should require a 60 vote threshold.

**100% minus whatever the probability Dems lose control of a House later this year somehow.

[MasterJedi]

So what are the actual odds of this passing? Haven't been fully paying attention to it.

According to Peak Harry, 100%.

I'm a lot more dubious. It requires Manchin and Sinema agreeing the filibuster should not apply to statehood. And Sinema says everything should require a 60 vote threshold.

**100% minus whatever the probability Dems lose control of a House later this year somehow.

Well, I hope you're right.

[emailking]

So what are the actual odds of this passing? Haven't been fully paying attention to it.

According to Peak Harry, 100%.

I'm a lot more dubious. It requires Manchin and Sinema agreeing the filibuster should not apply to statehood. And Sinema says everything should require a 60 vote threshold.

What Sinema says =/= actual rules.

Ok? She needs to vote to uphold the filibuster won't apply. So what she thinks matters.

[CookieDamage]

So what are the actual odds of this passing? Haven't been fully paying attention to it.

According to Peak Harry, 100%.

I'm a lot more dubious. It requires Manchin and Sinema agreeing the filibuster should not apply to statehood. And Sinema says everything should require a 60 vote threshold.

What Sinema says =/= actual rules.

Ok? She needs to vote to uphold the filibuster won't apply. So what she thinks matters.

If she votes against statehood arguing that it needs the filibuster (it doesnt), she'll be seeing her 39% approval rating plummet even further.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

So what are the actual odds of this passing? Haven't been fully paying attention to it.

According to Peak Harry, 100%.

I'm a lot more dubious. It requires Manchin and Sinema agreeing the filibuster should not apply to statehood. And Sinema says everything should require a 60 vote threshold.

What Sinema says =/= actual rules.

Ok? She needs to vote to uphold the filibuster won't apply. So what she thinks matters.

I think there are suggestions that the filibuster exemption in this case could be ruled by the parliamentarian, not a majority vote of the Senate changing the standing rules (because the admission of new states is governed by a different clause of the constitution than ordinary legislation).

[emailking]

I think there are suggestions that the filibuster exemption in this case could be ruled by the parliamentarian, not a majority vote of the Senate changing the standing rules (because the admission of new states is governed by a different clause of the constitution than ordinary legislation).

Can't a Republican object to the ruling, necessitating the vote?

[emailking]

If she votes against statehood arguing that it needs the filibuster (it doesnt), she'll be seeing her 39% approval rating plummet even further.

I don't think she'd vote against statehood, just the procedural steps.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

If she votes against statehood arguing that it needs the filibuster (it doesnt), she'll be seeing her 39% approval rating plummet even further.

I don't think she'd vote against statehood, just the procedural steps.

There’s no way statehood happens without the procedural steps.

[brucejoel99]

I hope that once this passes they have a referendum to take “Washington” out of the official name.

Even if that were within the realm of possibility (it's not), it'd probably take another Act of Congress to codify such a referendum result.

Wouldn't it? Didn't Rhode Island just have a referendum to ditch "and Providence Plantations" from its official name last year?

Rhode Island's a bit special, being one of the original states whose admission to the Union didn't necessitate an enabling act/act of admission. But the 1989 initiative in ND to change the state's name to "Dakota," for instance, would've required an Act of Congress codifying the name change had it passed, since ND's name - North Dakota - had been explicitly provided for in its 1889 enabling act; hence why the same would likely be the case were DC admitted as "Washington, D.C.," & the new state then wanted to remove Washington from its name.

[7,052,770]

If she votes against statehood arguing that it needs the filibuster (it doesnt), she'll be seeing her 39% approval rating plummet even further.

I don't think she'd vote against statehood, just the procedural steps.

I don't think she'll vote against either. She obviously has a lot of fun grandstanding but she's not going to tell 700,000 Americans they don't deserve representation when she is the deciding vote.

[emailking]

If she votes against statehood arguing that it needs the filibuster (it doesnt), she'll be seeing her 39% approval rating plummet even further.

I don't think she'd vote against statehood, just the procedural steps.

There’s no way statehood happens without the procedural steps.

Yeah that's why I don't think any of it happens.

[LabourJersey]

If she votes against statehood arguing that it needs the filibuster (it doesnt), she'll be seeing her 39% approval rating plummet even further.

I don't think she'd vote against statehood, just the procedural steps.

How many procedural steps are there in admitting a state anyway?

[emailking]

How many procedural steps are there in admitting a state anyway?

I don't know but the one I'm worried about is the vote to not have a filibuster. If they can get past/around that, I think it goes through.

[LabourJersey]

How many procedural steps are there in admitting a state anyway?

I don't know but the one I'm worried about is the vote to not have a filibuster. If they can get past/around that, I think it goes through.

Makes sense, that'll be the biggest barrier. I think if the Parliamentarian rules it won't have a filibuster than I think it's anyone's ballgame in terms of statehood actually happening.

[7,052,770]

Crossposting from the other thread:

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/26/us/dc-statehood-voting-rights.html

Senate Democrats are getting pressured to add DC statehood into this bill.

And, like, duhhhh, right? Why the hell would you pass a law that provides "support" for DC statehood but doesn't actually enact it? If you're going to go to such lengths to pass voting rights protection, presumably killing or heavily nerfing the filibuster for this bill, why not put everything in there rather than having yet another huge fight? If Manchin, Sinema, and the rest are willing to do what it takes to pass HR1 (and I think they are), they'll also pass DC statehood.

In fact, they should go ahead and pre-admit Puerto Rico, Marianas, and the Virgin Islands as states as well. When Hawaii and Alaska were admitted by Congress, the admission was preconditioned on having a positive statewide referendum, a state constitution transmitted to the president, and a presidential proclamation to declare them to be a state. Thus, use this act to admit 54 states, effective when all of that happens. DC has already had their referendum and will transmit their constitution to Biden immediately. PR has had their referendum, and can transmit their constitution when the territorial government is ready. The other 2 aren't nearly as far along in the process, but this will allow them to become states immediately once they're ready.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Crossposting from the other thread:

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/26/us/dc-statehood-voting-rights.html

Senate Democrats are getting pressured to add DC statehood into this bill.

And, like, duhhhh, right? Why the hell would you pass a law that provides "support" for DC statehood but doesn't actually enact it? If you're going to go to such lengths to pass voting rights protection, presumably killing or heavily nerfing the filibuster for this bill, why not put everything in there rather than having yet another huge fight? If Manchin, Sinema, and the rest are willing to do what it takes to pass HR1 (and I think they are), they'll also pass DC statehood.

In fact, they should go ahead and pre-admit Puerto Rico, Marianas, and the Virgin Islands as states as well. When Hawaii and Alaska were admitted by Congress, the admission was preconditioned on having a positive statewide referendum, a state constitution transmitted to the president, and a presidential proclamation to declare them to be a state. Thus, use this act to admit 54 states, effective when all of that happens. DC has already had their referendum and will transmit their constitution to Biden immediately. PR has had their referendum, and can transmit their constitution when the territorial government is ready. The other 2 aren't nearly as far along in the process, but this will allow them to become states immediately once they're ready.

Actually, no. While the 2020 Puerto Rican referendum was finally an unambiguous referendum in favor of Statehood in the abstract. There wasn't a referendum on the specific terms of Statehood.  In previous admissions, the order has been adoption of a State Constitution, followed by acceptance thereof by the Territory and the Congress under such terms as set by Congress.  There's no certainty that terms offered by Congress will be acceptable to the people of Puerto Rico. As I've mentioned before, it's uncertain how much of the recent increase in support there in Puerto Rico is based upon the hope it would prove a way out of the Puerto Rican debt crisis, but I see zero chance that a Puerto Rican statehood bill can pass this Congress without the new State assuming all current Commonwealth debt.

[OneJ]

https://www.wusa9.com/article/news/local/dc/house-of-representatives-committee-expected-to-vote-on-dc-statehood-bill-this-week/65-7a2ea180-3cd6-4faa-83e3-bc18df3044f0

WASHINGTON — The push for D.C. statehood continues this week. The U.S. House of Representatives is expected to vote on the D.C. statehood bill within the next two weeks, according to DC Delegate Eleanor Holmes Norton (D).

Norton said the House Oversight and Reform Committee will mark up and vote on the statehood bill Wednesday, April 14. A full House vote on the statehood bill is expected the week of April 19.

[Badger]

Crossposting from the other thread:

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/26/us/dc-statehood-voting-rights.html

Senate Democrats are getting pressured to add DC statehood into this bill.

And, like, duhhhh, right? Why the hell would you pass a law that provides "support" for DC statehood but doesn't actually enact it? If you're going to go to such lengths to pass voting rights protection, presumably killing or heavily nerfing the filibuster for this bill, why not put everything in there rather than having yet another huge fight? If Manchin, Sinema, and the rest are willing to do what it takes to pass HR1 (and I think they are), they'll also pass DC statehood.

In fact, they should go ahead and pre-admit Puerto Rico, Marianas, and the Virgin Islands as states as well. When Hawaii and Alaska were admitted by Congress, the admission was preconditioned on having a positive statewide referendum, a state constitution transmitted to the president, and a presidential proclamation to declare them to be a state. Thus, use this act to admit 54 states, effective when all of that happens. DC has already had their referendum and will transmit their constitution to Biden immediately. PR has had their referendum, and can transmit their constitution when the territorial government is ready. The other 2 aren't nearly as far along in the process, but this will allow them to become states immediately once they're ready.

Actually, no. While the 2020 Puerto Rican referendum was finally an unambiguous referendum in favor of Statehood in the abstract. There wasn't a referendum on the specific terms of Statehood.  In previous admissions, the order has been adoption of a State Constitution, followed by acceptance thereof by the Territory and the Congress under such terms as set by Congress.  There's no certainty that terms offered by Congress will be acceptable to the people of Puerto Rico. As I've mentioned before, it's uncertain how much of the recent increase in support there in Puerto Rico is based upon the hope it would prove a way out of the Puerto Rican debt crisis, but I see zero chance that a Puerto Rican statehood bill can pass this Congress without the new State assuming all current Commonwealth debt.

All this, plus a sub-53% yes vote actually kinda was ambiguous. Or at least an underwhelming basiz on which to proceed towards statehood. And I say that as a PR statehood supporter.

[MillennialModerate]

Crossposting from the other thread:

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/26/us/dc-statehood-voting-rights.html

Senate Democrats are getting pressured to add DC statehood into this bill.

And, like, duhhhh, right? Why the hell would you pass a law that provides "support" for DC statehood but doesn't actually enact it? If you're going to go to such lengths to pass voting rights protection, presumably killing or heavily nerfing the filibuster for this bill, why not put everything in there rather than having yet another huge fight? If Manchin, Sinema, and the rest are willing to do what it takes to pass HR1 (and I think they are), they'll also pass DC statehood.

In fact, they should go ahead and pre-admit Puerto Rico, Marianas, and the Virgin Islands as states as well. When Hawaii and Alaska were admitted by Congress, the admission was preconditioned on having a positive statewide referendum, a state constitution transmitted to the president, and a presidential proclamation to declare them to be a state. Thus, use this act to admit 54 states, effective when all of that happens. DC has already had their referendum and will transmit their constitution to Biden immediately. PR has had their referendum, and can transmit their constitution when the territorial government is ready. The other 2 aren't nearly as far along in the process, but this will allow them to become states immediately once they're ready.

Actually, no. While the 2020 Puerto Rican referendum was finally an unambiguous referendum in favor of Statehood in the abstract. There wasn't a referendum on the specific terms of Statehood.  In previous admissions, the order has been adoption of a State Constitution, followed by acceptance thereof by the Territory and the Congress under such terms as set by Congress.  There's no certainty that terms offered by Congress will be acceptable to the people of Puerto Rico. As I've mentioned before, it's uncertain how much of the recent increase in support there in Puerto Rico is based upon the hope it would prove a way out of the Puerto Rican debt crisis, but I see zero chance that a Puerto Rican statehood bill can pass this Congress without the new State assuming all current Commonwealth debt.

Terms or no terms - the people voted for statehood. They didn’t vote for “statehood if the terms are right”. They voted for statehood. And that’s what they should get. Period. Or at minimum have the state be pre-accepted dependent on once the statehood ratified a constitution or whatever they have to do. The point is to pass the congressional/presidential hurdle asap so it’s a done deal when ready.

As for DC. It should’ve been a state by now and the fact it isn’t is repulsive, color me skeptical that will happen but hey. At least it’s going to pass the house which could put the issue in the national spotlight.

I’m curious if PR statehood could be pushed through reconciliation - making PR a state would require residents to pay federal INCOME taxes which would have an impact on the budget... I know it’s a reach but just curious.

If only statehood didn’t require fillibuster proof votes. This and gerrymander prevention are critical but the Democrats seem content on letting the GOP con their way back into power so

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yeah Manchin and Sinema just said they aren't for lifting of the Filibuster, it's not gonna pass, Mcconnell just said that Rs are gonna block DC Statehood

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Crossposting from the other thread:

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/26/us/dc-statehood-voting-rights.html

Senate Democrats are getting pressured to add DC statehood into this bill.

And, like, duhhhh, right? Why the hell would you pass a law that provides "support" for DC statehood but doesn't actually enact it? If you're going to go to such lengths to pass voting rights protection, presumably killing or heavily nerfing the filibuster for this bill, why not put everything in there rather than having yet another huge fight? If Manchin, Sinema, and the rest are willing to do what it takes to pass HR1 (and I think they are), they'll also pass DC statehood.

In fact, they should go ahead and pre-admit Puerto Rico, Marianas, and the Virgin Islands as states as well. When Hawaii and Alaska were admitted by Congress, the admission was preconditioned on having a positive statewide referendum, a state constitution transmitted to the president, and a presidential proclamation to declare them to be a state. Thus, use this act to admit 54 states, effective when all of that happens. DC has already had their referendum and will transmit their constitution to Biden immediately. PR has had their referendum, and can transmit their constitution when the territorial government is ready. The other 2 aren't nearly as far along in the process, but this will allow them to become states immediately once they're ready.

Actually, no. While the 2020 Puerto Rican referendum was finally an unambiguous referendum in favor of Statehood in the abstract. There wasn't a referendum on the specific terms of Statehood.  In previous admissions, the order has been adoption of a State Constitution, followed by acceptance thereof by the Territory and the Congress under such terms as set by Congress.  There's no certainty that terms offered by Congress will be acceptable to the people of Puerto Rico. As I've mentioned before, it's uncertain how much of the recent increase in support there in Puerto Rico is based upon the hope it would prove a way out of the Puerto Rican debt crisis, but I see zero chance that a Puerto Rican statehood bill can pass this Congress without the new State assuming all current Commonwealth debt.

Terms or no terms - the people voted for statehood. They didn’t vote for “statehood if the terms are right”. They voted for statehood. And that’s what they should get. Period. Or at minimum have the state be pre-accepted dependent on once the statehood ratified a constitution or whatever they have to do. The point is to pass the congressional/presidential hurdle asap so it’s a done deal when ready.

As for DC. It should’ve been a state by now and the fact it isn’t is repulsive, color me skeptical that will happen but hey. At least it’s going to pass the house which could put the issue in the national spotlight.

I’m curious if PR statehood could be pushed through reconciliation - making PR a state would require residents to pay federal INCOME taxes which would have an impact on the budget... I know it’s a reach but just curious.

If only statehood didn’t require fillibuster proof votes. This and gerrymander prevention are critical but the Democrats seem content on letting the GOP con their way back into power so

LATINOS are already too many Entitlements, look at FL, IL, CA, TX and NY, Section 8 vouchers due to Dreamers are given out to Asian and Latinos over everyone else, and you want to make PR a State, Manchin already said he doesn't support PR Statehood but DC Statehood yes due to proximity to WVA

It's already a Commonwealth

[MillennialModerate]

Crossposting from the other thread:

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/26/us/dc-statehood-voting-rights.html

Senate Democrats are getting pressured to add DC statehood into this bill.

And, like, duhhhh, right? Why the hell would you pass a law that provides "support" for DC statehood but doesn't actually enact it? If you're going to go to such lengths to pass voting rights protection, presumably killing or heavily nerfing the filibuster for this bill, why not put everything in there rather than having yet another huge fight? If Manchin, Sinema, and the rest are willing to do what it takes to pass HR1 (and I think they are), they'll also pass DC statehood.

In fact, they should go ahead and pre-admit Puerto Rico, Marianas, and the Virgin Islands as states as well. When Hawaii and Alaska were admitted by Congress, the admission was preconditioned on having a positive statewide referendum, a state constitution transmitted to the president, and a presidential proclamation to declare them to be a state. Thus, use this act to admit 54 states, effective when all of that happens. DC has already had their referendum and will transmit their constitution to Biden immediately. PR has had their referendum, and can transmit their constitution when the territorial government is ready. The other 2 aren't nearly as far along in the process, but this will allow them to become states immediately once they're ready.

Actually, no. While the 2020 Puerto Rican referendum was finally an unambiguous referendum in favor of Statehood in the abstract. There wasn't a referendum on the specific terms of Statehood.  In previous admissions, the order has been adoption of a State Constitution, followed by acceptance thereof by the Territory and the Congress under such terms as set by Congress.  There's no certainty that terms offered by Congress will be acceptable to the people of Puerto Rico. As I've mentioned before, it's uncertain how much of the recent increase in support there in Puerto Rico is based upon the hope it would prove a way out of the Puerto Rican debt crisis, but I see zero chance that a Puerto Rican statehood bill can pass this Congress without the new State assuming all current Commonwealth debt.

Terms or no terms - the people voted for statehood. They didn’t vote for “statehood if the terms are right”. They voted for statehood. And that’s what they should get. Period. Or at minimum have the state be pre-accepted dependent on once the statehood ratified a constitution or whatever they have to do. The point is to pass the congressional/presidential hurdle asap so it’s a done deal when ready.

As for DC. It should’ve been a state by now and the fact it isn’t is repulsive, color me skeptical that will happen but hey. At least it’s going to pass the house which could put the issue in the national spotlight.

I’m curious if PR statehood could be pushed through reconciliation - making PR a state would require residents to pay federal INCOME taxes which would have an impact on the budget... I know it’s a reach but just curious.

If only statehood didn’t require fillibuster proof votes. This and gerrymander prevention are critical but the Democrats seem content on letting the GOP con their way back into power so

LATINOS are already too many Entitlements, look at FL, IL, CA, TX and NY, Section 8 vouchers due to Dreamers are given out to Asian and Latinos over everyone else, and you want to make PR a State, Manchin already said he doesn't support PR Statehood but DC Statehood yes due to proximity to WVA

It's already a Commonwealth

If it takes just 50 to pass, I think Manchin would get on board.

But uh sweet racist thinking you got there about the Latinos taking too many entitlements....

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Crossposting from the other thread:

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/26/us/dc-statehood-voting-rights.html

Senate Democrats are getting pressured to add DC statehood into this bill.

And, like, duhhhh, right? Why the hell would you pass a law that provides "support" for DC statehood but doesn't actually enact it? If you're going to go to such lengths to pass voting rights protection, presumably killing or heavily nerfing the filibuster for this bill, why not put everything in there rather than having yet another huge fight? If Manchin, Sinema, and the rest are willing to do what it takes to pass HR1 (and I think they are), they'll also pass DC statehood.

In fact, they should go ahead and pre-admit Puerto Rico, Marianas, and the Virgin Islands as states as well. When Hawaii and Alaska were admitted by Congress, the admission was preconditioned on having a positive statewide referendum, a state constitution transmitted to the president, and a presidential proclamation to declare them to be a state. Thus, use this act to admit 54 states, effective when all of that happens. DC has already had their referendum and will transmit their constitution to Biden immediately. PR has had their referendum, and can transmit their constitution when the territorial government is ready. The other 2 aren't nearly as far along in the process, but this will allow them to become states immediately once they're ready.

Actually, no. While the 2020 Puerto Rican referendum was finally an unambiguous referendum in favor of Statehood in the abstract. There wasn't a referendum on the specific terms of Statehood.  In previous admissions, the order has been adoption of a State Constitution, followed by acceptance thereof by the Territory and the Congress under such terms as set by Congress.  There's no certainty that terms offered by Congress will be acceptable to the people of Puerto Rico. As I've mentioned before, it's uncertain how much of the recent increase in support there in Puerto Rico is based upon the hope it would prove a way out of the Puerto Rican debt crisis, but I see zero chance that a Puerto Rican statehood bill can pass this Congress without the new State assuming all current Commonwealth debt.

Terms or no terms - the people voted for statehood. They didn’t vote for “statehood if the terms are right”. They voted for statehood. And that’s what they should get. Period. Or at minimum have the state be pre-accepted dependent on once the statehood ratified a constitution or whatever they have to do. The point is to pass the congressional/presidential hurdle asap so it’s a done deal when ready.

As for DC. It should’ve been a state by now and the fact it isn’t is repulsive, color me skeptical that will happen but hey. At least it’s going to pass the house which could put the issue in the national spotlight.

I’m curious if PR statehood could be pushed through reconciliation - making PR a state would require residents to pay federal INCOME taxes which would have an impact on the budget... I know it’s a reach but just curious.

If only statehood didn’t require fillibuster proof votes. This and gerrymander prevention are critical but the Democrats seem content on letting the GOP con their way back into power so

LATINOS are already too many Entitlements, look at FL, IL, CA, TX and NY, Section 8 vouchers due to Dreamers are given out to Asian and Latinos over everyone else, and you want to make PR a State, Manchin already said he doesn't support PR Statehood but DC Statehood yes due to proximity to WVA

It's already a Commonwealth

If it takes just 50 to pass, I think Manchin would get on board.

But uh sweet racist thinking you got there about the Latinos taking too many entitlements....

Yes I live in LAX, you live in MA, the big three cities Chicago, LA and NY all have an Latino problem, they are in front of the line of Section 8 vouchers for Housing while Afro Americans with fewer kids are on the back of the line of Housing

There are 700 K Homeless come to skid row and they are Black not any other race, they gave up due to no affordable housing and they are the ones not getting Covid vaccines or Chest x-rays for TB, that's why all shelters are closed to publuc