English mega-local elections, 2021

[Oryxslayer]

Just got back from the office.  Off to vote later this evening probably.

Only elections on my ballot will be West of England mayor and Avon & Somerset PCC.

Obviously I will back the Tories on first preferences.

Who shall I second preference?

I mean if you are confident that the Tories will make it to round two in both contests, and the Tories are your first preference, then there is no theoretical need for a second vote. But I understand the sentiment.

[Oryxslayer]

BBC's not starting their coverage until tomorrow, but Sky says will have the election special coverage starting at midnight for Hartlepool in the am.

BBC English local results page: https://www.bbc.com/news/topics/c481drqqzv7t/england-local-elections-2021

[Oryxslayer]

BBC's not starting their coverage until tomorrow, but Sky says will have the election special coverage starting at midnight for Hartlepool in the am.

BBC English local results page: https://www.bbc.com/news/topics/c481drqqzv7t/england-local-elections-2021

So I should not expect any meaningful results to be released tonight?

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1390404282617323526?s=20

Generally most of the single-area stuff like the Welsh and Scottish constituencies and the councils are tomorrow, no overnight count in most places cause COVID. Multi-area things like the list seats and combined authorities on Saturday. There are press lists online if you search.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1390438316990943233?s=20

Might be a bad portent for Labour in Hartlepool if there's a near 100% transfer of the various Farage-Party voters to the Conservatives going on in the Northeast.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1390444498040274944?s=20

First flip of the night, and several other seats in Northumberland were announced. Similar trend in all - Tories benefiting from turnout and taking all of UKIP percentage.

This and other Northumberland seats announced are in the Blythe Valley Westminster seat.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1390448981772283905?s=20

Remain area council which is more a Lab/Lib-Dem fight for control. A much more muted and normal council result that the Leave-voting areas with large UKIP/Brexit/Leave Indies vote shares.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1390453857852010500?s=20

South Tyneside last time was a 100% Labour council, so that majority is over.

[Oryxslayer]

Reminder that we’re only seeing results from one part of the country which has its own unique culture and circumstances (as does every other part of the country. Let’s hold our horses until we get the full results before we start reading the obituary of Starmer/the Labour Party.

Of course. I noted that we have seen the Conservatives doing well in leave strongholds, but in the marginal Remian Newcastle things are fine for Labour. Its likely to be a mixed picture, but the Remain areas arn't going to be counted until tomorrow at the earliest. We had two narratives (then a third today in the channel) competing for attention: Johnson Sleaze and the Conservative Vaccine Rollout. One issue will matter more to certain groups,  the other to others. I also suspect it won't be Labour uniformly in the south, more likely the Greens and the Lib-Dems given those councils history.  

The results in Sunderland are of course the largest because of scandal, that council could be headed for No Control though it would be difficult given only 1/3 of seats are up, but compared to that its not like there are 30% swings in neighboring Northumberland or Teesside. Local politics matters in local elections, just like in any democracy, but the national numbers form a good baseline to build your bell curve around.

[Oryxslayer]

I am choosing to extrapolate from this local election result and will be ignoring all other data
https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1390452157137227780

Good example of the scandal-driven anti-Labour movement in Sunderland that is making Labour's life even worse there than in the other Brexit-favoring parts of the Northeast. Whoever is the main opposition is benefiting.


In other news, in contrast  to the main trend in the Northeast, Labour are gaining from the opposition Lib-Dems in Newcastle. Leave/Remain divide between Newcastle and the rest of the Northeast.

EDIT: Similar to Newcastle, Colchester is also now reporting in. The urban area is looking good for Labour. Once again, the difference is the city of Colchester is a remain city, even though the Essex outlying areas are Tory and Leave heartlands.

[Oryxslayer]

Conservative's have gained and held enough to win overall control of Nuneaton & Bedworth, last controlled in 2008. Ten flips from Labour to Conservative.

Labour have unsurprisingly held Newcastle. 2 losses to Indies no other changes. Labour generally gained votes in the city at the expense of the Lib-Dems, but their seats were safer.

[Oryxslayer]

Southend-on-Sea in Essex remains at No overall Controll with the Tories as the largest party. Lab gained 1, Tories 3, all from Independents.

Conservatives gain Harlow from Lab. Seven flips from Labour to the Conservatives.

Scandal-tarred Labour against the odds have held Sunderland. Tons of losses to all parties and their majority is near entirely dependent on the two thirds of the council that were not up for reelection.

The 2016 South Tyneside delegation was 100% Only 6/54 councilors before today were not Labour - and 5 were Indies. This has not dramatically changed, 4 Labour losses - 1 to Conservatives, 2 to Greens, 1 to Indies.

Labour hold Rochdale outside Manchester. No changes whatsoever.

Colchester remains in No Overall Control, and the Lab + Lib-Dem + Greens still have 2 more seats than the Conservatives. Some reshuffling under the hood, but the end result is one Green gain and one Lib-Dem loss.  

No net Changes in Gateshead. Cons remain on 0 seats in this part of the northeast.

Conservative hold in Reddich, gaining all 7 of the Labour seats up for election.

Conservative hold in Thurrock , interesting net changes under the hood with some Labour pickups and losses, but the overall results is Six flips from UKIP to Conservatives. UKIP did well her previously so this is similar to the northeast.

[Oryxslayer]

Doncaster mayor R1.

[Oryxslayer]

Stockport remains under No Overall Control. This is more a Lib-Dem/Labour fight, and there is a small amount of reshuffling that has seen the council get its first Green. This time is Lib-Dems in first place.

Labour have held Oldham outside Manchester. There are notable Labour losses here to the Conservatives and Independents unlike in neighboring Rochdale where no net seats changed hands.  
Rochford is a Tory hold. Conservatives make gains at the expense of the regions few Green Councilors and UKIP.

Northumberland has flipped from no control (Conservative Minority) and now has a Conservative Majority. The story here is interesting. Conservatives ended up netting only 1 seat despite picking up six Labour seats in the Blythe Valley region. Labour flipped three Conservative seats to the West of Newcastle, aka where the remain voters are, and two Greens flipped Troy seats in the rural Northwest.

[Oryxslayer]

Labour have not won Liverpool mayor outright, 38.5% of the vote for Labour in round 1. They are going into the runoff with Stephen Yip, and Independent. There are issues with Liverpool Labour as a local party, so this is partially a symptom of that, but Joanne Anderson will likely win in round 2.

[Oryxslayer]

Labour have not won Liverpool mayor outright, 38.5% of the vote for Labour in round 1. They are going into the runoff with Stephen Yip, and Independent. There are issues with Liverpool Labour as a local party, so this is partially a symptom of that, but Joanne Anderson will likely win in round 2.

Is this intentional understatement?

Anyway, Labour lost Sheffield to No Control. Greens and Lib-Dems are the gainers, and the two technically have 1 more seat than Labour. But Labour still likely to lead a minority.

[Oryxslayer]

Ben Houchen (Con) has won the Tees Valley Mayoral Race with 73% of the vote.

[Oryxslayer]

'Tory sources' say they believe they can now win the London mayoralty. That would be odd.

That certainly a case of them putting the cart before the horse. Northing suggests the Conservatives are gaining in Remain/Globalized areas, in fact their falling back in some like Cambridge. Jaichind's chart basically has the full story.

[Oryxslayer]

Conservatives also now have the plurality lead in the Plymouth Council which flipped from Labour to No control.

And here's the flip side to the North: 15 conservative losses in Surrey to Lib Dems, Localists, Greens, and Labour.

[Oryxslayer]

BBC report from Birmingham had Labour up over Street by about 20k on first preferences. That's not enough and it will be canceled out by the Street vote in the suburbs.

[Oryxslayer]

West Midlands:

31.23% turnout

Conservative: 299,318 Votes - 49%
Labour: 244,009 Votes - 40%
Green: 35,559 Votes - 6%
Lib-Dem: 21,836 Votes - 3.5%
Reform: 13,568 Votes - 2.5%

Second preferences should benefit Labour, but Street wins just off the Reform votes. Street increased first preferences by 7% from 2017.

[Oryxslayer]

Labour Gains West of England.

59.5% for Dan Norris on the second vote to 40.5% for Dan Williams.

[Oryxslayer]

BBC showed a fairly large Green surge in Stroud at the expense of the Conservatives. Any input in what's going on there, besides the normal demographic explanations.

[Oryxslayer]

London results, mayoral, expected in one hour, at 8:30 pm.

https://twitter.com/cinyc9/status/1391097725224116226?s=20

He's the results mapped so far (thank you Cinyc). In the end not so different to to that YouGov poll which came out a few days ago, just the slow count masked Khan's lead. I think the swing to Labour in West/Southwest London is interesting given both the Green defections for first place. it "rhymes" so to speak with the 2020 swings in many US cities where the wealthy areas went left and minorities right. Obviously there are many differences though, most notably candidates, so its not a absolute comparison.

[Oryxslayer]

County Durham finally finished their count and the authority falls to No Overall Control, as expected after the past two days. All parties and factions gained seats at the expense of Labour, who remain the largest part by a lot, but the Conservatives were the largest beneficiaries.

[Oryxslayer]

Marvin Rees wins reelection in Bristol.