PA GOV 2022: Stick a fork in it

[Respect and Compassion]

Shapiro's fundraising makes me feel better but recent election cycles show us (e.g. Michael Bloomberg) that money may not be enough to counteract heavily unfavorable political environments. Working class voters in Pennsylvania are shifting like college women did in 2018. Keep in mind that Trump got 48.8% in 2020. It doesn't take a significant shift at all to flip the state. I would say that in retrospect, Scott Walker had a better chance of holding on in 2018 than the Democrats do in holding onto Pennsylvania in 2022.

PredictIt has a history of being overly bulling on Democratic Party candidates' chances. They have it at 63c R, 40c D right now. Pennsylvania Gubernatorial seems Lean R to me at the very least, unfortunately.

[wbrocks67]

Not sure how anyone would think this is a Lean R race right now. We're talking about Mastriano and Barletta here, and even in a red environment, Shapiro has a historical track record of doing better in traditionally R counties as well.

[wbrocks67]

and Corman likely OUT

https://twitter.com/Owens_abc27/status/1513904470224216065

[Lambsbread]

and Corman likely OUT

https://twitter.com/Owens_abc27/status/1513904470224216065

Down goes McSwain.

https://twitter.com/JonathanTamari/status/1513890088102645774

LMAOOOO

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/alweaver22/status/1513909191177560082

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Down goes McSwain.

https://twitter.com/JonathanTamari/status/1513890088102645774

Wow there goes egg on my face. What did he want him to do?

[JMT]

https://twitter.com/jonathantamari/status/1513982978262769666?s=21&t=Za0Lcnv...

[Lambsbread]

https://twitter.com/jonathantamari/status/1513982978262769666?s=21&t=Za0Lcnv...

What a stupid asshole.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Have been hearing rumors Trump is planning on endorsing Lou Barletta pretty soon.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We need a darn poll forget who Trump endorse to see Shapiro where he stands just like we need an OR Gov poll Betsy Johnson can tip OR to Rs, a ME Gov poll Mills is endangered and WI, PA and MI poll

[Lambsbread]

Have been hearing rumors Trump is planning on endorsing Lou Barletta pretty soon.

Why? He got his ass handed to him in 2018. He's a proven loser. Trump should endorse Mastriano, who will win the primary anyway.

[wbrocks67]

Have been hearing rumors Trump is planning on endorsing Lou Barletta pretty soon.

Why? He got his ass handed to him in 2018. He's a proven loser. Trump should endorse Mastriano, who will win the primary anyway.

+ Mastriano is much more closer to Trump ideologically (though Barletta is crazy too, but Mastriano is bat sh*t)

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Have been hearing rumors Trump is planning on endorsing Lou Barletta pretty soon.

Why? He got his ass handed to him in 2018. He's a proven loser. Trump should endorse Mastriano, who will win the primary anyway.

+ Mastriano is much more closer to Trump ideologically (though Barletta is crazy too, but Mastriano is bat sh*t)

Eh, Trump got annoyed at Mastriano earlier when he implied he was endorsed by Trump when he wasn't.
Barletta has been one of Trump's closest allies, he was one of the first people to endorse him back in 2016 and tbh he's probably closer ideologically to Trump (remember he was one of the most hardline reps on immigration). He also was pushing election fraud stuff, calling for decertification and was one of the "alternate electors".
Trump has had problems with Mastriano before and is very close with Barletta, it seems pretty obvious who he will endorse in this very close primary. And like I said I've been hearing rumors that he'll endorse him soon.

[Senator-elect Spark]

Have been hearing rumors Trump is planning on endorsing Lou Barletta pretty soon.

I seriously doubt Barletta beats Shapiro even in this national environment. Shapiro is a solid fundraiser, debater, and pretty charismatic. Barletta has lost a few races, though I would likely back him.

[Senator Incitatus]

Anyone think the Philadelphia mask mandate will affect the race?

[Lambsbread]

Anyone think the Philadelphia mask mandate will affect the race?

No.

[wbrocks67]

Anyone think the Philadelphia mask mandate will affect the race?

No.

This. First of all, election is still 7 months away so the likelihood that the mandate would still be in effect by then is low (unless there is some massive huge additional surge) - meanwhile, like I've said in other threads - being someone who lives in Philly, a lot of people still wear masks anyway when there wasn't a mandate. So this isn't as huge of a deal as people are making it out to be.

[Lambsbread]

Legitimately the coolest piece of campaign merch I've ever seen:

https://twitter.com/JoshShapiroPA/status/1514590943239933952?s=20&t=r4m1Lwv3...

[wbrocks67]

Shapiro has objectively been running a top-tier campaign. It would be a huge shame if he lost bc of the environment, given that a red wave year is pretty much the only disadvantage he has in this race.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Shapiro has objectively been running a top-tier campaign. It would be a huge shame if he lost bc of the environment, given that a red wave year is pretty much the only disadvantage he has in this race.

Biden Approval are even 467/49 and Biden won the 303 map at 50/45 with even Approvals we will win our 303 states and with 110/15 vote Turnout we can get 413 map

D's are reregistering and registering to vote in the COVID booths and Voting locations next to them for the Homeless canvases on Cali if they're doing it here it's all over

Wolf won so big in 2014/ it was Corbett and he won by 17 in 2018  he ran with Casey, its gonna be alot close

[zoz]

It looks like Barletta is tanking in recent polls. Is this a temporary phenomena, or is this the beginning of the end for his campaign? If so, why is this happening?

[wbrocks67]

It looks like Barletta is tanking in recent polls. Is this a temporary phenomena, or is this the beginning of the end for his campaign? If so, why is this happening?

MTE. You'd think he'd be #1 just based off of name rec and he was the original 'Trump of PA' back in 2018 with that campaign.

[Calthrina950]

Shapiro has objectively been running a top-tier campaign. It would be a huge shame if he lost bc of the environment, given that a red wave year is pretty much the only disadvantage he has in this race.

There have been races which have defied the national mood in previous wave years (i.e., FL-GOV and FL-SEN 2018, MN-GOV and MI-SEN 2014, CO-SEN and NV-SEN 2010, MN-GOV 2006) for both Democrats and Republicans, and I don't think year will be different in that respect. PA-GOV could very well be a mood-defying race for Democrats in 2022.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/PhillyInquirer/status/1518898806405976064

[Lambsbread]

https://twitter.com/PhillyInquirer/status/1518898806405976064

Not really sure why. He should just let the GOP clown car run its course and then run as the sensible alternative to whichever fool they nominate. But I suppose this doesn't hurt. He's got a ton of money.