New StateBorders
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Author Topic: New StateBorders  (Read 431 times)
Georg Ebner
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« on: January 07, 2021, 09:36:06 AM »

These new state-borders:

...would have resulted in these numbers at the presidential election 2020:
https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/1qmNw54yVQhr20AZnn4EhKYDPfb3ggP6y?usp=sharing
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bagelman
Junior Chimp
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United States


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E: -4.90, S: -4.17

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« Reply #1 on: January 07, 2021, 10:37:29 AM »

You have created a Clinton/Trump state in FL. Upstate NY and expanded Delaware are Trump/Biden states.

The first sheet in the xlsx document is nonsensical and incomprehensible, claiming changes in Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada despite not doing anything with those states. Michigan has become more Democratic while Wisconsin has not become more Republican enough to flip. Virginia is unclear: I failed to make this map in KHW because in 4 years he still hasn't figured out how I can select independent cities, but it's clearly a very close state.

In the Senate, Upstate NY and Delaware are potential targets for Republicans to have one seat, and Virginia very likely has one or both R senators. Democrats compensate because Bill Nelson survives in Florida
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Georg Ebner
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« Reply #2 on: January 07, 2021, 02:29:13 PM »

You have created a Clinton/Trump state in FL. Upstate NY and expanded Delaware are Trump/Biden states.

The first sheet in the xlsx document is nonsensical and incomprehensible, claiming changes in Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada despite not doing anything with those states. Michigan has become more Democratic while Wisconsin has not become more Republican enough to flip. Virginia is unclear: I failed to make this map in KHW because in 4 years he still hasn't figured out how I can select independent cities, but it's clearly a very close state.

In the Senate, Upstate NY and Delaware are potential targets for Republicans to have one seat, and Virginia very likely has one or both R senators. Democrats compensate because Bill Nelson survives in Florida
GA, AZ, NV were indeed not altered; but they appear, because they would be the first Trump-targets (with GA being - instead of WI - the TippingPoint-state).
It surprised me, how safe rest-PA would be despite Pittsburgh being still a part of it.
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bagelman
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 8,617
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -4.17

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« Reply #3 on: January 07, 2021, 02:42:39 PM »

You have created a Clinton/Trump state in FL. Upstate NY and expanded Delaware are Trump/Biden states.

The first sheet in the xlsx document is nonsensical and incomprehensible, claiming changes in Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada despite not doing anything with those states. Michigan has become more Democratic while Wisconsin has not become more Republican enough to flip. Virginia is unclear: I failed to make this map in KHW because in 4 years he still hasn't figured out how I can select independent cities, but it's clearly a very close state.

In the Senate, Upstate NY and Delaware are potential targets for Republicans to have one seat, and Virginia very likely has one or both R senators. Democrats compensate because Bill Nelson survives in Florida
GA, AZ, NV were indeed not altered; but they appear, because they would be the first Trump-targets (with GA being - instead of WI - the TippingPoint-state).
It surprised me, how safe rest-PA would be despite Pittsburgh being still a part of it.

The Biden campaign wouldn't sleep on them either. Biden still is the likely winner.

As for PA, you left in all the conservative central region. Pittsburgh is very GOP outside of Allegheny County. The metro is probably to the right of Cleveland-Akron.
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Georg Ebner
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« Reply #4 on: January 08, 2021, 12:33:29 PM »

Added are the results of the presidential election 2016 (plus DE without the Philadelphia-SubUrbs [NewCastle&Cecil], thus becoming Republican):

https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/1qmNw54yVQhr20AZnn4EhKYDPfb3ggP6y?usp=sharing
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