English mega-local elections, 2021

[Geoffrey Howe]

Whereto has been added a by election in Hartlepool. Lord Mandelson’s old seat, 70% Leave, Labour won here in 2019 largely because of an exceptionally strong Brexit Party vote.

With the vaccination programme going well and the Tories popular, they should certainly be hoping for this. It’ll also be a major test for Sir Keir.

[Geoffrey Howe]

We have a separate thread for that, sir

If you're referring to me, I saw that a little after posting...
Anyway, it's on the same day.

[Geoffrey Howe]

It now looks like Sadiq Khan will do very well in the London Mayoral election. Do you think his coattails will flip some GLA constituencies?

I'm thinking particularly of South West (Hounslow, Kingston, Richmond) and West Central (Westminster, Kensington, Hammersmith).

Havering and Redbridge less likely I think because of the strong UKIP vote last time.

I'll respond without making any solid projections, as that might be unwise:

South West is an odd one - it might be expected to vote Lib Dem but there is no real Lib Dem support in Hounslow, so Labour could definitely give the appearance of playing spoiler in the Assembly constituency. In the mayoral race I suspect it stays Tory - not sure Sadiq Khan could emulate Ken Livingstone there.

West Central probably voted Labour at the last two GEs given the strength of the Labour vote in Hammersmith/weakening of the Tory vote elsewhere, so a gain in the Assembly is entirely possible. I'd say it's the likeliest one on paper, but not certain.

Most of the UKIP vote in Havering and Redbridge will have come from the Tories in Havering (which includes Rainham) - maybe there is some data to that end. The Labour bits are very Remainy (Ilford, Wanstead etc.), so I imagine the location of the UKIP vote means they'll break enough in the Tories direction even with Khan's victory.

Croydon and Sutton which you didn't mention may have been close at the last general election but the Tories are strong enough there and I don't think enough Sutton Lib Dems would vote Khan/Labour to flip the seat at either level.

The other assembly constituencies are all safe for their respective parties and they won't flip.

Why did Ken Livingstone do so well in Richmond in 2004? It voted very heavily for Goldsmith (though he was from there) and Boris. There has been much less coverage of the race this time; I'm not sure how that'll affect the race. West & Central is very Tory at the London level - not so much at the national, even in 2015 IIRC. I'm wondering whether Tony Devenish will win here - do you know much about him? I'm not sure whether to support him.

[Geoffrey Howe]

It now looks like Sadiq Khan will do very well in the London Mayoral election. Do you think his coattails will flip some GLA constituencies?

I'm thinking particularly of South West (Hounslow, Kingston, Richmond) and West Central (Westminster, Kensington, Hammersmith).

Havering and Redbridge less likely I think because of the strong UKIP vote last time.

I'll respond without making any solid projections, as that might be unwise:

South West is an odd one - it might be expected to vote Lib Dem but there is no real Lib Dem support in Hounslow, so Labour could definitely give the appearance of playing spoiler in the Assembly constituency. In the mayoral race I suspect it stays Tory - not sure Sadiq Khan could emulate Ken Livingstone there.

West Central probably voted Labour at the last two GEs given the strength of the Labour vote in Hammersmith/weakening of the Tory vote elsewhere, so a gain in the Assembly is entirely possible. I'd say it's the likeliest one on paper, but not certain.

Most of the UKIP vote in Havering and Redbridge will have come from the Tories in Havering (which includes Rainham) - maybe there is some data to that end. The Labour bits are very Remainy (Ilford, Wanstead etc.), so I imagine the location of the UKIP vote means they'll break enough in the Tories direction even with Khan's victory.

Croydon and Sutton which you didn't mention may have been close at the last general election but the Tories are strong enough there and I don't think enough Sutton Lib Dems would vote Khan/Labour to flip the seat at either level.

The other assembly constituencies are all safe for their respective parties and they won't flip.

Yes, West Central voted Labour in the last two elections (2019 I calculated ~ 92,000 LAB to ~ 82,000 CON) (2015 ~ 100,000 CON to ~ 80,000. LAB)

[Geoffrey Howe]

West & Central is very Tory at the London level - not so much at the national, even in 2015 IIRC. I'm wondering whether Tony Devenish will win here - do you know much about him? I'm not sure whether to support him.

Yeah - lots of areas are more Tory at local level - Wandsworth likes their low council tax, though not as much as the seat results would suggest. I don't know enough about Devenish, I looked to see his stance on transport and he doesn't seem to have one bar opposing Sadiq Khan's policy - just typing @Tony_Devenish into Twitter with the issue of your choice will tell you what you need to know. Of course, when you're a London Assembly member, particularly from the non-mayoral party you can be pro or anti pretty much anything within reason.

Although it’s no longer the case, from 1997-2005 Putney had the distinction of being the only Labour-held Westminster seat which had no Labour councillors representing it at the local level.

And of course Putney was the only Labour gain in 2019. Funny electorate...though I guess it might have flipped in 2017 if it weren't for Justine Greening.

[Geoffrey Howe]

Why is Sadiq so far ahead in the opinion polls for mayor? He hasn’t been a particularly good mayor in my opinion, but objectively he hasn’t done all that much. Now he has done some stuff which upsets outer London voters - for example the ULEZ expansion*. So I’m not sure why he is so far ahead in the polls. Ken Livingstone never got over 57% of the vote yet some polls have Khan >60%. Clearly Shaun Bailey isn’t a gifted campaigner, but Khan is doing very well in the first preferences.

All I can think of is that the Tories have become significantly more unpopular in London thanks to Brexit. But then Zac Goldsmith wasn’t crushed (and did very well in places like Richmond) but he was campaigning for Brexit and had a lot of issues around Islamophobia.

*Although that was sort of Mr Shapps trying to make Khan unpopular...

The extension hasn't come in yet, it's not a lot of money & it's not a really huge issue among Labours coalition; out of my school friends in London only 1 of us has a car.

There's the predictable effort by the Tories to call it an 'outer London tax' but I actually think TFL & London being broke actually makes it a weaker attack.  Air pollution is also an issue that polls higher than you'd expect & the fact we've had a congestion charge has meant its a bit pre baked in.

But yes Brexit (and the cultural implications of this) is a major driver- along with the fact that the Conservatives Electoral Strategy has abandoned even trying to win the old Lab-Tory marginals- since they're not trying to win those London seats lost in 2015 it has a general drag down.

Sadiq is also to his credit a very effective (and under-estimated) campaigner; mayoral elections are already relatively low turnout & people don't know about the powers or role of the Mayor so they want someone who is a figurehead for their values.

True that hasn't come in yet; if it had I should imagine Sadiq would be more unpopular. Incompetence on the part of Mr Shapps.

Well the way ULEZ is expanding and where car ownership is higher means it is effectively an outer London tax. No it doesn't much affect the Labour coalition but you would think it would fire up the Tory coalition. I haven't seen many people calling for balancing the budget coming out of COVID so I'm not sure the 'we're broke' line works too well. The congestion charge is now £15 daily, for most of the day. It was designed to reduce traffic I believe, not to gain revenue. ULEZ will cost £12.50 per day simply to drive around for most cars within Finchley, Acton, Barking and Dulwich.

Certainly Brexit has an impact. I know quite a lot of people who would have been open to voting, or perhaps did often vote, Tory who are quite put off now.

Sadiq is a good campaigner, and a good speaker at town-hall style meetings in quite a similar way to Obama; though not as good as him.

[Geoffrey Howe]

London is also objectively broke if you're enough of an anorak to follow this stuff closely- Hammersmith Bridge is closed to all traffic, the Bakerloo line extension has been put on ice & cross rail 2 has been cancelled.

I believe the Tories want to do all three of these things, while not expecting any new Government money nor expecting a rise in the rather limited tax rising powers of the Mayor,.

Well I suspect Mr Bailey would be much better at getting money for London from a Tory central government.

[Geoffrey Howe]

London is also objectively broke if you're enough of an anorak to follow this stuff closely- Hammersmith Bridge is closed to all traffic, the Bakerloo line extension has been put on ice & cross rail 2 has been cancelled.

I believe the Tories want to do all three of these things, while not expecting any new Government money nor expecting a rise in the rather limited tax rising powers of the Mayor,.

Well I suspect Mr Bailey would be much better at getting money for London from a Tory central government.

Quite possibly, but that says more about the way the government operates rather than anything to do with Shaun Bailey.

It does, particularly with this government; but generally it is not helpful to have a mayor from a different party from central government.

[Geoffrey Howe]

Asides from London, doesn't seem to be any other big ones and it seems Sadiq Khan is reasonably popular so should win London easily.  With way things have shifted never mind fact most Tories in London voted remain, can the Tories in near future really win there?  Off course nationally hasn't hurt them as Tories now able to win in many northern areas previously off limits.  Good chance they flip Hartlepool in the by-election.

I think it would be an uphill battle. Boris only won in 2008 by 53-47 when he was personally very popular and the Labour government (and mayor) were unpopular. He did hold it in 2012 when the Tories were less popular; although the Tories did very well in 2015 by London standards.

[Geoffrey Howe]

Here's the thing.  Most Tories don't really care about winning London.  In order to win London we would have to abandon our growing working class coalition.  And for what?  The mayoralty?  What's the point?  Add to that the fact that Bailey is an abysmal candidate and it's no surprise that Camp Bailey has seen donations and supporters dry up.

The fact that Bailey is running for re-election simultaneously to the Assembly shows that he knows that he will lose.

Honestly if I had the misfortune to live in the capital I would vote for wacko Fox just for the lulz.  I'd rather be winning Dudley council etc than London mayor.

I think (and it seems that so do many other Tories) that we should effectively abandon London and use it only as a scapegoat and boogeyman.  Cynical politics I know.

Umm when the Tories have been going on about a ‘strong economy’ esp. in order to fund the NHS, that wouldn’t be wise move given the money that comes out of London. And surely they want to keep all the financial services in the UK?

[Geoffrey Howe]

Here's Shaun Bailey's advert (a strange mishmash). I can't find Sadiq Khan's.

[Geoffrey Howe]

Clement weather, fairly empty polling station at 0845 this morning. That said, I've never seen my polling station busy.

[Geoffrey Howe]

[Geoffrey Howe]

Voted myself at lunchtime - only the PCC election still on after the County Council vote got postponed.

Pretty dead at the polling station as a result, as you might expect.

And all of three parties to choose from!

(Lab 1st LibDem 2nd - surprisingly its the Tories who "unluckily" miss out)

Is this Cumbria PCC?

[Geoffrey Howe]

Clement weather, fairly empty polling station at 0845 this morning. That said, I've never seen my polling station busy.

Just went on a walk at 1600 past some polling stations. The weather is very nice after some drizzle earlier and there were quite a few people out and about. My polling station which was empty this morning seemed to have people queueing inside. The other one I went past seemed to have a fairly steady stream of people entering; not busy, but not quiet either. My part of the world gets fairly average turnout, so, maybe, turnout across the board will be decent. This is more speculative than anything though.

[Geoffrey Howe]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-56930132

[Geoffrey Howe]

Just got back from the office.  Off to vote later this evening probably.

Only elections on my ballot will be West of England mayor and Avon & Somerset PCC.

Obviously I will back the Tories on first preferences.

Who shall I second preference?

Isn't the point of supplementary voting to do it the other way around?

[Geoffrey Howe]

Just got back from the office.  Off to vote later this evening probably.

Only elections on my ballot will be West of England mayor and Avon & Somerset PCC.

Obviously I will back the Tories on first preferences.

Who shall I second preference?

I mean if you are confident that the Tories will make it to round two in both contests, and the Tories are your first preference, then there is no theoretical need for a second vote. But I understand the sentiment.

Sure - it will probably be redundant.  But it is obviously symbolic.

In the PCC election I will 2nd pref Independent John Smith.  He may actually end up winning.  The current PCC is an independent and he is her hand picked successor.

Still undecided on my 2nd pref for metro mayor.  I might do the unthinkable and back That Still Great Movement of Yours simply because I loathe the LolDems and Greens so much.

Who's expected to win West of England? If I were you and planning to vote Tory I wouldn't do a second preference for that race.

[Geoffrey Howe]

I hear from a Green activist in London that turnout has been 'pretty good as expected'.

[Geoffrey Howe]

The polls have now closed.

One or two people trickling in and out at my polling station around 2145.

[Geoffrey Howe]

What is the bbc link to results as they come in. I cannot seem to find it

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-56930132

[Geoffrey Howe]

Do we have any quantitative data on turnout? That's usually the first thing known; after all you can get it from the voter rolls they cross out when you come to vote.

[Geoffrey Howe]

So when can we expect results for the London mayoral race?

Saturday I think.

[Geoffrey Howe]

It now looks like Sadiq Khan will do very well in the London Mayoral election. Do you think his coattails will flip some GLA constituencies?

I'm thinking particularly of South West (Hounslow, Kingston, Richmond) and West Central (Westminster, Kensington, Hammersmith).

Havering and Redbridge less likely I think because of the strong UKIP vote last time.

Looks to be close in West Central. Not enough of Havering and Redbridge in to form meaningful conclusions but Tories are confident.

Where do you read this? Uniform swing assumed it was looking marginal, but very crudely based on my interactions the Tory vote was fairly solid in my pro-EU circle.

[Geoffrey Howe]

As of 1330
Khan 38 Bailey 37

Tory areas are counted first though.