Moldovan Elections&Politics

[RGM2609]

I have created this thread in order to provide updates whenever something relevant happens. It will be hard to keep up with the permanent political crises happening there but I'll do my best! Right now the newly elected President Maia Sandu (PAS) is struggling to find a way to dissolve the current Parliament and host snap elections as PSRM continues to control the government.

[RGM2609]

Given that snap elections seem to be a possibility if Sandu can find a way around the PSRM control, here is the last poll (keep in mind that Moldovan polls tend to be rather inaccurate) -

Action and Solidarity Party - 37%
Party of Socialists - 33%
Sor Party - 13%
Our Party - 8%

Also seat projections -

Action and Solidarity - 41 seats
Socialists - 36 seats
Sor - 15 seats
Our Party - 9 seats

If this would be the Parliamentary composition, the outcome would be a coalition between PSRM and Sor Party, which is already functioning in the Parliament unofficially.

[CumbrianLefty]

So what exactly are Sor and "Our Party"?

[RGM2609]

So what exactly are Sor and "Our Party"?

Sor Party is named after oligarch Ilan Sor, its chairman. Sor is notorious for masterminding a scheme to steal over 1 billion dollars from 3 banks, a large part of which ended up in the pockets of high-ranking politicians. That sum represents over 10% of Moldovan GDP, so it is huge. Since then, he rebranded himself as a man of the people and a benevolent businessman. He at some point got elected Mayor of a big (by Moldovan standards) city and used the office to give all kinds of populist handouts to people. From there, he formed a paternalistic, national conservative and pro-Russian party which got into Parliament in 2019 and has a steady base in the poor and old people from rural areas.

Our Party is pretty similar actually, it is controlled by shady oligarch Renato Usatii which is the Mayor of a big city too. It is populist and Pro-Russian and its base are right now people who sympathize with the Russians but dislike Dodon and his oligarchic actions. Going through its history would need a post on its own, but it involves its leader repeatedly fleeing to Russia to avoid prosecution, it being removed from the ballots a week before an election, phone tampering accusations, an invasion of the Moldovan Parliament similar to what happened in the US and so on... Moldova never gets tired of electing these types of parties and then wondering why all politicians are thieves.

[RGM2609]

In this post, I will attempt to explain the political crisis that is happening in Moldova right now, who it is plaguing the country at a moment of great peril and how it might get fixed -

Before Maia Sandu won the Presidential election, Dodon had managed to replace now-fugitive Vladimir Plahotniuc as the Supreme Oligarch of the country. He had installed a PSRM government masquerading as a technocratic government in place and had a Prime Minister, Ion Chicu, who was docile and followed all of his orders. He formed a majority with what was left of the pro-Plahotniuc party, PDM, and after they got kicked out of the government, other parties would have joined had Dodon won the Presidential election.

Now that Sandu won, PSRM is trying to cling on to whatever power they have left. The original Prime Minister has resigned but Sandu could only appoint another official from this government to fill in the position before a new government is appointed (complicated laws, I may go into detail if there is interest). So basically she is stuck with a lame duck socialist government pretending to be technocratic which is unable to do much given that it is lame duck so the country is kind of ungoverned.

All sides want a certain outcome out of this -

1. President Sandu and her party want the Parliament to get dissolved. They know that to set up a government given the current composition would be an electoral disaster and the PSRM majority would block them from doing anything, but they also obviously do not want the socialists to continue to govern.

2. PSRM officially claims to want snap elections because that is the popular position, but they know they risk losing everything and desperately want to avoid it. They also want to avoid taking over the government officially to avoid being blamed by the public for the difficult situation. They would prefer the lame duck situation to continue for some time or, ideally, for Sandu to set up a government of her own that the socialists would sabotage from Parliament.

3. The Sor Party would like to avoid snap elections as they are currently in a powerful position, and so would want the ex-PDMers who would be kicked out of Parliament for sure. Their stance is the same as the one of PSRM.

4. It is unclear what the Dignity and Truth Party wants, given that it is currently under the threshold in polls but still asks for snap elections. They might hope to revive their broken alliance with Sandu?

This whole thing is likely to be decided by the Courts. As PSRM would try to sabotage the two current ways of dissolving the Parliament (by not electing a Prime Minister in 45 days or not passing laws in 3 months), Sandu wants to allow the Parliament to vote to self-dissolve, forcing the socialists to reveal their true stance, and to give more powers to the lame-duck govt so the country is still having an Executive.

As to the outcome, I would say that Sandu is probably advantaged and there will be snap elections. PSRM will not be able to continue this game forever - they will either have to officially assume government or declare a Prime Minister will not be elected and thus, snap elections. Seizing the government right now would be a major mistake for Sandu and I doubt she would make it.

[RGM2609]

The Constitutional Court has declared that the Sandu proposal for the Parliament to self-dissolve is unconstitutional. Thus, Sandu may actually have to nominate a Prime Minister in order to trigger the procedure for snap elections. Of course, anyone she nominates may be at risk of being appointed, given that so many of the MPs would rather not risk their seats. PSRM has sent an ultimatum to Sandu to nominate someone by February 1st.

[RGM2609]

A decision was taken by the Constitutional Court that is sure to have major consequences over the political climate: they have ruled that the PSRM attempt in December to officialize the Russian language and declare it as language of all ethnic minorities was unconstitutional, despite attempts from the incumbent socialist government to save their policy. Outside, massive protests were ongoing, with fights between those on opposing sides of the culture war. The violence escalated so much that the Foreign Minister, there to defend the PSRM initiative, was almost beaten up by the anti-Russians. The Constitutional Court also ruled again that Romanian (not the so-called Moldovian) was the only official language.

The reactions from the Russian Embassy and their puppet party, PSRM, were quick to follow. They accused the Court of xenophobia and bringing the country back to the early 90s as well as threatening the so-called reunification process with Transnistria. PSRM has pledged to pass such a law again and threatened with mass protests.

[RGM2609]

A new poll by ASDM shows the same 4 parties getting into Parliament -

Action and Solidarity - 33.9%
Socialists - 33.2%
Sor Party - 12.9%
Our Party - 7.5%

Dignity and Truth - 4.4%
Communists - 2.9%
Democratic - 1.1%

What this shows is that, despite gains in popularity by Action and Solidarity, the most likely coalition after snap elections right now is still one between PSRM and Sor, the one already functioning unofficially.

When asked, 70% support organizing snap elections and only 21% oppose them. On what politician they trust the most, 35% say they trust President Sandu with Former President Dodon a close second with 31% and no one else over 10%.

[RGM2609]

Sandu has finally proposed a PM candidate in former Finance Minister and PAS member Natalia Gavrilita. If she and another candidate both get rejected, snap elections will be held.

In what ammounts to a laughable situation, PAS has already committed to voting against their own member, while the socialists and Sor are still "considering their options". They would sure love for PAS to take over the mess and be blamed for it while they sit comfortably in Parliament.

[Lord Halifax]

A new poll by ASDM shows the same 4 parties getting into Parliament -

Action and Solidarity - 33.9%
Socialists - 33.2%
Sor Party - 12.9%
Our Party - 7.5%

Dignity and Truth - 4.4%
Communists - 2.9%
Democratic - 1.1%

What this shows is that, despite gains in popularity by Action and Solidarity, the most likely coalition after snap elections right now is still one between PSRM and Sor, the one already functioning unofficially.

When asked, 70% support organizing snap elections and only 21% oppose them. On what politician they trust the most, 35% say they trust President Sandu with Former President Dodon a close second with 31% and no one else over 10%.

Why doesn't Dignity and Truth merge into PAS? Năstase doesn't seem to have any chance of playing an independent role.

[RGM2609]

A new poll by ASDM shows the same 4 parties getting into Parliament -

Action and Solidarity - 33.9%
Socialists - 33.2%
Sor Party - 12.9%
Our Party - 7.5%

Dignity and Truth - 4.4%
Communists - 2.9%
Democratic - 1.1%

What this shows is that, despite gains in popularity by Action and Solidarity, the most likely coalition after snap elections right now is still one between PSRM and Sor, the one already functioning unofficially.

When asked, 70% support organizing snap elections and only 21% oppose them. On what politician they trust the most, 35% say they trust President Sandu with Former President Dodon a close second with 31% and no one else over 10%.

Why doesn't Dignity and Truth merge into PAS? Năstase doesn't seem to have any chance of playing an independent role.

There are multiple causes. Nastase clearly has a pretty big ego and there is no love between him and Sandu to say the least. There is also a lot of animosity between the structures and members of the two parties. And Dignity and Truth has some powerful backers that may not be interested in losing their political vehicle.

But the most important cause is probably this - if PAS takes over this horrible situation that Moldova finds itself in on its own, and some of their voters predictably abandon them, who do you think they would go to? Dignity and Truth may come back roaring in this scenario (if they are not stupid enough to join PAS in government)

[Lord Halifax]

Dignity and Truth has some powerful backers

Who?

[RGM2609]

Dignity and Truth has some powerful backers

Who?

The Topa family, who are some wealthy businessmen in exile because of some investigations Plahotniuc started against them in Moldova. They also own a major media group which has served as a propaganda outlet for Dignity and Truth

[Flyersfan232]

would would the sandu party's best bet would be outside of a majority? deal with pn?

[RGM2609]

would would the sandu party's best bet would be outside of a majority? deal with pn?

Yes probably. If the polling is correct (which is a big if, especially in Moldova) and only those 4 parties get into Parliament. Action and Solidarity might have the minimum goodwill required to start negotiations with Our Party, which is something it certainly does not have with Socialists or Sor. Needless to say however, the negotiations would be insanely tough and if they make it out of them it would lead to an extremely awkward and unpopular coalition.

Another option would be for Action and Solidarity to form a minority government with confidence-and-supply from Our Party (to avoid the backlash of an official coalition). But even so...I am very skeptical.

[Flyersfan232]

would would the sandu party's best bet would be outside of a majority? deal with pn?

Yes probably. If the polling is correct (which is a big if, especially in Moldova) and only those 4 parties get into Parliament. Action and Solidarity might have the minimum goodwill required to start negotiations with Our Party, which is something it certainly does not have with Socialists or Sor. Needless to say however, the negotiations would be insanely tough and if they make it out of them it would lead to an extremely awkward and unpopular coalition.

Another option would be for Action and Solidarity to form a minority government with confidence-and-supply from Our Party (to avoid the backlash of an official coalition). But even so...I am very skeptical.

and majority for action and solidarity is possible?

[RGM2609]

would would the sandu party's best bet would be outside of a majority? deal with pn?

Yes probably. If the polling is correct (which is a big if, especially in Moldova) and only those 4 parties get into Parliament. Action and Solidarity might have the minimum goodwill required to start negotiations with Our Party, which is something it certainly does not have with Socialists or Sor. Needless to say however, the negotiations would be insanely tough and if they make it out of them it would lead to an extremely awkward and unpopular coalition.

Another option would be for Action and Solidarity to form a minority government with confidence-and-supply from Our Party (to avoid the backlash of an official coalition). But even so...I am very skeptical.

and majority for action and solidarity is possible?

I suppose. It would require the polls to be very wrong, but it happens all the time. They would probably also need Dignity and Truth to make it in the Parliament to have a shot.

[Flyersfan232]

Also what needs to happen for Moldova to reunite with Romania

[RGM2609]

Also what needs to happen for Moldova to reunite with Romania

Unclear. As much as I and maybe up around a third of those living in Moldova want it, the path ahead is rocky. It would probably need public support to rise to about 50% in order to force the moderate right parties like Action and Solidarity to openly back unionism. That may well happen within the next decade if the economic situation continues to get worse and joining the European Union is admitted to be a pipe dream. From there however, an unionist government would be fought tooth-and-nail by the pro-Russian half of the country. There will certainly be massive riots, attempts at secession or even civil war. Assuming the riots are put down, many people may simply move to Transnistria or UTA Gagauzia to avoid living in Romania. It is not certain how aggressively Russia will react to union attempts, but it may get very ugly if they do.

[RGM2609]

Idata poll:

Action and Solidarity - 38%
Socialists - 32.8%
Sor Party - 10.8%

Our Party - 5%
Dignity and Truth - 4.8%
Communists - 3.3%

This is the first poll which shows Our Party under the threshold, which is a bit doubtful giving the results of the presidential election. Obviously, this would make it much easier for PSRM to form a government.

[RGM2609]

So, the proposed Prime Minister has published her list of ministers - they are all PAS members or technocrats close to the party. Of course, all of them hope they will not be voted to bring Moldova closer to snap elections. The socialists have said they will not vote for the government, however there are no guarantees they will not change their mind. For now, a rejection of the proposed government is the most likely outcome, which is exactly what the President and proposed PM want. The vote will likely take place in a few days.

[Former President tack50]

What happened to the Democratic Party of Moldova?

[RGM2609]

What happened to the Democratic Party of Moldova?

Well, after they lost all power and their owner left the country, their MPs splited into 3 factions: the official Democratic Party led by former PM Pavel Filip, Pro-Moldova led by former Speaker and Plahotniuc's son-in-law Andrian Candu, and For Moldova, which is allied with the Sor Party. Yeah, it is complicated.

The "official" party joined Dodon's government in hope of maintaining some power but got kicked out of it when the socialists wanted to get the entire power and found the Democrats no longer useful. It continues to have strong local organizations and many mayors but that does not help with their popular support, which has all been lost since Plahotniuc ran away after a failed coup which took away their ability to give populist hand outs to people or threaten them to vote DPM with the governmental power.

Pro Moldova does not exist in the country outside of Parliament. It is probably just an organization for when Plahotniuc wants/is able to come back to Moldova. For Moldova will either merge with Sor or disappear once they are out of Parliament.

[Estrella]

Is the same electoral system in place as last time round? If so, would PAS benefit from vote splitting between PSRM, Șor and Our Party?

[RGM2609]

Is the same electoral system in place as last time round? If so, would PAS benefit from vote splitting between PSRM, Șor and Our Party?

No, they returned to fully proportional.