UK parliamentary boundary review

[YL]

These really suck for PC.

They were always vulnerable: their seats are particularly undersized and the potential areas for those seats to expand into included areas in constituencies where they're not competitive.  However, I suspect that while it will be listed as notionally Tory Plaid will have a pretty good chance in the new Caerfyrddin seat in practice, which together with Dwyfor Meirionnydd (basically rock solid) and Ceredigion Preseli would give them three seats, which as Wales is losing a fifth of its seats isn't a terrible outcome for them.

[EastAnglianLefty]

Also, the Tory incumbent in Ynys Mon is weak and whilst party loyalty is weak on the island, Plaid are generally the most popular party there once you account for candidate effects.

[CumbrianLefty]

There’s still rumours that the election will happen before these boundaries come in- which would mean we’d lose out on the joy of watching MPs fight over seats.

Not if the latest poling is indicative of the near future, it won't.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1448452319977299973?s=20

Not much changes I think, outside of the Dundee and Elgin regions.

[YL]

At a first glance, looks like a minimal change approach.  Some weirdnesses: Dundee West & Gowrie comes very close to Perth, Motherwell & Clydesdale North goes a long way from Motherwell, "Mid Forth Valley" (are they trying to come up with the worst name imaginable) spans the Forth combining north of Falkirk with Clackmannanshire.  I bet a more detailed look (or one by a Scot; calling afleitch) will find some more.

Some weird naming choices: Falkirk and Paisley both disappear from names; East Lothian becomes "East Lothian Coast" in spite of still containing most of the inland bit; how does the Clyde Valley differ from Clydesdale?  And I don't like the very bland "Highland North" and "Highland Central".

[JerryArkansas]

As I said elsewhere, it has the least amount of bad presents so far. 

[EastAnglianLefty]

Kelvin North and Kelvin South for what are basically the existing East Dunbartonshire and Cumbernauld, Kilsyth & Kirkintilloch East seats is another very odd choice, given that most people would associate Kelvin with northern Glasgow.

But when you're complaining about names, that's usually a sign that the proposal is tolerable. There are some odd choices, but overall it's remarkably coherent.

[afleitch]

They aren't bad. Dundee is a travesty; taken together they are about as wide as Greater London and the North East needs to be tidied up, but the central belt proposals are pretty logical.

[YL]

They aren't bad. Dundee is a travesty; taken together they are about as wide as Greater London and the North East needs to be tidied up, but the central belt proposals are pretty logical.

Dundee shouldn't be too hard to improve, right?  Move Carse of Gowrie into "Angus & Strathmore" (which I'd probably call Angus & East Perthshire), move part of East End ward of Dundee into West (which might no longer be West), move enough territory from Angus & Strathmore to East & Arbroath to make the numbers work.

[beesley]

Perthshire seems the worst affected, going from being split across 2 constituencies to now 5. As has been mentioned that can be somewhat improved.

In terms of partisan considerations (which I hope Americans here realise are irrelevant in drawing the lines), the Liberal Democrats are probably the worst affected by these initial proposals - I struggle to see them winning North East Fife and Highland North on these boundaries in 2019, given the closeness. If I had to guess that Gordon seat would go Conservative with the loss of north Aberdeen and addition of Turriff, but that's only making up for Moray disappearing.

The main purpose of the exercise is good representation however, and in most areas I can't see better options.

[CumbrianLefty]

The final part of this stage comes in a few days, when the Northern Ireland proposals are published.

[The Free North]

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1450462845288783886

[YL]

Maps for Norn Iron

At first glance, this looks like another "minimum change" effort with the result that there are some odd little bits tacked on, most noticeably Belfast South extending south into rural County Down and becoming "Belfast South & Mid Down" and Fermanagh & South Tyrone extending into north Armagh.

Strangford would finally include the village of Strangford, but would be renamed "Strangford & Quoile".

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Terrible map, no VRA districts and draws out liberal democrats.

[Lord Halifax]

Fermanagh & South Tyrone extending into north Armagh..

That'll presumably make it a safe Unionist seat?

[YL]

Fermanagh & South Tyrone extending into north Armagh..

That'll presumably make it a safe Unionist seat?

I can't see it becoming safe Unionist, but I'm sure it moves in that direction (and notionally flips SF to UUP).

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Out of curiosity, Has anyone calculated how many seats are there where white British/Scottish/Irish isn't the largest ethnicity?

[JerryArkansas]

Fermanagh & South Tyrone extending into north Armagh..

That'll presumably make it a safe Unionist seat?

I can't see it becoming safe Unionist, but I'm sure it moves in that direction (and notionally flips SF to UUP).

Strange, I saw somewhere else someone say the exact opposite.  The move makes the seat slightly more nationaist.

[beesley]

Maps for Norn Iron

At first glance, this looks like another "minimum change" effort with the result that there are some odd little bits tacked on, most noticeably Belfast South extending south into rural County Down and becoming "Belfast South & Mid Down" and Fermanagh & South Tyrone extending into north Armagh.

Strangford would finally include the village of Strangford, but would be renamed "Strangford & Quoile".

Some of the minimum change must be to conform to the new local government districts - the one ward from CC and Glens in East Antrim has been moved to North Antrim, for example. And with Carryduff's wards being the way they are, a bit of Mid Down has to be tacked on.

[YL]

Fermanagh & South Tyrone extending into north Armagh..

That'll presumably make it a safe Unionist seat?

I can't see it becoming safe Unionist, but I'm sure it moves in that direction (and notionally flips SF to UUP).

Strange, I saw somewhere else someone say the exact opposite.  The move makes the seat slightly more nationaist.

Well, I may have misjudged, but it loses Dungannon, a majority but not overwhelmingly Catholic town, and gains some mixed territory in Co. Armagh (Loughgall more Protestant, Blackwatertown more Catholic AIUI).  I'd have thought that would make it a little more Protestant overall, and given how close it was almost any shift in that direction would flip it.

[YL]

Maps for Norn Iron

At first glance, this looks like another "minimum change" effort with the result that there are some odd little bits tacked on, most noticeably Belfast South extending south into rural County Down and becoming "Belfast South & Mid Down" and Fermanagh & South Tyrone extending into north Armagh.

Strangford would finally include the village of Strangford, but would be renamed "Strangford & Quoile".

Some of the minimum change must be to conform to the new local government districts - the one ward from CC and Glens in East Antrim has been moved to North Antrim, for example. And with Carryduff's wards being the way they are, a bit of Mid Down has to be tacked on.

Not really, actually: they've pretty much ignored the local government district boundaries.  In fact that one Causeway Coast & Glens ward in East Antrim (Lurigethan) is still there; it's part of the split Torr Head & Rathlin ward which moves to North Antrim.  Belfast West gets an orphan ward in Lisburn & Castlereagh (Derryaghy) while elsewhere a Belfast ward (Garnerville) becomes an orphan ward in North Down.  The extensions of Belfast South to Saintfield and Fermanagh & South Tyrone to Loughgall both extend across local government boundaries.

The district boundaries as such aren't actually part of the criteria in NI, unlike the rest of the UK, but some of these examples do feel a bit weird.

[Tintrlvr]

Fermanagh & South Tyrone extending into north Armagh..

That'll presumably make it a safe Unionist seat?

I can't see it becoming safe Unionist, but I'm sure it moves in that direction (and notionally flips SF to UUP).

Strange, I saw somewhere else someone say the exact opposite.  The move makes the seat slightly more nationaist.

The main change seems to be Dungannon being taken out of the seat; the other areas added/removed are very small. But Dungannon is a solidly Nationalist town so overall definitely the changes move the seat towards the Unionists.

On the other hand, the changes to Strangford (now Strangford and Quoile) are also striking; the addition of Downpatrick and surrounds (and removal of Saintfield) moves the seat from overwhelmingly Unionist to having a large Nationalist minority, perhaps even enough to win on a split vote if the Alliance remains strong.

[ObserverIE]

Fermanagh & South Tyrone extending into north Armagh..

That'll presumably make it a safe Unionist seat?

I can't see it becoming safe Unionist, but I'm sure it moves in that direction (and notionally flips SF to UUP).

Strange, I saw somewhere else someone say the exact opposite.  The move makes the seat slightly more nationaist.

The main change seems to be Dungannon being taken out of the seat; the other areas added/removed are very small. But Dungannon is a solidly Nationalist town so overall definitely the changes move the seat towards the Unionists.

On the other hand, the changes to Strangford (now Strangford and Quoile) are also striking; the addition of Downpatrick and surrounds (and removal of Saintfield) moves the seat from overwhelmingly Unionist to having a large Nationalist minority, perhaps even enough to win on a split vote if the Alliance remains strong.

I would principally think it screws the SDLP's chances in South Down with Downpatrick/Lecale being the strongest area in the old constituency for them; they would undoubtedly finally win an Assembly seat in Strangford but probably at the expense of their second seat in South Down.

The only way the DUP would not win the new Strangford seat for Westminster would be for the SDLP and SF support in the new part to collapse entirely in favour of Alliance. Fermanagh-South Tyrone minus Dungannon but with added Loughgall - making the constituency even more unwieldy geographically - looks like a gerrymander, frankly

[YL]

Fermanagh-South Tyrone minus Dungannon but with added Loughgall - making the constituency even more unwieldy geographically - looks like a gerrymander, frankly

As I said in another place, it removes the focus of the eastern part of the current constituency and then extends it still further east.  It really doesn't make sense.

[CumbrianLefty]

Terrible map, no VRA districts and draws out liberal democrats.

Sorry, what?