Seriously; where does the GOP turn if they lose TX for good?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Texas is obvious a huge electoral prize that has been critical to the GOP winning Presidential elections. However, without Texas, their path would become really really difficult. They could sweep all the Trump states + MI/WI/PA/MN/NV/NH/ME, even NM, and would still lose an election. Stalling trends in AZ and GA would probably be a losing battle, and states like IL/NJ/OR/DE/RI/ect would take a lot of work. What does the GOP do if in 2028 or 2032 it becomes clear TX is no longer a winnable state (it will probably still be competative by then but just hypothetically)?

[Roll Roons]

Yeah, I have a very hard time seeing Arizona or Georgia vote to the right of Texas. Even North Carolina probably wouldn't. I guess they would spend time in the wilderness like they did from 1932-1952 and be forced to change their strategy. After that, the next GOP victory would likely have them making further inroads in the Northeast and Midwest, as they win Minnesota, Illinois, New Jersey, Delaware, Connecticut and Rhode Island.

[Agonized-Statism]

Texas will be a swing state long before it's a blue state, and by that time many decades in the future, the Republicans would have pursued the electoral votes necessary to stay competitive elsewhere. The strategy for both parties going forward is likely going to depend on Texas as a bellwether, like the parties depended on New York in the late 19th century. You're never going to have one party in the wilderness for more than two decades.

If it really went blue so soon, this would be the GOP's twenty hopeless years with no path to victory.

[Chips]

Texas will be a swing state long before it's a blue state, and by that time many decades in the future, the Republicans would have pursued the electoral votes necessary to stay competitive elsewhere. The strategy for both parties going forward is likely going to depend on Texas as a bellwether, like the parties depended on New York in the late 19th century. You're never going to have one party in the wilderness for more than two decades.

If it really went blue so soon, this would be the GOP's twenty hopeless years with no path to victory.

[TodayJunior]

Nowhere. They would cease to exist as a party. Perhaps Florida could maintain its swing state status, but you’d have to pair it up with Wisconsin to just replace Texas. I see no inroads for them into California Illinois New York or any other western or coastal Atlantic state demographics-wise if Texas is already gone.

[Hope For A New Era]

At this point it seriously looks like the whole country is about to become a macrocosm of Minnesota. Democrats always on top, but just barely, and Republicans with no policy or platform other than being against the Democrats.

De facto opposition party.

[vileplume]

Texas is obvious a huge electoral prize that has been critical to the GOP winning Presidential elections. However, without Texas, their path would become really really difficult. They could sweep all the Trump states + MI/WI/PA/MN/NV/NH/ME, even NM, and would still lose an election. Stalling trends in AZ and GA would probably be a losing battle, and states like IL/NJ/OR/DE/RI/ect would take a lot of work. What does the GOP do if in 2028 or 2032 it becomes clear TX is no longer a winnable state (it will probably still be competative by then but just hypothetically)?

If that were to happen the GOP would consistently losing national elections by Obama '08 margins or greater. Whilst that is possible for a few cycles (a decade at most) the electorate would eventually get sick of the Democrats and the GOP would inevitably become competitive nationally again. The Dems would simply not be able to keep all of the larger states TX/CA/AZ/IL/NY/NJ/WA etc. solidly in their column for more than a short space of time.

If hypothetically Texas is solidly Democratic in say 2 decades time for example, it's likely that the Dems dominate the Sun Belt (except Florida) but that their coalition in the Northern States has massively weakened, or fallen apart altogether. New York would probably be a swing state, New Jersey Lean R etc.

However I think it's more likely that the GOP doesn't lose Texas and that it remains stubbornly at Lean/Likely R for the foreseeable going Dem only in a wave year. I also think the trends in Arizona will stall post-Trump and it'll start to vote similarly to how North Carolina does now. Georgia will go reliably D but this can be compensated in a way Texas can't be without a total realignment. I also think California will return to more 'normal' margins over the next few decades ensuring that the GOP can again win the the popular vote and the Democrats aren't structurally disadvantaged in the Electoral College (or at least nowhere near as much as now).