Joe Manchin's reelection chances in 2024

[Agafin]

Yes I know its too early to predict anything but it really seems to me that the current configuration of the senate is like the perfect setup for an eventual reelection of Senator Joe Manchin in 2024 (assuming he doesn't retire). Now obviously after the 2020 election, it really looked like he was a goner but I think he now has the chance of pulling a Susan Collins. Think about it, West Virginia is likely going to get the most national attention and be the most important it has been since it joined the union. Partially thanks to him, every one of Biden's cabinet picks (and eventual supreme court nominees) will be voted in, the $2k stimulus checks will pass, the affordable care act will be strengthened as well as most of the uncontroversial parts of the democratic agenda and all that will help make his democratic base in WV pretty happy. But at the same time, anything which is unpopular in WV (such as the Green New Deal or Medicare for All I assume) will fail and he can easily campaign on that, saying how he represents an independent voice for West Virginians  who doesn't systematically tow the party line (similar to Collins) and with the resume to back that up. Not to mention all the pork that will be thrown his way.

I just try to put myself in the skin of a moderate or even slightly conservative West Virginian. Who do I vote for? A republican who is just going to be another rubber stamp for the greater party's agenda and that no one will ever care about (republicans AND democrats), or Joe Manchin who while probably to the left of my political views is not too extreme and will make sure that a small state like West Virginia never gets the short end of the stick on any bill and instead has a huge say in decisions taken in congress. That decision seems quite easy.

But maybe I'm too bullish on his chances. Is the country now too polarized for that and the coattails of the top ticket will just drag any republican over the finish line?

[Ron DeSantis enthusiast]

I'm not sure he would run in 2024, he would be 77, but just in case, it would be a toss-up, in 2018 against a very weak candidate and in a blue wave year he won by "only" 3.31%. If he votes for the finishing the filibuster, DC statehood or something like this, he is done for reelection.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

He was already done for re-election in 2024 the moment he voted to convict Trump. Safe R regardless of whether or not Manchin runs.

[Alcibiades]

If he plays his cards right, he could now have a fighting chance, but he’ll still be the underdog. No question that this 50-50 Senate is one of the best things that could have happened for him from an electoral standpoint.

[wbrocks67]

He was already done for re-election in 2024 the moment he voted to convict Trump. Safe R regardless of whether or not Manchin runs.

No one is going to remember that in 4 years

[VAR]

He was already done for re-election in 2024 the moment he voted to convict Trump. Safe R regardless of whether or not Manchin runs.

No one is going to remember that in 4 years

The NRSC is going to remind them of Manchin's vote to convict Trump.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

About the same as mine*

*(i'm not an American citizen and won't turn 30 until 2032.)

[Frenchrepublican]

Yes I know its too early to predict anything but it really seems to me that the current configuration of the senate is like the perfect setup for an eventual reelection of Senator Joe Manchin in 2024 (assuming he doesn't retire). Now obviously after the 2020 election, it really looked like he was a goner but I think he now has the chance of pulling a Susan Collins. Think about it, West Virginia is likely going to get the most national attention and be the most important it has been since it joined the union. Partially thanks to him, every one of Biden's cabinet picks (and eventual supreme court nominees) will be voted in, the $2k stimulus checks will pass, the affordable care act will be strengthened as well as most of the uncontroversial parts of the democratic agenda and all that will help make his democratic base in WV pretty happy. But at the same time, anything which is unpopular in WV (such as the Green New Deal or Medicare for All I assume) will fail and he can easily campaign on that, saying how he represents an independent voice for West Virginians  who doesn't systematically tow the party line (similar to Collins) and with the resume to back that up. Not to mention all the pork that will be thrown his way.

I just try to put myself in the skin of a moderate or even slightly conservative West Virginian. Who do I vote for? A republican who is just going to be another rubber stamp for the greater party's agenda and that no one will ever care about (republicans AND democrats), or Joe Manchin who while probably to the left of my political views is not too extreme and will make sure that a small state like West Virginia never gets the short end of the stick on any bill and instead has a huge say in decisions taken in congress. That decision seems quite easy.

But maybe I'm too bullish on his chances. Is the country now too polarized for that and the coattails of the top ticket will just drag any republican over the finish line?

LOL. I seriously doubt that confirming Biden's cabinet will be a very popular issue in WV (especially with people like Kerry/Tanden who have basically promised to wipe out the coal industry).

Also, if you still believe that being an influential member of Congress will allow you to win reelection, as a democrat, in a Trump+15 state/district, you should have a conversation with Collin Peterson.

[It's Perro Sanxe wot won it]

He barely won in a midterm year against a weak opponent with a good national environment for the Democrats. In 2024, in a presidential year the race will be much more nationalized and the Republicans will, in all likelihood, have a more favorable environment than in 2018.

And, as has been mentioned before, some of his votes (especially the one to convict Trump) aren’t precisely popular in a state like West Virginia. Republican voters are more partisan and won’t forgive and forget that easily.

He’s not going to be the Democratic Susan Collins. He’s DOA.

[Pollster]

No question that this 50-50 Senate is one of the best things that could have happened for him from an electoral standpoint.

It’s definitely going to be interesting to watch Democratic senators leverage their votes on “big” legislation (to the extent that there will be any) in this Senate in order to bring home the bacon, especially with earmarks coming back. I read an academic paper in 2019 theorizing that the elimination of earmarks contributed to increased polarization, the perception that Congress is ineffective, and the decrease of incumbency advantage.

[wbrocks67]

He barely won in a midterm year against a weak opponent with a good national environment for the Democrats. In 2024, in a presidential year the race will be much more nationalized and the Republicans will, in all likelihood, have a more favorable environment than in 2018.

And, as has been mentioned before, some of his votes (especially the one to convict Trump) aren’t precisely popular in a state like West Virginia. Republican voters are more partisan and won’t forgive and forget that easily.

He’s not going to be the Democratic Susan Collins. He’s DOA.

He already is the Democratic Susan Collins. He "barely won in a midterm year"... yes, in WEST VIRGINIA, that votes R+40.

[It's Perro Sanxe wot won it]

He already is the Democratic Susan Collins. He "barely won in a midterm year"... yes, in WEST VIRGINIA, that votes R+40.

Susan Collins won by a comfortable margin in a presidential year. Very different from Joe Manchin's situation. And yes, it is a fact that he won (narrowly) in a state that went for Trump by 40 points, but I reiterate that it was a midterm year with a very favorable environment for Dems.

[MT Treasurer]

Wait, people here actually think a 50-50 Senate in which Manchin will have to cast the deciding vote will... improve Manchin's reelection chances? Hahahaha

He’s gonna get blown out of the water in 2024, not that I expect him to run (his voting record makes that pretty clear).

[mardigrappa]

In a presidential election year scenario, even with 2018 which was pretty favorable to Democrats - but more importantly wasn't too nationalized, I already thought he was going to be doomed. Him being the centerpiece of important senate votes is not likely to boost his electoral chances irregardless. And it is likely to get him in trouble more if anything. Unfortunate, although Sherrod Brown has a bit more of a fighting chance. Jon Tester is probably going to have the same fate as Manchin..

[Pollster]

He already is the Democratic Susan Collins. He "barely won in a midterm year"... yes, in WEST VIRGINIA, that votes R+40.

Susan Collins won by a comfortable margin in a presidential year. Very different from Joe Manchin's situation. And yes, it is a fact that he won (narrowly) in a state that went for Trump by 40 points, but I reiterate that it was a midterm year with a very favorable environment for Dems.

Going to do my best to avoid turning this into another Collins/Manchin #analysis thread, but Collins' 2020 margin would've probably been close to identical to Manchin's 2018 margin if the race went to a RCV second round or the liberal independent didn't run.

[ultraviolet]

I’m pretty sure he’ll retire, but if he doesn’t, he’s as DOA as Cory Gardner barring a complete trainwreck of an opponent.

[If my soul was made of stone]

After voting to convict, his recent remarks on the election, and the loss of John Perdue last year, there's absolutely zero chance he runs again. His R successor will crack 70% unless it's someone with baggage like Alex Mooney, and even then I don't see them falling below 65% at the absolute worst.

[W]

He'll probably retire. But I'll be the one option 4 voter.

[Galeel]

I assume he will retire but it's safe R either way

[Xing]

Non-existent.

[Gracile]

Manchin will probably retire in 2024, given some of his recent actions and the fact that he had to be coaxed into running in 2018 in the first place, but even if he were running for reelection, this race would be Safe R.

[AGA]

I always thought that he intended to retire that year. Even if he didn't do all those things that would make him unpopular (conviction vote, vote against ACB, etc.), he would still lose reelection. It would be very hard to hold on while the Republican at the top of the ticket is winning the state by 35+ points. If Democrats still have a Senate majority then, his chances are even lower. But that doesn't matter because I'm pretty sure that he will retire.

[VAR]

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

0

[AncestralDemocrat.]

-10%.