Brazilian presidential and general elections 2022 (1st round: October 2nd, 2nd round: October 30th)

[buritobr]

In southwestern Paraná and western Santa Catarina, there are many land reform settlements. The Movimento dos Trabalhadores Rurais Sem Terra (MST) is very strong in these areas. The south of Rio Grande do Sul is poor and so, many of its inhabitants support strong social policies.
In most of the Paraná, eastern Santa Catarina and northern Rio Grande do Sul, there are many descendants of Italian, German, Polish immigrants. They vote very right-wing because they have the "self made man speech". They say: "our grandparents were very poor when they came from Europe and now we are middle class citizens because our families are very hard working"

Rio Grande do Sul used to be a left-wing state because this state has a long tradition of labour and communist leaders. It moved to the right since 2006, but it still much on the left of Paraná and Santa Catarina.

[DL]

Why is Rio Grande do Sul (and, by the looks of it, also western Santa Carina and southwestern Paraná) so much better for the left than rest of the South?

Could also be because RGS includes a major city Porto Allegre which tends to vote for the left while the other southern states do not have any big cities in them. So its like comparing Illinois to Indiana? 

[buritobr]

The lack of a big city can explain while Santa Catarina votes so hard for the right, but not Paraná. Curitiba is bigger than Porto Alegre and this city votes on the right of the state of Paraná.

[Red Velvet]

Like everything in the country outside the Rio de Janeiro metropolitan area these days (where the rich vote left and poor vote right since 2018, crazy woke “westernized” Rio where elites hate Bolsonaro lmao), the vote divide is for economic reasons. As it is in most of Latin America as well.

Rio Grande do Sul Socioeconomical development index per municipality:



Rio Grande do Sul 2022 presidential vote per municipality:



Santa Catarina - Most developed regions in Green, they are in the east alongside the coast:



Santa Catarina 2022 presidential vote (Lula-red; Bolsonaro-green):



Paraná economic dynamic municipality map (the redder, the more economically dynamic it is, yellow are peripheral areas):

 

Paraná 2022 presidential vote (note previous yellow areas coinciding with the Red Lula vote):

[buritobr]

Some more maps

Here we can see the sum of the % of the votes for candidates who were neither Lula nor Bolsonaro in the 1st round 2022. There was a larger concentration of votes for 3rd party candidates in Ceará, because of Ciro Gomes, and in the rest of the countries, the highest share for minor candidates took place in the most populous, urban and rich municipalities. The lowest sum, 1.4%, took place in Calumbi-PE. The highest sum, 19.9%, took place in Sobral-CE


The other map shows the gains of Bolsonaro from the 1st to the 2nd round. We can see the comparison of the Bolsonaro-Lula margins in the 2nd and in the 1st round. Lula's margin fell from 5.2 in the 1st round to 1.8 in the runoff. The decline was not uniform in the country. In green, we see the municipalities in which Bolsonaro got better in comparison to Lula. In pink, the municipalities in which Bolsonaro got worse. Bolsonaro improved more in the South and in the Center-West, regions in which he had already done well in the 1st round.