GA (Trafalgar) - Ossoff +1, Loeffler +1

[LeBron]

https://twitter.com/RobertCahaly/status/1346462407107948544?s=20

https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/news/ga-sen-0105/

[Sir Mohamed]

LOL Trashfalgar

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Spenstar will be vindicated

[LeBron]

Even though it's Trafalgar, I honestly wouldn't be surprised by this result. Now don't get me wrong, the idea of an R/D split in the Senate races is overrated and I'm >95% sure it will be D/D or R/R, but if there is a split Ossoff/Loeffler seems much more likely to me than Perdue/Warnock.

[Roll Roons]

Their final presidential poll in GA was Trump +4. Soooo...

[KaiserDave]

Don't care (shrug)


Although LeBron is right about how a split decision could break

[ElectionsGuy]

They're just putting this out so they can put out a Perdue+6, Loeffler+8 poll the day before Runoff Day and claim they have momentum.

Oh look, 14 people make fools of themselves. You notice how you only get hostile 'Trashfalgar' posts when it's them and not when it's any other pollster who is finding almost the same exact results? Maybe they're not a fake and fraudulent Republican hack polling firm, and maybe people have an irrational hatred of them just because they're R affiliated.

[KaiserDave]

They're just putting this out so they can put out a Perdue+6, Loeffler+8 poll the day before Runoff Day and claim they have momentum.

Oh look, 14 people make fools of themselves. You notice how you only get hostile 'Trashfalgar' posts when it's them and not when it's any other pollster who is finding almost the same exact results? Maybe they're not a fake and fraudulent Republican hack polling firm, and maybe people have an irrational hatred of them just because they're R affiliated.

Oh look, ElectionsGuy is posting another silly generalization to justify his bad predictions and dunk on the libs. Clap clap clap clap.

And yes, Trafalgar does have a long history of very bad polls. Partisan pollsters are almost always terrible, and Trafalgar is just another one of them.

[YE]

They're just putting this out so they can put out a Perdue+6, Loeffler+8 poll the day before Runoff Day and claim they have momentum.

Oh look, 14 people make fools of themselves. You notice how you only get hostile 'Trashfalgar' posts when it's them and not when it's any other pollster who is finding almost the same exact results? Maybe they're not a fake and fraudulent Republican hack polling firm, and maybe people have an irrational hatred of them just because they're R affiliated.

I mean his overall point still holds true and it’s also possible Trafalgar (which many people even outside the forum have questioned their methods) isn’t scientific poll and whose success is more of a coincidence than anything else. And considering you seem to have a similar hatred and type aggressive posts attacking PPP (who tbf’s glory days just like most pollsters are far behind them)...

[Skill and Chance]

LOL we finally got a poll with Ossoff/Loeffler victories.

[ElectionsGuy]

They're just putting this out so they can put out a Perdue+6, Loeffler+8 poll the day before Runoff Day and claim they have momentum.

Oh look, 14 people make fools of themselves. You notice how you only get hostile 'Trashfalgar' posts when it's them and not when it's any other pollster who is finding almost the same exact results? Maybe they're not a fake and fraudulent Republican hack polling firm, and maybe people have an irrational hatred of them just because they're R affiliated.

Oh look, ElectionsGuy is posting another silly generalization to justify his bad predictions and dunk on the libs. Clap clap clap clap.

And yes, Trafalgar does have a long history of very bad polls. Partisan pollsters are almost always terrible, and Trafalgar is just another one of them.

Maybe take a look at my predictions before calling them bad? If I had bad predictions, I don't even know what you'd call most others. Or once again, you're disingenuously defining a prediction as 'bad' if it calls the winner wrong and just disregards margins for the sake of attacking me. I have discussed this before, but you continue to do this.

As far as Trafalgar is concerned, they have some very bad polls of Georgia in the past, so it should be taken lightly. But the fact that they're not significantly more Republican than the average of polls here - when they were way outside the average (and more accurate in most cases) than other polls in November - should actually be quite notable, and a partisan Republican pollster doesn't exactly have an incentive to publish a poll with Democrats leading at all. My broader point is that only Trafalgar gets this kind of treatment, is any of the mainstream media polls going to get the same kind of treatment from now on, despite being less accurate? Or is Nate Silver's pollster scorecard more important in how we treat certain pollsters?

[ElectionsGuy]

They're just putting this out so they can put out a Perdue+6, Loeffler+8 poll the day before Runoff Day and claim they have momentum.

Oh look, 14 people make fools of themselves. You notice how you only get hostile 'Trashfalgar' posts when it's them and not when it's any other pollster who is finding almost the same exact results? Maybe they're not a fake and fraudulent Republican hack polling firm, and maybe people have an irrational hatred of them just because they're R affiliated.

I mean his overall point still holds true and it’s also possible Trafalgar (which many people even outside the forum have questioned their methods) isn’t scientific poll and whose success is more of a coincidence than anything else. And considering you seem to have a similar hatred and type aggressive posts attacking PPP (who tbf’s glory days just like most pollsters are far behind them)...

What overall point? The claim didn't come close to bearing out, showing that people here have falsely projected ill intentions on the pollster. And after three election cycles of being more accurate than many previously thought of gold standard polls, it should incredibly dubious to continue to say that just keep getting lucky and don't have a proper method (even though I would like to see more details in their polls myself). With PPP, It's clear as day they are not only a bad pollster accuracy wise (even though prior to 2020 it was claimed their methodology was fantastic despite them being partisan), but they also engaged in partisan antics of dumb questions designed to make Republicans look stupid (which succeeded) and omission of certain questions that could hurt Democrats or the media narrative. It is not professional behavior that a serious pollster does.  Trafalgar does not engage in similar antics in their polling, not counting whatever opinions Cahaly says on social media, etc.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Trafalgar almost never shows Dems ahead in error - and NEVER has before for a Senate race or any race in Georgia.

So Ossoff looks near safe.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

The "Gold" standard has spoken!

David Perdue really should've avoided Young Kim /s

[Epaminondas]

I'll take it. Another bite at the apple in 2 years for Loeffler, while Ossoff may well be safe in 2026 given Georgia trends.

[Xing]

Even though this particular poll might be pretty close to the actual results, we can't ignore that Trafalgar has put out plenty of bad polls and has questionable methods at best.

[KaiserDave]

They're just putting this out so they can put out a Perdue+6, Loeffler+8 poll the day before Runoff Day and claim they have momentum.

Oh look, 14 people make fools of themselves. You notice how you only get hostile 'Trashfalgar' posts when it's them and not when it's any other pollster who is finding almost the same exact results? Maybe they're not a fake and fraudulent Republican hack polling firm, and maybe people have an irrational hatred of them just because they're R affiliated.

Oh look, ElectionsGuy is posting another silly generalization to justify his bad predictions and dunk on the libs. Clap clap clap clap.

And yes, Trafalgar does have a long history of very bad polls. Partisan pollsters are almost always terrible, and Trafalgar is just another one of them.

Maybe take a look at my predictions before calling them bad? If I had bad predictions, I don't even know what you'd call most others. Or once again, you're disingenuously defining a prediction as 'bad' if it calls the winner wrong and just disregards margins for the sake of attacking me. I have discussed this before, but you continue to do this.

As far as Trafalgar is concerned, they have some very bad polls of Georgia in the past, so it should be taken lightly. But the fact that they're not significantly more Republican than the average of polls here - when they were way outside the average (and more accurate in most cases) than other polls in November - should actually be quite notable, and a partisan Republican pollster doesn't exactly have an incentive to publish a poll with Democrats leading at all. My broader point is that only Trafalgar gets this kind of treatment, is any of the mainstream media polls going to get the same kind of treatment from now on, despite being less accurate? Or is Nate Silver's pollster scorecard more important in how we treat certain pollsters?

I did look at them that's why I called them bad. Bad compared to others? Perhaps not, but it was very apparent to me and many others that Trump wasn't going to win.

Since when do I give a pass to other bad pollsters? As far as I'm concerned I'm never lending any credence at all to a PPP or Quinnipiac poll ever again. Or many others for that matter.

[wbrocks67]

Not like this is unrealistic, but there polls have been all over the place this cycle

[Gass3268]

Georgia has traditionally been one of Trafalgar's worst states. They could have made corrections since November, but we'll have to see.

[YE]

They're just putting this out so they can put out a Perdue+6, Loeffler+8 poll the day before Runoff Day and claim they have momentum.

Oh look, 14 people make fools of themselves. You notice how you only get hostile 'Trashfalgar' posts when it's them and not when it's any other pollster who is finding almost the same exact results? Maybe they're not a fake and fraudulent Republican hack polling firm, and maybe people have an irrational hatred of them just because they're R affiliated.

I mean his overall point still holds true and it’s also possible Trafalgar (which many people even outside the forum have questioned their methods) isn’t scientific poll and whose success is more of a coincidence than anything else. And considering you seem to have a similar hatred and type aggressive posts attacking PPP (who tbf’s glory days just like most pollsters are far behind them)...

What overall point? The claim didn't come close to bearing out, showing that people here have falsely projected ill intentions on the pollster. And after three election cycles of being more accurate than many previously thought of gold standard polls, it should incredibly dubious to continue to say that just keep getting lucky and don't have a proper method (even though I would like to see more details in their polls myself). With PPP, It's clear as day they are not only a bad pollster accuracy wise (even though prior to 2020 it was claimed their methodology was fantastic despite them being partisan), but they also engaged in partisan antics of dumb questions designed to make Republicans look stupid (which succeeded) and omission of certain questions that could hurt Democrats or the media narrative. It is not professional behavior that a serious pollster does.  Trafalgar does not engage in similar antics in their polling, not counting whatever opinions Cahaly says on social media, etc.

That this poll is an improvement for both Republican candidates compared to the last poll granted so in theory at least one could argue that this pollster are herding. As for PPP, it did really well in 2012, and for a while was living off its success that year. Pre-2020 I would have dismissed that PPP in general including pollsters care much about media narrative (because Democrats aren't as obsessed with media narratives as Republicans generally) but they were so bad that at this point I think it's an open question. As for Trafalgar, they openly operate under the assumption that polls are skewed against Republicans, which isn't exactly scientific and prior to Trump, a downright incorrect assumption.

[Alben Barkley]

They turn on their dumb “social desirability bias” factor whenever a black man is a candidate, so Loeffler being ahead by 1 is meaningless here.

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

They turn on their dumb “social desirability bias” factor whenever a black man is a candidate, so Loeffler being ahead by 1 is meaningless here.

Aaaaand Warnock overperformed Ossoff... yeah.

[wbrocks67]

Their Ossoff/Perdue margin looks to be bang on.

[Person Man]

They either get it right or are off by the MoE

[Bootes Void]

ill just say that Trafalgar never overestimate democrats, at least so far