English mega-local elections, 2021

[mileslunn]

Asides from London, doesn't seem to be any other big ones and it seems Sadiq Khan is reasonably popular so should win London easily.  With way things have shifted never mind fact most Tories in London voted remain, can the Tories in near future really win there?  Off course nationally hasn't hurt them as Tories now able to win in many northern areas previously off limits.  Good chance they flip Hartlepool in the by-election.

[mileslunn]

Looks like a good night for Tories and bad for Labour, but wondering how big a role UK's fast vaccine rollout and steep decline in COVID cases is playing in this.  Many want to return to normal and with that looking likely soon, I would think that should help the Tories.  Labour has a lot of work to do before they return to office, but next election is 3 years away and lots can happen between now and then.  Nonetheless it appears Labour's troubles in Red wall areas are getting worse not better so they are going to need to find a way to reverse that never mind long term may need to follow path Democrats in US did which is start winning in posh suburban seats but that might be tough.  British Tories are nowhere nearly as reactionary or right wing as GOP thus more acceptable to posh suburban types while Labour is much more ideological left wing than Democrats are thus tougher sell in posh areas.

[mileslunn]

Labour lose 11/14 seats in Dudley. Some horrifying results for them in the West Midlands.

Pretty much all the places Labour is losing in are places they lost in last general election so more re-enforces what happened in 2019 was no fluke but part of a larger trend.  I think Labour long term needs to figure out a way to do better in the suburban areas to offset this, but admittedly won't be easy.  Also party has a really bad brand image and that is going to be tough to rehabilitate.  While on opposite ends of spectrum, UK Labour and Canadian Tories have a lot in common as both perpetual losers, cannot figure out what they stand for, and keep on drifting further and further away from mainstream voters.

[mileslunn]

While probably won't happen before 2024, anybody see a similar re-alignment in UK to US?  I am thinking Red Wall shifts permanently to Tories, but Labour is able to gain many shires, home counties in South long term in exchange so rather than divide by class, divide is more by education as is case in US.