English mega-local elections, 2021

[beesley]

https://mobile.twitter.com/LozzaFox/status/1371428500637417474

There's something really funny about the idea of London being chock a block full of statues. Best of all, if people are trying to push the envelope you'd get endless submissions for totally batsh**t reasons ("What do you mean, you're rejecting my statue of Hoxha?!!")

Sadly though, Fox is a hypocrite. He claims he doesn't want an ideological prism for his statue garden, and yet he wants people "we" (read: "he") can respect.

Being the mayoral election, which always attracts a motley crew of candidates, Fox is still somehow only the 5th most ridiculous candidate in the race.

[beesley]

Apparently, the Tories are going to ditch SV in favour of FPTP for the mayoral elections.

That's correct - it was in their manifesto.

The government have also cancelled the Somerset and North Yorkshire County Council Elections too this year because of their random decisions on where should have Unitary Authority status (so they claim).

[beesley]

Apparently, the Tories are going to ditch SV in favour of FPTP for the mayoral elections.

That's correct - it was in their manifesto.

The government have also cancelled the Somerset and North Yorkshire County Council Elections too this year because of their random decisions on where should have Unitary Authority status (so they claim).

Cumbria as well <cough, cough>

Btw the change to FPTP only applies to some mayoral elections at present (and not to the assembly for London either) and no timetable has been given for passing the legislation that will be needed (and I know it was in the 20*17* manifesto, but the last one as well?)

The 2019 manifesto removed the specific commitment to impose FPTP on any particular office's election (other than supporting maintaining it in Westminster elections) but it did commit to supporting FPTP more generally as the Tories have always promised.

[beesley]

https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1374792372991766529?s=20

I haven't watched it myself but the general consensus is that Bailey is making a fool of himself again, such as by referring to Sadiq Khan as the 'police chief'. Bailey also claimed he started the biggest youth project the world has ever seen. Sadiq Khan seems to have some good lines, though he was clearly wrong on my pet issue of transport. I wouldn't vote for either of them.

[beesley]

I had the pleasure of contributing to the compiling of this spreadsheet featuring all the parties standing at the English local elections. I was unfortunate enough to have to fill out the sheet for Buckinghamshire (a 147 seat council is too large!). Some interesting smaller parties standing across many councils.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1MxxoY0HCLwzUELvV9N8xJiGBcVguI9aNsys9xPksUvs/edit#gid=1689118743

[beesley]

For the most part though the two main parties seem to have done a fair job of standing a candidate in nearly every ward.

Yeah. I was actually most impressed with the number of Green candidates, fielding full slates in several councils including my own. In some Tory held councils down my ends they're fielding more candidates than Labour or the Liberal Democrats. In my own council the TUSC are also fielding candidates in many wards.

[beesley]

https://twitter.com/BrexitBuster/status/1381958718011543557?s=20

Now this is gold.

[beesley]

For the most part though the two main parties seem to have done a fair job of standing a candidate in nearly every ward.

Yeah. I was actually most impressed with the number of Green candidates, fielding full slates in several councils including my own. In some Tory held councils down my ends they're fielding more candidates than Labour or the Liberal Democrats. In my own council the TUSC are also fielding candidates in many wards.

Small error. The CPGB is not standing candidates. The CPB is.

I thought I had responded to this, but the CPB appeared to be standing candidates under the CPGB banner.

[beesley]

Here are the candidate lists for the London mayoral and assembly elections (not SOPNs):

Mayor of London: https://www.londonelects.org.uk/im-voter/candidates/mayoral-candidates
London Assembly - Constituency: https://www.londonelects.org.uk/im-voter/candidates/london-assembly-candidates-constituency
London Assembly - 11 London-Wide List Seats: https://www.londonelects.org.uk/im-voter/candidates/london-assembly-candidates-london-wide

Bizarrely the TUSC List has 25 candidates for list 11 seats (they won't get one). The leader of Reform UK Richard Tice, is his party's candidate in Havering and Redbridge. All in all though, there seems to be an equal split between major political parties, vaguely credible small parties and independents and complete jokes.

[beesley]

It now looks like Sadiq Khan will do very well in the London Mayoral election. Do you think his coattails will flip some GLA constituencies?

I'm thinking particularly of South West (Hounslow, Kingston, Richmond) and West Central (Westminster, Kensington, Hammersmith).

Havering and Redbridge less likely I think because of the strong UKIP vote last time.

I'll respond without making any solid projections, as that might be unwise:

South West is an odd one - it might be expected to vote Lib Dem but there is no real Lib Dem support in Hounslow, so Labour could definitely give the appearance of playing spoiler in the Assembly constituency. In the mayoral race I suspect it stays Tory - not sure Sadiq Khan could emulate Ken Livingstone there.

West Central probably voted Labour at the last two GEs given the strength of the Labour vote in Hammersmith/weakening of the Tory vote elsewhere, so a gain in the Assembly is entirely possible. I'd say it's the likeliest one on paper, but not certain.

Most of the UKIP vote in Havering and Redbridge will have come from the Tories in Havering (which includes Rainham) - maybe there is some data to that end. The Labour bits are very Remainy (Ilford, Wanstead etc.), so I imagine the location of the UKIP vote means they'll break enough in the Tories direction even with Khan's victory.

Croydon and Sutton which you didn't mention may have been close at the last general election but the Tories are strong enough there and I don't think enough Sutton Lib Dems would vote Khan/Labour to flip the seat at either level.

The other assembly constituencies are all safe for their respective parties and they won't flip.

[beesley]

West & Central is very Tory at the London level - not so much at the national, even in 2015 IIRC. I'm wondering whether Tony Devenish will win here - do you know much about him? I'm not sure whether to support him.

Yeah - lots of areas are more Tory at local level - Wandsworth likes their low council tax, though not as much as the seat results would suggest. I don't know enough about Devenish, I looked to see his stance on transport and he doesn't seem to have one bar opposing Sadiq Khan's policy - just typing @Tony_Devenish into Twitter with the issue of your choice will tell you what you need to know. Of course, when you're a London Assembly member, particularly from the non-mayoral party you can be pro or anti pretty much anything within reason.

[beesley]

Labour actually polled more votes, in fact, just not in the wards they needed to.

Yes. Though it was still an underperformance which I am fairly confident they will largely catch up.

[beesley]

London is also objectively broke if you're enough of an anorak to follow this stuff closely- Hammersmith Bridge is closed to all traffic, the Bakerloo line extension has been put on ice & cross rail 2 has been cancelled.

I believe the Tories want to do all three of these things, while not expecting any new Government money nor expecting a rise in the rather limited tax rising powers of the Mayor,.

Well I suspect Mr Bailey would be much better at getting money for London from a Tory central government.

Quite possibly, but that says more about the way the government operates rather than anything to do with Shaun Bailey.

[beesley]

Do you get just a first and a second preference, rather than a full RCV vote? That seems barely better than FPTP...

Yes, it's known as supplementary vote here. The top two candidates progress to an instant runoff and any second preferences are added. The government has pledged to scrap the system and replace it with FPTP.

[beesley]

What is the bbc link to results as they come in. I cannot seem to find it

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-56930132

Also full results for English councils here: https://t.co/laSaIRWUOf?amp=1

[beesley]

So when can we expect results for the London mayoral race?

They've begun counting but no final results for the Mayor or the Assembly until tomorrow evening.

[beesley]

The Conservatives have lost their majority in Cambridgeshire - the Lib Dems have made plenty of gains in the heavily remain-voting Cambridge commuter villages in South Cambridgeshire as well as in Ely. Labour gained a couple of seats off the Lib Dems in Cambridge itself, and a couple of consolation gains for the Tories from the Lib Dems in Huntingdonshire.

2017 result: Con 36, LD 15, Lab 7, St Neots Independent 2, Independent 1
New council: Con 28, LD 20, Lab 9, St Neots Independent 2, Independent 2

South Cambridgeshire where the Lib Dems made most of their gains was already a Lib Dem council at district level and was over 60% Remain in the referendum. Most of the area faces Cambridge.

[beesley]

It now looks like Sadiq Khan will do very well in the London Mayoral election. Do you think his coattails will flip some GLA constituencies?

I'm thinking particularly of South West (Hounslow, Kingston, Richmond) and West Central (Westminster, Kensington, Hammersmith).

Havering and Redbridge less likely I think because of the strong UKIP vote last time.

Looks to be close in West Central. Not enough of Havering and Redbridge in to form meaningful conclusions but Tories are confident.

[beesley]

Ben Houchen (Con) has won the Tees Valley Mayoral Race with 73% of the vote.

[beesley]

Labour held the Liverpool Mayoralty (the city itself, not the regional metro mayor).

[beesley]

It now looks like Sadiq Khan will do very well in the London Mayoral election. Do you think his coattails will flip some GLA constituencies?

I'm thinking particularly of South West (Hounslow, Kingston, Richmond) and West Central (Westminster, Kensington, Hammersmith).

Havering and Redbridge less likely I think because of the strong UKIP vote last time.

Looks to be close in West Central. Not enough of Havering and Redbridge in to form meaningful conclusions but Tories are confident.

Where do you read this? Uniform swing assumed it was looking marginal, but very crudely based on my interactions the Tory vote was fairly solid in my pro-EU circle.

Conservatives were only ahead by a couple of percentage points with most of Hammersmith and Fulham yet to count.

[beesley]

It now looks like Sadiq Khan will do very well in the London Mayoral election. Do you think his coattails will flip some GLA constituencies?

I'm thinking particularly of South West (Hounslow, Kingston, Richmond) and West Central (Westminster, Kensington, Hammersmith).

Havering and Redbridge less likely I think because of the strong UKIP vote last time.

Looks to be close in West Central. Not enough of Havering and Redbridge in to form meaningful conclusions but Tories are confident.

Where do you read this? Uniform swing assumed it was looking marginal, but very crudely based on my interactions the Tory vote was fairly solid in my pro-EU circle.

Conservatives were only ahead by a couple of percentage points with most of Hammersmith and Fulham yet to count.

Where do you get this information? Is it only H&F left?

Off the London Elects website + local sources and people in another place.

[beesley]

'Tory sources' say they believe they can now win the London mayoralty. That would be odd.

That certainly a case of them putting the cart before the horse. Northing suggests the Conservatives are gaining in Remain/Globalized areas, in fact their falling back in some like Cambridge. Jaichind's chart basically has the full story.

Yes. Low turnout probably favours the Tories, but I think it'll mean a good Khan victory rather than a landslide.

Tories hold West Central by a couple of percentage points.

[beesley]

'Tory sources' say they believe they can now win the London mayoralty. That would be odd.

That certainly a case of them putting the cart before the horse. Northing suggests the Conservatives are gaining in Remain/Globalized areas, in fact their falling back in some like Cambridge. Jaichind's chart basically has the full story.

Yes. Low turnout probably favours the Tories, but I think it'll mean a good Khan victory rather than a landslide.

Tories hold West Central by a couple of percentage points.

Yep I can see on London Elects, but no numbers there. Do you have the margin?

2205 (53713 to 51508).

Wow that's close. I know some people in West Central who abdicated responsibility by voting Lib Dem...
Do you have the percentages? (I can't find on London Elects or BBC)

Correction it was 2225, not 2205.

Con - 38.8%
Lab - 37.3%
Green - 11.5%
LD - 9.4%

All others below 5%.

[beesley]

Big Tory gains in Cornwall, largely at the expense of the Lib Dems.

Cornwall elections are normally delightfully idiosyncratic but they seem to have finally succumbed to voting tge same way for General and local elections.

Apparently this result was largely expected, but I’m not exactly sure why.

Nice to see Andrew George has an elected job again.  I had begun to feel rather sorry for him.

On the flip side Mike Thornton lost near me in Eastleigh. Former Tory MPs Edwina Currie and Simon Kirby both lost as well.