Israel & Lebanon war-ish

[Platypus]

Israel has bombed Beirut's arport, the Lebanese have retaliated, it's getting messy. Israel has now imosed a blockade on Lebanon.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/5175160.stm

[WalterMitty]

i can only hope israel takes out the terrorist regime in syria.

[12th Doctor]

Yay... it's WWIII

[Colin]

This is it. This is the big Mideast war that has been on the verge of starting since the 80's. This isn't war-ish this is a war.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

i can only hope israel takes out the terrorist regime in syria.

Why are you so obsessed with Syria? Of course it's an awful dictaotrship and has funded terrorists and all that, but it's not really any different than most of the other regimes in the region.

They aren't even relevant here anyway, since the Lebanese government is no longer pro-Syria.

[nini2287]

I have a couple friends in Israel right now, one of whom is right on the Lebanon border.  This is pretty scary.

[WMS]

Hopefully Hezbollah will finally reap what it has sown. And this is also exposing that the Lebanese government has been too afraid to face down Hezbollah...and now is paying a price for that. I think the Israelis have finally had it with the duplicity of some of their neighbors...

[Michael Z]

Hopefully Hezbollah will finally reap what it has sown. And this is also exposing that the Lebanese government has been too afraid to face down Hezbollah...and now is paying a price for that. I think the Israelis have finally had it with the duplicity of some of their neighbors...

The trouble is that Hezbollah are extremely popular with the Lebanese people, so no government has had the guts to do anything about them, lest they risk getting obliterated at the ballot box.

On this note, Shimon Peres has made it very clear that this campaign is against Hezbollah (the group) and not Lebanon per se. Clearly, this is just rhetoric, but it's welcome rhetoric.

Anyway, I personally doubt this will escalate into an all-out war, as some people here are suggesting. But that's just a gut feeling I have.

[WMS]

Hopefully Hezbollah will finally reap what it has sown. And this is also exposing that the Lebanese government has been too afraid to face down Hezbollah...and now is paying a price for that. I think the Israelis have finally had it with the duplicity of some of their neighbors...

The trouble is that Hezbollah are extremely popular with the Lebanese people, so no government has had the guts to do anything about them, lest they risk getting obliterated at the ballot box.

On this note, Shimon Peres has made it very clear that this campaign is against Hezbollah (the group) and not Lebanon per se. Clearly, this is just rhetoric, but it's welcome rhetoric.

Anyway, I personally doubt this will escalate into an all-out war, as some people here are suggesting. But that's just a gut feeling I have.

Well, Hezbollah is popular among a certain segment of the population, a very well-armed segment. Given that Hezbollah is running their own state in the Bekaa Valley, that doesn't say much for the central government's control.

And good to see Peres saying that.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The problem is that the Lebanese army is around 40% Shiite reflecting the population at large, and if they tried to take action against Hezbollah there'd be mass desertations and defections from that portion and possibly a mass Shiite uprising. It's safe to say there is virtually no love for Hezbollah at all from the Christian, Sunni and Druze populations, but they won't do anything about it because of...well what happened the last time they tried that.

[Colin]

Hopefully Hezbollah will finally reap what it has sown. And this is also exposing that the Lebanese government has been too afraid to face down Hezbollah...and now is paying a price for that. I think the Israelis have finally had it with the duplicity of some of their neighbors...

The trouble is that Hezbollah are extremely popular with the Lebanese people, so no government has had the guts to do anything about them, lest they risk getting obliterated at the ballot box.

On this note, Shimon Peres has made it very clear that this campaign is against Hezbollah (the group) and not Lebanon per se. Clearly, this is just rhetoric, but it's welcome rhetoric.

Anyway, I personally doubt this will escalate into an all-out war, as some people here are suggesting. But that's just a gut feeling I have.

Hezbollah isn't popular with the Lebanese. It's popular with pro-Syrian Shia. It's as equally hated by the Maronites, Orthodox, and Druze which it fought against during the Civil War. Their pro-Syrian ideological slant also makes them enemies of those who supported the so-called "Cedar Revolution" last year.

Unlike most Arab countries you cannot make broad statements like "the Lebanese people support Hezbollah" since the country is so divided and so diverse that it is hard to gauge the support for various groups. Though I can gaurentee you that the Maronites and Druze, especially the Druze who Hezbollah have considered not Muslim, heretical, and lower human beings, to not be that supportive of Hezbollah's actions or the group itself.

[ATFFL]

I would not be too surprised if there were some backroom deals between the Lebanese gov't and the Israelis.  Something along the lines of "You come in and deal with Hezbollah and then leave when they are eliminated and we stand up to you so we look like we booted you out."

[WalterMitty]

i can only hope israel takes out the terrorist regime in syria.

Why are you so obsessed with Syria? Of course it's an awful dictaotrship and has funded terrorists and all that, but it's not really any different than most of the other regimes in the region.

They aren't even relevant here anyway, since the Lebanese government is no longer pro-Syria.

obviously hezbollah gets most of its support from damascus and tehran.

if israel wants to wipe out hezbollah, they must knock out the regimes that support them.

[J. J.]

The Saudi's just issued a statement stating that Israel was provoked.  That's interesting.

There now is an alternative Shi'ite leadership to Iran.  It's called Iraq.

Iran has said that an attack on Syria would be an attack on the Muslim world.  I kinda doubt that Lebanon, Jordan, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt would agree.

Time to take Syria out of the equation?

[ATFFL]

The Saudi's just issued a statement stating that Israel was provoked.  That's interesting.

There now is an alternative Shi'ite leadership to Iran.  It's called Iraq.

Iran has said that an attack on Syria would be an attack on the Muslim world.  I kinda doubt that Lebanon, Jordan, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt would agree.

Time to take Syria out of the equation?

Most of the Arab world is condemning Hezbollah over all this and calling on both sides to avoid targetting civillians. 

Good for them.  The tide might actually be truning against radical Islam.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

obviously hezbollah gets most of its support from damascus and tehran.

if israel wants to wipe out hezbollah, they must knock out the regimes that support them.

sounds like a plan!  and a darn good one at that!

[Kevin]

I have a feeling that Syria may be drawn into this sooner or later.

[ATFFL]

I have a feeling that Syria may be drawn into this sooner or later.

I have a feeling that is something many sides in this want.

[DanielX]

I have a feeling that Syria may be drawn into this sooner or later.

Which could be devastating.

Think about it: Syria is supporting Hezbollah. From time to time Israel even hits targets inside Syria. Let's say that happens, or someone thinks it did, and the Israel/Syria border becomes ugly.

Enter Iran. Iran's President might follow up on his threat and launch missiles (which may or may not be nuclear) at Israel and perhaps Iraq, and invade Iraq intending to 'liberate it' from 'Zionist oppressors'. Boom. Big war, possibly World War Three.

[J. J.]

I have a feeling that Syria may be drawn into this sooner or later.

I have a feeling that is something many sides in this want.

I look at how well Syria did in the 1973, with Iraqi help.  Damascus was shelled.  I would not want to be in Syria today.

[MasterJedi]

I have a feeling that Syria may be drawn into this sooner or later.

Which could be devastating.

Think about it: Syria is supporting Hezbollah. From time to time Israel even hits targets inside Syria. Let's say that happens, or someone thinks it did, and the Israel/Syria border becomes ugly.

Enter Iran. Iran's President might follow up on his threat and launch missiles (which may or may not be nuclear) at Israel and perhaps Iraq, and invade Iraq intending to 'liberate it' from 'Zionist oppressors'. Boom. Big war, possibly World War Three.

Bad situation that shouldn't happen but it would be a start to fixing Lebanon, Syria and Iran.

[NewFederalist]

I have a feeling that Syria may be drawn into this sooner or later.

Which could be devastating.

Think about it: Syria is supporting Hezbollah. From time to time Israel even hits targets inside Syria. Let's say that happens, or someone thinks it did, and the Israel/Syria border becomes ugly.

Enter Iran. Iran's President might follow up on his threat and launch missiles (which may or may not be nuclear) at Israel and perhaps Iraq, and invade Iraq intending to 'liberate it' from 'Zionist oppressors'. Boom. Big war, possibly World War Three.

Remember only one side has nuclear weapons at this point. If Syria and Iran come in they risk near annihilation.

[Colin]

I have a feeling that Syria may be drawn into this sooner or later.

Enter Iran. Iran's President might follow up on his threat and launch missiles (which may or may not be nuclear) at Israel and perhaps Iraq, and invade Iraq intending to 'liberate it' from 'Zionist oppressors'. Boom. Big war, possibly World War Three.

Problem is Iran currently doesn't have any missiles that are known to have the capability of reaching Israel. Secondly it is a known fact that Iran doesn't have any sort of nuclear weapon especially one small enough to place onto a missile of any type (this is one thing people always assume that anytime you create a nuclear warhead it automatically goes into a ballistic missile which just isn't true). Third the Iranians, if they want this to be anything, they want it to be a diversion away from the constant focus upon their weapons programs. They want to make sure that at the G8 summit that is coming up the leaders talk about this new crisis and not what to do with Iran in order to buy more time from the international community.

[Colin]

Worst case scenario for this probably goes like this:

Syria becomes involved either via an outbreak of conflict in the Golan Heights or through Hezbollah. It then moves troops both into Lebanon and South against the Golan Heights and Israel. It will probably claim to be protecting Lebanese sovereignty from the evil Zionists or something akin to that.

Iran, because it has a mutual defence pact with Syria, send troops, weaponry etc. into Lebanon through Hezbollah and directly to the Syrian armed forces.

Whether the rest of the Arab world gets involved is another story entirely. However unlike prior Arab-Israeli conflicts the Israelis do not have to worry about attacks from Egypt or from Jordan, since I doubt that pro-western moderate King Abdullah would support attacking Israel.

[ottermax]

What ever happened to peace and diplomacy?