Moldovan Elections&Politics

[RGM2609]

Time for an update!

A few days ago, the Prime Minister of Moldova Natalia Gavrilita resigned, more likely due to pressure from President Sandu rather than of her own volition. Reasons for this are many: the popularity of PAS was dropping due to the multiple crises the government has faced, and Sandu had lots of complaints about the governmental activity, specifically that of some Ministers. By managing to force this resignation, Sandu strengthens even more her total control over PAS.

Sandu has appointed Dorin Recean as Gavrilita's replacement. He is tasked to form another PAS government, which will likely have, with some exceptions, a similar Ministerial lineup. Recean started his career in the Liberal Democratic Party, just like Sandu (and many other PAS leaders), having served as Minister of Internal Affairs between 2012 and 2015. During this timeframe, he distinguished himself as one of the few people willing to stand up to oligarch Vladimir Plahotniuc rather than succumb to his every whim. In 2022, he became Maia Sandu's National Security Advisor.

Recean's appointment is both an attempt at boosting the popularity of PAS and a response to the concerning news about Russian plans to launch a coup in Moldova, which were publicly revealed by Ukrainian President Zelensky a few days ago and confirmed by Sandu today.

[Storr]

Biden meets with Sandu in Warsaw:

https://twitter.com/MarQs__/status/1628143541997252609?s=20

[Storr]

"The Moldovan Parliament adopted a law recognizing the Moldovan language as Romanian"

[Storr]

Shor fled to Israel (he is Jewish) after stealing $1 Billion from Moldovan banks in 2014:

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1646593510697582592?s=20

[MRCVzla]

Moldovan Constitutional Court has declared unconstitutional and banned the pro-Russian Șor Party, elected officials will remain as independents without being allowed to joining another party/group.
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1670825059928137729

[Storr]

What do you know?

https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1703124193020104858?s=20

[RGM2609]

New poll, less than two years before the election:

Action and Solidarity Party - 41%
Sor group - 18%
Party of Socialists - 16%

Party of Communists - 4%
Party of Development and Consolidation - 4%
National Alternative Movement - 4%
Our Party - 3%
Others - 10%

There will be local elections later this fall. In the Chisinau election, which is the main event, it's extremely likely that the popular incumbent Mayor Ion Ceban, ex-PSRM now the leader of the "National Alternative", will win reelection, as neither PAS nor his ex-colleagues put any serious candidates against him.

[Keep Calm and ...]

Every single vote matters

https://twitter.com/electo_mania/status/1726600272615759994

[Storr]

Based. It makes sense Moldova could join the EU without controlling Transnistria as West Germany and Cyprus joined the EU (or its predecessor organization) without being in full control of their claimed territory. This news important because no EU official had said it publicly before (afaik):

"⚡️EU ambassador: Moldova can join EU without Transnistria.

"We wouldn't see it (as) fair if (Moldova) is taken hostage by the solution to this quite complex problem," said the EU's ambassador to Moldova, Janis Mazeiks."

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1734567794304254010?s=20

[RGM2609]

This year will be huge in Moldova: this autumn, presidential elections will be held after incumbent pro-European President Maia Sandu's term expires. She has already announced her candidacy for re-election, and all polls show that her main opponent is also a former President, now charged with corruption and high treason, Igor Dodon, who is also a fanatical Russian bootlicker. His handlers seemed quite displeased with Dodon losing the last elections and tested other alternatives involving fugitive oligarch Ilan Shor, but now it seems they're back to the original plan. It is difficult to say who will be favored in the rematch. On one hand, Russia is hardly popular following the invasion of Ukraine and the people rejected Dodon last time, on the other Sandu is also not beloved given that the last years of PAS governments meant a decline in the already low living standards. Then it also comes the question of how far the West and Russia will go to get the victory for their favorite. All in all, this will be a fascinating proxy war of an election.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Based. It makes sense Moldova could join the EU without controlling Transnistria as West Germany and Cyprus joined the EU (or its predecessor organization) without being in full control of their claimed territory. This news important because no EU official had said it publicly before (afaik):

"⚡️EU ambassador: Moldova can join EU without Transnistria.

"We wouldn't see it (as) fair if (Moldova) is taken hostage by the solution to this quite complex problem," said the EU's ambassador to Moldova, Janis Mazeiks."

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1734567794304254010?s=20

Moldova also could just join Romania and get EU and NATO membership for free.

[Storr]

Based. It makes sense Moldova could join the EU without controlling Transnistria as West Germany and Cyprus joined the EU (or its predecessor organization) without being in full control of their claimed territory. This news important because no EU official had said it publicly before (afaik):

"⚡️EU ambassador: Moldova can join EU without Transnistria.

"We wouldn't see it (as) fair if (Moldova) is taken hostage by the solution to this quite complex problem," said the EU's ambassador to Moldova, Janis Mazeiks."

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1734567794304254010?s=20

Moldova also could just join Romania and get EU and NATO membership for free.

The main issue with unification is that Moldovans are at best split on the issue. I assume the Romanian people and politicians would be in favor of absorbing Moldova. (That is assuming Transnistria would not trigger a war with Russia. I'd imagine a union would de jure include Transnistria, but de facto only include areas currently under Moldovan control/authority.) I am under that assumption because despite the massive financial burden it would entail due to Moldova being very poor, doing so would right the historic national wrong of having Moldova taken from Romania in 1940.

From wikipedia:

[RGM2609]

To add to what Storr said, the aforementioned Dodon did threaten with a civil war if Romania tries to absorb Moldova, and I don't think he was wrong. Even overlooking Transnistria and UTA Gagauzia, there is a mass of some 40% of Moldova's population brainwashed by decades of Russian propaganda painting Romania as the devil and "Moldovan" as an actual language and culture. The best we can hope for right now is for the country to maintain its pro-Romania and pro-EU route.

[Storr]

“Moldova, iData poll:

Presidential election

Sandu (*-EPP): 41% (+11)
Dodon (PSRM~LEFT): 20% (+2)
Chicu (PDCM-*): 8% (+2)
Ceban (MAN~S&D): 7%
Vlah (*): 6% (+3)
Usatîi (PN-*): 4% (-1)
Voronin (PCRM-LEFT): 4% (n.a.)
Munteanu (CUB-RE): 1% (new)
Bologan (*): 1% (new)

+/- vs. 27 April-8 May 2023

Fieldwork: 18-24 March 2024
Sample size: 1,131”

https://twitter.com/europeelects/status/1773728878491476362?s=46&t=6jpYJhVnA...