Joe Manchin's reelection chances in 2024

[Suburbia]

I’m pretty sure he’ll retire, but if he doesn’t, he’s as DOA as Cory Gardner barring a complete trainwreck of an opponent.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Just like in MT with Gianforte and Tester, unless Manchin faces a top R, I don't see him losing. Matt Rosendale already lost to Tester

[neostassenite31]

We're talking about the second reddest state in the entire country in both 2016 and 2020 here. This isn't Maine or Colorado or some other light blue / light red state.

No Democrat is going to win a state that is 40 points more Republican than the nation in both '16 and '20 concurrently with a presidential election.   

[President Johnson]

He's probably done. Republicans blew the 2018 race by nominating a very weak candidate, who got within 4%, before Manchin voted to impeach Trump. I doubt Manchin even runs again.

[Chips]

He's probably done. Republicans blew the 2018 race by nominating a very weak candidate, who got within 4%, before Manchin voted to impeach Trump. I doubt Manchin even runs again.

[Agafin]

Wow this forum is normally really bullish/optimistic about dems chances lol, seems like everyone thinks he's DOA.

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

He barely won in a midterm year against a weak opponent with a good national environment for the Democrats. In 2024, in a presidential year the race will be much more nationalized and the Republicans will, in all likelihood, have a more favorable environment than in 2018.

And, as has been mentioned before, some of his votes (especially the one to convict Trump) aren’t precisely popular in a state like West Virginia. Republican voters are more partisan and won’t forgive and forget that easily.

He’s not going to be the Democratic Susan Collins. He’s DOA.

He already is the Democratic Susan Collins. He "barely won in a midterm year"... yes, in WEST VIRGINIA, that votes R+40.

if Lisa Savage hadn't run, then Collins would have won by a similar margin that Manchin won by in 2018.  Keep in mind that WV voted for Trump by 39 and Maine voted for Biden by 9.

[MATTROSE94]

Joe Manchin will be a Republican by then, so he probably cruises to reelection.

[Suburbia]

Joe Manchin will be a Republican by then, so he probably cruises to reelection.

Manchin is not switching parties.

[Gustaf]

I think he's virtually guaranteed to not run.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Manchin is not DOA if he runs again, not yet (it's freaking four years until 2024), but at the same time I wouldn't exactly say he has a good chance of being returned. My best guess is that he has perhaps a 5-10% chance of winning again right now, depending on the national environment.

[MT Treasurer]

Manchin is not DOA if he runs again, not yet (it's freaking four years until 2024), but at the same time I wouldn't exactly say he has a good chance of being returned. My best guess is that he has perhaps a 5-10% chance of winning again right now, depending on the national environment.

Manchin isn’t DOA the same way Doug Jones wasn’t DOA in January 2018. So technically you’re not wrong, but we’re just being pedantic here.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

I think he could make it single digits, but that is about it.

[Ljube]

Manchin is not DOA if he runs again, not yet (it's freaking four years until 2024), but at the same time I wouldn't exactly say he has a good chance of being returned. My best guess is that he has perhaps a 5-10% chance of winning again right now, depending on the national environment.

Manchin isn’t DOA the same way Doug Jones wasn’t DOA in January 2018. So technically you’re not wrong, but we’re just being pedantic here.

Doug Jones voted for every unpopular proposal the radical left put forward.

Joe Manchin will be the deciding vote for at least 2 years and he will be in control of his destiny. If he doesn't allow any of the crazy stuff, such as DC statehood, end of filibuster, court packing, voter rights bill, amnesty for illegal immigrants, assault weapons ban, while still supporting infrastructure bill and maybe federal minimum wage, he will be in a very good position to win re-election.

[WD]

Manchin is not DOA if he runs again, not yet (it's freaking four years until 2024), but at the same time I wouldn't exactly say he has a good chance of being returned. My best guess is that he has perhaps a 5-10% chance of winning again right now, depending on the national environment.

Manchin isn’t DOA the same way Doug Jones wasn’t DOA in January 2018. So technically you’re not wrong, but we’re just being pedantic here.

Doug Jones voted for every unpopular proposal the radical left put forward.

Joe Manchin will be the deciding vote for at least 2 years and he will be in control of his destiny. If he doesn't allow any of the crazy stuff, such as DC statehood, end of filibuster, court packing, voter rights bill, amnesty for illegal immigrants, assault weapons ban, while still supporting infrastructure bill and maybe federal minimum wage, he will be in a very good position to win re-election.

Imagine actually believing this. Manchin could vote against Biden on every major piece of legislation (he won’t) and he’d still lose by double digits.

[Ljube]

Manchin is not DOA if he runs again, not yet (it's freaking four years until 2024), but at the same time I wouldn't exactly say he has a good chance of being returned. My best guess is that he has perhaps a 5-10% chance of winning again right now, depending on the national environment.

Manchin isn’t DOA the same way Doug Jones wasn’t DOA in January 2018. So technically you’re not wrong, but we’re just being pedantic here.

Doug Jones voted for every unpopular proposal the radical left put forward.

Joe Manchin will be the deciding vote for at least 2 years and he will be in control of his destiny. If he doesn't allow any of the crazy stuff, such as DC statehood, end of filibuster, court packing, voter rights bill, amnesty for illegal immigrants, assault weapons ban, while still supporting infrastructure bill and maybe federal minimum wage, he will be in a very good position to win re-election.

Imagine actually believing this. Manchin could vote against Biden on every major piece of legislation (he won’t) and he’d still lose by double digits.

He just needs to block the crazy stuff. He can brag he blocked DC statehood and abolition of the Second Amendment.

[WD]

Manchin is not DOA if he runs again, not yet (it's freaking four years until 2024), but at the same time I wouldn't exactly say he has a good chance of being returned. My best guess is that he has perhaps a 5-10% chance of winning again right now, depending on the national environment.

Manchin isn’t DOA the same way Doug Jones wasn’t DOA in January 2018. So technically you’re not wrong, but we’re just being pedantic here.

Doug Jones voted for every unpopular proposal the radical left put forward.

Joe Manchin will be the deciding vote for at least 2 years and he will be in control of his destiny. If he doesn't allow any of the crazy stuff, such as DC statehood, end of filibuster, court packing, voter rights bill, amnesty for illegal immigrants, assault weapons ban, while still supporting infrastructure bill and maybe federal minimum wage, he will be in a very good position to win re-election.

Imagine actually believing this. Manchin could vote against Biden on every major piece of legislation (he won’t) and he’d still lose by double digits.

He just needs to block the crazy stuff. He can brag he blocked DC statehood and abolition of the Second Amendment.

1. Democrats aren’t going to abolish the 2A lmfao 2. Manchin is still DOA no matter what he does, he isn’t outrunning the Dem nominee by 40+ points.

[EastwoodS]

Will he even run again? Better question.