Is Georgia gone for good for the GOP?

[iceman]

Looking at the map, the highest turnout counties were mostly GOP counties in northern GA, but still they were outvoted by the growing Atlanta region. By this, could you say that Georgia is gone for good for the GOP?

[TheReckoning]

Biden won it barely, and Trump was a poor fit for the white suburbs.

I’d honestly wouldn’t be surprised if it goes the way of North Carolina instead of Virginia.

[iceman]

Biden won it barely, and Trump was a poor fit for the white suburbs.

I’d honestly wouldn’t be surprised if it goes the way of North Carolina instead of Virginia.

but what about Loeffler and Perdue?


By the looks of it, Gwinnett and Cobb are going by the way of Loudoun and Prince William. I would say that Georgia maybe is trending like Virginia.

[If my soul was made of stone]

The long term picture in the state clearly favors the Dems, but I don't think it's quite at critical mass yet. For the rest of the 2020s it'll probably be a series of nail-biters based on whose base is more motivated, and Lean D thereafter. I doubt it'll become a new NC because its rurals are already mostly bottomed out for Dems.

[TheReckoning]

Biden won it barely, and Trump was a poor fit for the white suburbs.

I’d honestly wouldn’t be surprised if it goes the way of North Carolina instead of Virginia.

but what about Loeffler and Perdue?

The overall GOP approval rating is super low right now.

Not to mention many Republicans literally stayed home because they thought it was rigged anyways.

Which sucks for the GOP for now, but time will tell if it’s good for the country.

[DrScholl]

The turnout in the Senate race seemed reasonably high enough to indicate that many Republicans didn't boycott the race. It might not be like Virginia, but I can see it being like Nevada with the metro area being like one huge Clark County and the rural areas being like the cow counties. There are also a lot of transplants in Georgia like there are in Nevada.

[ProgressiveModerate]

It's clear they have some big problems, but it's too soon to jump to definitive conclusions

[Motorcity]

Absolutely not

I say its in-between Virgina and North Carolina

Georgia is now a state Democrats should contest and win, but still requires luck. Unlike North Carolina which is so damn stubborn

[Catalyst138]

Long term yes, short term absolutely not.

[neostassenite31]

Hallmarks of a blue state:

1. Presidential margin consistently to the left of the nation (Georgia: No)

2. House margin consistently to the left of the nation (Georgia: Not even close)

3. Clear Democratic majorities in the state legislature with double digit leads in the statewide total (Georgia: No)

4. Democrats outnumber Republicans by significant margins in exit polls (Georgia: Nope)

5. Liberal to conservative ratio is to the left of the nation in exit polls (Georgia: LOL No)

6. Net approval of the Democratic Party is much higher than net approval of the Republican Party (Georgia: No)

[Adam Griffin]

Looking at the map, the highest turnout counties were mostly GOP counties in northern GA

Curious how you came to this conclusion?

Just as a share of the presidential (which is obviously a baseline metric):



Of the 20 counties with the highest turnout as a share of November, only 1 is a North Georgia GOP county and the vast majority are Democratic or swing counties.

[Adam Griffin]

Hallmarks of a blue state:

1. Presidential margin consistently to the left of the nation (Georgia: No)

2. House margin consistently to the left of the nation (Georgia: Not even close)

3. Clear Democratic majorities in the state legislature with double digit leads in the statewide total (Georgia: No)

4. Democrats outnumber Republicans by significant margins in exit polls (Georgia: Nope)

5. Liberal to conservative ratio is to the left of the nation in exit polls (Georgia: LOL No)

6. Net approval of the Democratic Party is much higher than net approval of the Republican Party (Georgia: No)

I don't think any of these applied to VA until 2016 at the earliest (and multiple still don't), but that doesn't change the fact that the state was gone for the GOP circa 2006.

[Alcibiades]

If demographic change continues at the same rate in the Atlanta area, then probably yes.

[It's Perro Sanxe wot won it]

I say its in-between Virgina and North Carolina

This.

In 2008, Virginia voted 1 point to the right of the nation while North Carolina voted 7 points to the right of the nation. This year, Georgia voted 4 points to the right of the nation.

[neostassenite31]

Hallmarks of a blue state:

1. Presidential margin consistently to the left of the nation (Georgia: No)

2. House margin consistently to the left of the nation (Georgia: Not even close)

3. Clear Democratic majorities in the state legislature with double digit leads in the statewide total (Georgia: No)

4. Democrats outnumber Republicans by significant margins in exit polls (Georgia: Nope)

5. Liberal to conservative ratio is to the left of the nation in exit polls (Georgia: LOL No)

6. Net approval of the Democratic Party is much higher than net approval of the Republican Party (Georgia: No)

I don't think any of these applied to VA until 2016 at the earliest (and multiple still don't), but that doesn't change the fact that the state was gone for the GOP circa 2006.

Some of these criteria don't even apply to CO (yet), especially 4 and 6. It's probably a minute detail of talking about a state being "gone" versus "gone for good".

It does remind Democrats of the need for some level of caution in how they approach future statewide elections, even in CO and VA.   

[Chips]

No. It was extremely close in all statewide elections. Someone like Haley probably would win this state back.

[Adam Griffin]

I would point out that GA's transformation over the past 4 years is perfectly in line with automatic voter registration trends.

Between the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, GA netted 1,562,282 active registered voters. For several years now, Democrats have been roughly 60% of the gains in voter registration based on demographics alone. This would point to a net gain for Democrats of 312,000 registered voters between the two elections.

Roughly two-thirds of these voters can be expected to show in a presidential election. This would be a net of 200,100 registered voters for Democrats over the same time period.

Hillary Clinton lost the state by 211,141 votes; Biden won by 11,779. That's a net shift of 222,920 votes.

So:

2016-2020 VR Partisan Shift: 200,100
2016-2020 Actual Partisan Shift: 222,920

The state's margins are tracking very well with projected performance based on voter registration alone. Of course there is generational turnover that actually is factored into performance, but this one metric is performing at basically a 1:1 ratio for the time being. Over the next four years, the immense gains of AVR will dissipate as the entire eligible population becomes registered (we're already very close), but expect an additional baseline net gain for Democrats of 80-100k votes.

Unless "independents" or moderate suburbrons abandon the party, this is basically set in stone.

[MT Treasurer]

Barring an extremely unlikely drop-off in turnout among Democrats, a massive influx of Republican-leaning transplants or unprecedented Republican mobilization/registration efforts which add tens of thousands new voters to the voter rolls and/or get inactive Republicans involved, almost certainly. The closeness in a state's margin doesn’t mean a whole lot when there’s no realistic path to close that gap, however small it may be.

[forsythvoter]

No, it's not lost for the GOP, but hopefully the Rs have learned from 2020 that running candidates that are to the right of Attila the Hun and "100% with Trump" is not a winning message for a state that's more moderate than conservative.

[here2view]

Ask me after 2022

[Skill and Chance]

Lean Yes but we need to see 2022 GOV and SEN first to be sure.

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

No, it's not lost for the GOP, but hopefully the Rs have learned from 2020 that running candidates that are to the right of Attila the Hun and "100% with Trump" is not a winning message for a state that's more moderate than conservative.

[DabbingSanta]

A state the Democrats won at the presidential level for the first time in 28 years, with a margin of 12,000 votes.  Definitely "gone for good".  🤔😂

Atlas takes the whole trend thing too far sometimes...

[neostassenite31]

One other detail about GA setting it apart from almost every other state: the swing in the overall Democratic margin in both the state and federal house of representatives elections from 2018 to 2020.

Because 2018 was an R incumbent midterm and part of the Republican base didn't turn out, the Democratic margin in state and federal house totals for most states dropped from 2018 to 2020 as Republicans gained ground.

However, this did not occur in GA as the Democratic margin in both the state and federal house actually increased by 6 and 3 points going from 2018 to 2020, respectively.

This could definitively be indicative of an underlying long-term Democratic trend beyond the overall anti-Republican swing nationally in 2020.

[Zaybay]

Georgia presents a unique issue to the GOP in that its rapidly diversifying in its population at a rate much faster than other states. The population of Georgia started the decade off at 56% white, but that statistic has fallen to 53% in the 2018 survey and is quickly dropping. If these shifts were to continue, Georgia could become a majority-minority state by around the end of the 2020s.

Meanwhile, the gains are being made up by largely African-American voters, who not only vote Democratic by extremely large margins but also turn out at rather strong rates. This means that even if the GOP start to win back the white voters lost between 2016 -> 2020, the floor that the Democrats have will continue to rise. This isn't even mentioning other issues such as urbanization, declining Evangelism, college education, etc.

It's certainly possible, and I'd personally say likely, that the GOP win a couple more races in either 2022 or 2024, but the clock is ticking for them.