English mega-local elections, 2021

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Amusingly not only do we have no clue when these will actually happen but nobody, literally nobody, has a clue what will actually happen when they do. The two big issues being a) the impact of the pandemic and governmental response to it and b) the pretty radical change - once again - in the Labour Party's general image and direction.

Can we project forwards from the last time these seats were contested? Probably not - but this could barely be done even during the 2016-19 period as things were so volatile. Can we project from the last General Election? Only if you're actually high on glue. Do we have any information that might give us some indication of what to look out for? Not really. We don't even have local by-elections to track, and those can be valuable if you know what you're looking for. Though I will say that there is no rational reason to be at all bullish about Conservative prospects.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Though as far as Street goes: because he's done well at lobbying Westminster over a couple of issues - particularly transport stuff - there's a perception down there of his strength, status, name recognition and general popularity that is perhaps less than entirely realistic.* In the actual existing West Midlands he's mostly that rent-a-quote politician who seems to positively stalk camera crews from Midlands Today and generally has little to say for himself, but is very keen on saying it anyway. Not a weak incumbent as such, but not the widely-presumed electoral dynamo either.

_{*Not exactly the first provincial local government figure that this has been true of!}

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Depending on ‘where we’re at’ with COVID whenever these elections go ahead, I’d imagine that turnout could be abysmal.

Yes, a lot of the usual tricks used to get people to the polls in local elections might not be exactly viable...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Please note that the small tankie cult calling itself the CPGB is not the same organisation as the CPGB, the legal successor to which is the pressure group 'Unlock Democracy', the present head of which is former LibDem MP Tom Brake.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

That was during the period when Wandsworth really was a popular council and when the administration really did win a lot of crossover support from very unlikely people: Roehampton is pretty much the definition of a long-term reliable Labour ward in London in terms of its composition and general profile, and yet somehow during those years...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It really can't be emphasised enough that Bailey is just a shockingly poor candidate.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I would be careful about comparing percentages, though this would certainly be an indication of a 'difficult'... well it isn't a night but a few days.

Fundamentally, of course, the Labour Party remains a rather unpopular institution, its image and general brand in the gutter.* People might not mind Starmer particularly (his approvals vary, but are usually in the 'meh' range), but the party is a different matter. If it wants to be anything other than a moribund picture of self-pity living off rapidly distancing former glories, it needs to change and to be seen to have changed, to look outwards and not in. This isn't a matter of Left or Right but something more important.

_{*This isn't a factional point - not that I'm even a member these days - the roots go back beyond the 2015-20 period.}

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Reminder that we’re only seeing results from one part of the country which has its own unique culture and circumstances (as does every other part of the country.

And a high proportion of results have come from a) a local authority with an administration that is... well to call it scandal plagued would be to greatly understate matters and b) part of another where a party that doesn't usually win the Westminster seat did so very recently; this quite often produces a local election afterglow of a sort that can be deceptive longer term.

Let’s hold our horses until we get the full results before we start reading the obituary of Starmer/the Labour Party.

That would be a huge error regardless, yes. This parliament alone has quite a few years to run and there will be politics beyond it. Labour has time to change how it is viewed (the pandemic robbed it of any potential chance to even start at that), and the reputations of other parties and other political actors are hardly set in stone.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Do we have any quantitative data on turnout? That's usually the first thing known; after all you can get it from the voter rolls they cross out when you come to vote.

About normal for local elections, as far as I can tell. Turnouts in the 40s in some wards, down into the low 20s in others, but usually somewhere in between. My guess is that the general pattern probably skews more elderly than normal (and normal for local elections is more elderly than the general electorate) because of presumed increases in postal voting (which older people are more likely to default to) and because vaccinated people will have been more comfortable in person.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

A lot of the bad results from overnight are from suburban areas.

Including nearly all of the area covered by Dudley council, as it happens.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Labour lose 11/14 seats in Dudley. Some horrifying results for them in the West Midlands.

Still, that's better than the GE when there's no way that they'll have won so much as a single ward there.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

This is the one reason why it was relatively stupid to hold the Hartlepool by election at the same time; without the results yesterday would have been seen as rather poor, rather than apocalyptic (which is the current mood in the party)

Yes - what you have are poor local election results that reflect (it's an unusual thing to happen, but these are unusual circumstances to have elections) much greater enthusiasm amongst government supporters than opposition ones (and so within that dreary landscape, some highlights), rather than a meteorite that destroys all life on Earth.

I think the assumption must have been that if it were held on the same day then it would be counted at the same time and so subsumed into any wider narrative, but it was one of the few things counted overnight...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

'Durham County Council' rather than 'County Durham' as only a surprisingly small proportion of the latter is in the former (at least in terms of population, if not area). I'm not snapping here, I'm sure it really is confusing

The pattern of gains and losses was a bit more complex than the headline figures suggest: Labour shed a few seats here and few seats there to everyone (though managed at least one gain), but the Conservatives gained quite a number of seats from independents. The independents do not form a single group, but a number of different ones: there are also minor parties (including the North East Party who have councillors in Peterlee) who are wrongly included in media totals as independents.

Anyway, this will be the first time since the 1920s that the local government body calling itself 'Durham County Council' (there have been several, all with different boundaries)* has not had a Labour majority if we ignore the period in 2008 when a bunch of councillors were suspended and the majority disappeared as it was tiny - there will be people saying 'since 1919' but actually that majority was lost almost as soon as it was gained. Not a surprise given the wider context of the elections as the majority wasn't big going into the elections and as it's common for there to be local election bounces where seats flip after a long hold.

*The pre-1974 council (the famous one) included everything between the Tyne and the Tees except for the major towns which were county boroughs (Durham City - that is the city proper which was quite small in area - included) and the 1974 council had the same boundaries as the current Police Commissioner area.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

When will BBC compute the national equivalent vote share ?

They have done, and it works out at a Tory lead of about 6 points over Labour (maybe not as high as some might have expected given the seat changes in at least some areas)

There's also an element of the narrative causing some confusion here as well. It isn't that Labour have been hit by a massive wave, but that they've either fallen back a bit further or not made progress on previous locals that were not very good. A lot of the results where Labour performed notably poorly in 2019 are clearly a lot better (for what good comparing low turnout locals to a GE will do!), just not better to the extent that Labour would like.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

That's not absolutely awful for Labour. Though the Lib Dem vote will definitely not be as high; I'm not sure how it will translate.

The Con/Lab votes are always lower in PNS than would be the case in a GE, the LibDem vote higher (these days, when most big LibDem groups are your local NIMBY Alliance and voting for them means nothing for GE intentions, much higher).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Inclusive of Oxford, even. It used to be that 'West of England Cloth' (which is sort of like a worsted tweed blanket, but made into clothing) was as likely to be made in Oxfordshire as points westwards.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

What is it with Lib Dems become a 'rich people's party' in London?

They - and their predecessor parties - have had the ability to do well with People Of Money since more or less the 1960s. It just hasn't always been constant - there's ebb and flow, as is the nature of such things.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Very striking geographical pattern with the Tories doing well in Rother Valley constituency almost regardless of demographics, except that just as in the UK-wide picture Labour did better in Wales.

One of several cases where there was a definite specific bounce in a recently gained constituency.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Question about Sunderland: why has Labour's vote held up relatively well in the non-sunderland parts of the eponymous district like Washington, but collapsed in the city proper?

A lot of the scandals have revolved around events in and councillors from the city proper. But it is also a bit of a theme in Co. Durham that Labour have held up better outside the main towns and cities this set of elections.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

You don't have to make the same post endlessly, you know.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I think sometimes people forget that there have always been areas with good Labour votes* in the Home Counties as there have always been areas in that broad region where it does not always feel as if all is well and the sun is forever shining. Most of England is very much a patchwork, sociologically speaking, with mixtures of affluence, poverty and the huge area in between. The exact balance of that patchwork differs from place to place, that's all. And over time the general tendency is for everywhere in England to resemble increasingly everywhere else in England. Labour is in general far too inclined to think in terms of region in any case, a fundamental (and increasingly damaging) error that is linked to its tendency - and the tendency of its affiliates - to be organised along regional lines.

_{*And, historically in particular, strong local government presences!}

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Durham: Lab majority => Tory/Lib Dem/Green/Ind (lol)

This is even more ridiculous than it looks at first because there are multiple independent groups. And because all of the groups in question (except for the Tories, and even then not entirely) largely exist in order to complain that their particular patch is ignored and does not get the attention and £££ that it rightfully deserves etc.

In other words if local government were still powerful then there would be reasons to be very concerned about what might be about to happen. As it is it will still presumably be a messy embarrassment. Might be funny watching them try to pass a budget though.