Is Ohio Gone for Democrats Now?

[MARGINS6729]

Is Ohio gone for Democrats now?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

No, due to fact Sherrod Brown is up for reelection in 2024, and he will win, but Iowa is close to being gone if Grassley doesn't returw

[Sir Mohamed]

No, due to fact Sherrod Brown is up for reelection in 2024, and he will win, but Iowa is close to being gone if Grassley doesn't returw

Brown being up and winning in 2018 didn't help Richard Cordray either.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

OH is has a significant AA population im NE Ohio and Mahoning County flipped R, Sherrod Brown is from Akron Ohio and help Biden win the state, which Biden was leading in a lot of polls before the R wave at the end of the Election

Biden isn't Corday

[TML]

In the current political alignment, the key regions are northeastern and north-central Ohio. Trump was a good fit for this region while Hillary & Biden were terrible fits, because the former ran on protectionism while the latter two were pro-free trade. Sherrod Brown managed to hold these regions by virtue of his protectionist platform. I would like to see how OH would perform if the Republican candidate were more pro-free trade and/or the Democratic candidate were more protectionist before deciding whether this state is "gone" for the Democrats or not.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Why do we get so many threads about OH being gone, it has a significant AA population and will stay a purple state

[pppolitics]

I mean, 2020 shows that Texas is a more enticing target.

So if the Democrats are trying to win the EC, I don't see why they would target Ohio.

[Tintrlvr]

In a number of these states, including but not limited to Ohio and Iowa, I'd like to see what happens once Trump is no longer relevant before declaring trends that only appeared during the Trump era permanent.

[Bootes Void]

yea probably but the state wont ever go 60% for republicans unless its a landslide or republicans gain in urban areas

[Sailor Haumea]

No, due to fact Sherrod Brown is up for reelection in 2024, and he will win, but Iowa is close to being gone if Grassley doesn't returw

Brown being up and winning in 2018 didn't help Richard Cordray either.

Cordray was up against Mike DeWine, who was basically tailor made for suburban Ohio. Note that Cordray ran behind Biden 2020 in suburban counties (Delaware, Montgomery, etc.).

[mileslunn]

For next decade, I would say it is gone, but not necessarily forever.  It could swing back if two things happen

1.  Columbus metro area continues to grow so has more clout

2.  Cincinnati suburbs start voting like Cleveland and especially Columbus.  Cincinnati suburbs still voting quite Republican compared to other suburbs

Also Democrats need to do better in smaller urban centers too.  I don't think rural areas are going to swing back, those are gone.  I think Iowa is gone for good, but its a lot whiter and more rural than Ohio is.

[TheReckoning]

Why do we get so many threads about OH being gone, it has a significant AA population and will stay a purple state

Mississippi also has a significant AA population, doesn’t mean it’s a blue state.

[Adam Griffin]

Yes - and minus the Senate race (which will be gone in 2024), it's been gone for around 6 years now. Anybody with a lick of sense could have seen it.

Triage Ohio.

The rest are still winnable by Democrats.

The southern half of the state is increasingly being influenced by an expansion of Southern cultural hegemony, yet possesses none of the black population necessary to counter the intensity of that effect. The western portion of the state is influenced by the Midwest, but is also the most GOP-friendly portion of the state [and arguably the entire region] and therefore doesn't enjoy the elasticity of the broader region. The eastern portion of the state is influenced by the Northeast (albeit its more Rust Belt variety), but is the least educated and poorest segment of the state: exactly the types who are flocking to the GOP and who have no regrets about it.

Best for Democrats to triage any races not involving Brown right now and not waste millions (tens of millions?) more once again on a state that's gone!

Fundamentally, it comes down to my belief that OH is long gone for Democrats in presidential elections and essentially straddles three regions where none of the advantages but all of the disadvantages for Democrats exist (it takes in the most GOP-friendly and inelastic part of the Midwest, some of the least educated segments of the Northeast & the expanded cultural influence of the South without black voters); I think IA still has the propensity to be elastic enough to vote Democratic if the nominee is winning by 5 points or more in the PV, and I believe Bernie would be well-suited for the state in particular.

The fetish that the Democratic Party continues to have with trying to cling to both OH & FL is dangerous to the long-term viability of the party. These are incredibly expensive and logistically difficult states that suck a disproportionate share of national resources out of other, actually competitive states - especially given that both consistently lean quite a bit to the right compared to the country.

Deducting Senate EVs, the two areas shown here are roughly equal in size (and the non-OH/FL turf has 4 more Senate seats to boot):

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yes - and minus the Senate race (which will be gone in 2024), it's been gone for around 6 years now. Anybody with a lick of sense could have seen it.

Triage Ohio.

The rest are still winnable by Democrats.

The southern half of the state is increasingly being influenced by an expansion of Southern cultural hegemony, yet possesses none of the black population necessary to counter the intensity of that effect. The western portion of the state is influenced by the Midwest, but is also the most GOP-friendly portion of the state [and arguably the entire region] and therefore doesn't enjoy the elasticity of the broader region. The eastern portion of the state is influenced by the Northeast (albeit its more Rust Belt variety), but is the least educated and poorest segment of the state: exactly the types who are flocking to the GOP and who have no regrets about it.

Best for Democrats to triage any races not involving Brown right now and not waste millions (tens of millions?) more once again on a state that's gone!

Fundamentally, it comes down to my belief that OH is long gone for Democrats in presidential elections and essentially straddles three regions where none of the advantages but all of the disadvantages for Democrats exist (it takes in the most GOP-friendly and inelastic part of the Midwest, some of the least educated segments of the Northeast & the expanded cultural influence of the South without black voters); I think IA still has the propensity to be elastic enough to vote Democratic if the nominee is winning by 5 points or more in the PV, and I believe Bernie would be well-suited for the state in particular.

The fetish that the Democratic Party continues to have with trying to cling to both OH & FL is dangerous to the long-term viability of the party. These are incredibly expensive and logistically difficult states that suck a disproportionate share of national resources out of other, actually competitive states - especially given that both consistently lean quite a bit to the right compared to the country.

Deducting Senate EVs, the two areas shown here are roughly equal in size (and the non-OH/FL turf has 4 more Senate seats to boot):

That's no true, Obama had a very lousy midterm in OH in 2010, I'm OH and he came back and beat Mitt Romney in OH with Sherrod Brown on the ballot.  Brown is from Akron Ohio and that's where Biden lost ground Mahoning County.

Rs will have a good midterm in OH with DeWine and Portman but that doesn't mean Brown is DOA

[Adam Griffin]

That's no true, Obama had a very lousy midterm in OH in 2010, I'm OH and he came back and beat Mitt Romney in OH with Sherrod Brown on the ballot.  Brown is from Akron Ohio and that's where Biden lost ground Mahoning County.

Rs will have a good midterm in OH with DeWine and Portman but that doesn't mean Brown is DOA

You might be OH, but this doesn't change the fact that 2010 could easily have been considered a fluke in between two otherwise good elections for the Democrats at the time. Since then, we've had four bad consecutive election cycles in a row in OH. It's not because of a bad cycle or candidate quality or anything else: the state is gone.

[mileslunn]

Why do we get so many threads about OH being gone, it has a significant AA population and will stay a purple state

Mississippi also has a significant AA population, doesn’t mean it’s a blue state.

Two big differences:

1.  Mississippi is in Deep South where racial polarization is much greater.  Democrat support is usually in teens amongst whites there.  Its usually north of 40% amongst whites in Ohio, high 30s at worst.

2.  Ohio has three metropolitan areas over a million people (Cleveland, Columbus, and Cincinnati) while Mississippi has none over 300,000.  Large metro areas tend to go Democrat and can counter rural GOP blowouts while smaller urban may narrowly go Democrat but not nearly enough to counter rural GOP blowouts.

[Non Swing Voter]

Yes, in the same way Colorado is gone for Republicans.  They aren't winning it unless they're winning nationally big or there is a serious flaw with the other side's candidate.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's not gone unless Sherrod Brown loses in ,2024/ as I stated before, Brown is from Akron and D's lost Mahoning County that's why Biden lost the state. If Biden had Pete Buttigieg on the ballot instead of socialist Harris, he could of saved IA and OH.

Harris is a Socialistic AA female whom doesn't play well in IA and she lost it big in primaries. She could of went for AG


If Harris ever ran for Prez in , she will have competetion, especially in 2028, from Sherrod Brown or Ossoff whom are stars of Ds

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The GOP performances were partially personality-driven, with Trump getting a lot of former non-voters or very infrequent voters.
We can't say Ohio is truly gone until Trump has truly left the scene and the GOP has repeatedly managed to assemble a Trumpesque coalition without Trump.
Ohio still has a lot of non-baked in voters that could flip back.
I voted No for the time being.

[AnOdyssey]

Depends on the political climate of the nation and the Democratic Nominee/Ticket.

[ElectionsGuy]

Yes, it's been gone for 4 years. This first should've been entertained in 2016, when it voted a whopping 10 points right of the nation. Then in 2018, further confirmation when it voted in a Republican governor in a blue wave year and Republicans won the statewide House vote by 5 points. At this point, to think it's worth contesting in a competitive national election is delusional, but I think it's so difficult for them because so many Democrats, beltway pundits, and pollsters legitimately cannot discern if an election is competitive or not.

[BigVic]

No longer a bellwether. Gone the way of Missouri.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yes, it's been gone for 4 years. This first should've been entertained in 2016, when it voted a whopping 10 points right of the nation. Then in 2018, further confirmation when it voted in a Republican governor in a blue wave year and Republicans won the statewide House vote by 5 points. At this point, to think it's worth contesting in a competitive national election is delusional, but I think it's so difficult for them because so many Democrats, beltway pundits, and pollsters legitimately cannot discern if an election is competitive or not.

Sherrod Brown won, in 2018, as well, if Biden not picked socialisic AA Harris and put Buttigieg on ballot as Veep he would have carried OH, or Klobuchar, as both did well in IA and Harris like Warren did bad in IA, as I said before UNLESS SHERROD BROWN LOSES IN 2024/ OH ISNT GONE, AND THE RS DONT HAVE NO ONE TO CHALLENGE BROWN.  BROWN IS FROM AKRON AND BIDEN LOST MAHONING COUNTY WHERE BROWN IS FROM

[MT Treasurer]

In a number of these states, including but not limited to Ohio and Iowa, I'd like to see what happens once Trump is no longer relevant before declaring trends that only appeared during the Trump era permanent.

David Perdue, Bruce Poliquin, and Joni Ernst agree with this sentiment.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Even if D's worse case scenario lose in 2022, Klobuchar, Tester, Manchin, Brown, Casey, Stabenow, Baldwin and Kaine will lift Biden to another term, this is the same Class Senators that helped Obama win in 2012