London's population set to decline for first time since 1988

[Storebought]

From the Guardian

London’s population is set to decline for the first time in more than 30 years, driven by the economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic and people reassessing where they live during the crisis, according to a report.

The accountancy firm PwC said the number of people living in the capital could fall by more than 300,000 this year, from a record level of about 9 million in 2020, to as low as 8.7 million. This would end decades of growth with the first annual drop since 1988.

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I actually thought London's population was overestimated for a while now, even before the lockdowns etc. Its peer cities have been losing population over the same decade: New York was revised down from 8.6 million in 2016 to 8.3 million in 2019, and is likely below 8 million now, and Paris has dropped to "only" 2.1 million .

[jaymichaud]

London is an amazing city, I’d go every year if I could, but yeah not surprising. There’s really no point in living in a city when everything good is shut.

[TheTide]

News of population decline anywhere rarely moves me to tears. Often the opposite.

[CumbrianLefty]

Its possible Brexit might also be a factor here?

[GenerationTerrorist]

London is an amazing city, I’d go every year if I could, but yeah not surprising. There’s really no point in living in a city when everything good is shut.

It really isn't. Not even the best city in the UK.
(That honour, of course, goes to Hereford!)

[Hnv1]

London is an amazing city, I’d go every year if I could, but yeah not surprising. There’s really no point in living in a city when everything good is shut.

It really isn't. Not even the best city in the UK.
(That honour, of course, goes to Hereford!)

I concur, despite my love for Tottenham that knows no boundaries for over four decades, the city is as a whole is rather meh.

Parties in the north were better and a night out in Newcastle or Birmingham is always more fun than London.

How's the mighty HUFC doing? they were an away day I never did!

[GenerationTerrorist]

London is an amazing city, I’d go every year if I could, but yeah not surprising. There’s really no point in living in a city when everything good is shut.

It really isn't. Not even the best city in the UK.
(That honour, of course, goes to Hereford!)

I concur, despite my love for Tottenham that knows no boundaries for over four decades, the city is as a whole is rather meh.

Parties in the north were better and a night out in Newcastle or Birmingham is always more fun than London.

How's the mighty HUFC doing? they were an away day I never did!

Sadly, Hereford United went bankrupt in December 2014. This was as a result of years of financial mismanagement from 2010, before being bought by a convicted criminal who wanted to knock down the stadium for £'s and build houses on it.
(It was an absolute shocking few years)

We in the Supporters Trust formed a new club, Hereford FC, and got ourselves back going from the very bottom. 3 promotions in a row, though we have been mired in mid-table at level 6 (Conference North) for the past 3 seasons.

PS - I hope to go back to Israel at some point in the next year or two. An absolutely beautiful country. Haifa was amazing.

[Hnv1]

London is an amazing city, I’d go every year if I could, but yeah not surprising. There’s really no point in living in a city when everything good is shut.

It really isn't. Not even the best city in the UK.
(That honour, of course, goes to Hereford!)

I concur, despite my love for Tottenham that knows no boundaries for over four decades, the city is as a whole is rather meh.

Parties in the north were better and a night out in Newcastle or Birmingham is always more fun than London.

How's the mighty HUFC doing? they were an away day I never did!

Sadly, Hereford United went bankrupt in December 2014. This was as a result of years of financial mismanagement from 2010, before being bought by a convicted criminal who wanted to knock down the stadium for £'s and build houses on it.
(It was an absolute shocking few years)

We in the Supporters Trust formed a new club, Hereford FC, and got ourselves back going from the very bottom. 3 promotions in a row, though we have been mired in mid-table at level 6 (Conference North) for the past 3 seasons.

PS - I hope to go back to Israel at some point in the next year or two. An absolutely beautiful country. Haifa was amazing.

Rubbish situation. So many solid division 3-4 clubs went through it (Chester had something similar). Hope you bounce back. Hereford has more place in the football league than the likes of Burton.

When in Haifa you’re welcome to DM me, first pint’s on me.

[CumbrianLefty]

Without going too off topic, I've never been happy with the argument some football clubs "deserve" to be in a certain tier more than others. One of the few saving graces of the English game is that teams get where they are on merit, even if that is of course true in a crude and imperfect sense in reality.

[Lechasseur]

Without going too off topic, I've never been happy with the argument some football clubs "deserve" to be in a certain tier more than others. One of the few saving graces of the English game is that teams get where they are on merit, even if that is of course true in a crude and imperfect sense in reality.

Hear, hear!
(Swansea City supporter)

Go Arsenal! Go Gunners!

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Hereford is one of the most underrated places in England from an architectural point of view. You have the cathedral and its precincts of course, but also such a wealth of buildings in that lovely solid West of England style that people (rightly) find so charming in Oxford. The city in general hasn't really recovered from the end of the Cold War and the loss of all that spending money from senior military and Secret State employees, of course, and things have not been helped by a council that doesn't even pretend to care about the place, but it still has a lot going for it.

Sadly, Hereford United went bankrupt in December 2014. This was as a result of years of financial mismanagement from 2010, before being bought by a convicted criminal who wanted to knock down the stadium for £'s and build houses on it.
(It was an absolute shocking few years)

And the rumour at the time was that his plan was that if that didn't work out, then he'd use the stadium for fly-tipping as he had done with some smaller clubs he had previously acquired in and around the west London suburbs.

[Del Tachi]

Somehow this conversation turned to soccer.

London losing population would put it in league with cities like New York and San Francisco that have had similarly restrictive COVID rules.  No one wants to pay that kind of money to live in a shutdown city. 

On the other hand, I think cities like Austin and Atlanta have been growing pretty much unabated. 

[Lechasseur]

Somehow this conversation turned to soccer.

London losing population would put it in league with cities like New York and San Francisco that have had similarly restrictive COVID rules.  No one wants to pay that kind of money to live in a shutdown city.  

On the other hand, I think cities like Austin and Atlanta have been growing pretty much unabated.  

Yeah, and it's happening with Paris as well (the difference being Paris proper has been losing population for the last 20-30 years, but Covid is accelerating it; the decent areas are just way too expensive for most people and the somewhat affordable parts of town are pretty much dumpster fires, so people have been leaving for the suburbs for a long time now).

I'm here because I moved just before Covid, but had a not moved yet when Covid hit, I definitely would not have gone through with the move.

As you said, no point paying all that money and dealing with big city stresses if you can't enjoy any of the positives of being in a big city.

That being said, the suburb I live in (which on the other hand is very nice and is fairly affordable for metropolitan Paris standards; it's my favorite town in the entire metropolitan area (even above Paris), hence why I chose to come here in particular) has been getting a lot of Parisians and expats since the 1980s and I expect the trend of pulling them away from Paris will continue with Covid.

[parochial boy]

Paris is somewhat different in that Paris Intra-muros is relatively much smaller compared to the metro area as a whole. It's probably specifically more like the inner London boroughs than Greater London as a whole; and the petite couronne, which has been the demographic motor of the Paris agglomeration, is probably more like London's outer boroughs. Except obviously, the Petite Couronne is outside of Paris "proper" but outer London is still "in" London.

If I'm remembering correctly, the growth in London has generally been faster in those outer boroughs too in recent years, so I would be curious to see what has being going on there this year.

Also second the point about Brexit, not only reducing London's attractiveness as a city but also fairly mechanically drying up the well of European migrants moving to the city (although, probably international migration as a whole has been miniscule this year, and as migrants as a whole tend to moves to cities, probably means the mechanical factor that is people moving in and replacing the stream of people who move out each year has all but dried up).

[Lechasseur]

Paris is somewhat different in that Paris Intra-muros is relatively much smaller compared to the metro area as a whole. It's probably specifically more like the inner London boroughs than Greater London as a whole; and the petite couronne, which has been the demographic motor of the Paris agglomeration, is probably more like London's outer boroughs. Except obviously, the Petite Couronne is outside of Paris "proper" but outer London is still "in" London.

If I'm remembering correctly, the growth in London has generally been faster in those outer boroughs too in recent years, so I would be curious to see what has being going on there this year.

Also second the point about Brexit, not only reducing London's attractiveness as a city but also fairly mechanically drying up the well of European migrants moving to the city (although, probably international migration as a whole has been miniscule this year, and as migrants as a whole tend to moves to cities, probably means the mechanical factor that is people moving in and replacing the stream of people who move out each year has all but dried up).

The Petite Couronne isn't really that much better (tbf I'm only really familiar with the Hauts-de-Seine, which is basically has the issues and extremes of Paris; and let's not even talk about the 93). If it's to live in the Petite Couronne, may as well either live within Paris intramuros or not live in the region at all.

In my experience it's people moving to the 78 (where I live) and the 95. That being said, I know a lot of people move to the 93 as well (but again, why bother living in the Ile-de-France at that point?)

Your normal people who would have lived in the 7th or 16th arrondissements in the 1990s (like my family did) to a large degree live in the part of the 78 I live in now. Even my dad said if ever he came back to the Ile-de-France he'd move here rather than into Paris. He even looks at real estate postings in this area from time to time.

[parochial boy]

The Petite Couronne isn't really that much better (tbf I'm only really familiar with the Hauts-de-Seine, which is basically has the issues and extremes of Paris; and let's not even talk about the 93). If it's to live in the Petite Couronne, may as well either live within Paris intramuros or not live in the region at all.

In my experience it's people moving to the 78 (where I live) and the 95. That being said, I know a lot of people move to the 93 as well (but again, why bother living in the Ile-de-France at that point?)

Your normal people who would have lived in the 7th or 16th arrondissements in the 1990s (like my family did) to a large degree live in the part of the 78 I live in now. Even my dad said if ever he came back to the Ile-de-France he'd move here rather than into Paris. He even looks at real estate postings in this area from time to time.

Ah, I checked and you are right - the Grande Couronne is generally growing faster, but the 93/94 are growing faster than the IdF average (think the 93 might be the highest of all at the moment, high birth rates), and even the Hauts-de-Seine are seeing some growth. So there is growth in the the Petite Couronne departments still, and unlike Paris.



I agree with you that if I was movong in that direction, I certainly wouldn't want to live in any of the Petite Couronne departments. But then again, I think some soulless périurbain lotissement pavillonaire in Essonne or Seine-et-Marne would be even worse, and those seem to be the sorts of places that are having the fastest growth of all at the moment.

[Storebought]

I mean the City of Paris itself declined over the 2010s (a small one), which as noted, is only about 1/6th the population of Grand Paris.

London's population, going by the passenger volumes of its vast transit network, peaked in 2016. It was never congruent to me that London's population reached 9 million even as fewer people (especially if people are moving to the outer boroughs) used its tube and buses, despite a very public fare freeze. And this is not like New York with people actively avoiding the subway and buses because of deteriorating service -- in addition to its population drop.

[Lechasseur]

The Petite Couronne isn't really that much better (tbf I'm only really familiar with the Hauts-de-Seine, which is basically has the issues and extremes of Paris; and let's not even talk about the 93). If it's to live in the Petite Couronne, may as well either live within Paris intramuros or not live in the region at all.

In my experience it's people moving to the 78 (where I live) and the 95. That being said, I know a lot of people move to the 93 as well (but again, why bother living in the Ile-de-France at that point?)

Your normal people who would have lived in the 7th or 16th arrondissements in the 1990s (like my family did) to a large degree live in the part of the 78 I live in now. Even my dad said if ever he came back to the Ile-de-France he'd move here rather than into Paris. He even looks at real estate postings in this area from time to time.

Ah, I checked and you are right - the Grande Couronne is generally growing faster, but the 93/94 are growing faster than the IdF average (think the 93 might be the highest of all at the moment, high birth rates), and even the Hauts-de-Seine are seeing some growth. So there is growth in the the Petite Couronne departments still, and unlike Paris.



I agree with you that if I was movong in that direction, I certainly wouldn't want to live in any of the Petite Couronne departments. But then again, I think some soulless périurbain lotissement pavillonaire in Essonne or Seine-et-Marne would be even worse, and those seem to be the sorts of places that are having the fastest growth of all at the moment.

Oh agreed

If you're not super wealthy, imo the Yvelines (my favorite department in the whole region) is the only one worth living in.

Yeah the Essonne has no appeal to me, I'd arguably rather live in Saint-Denis than live there (I most certainly would rather live in Saint-Denis than in the town I work in which is absolutely depressing, and it's in the 92).

But I think the Seine-et-Marne and the Essonne departments are the fastest growing ones because they're most likely the cheapest, given there's nothing there and they're not exactly near Paris. But yeah I most certainly would not want to live in either one. Yvelines or bust for me lol.

But yeah you can tell that the Ile-de-France is incredibly expensive compared to the rest of France. Mantes-la-Jolie, which is a pretty poor town near the Norman border, costs about as much as Lille Centre.

Longer term my plan is to move to Lyon if I don't have a special other or a good job holding me down here. I absolutely love it (I was so happy to have returned in October, that alone made October my best month since Covid hit) and I'd have most of the benefits of Paris without most of the downsides.

[Alcibiades]

London is an amazing city, I’d go every year if I could, but yeah not surprising. There’s really no point in living in a city when everything good is shut.

It really isn't. Not even the best city in the UK.
(That honour, of course, goes to Hereford!)

Maybe I’m biased because I’m a native of the place, but London is a fantastic city with so much to do. In the school holidays, I sometimes used to take a tube into central London and just wonder around for the whole day, and I would never get bored of it. I don’t think it’s really possible to compare it to anywhere else in the UK, because it’s so much larger than all of them.

[vileplume]

From the Guardian

London’s population is set to decline for the first time in more than 30 years, driven by the economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic and people reassessing where they live during the crisis, according to a report.

The accountancy firm PwC said the number of people living in the capital could fall by more than 300,000 this year, from a record level of about 9 million in 2020, to as low as 8.7 million. This would end decades of growth with the first annual drop since 1988.

---

I actually thought London's population was overestimated for a while now, even before the lockdowns etc. Its peer cities have been losing population over the same decade: New York was revised down from 8.6 million in 2016 to 8.3 million in 2019, and is likely below 8 million now, and Paris has dropped to "only" 2.1 million .

Interesting. It's been losing parliamentary seats since the 1970s. The abandoned parliamentary review was the first one since then where it was going to gain seats, with this information I doubt that will remain the case. The government will be pleased...

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

London is an amazing city, I’d go every year if I could, but yeah not surprising. There’s really no point in living in a city when everything good is shut.

It really isn't. Not even the best city in the UK.
(That honour, of course, goes to Hereford!)

Maybe I’m biased because I’m a native of the place, but London is a fantastic city with so much to do. In the school holidays, I sometimes used to take a tube into central London and just wonder around for the whole day, and I would never get bored of it. I don’t think it’s really possible to compare it to anywhere else in the UK, because it’s so much larger than all of them.

London is fine. I spent a semester living there and it definitely has a lot to offer, but I've always thought it isn't an objectively great city--at least not how its inhabitants think. London thinks it is one of the great hubs of the world but compared to New York or Tokyo or Hong Kong or even Paris it can just seem small and rather provincial. It doesn't have the energy and grandeur of some of its peer cities.

Just my two cents.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

If you're not super wealthy, imo the Yvelines (my favorite department in the whole region) is the only one worth living in.

Not Hauts-de-Seine? Like I get the argument against Paris even if I personally disagree, but the neighborhoods of Hauts-de-Seine seem like great alternatives--particularly Neuilly, Puteaux, Courbevoie, Nanterre, etc.

[F. Joe Haydn]

It seems rather telling that the last time the population declined was in 1988. I've always felt like the Thatcher years were a sort of dystopic period in the history of the modern UK, replete with a sense that society was falling apart at the seams, but at the same time I feel weirdly nostalgic for 80s Britain, rough as it was, despite never having been to Britain nor lived in the 1980s.

Here is London
Giddy London
Home of the brash, outrageous and free

[Citizen (The) Doctor]

London is an amazing city, I’d go every year if I could, but yeah not surprising. There’s really no point in living in a city when everything good is shut.

It really isn't. Not even the best city in the UK.
(That honour, of course, goes to Hereford!)

Maybe I’m biased because I’m a native of the place, but London is a fantastic city with so much to do. In the school holidays, I sometimes used to take a tube into central London and just wonder around for the whole day, and I would never get bored of it. I don’t think it’s really possible to compare it to anywhere else in the UK, because it’s so much larger than all of them.

London is fine. I spent a semester living there and it definitely has a lot to offer, but I've always thought it isn't an objectively great city--at least not how its inhabitants think. London thinks it is one of the great hubs of the world but compared to New York or Tokyo or Hong Kong or even Paris it can just seem small and rather provincial. It doesn't have the energy and grandeur of some of its peer cities.

Just my two cents.

As the hub of the old empire, it still feels like there's an air of grandeur to it but unlike the other cities listed it is a place that is in relative decline in global importance, which I suppose colors any sort of aspirational feeling there is to the city.

That said, I miss it dearly. There's few other places in the world like it.

[Lechasseur]

If you're not super wealthy, imo the Yvelines (my favorite department in the whole region) is the only one worth living in.

Not Hauts-de-Seine? Like I get the argument against Paris even if I personally disagree, but the neighborhoods of Hauts-de-Seine seem like great alternatives--particularly Neuilly, Puteaux, Courbevoie, Nanterre, etc.

I was actually born in Neuilly lol

The thing is, the decent areas are so expensive you may as well live in Paris proper. I don't think Neuilly is much cheaper than the decent parts of Paris.

Tbf though, living in Neuilly is all but equivalent to living in Paris itself, just it has a different mayor lol.

Dunno if you got my point here or not.