English mega-local elections, 2021

[warandwar]

It really can't be emphasised enough that Bailey is just a shockingly poor candidate.

Heavy parvenu vibes

[Geoffrey Howe]

Here's Shaun Bailey's advert (a strange mishmash). I can't find Sadiq Khan's.

[Geoffrey Howe]

Clement weather, fairly empty polling station at 0845 this morning. That said, I've never seen my polling station busy.

[Blair]

Some briefing that London will be a relatively safe Labour win rather than the blowout landslide that some predicted

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Some briefing that London will be a relatively safe Labour win rather than the blowout landslide that some predicted

Isn't it so that a huge chunk of the current Conservative vote in London (which is perhaps 40% of the electorate) would be very unlikely to ever vote for a Labour candidate to begin with?

[Gary JG]

I voted about 10:00am in Slough. I was the only voter present. The polling station was very quiet and there did not seem to be any problem with social distancing!

My local government ward was a straight fight between Labour and Conservative. This caused a bit of a dilemma, as I strongly favour Keir Starmer over Boris Johnson in national politics, but the local dynamic is everybody against Labour so I would normally support an anti-Labour candidate. Given current circumstances I voted Labour. There is no realistic prospect of Slough electing a non-Labour administration, until Labour is again in government nationally.

In the Police and Crime Commissioner election, I voted Lib Dem for first preference and Labour second, but I imagine the Conservative candidate will win easily (for the police force covering  Berks, Bucks and Oxon).

All the above is anecdotal, but all voters are forced to filter their views through the prism of the available candidates and the election systems provided. I would prefer a proportional system to first past the post and a full Alternative Vote system to the abomination of the Supplemental Vote for the (largely irrelevant) single position of the Police and Crime Commissioner.

[Blair]

I have found it strange how little of the coverage has said that you’re actually in a minority if you even vote in these elections!

[CumbrianLefty]

Some briefing that London will be a relatively safe Labour win rather than the blowout landslide that some predicted

One factor mentioned which may actually be relevant, rather than merely customary pre-election expectations management, is a lot of younger people/students not actually being resident in London right now due to Covid (though you might hope pollsters made some attempt to account for that)

[Geoffrey Howe]

[CumbrianLefty]

Voted myself at lunchtime - only the PCC election still on after the County Council vote got postponed.

Pretty dead at the polling station as a result, as you might expect.

And all of three parties to choose from!

(Lab 1st LibDem 2nd - surprisingly its the Tories who "unluckily" miss out)

[Geoffrey Howe]

Voted myself at lunchtime - only the PCC election still on after the County Council vote got postponed.

Pretty dead at the polling station as a result, as you might expect.

And all of three parties to choose from!

(Lab 1st LibDem 2nd - surprisingly its the Tories who "unluckily" miss out)

Is this Cumbria PCC?

[Geoffrey Howe]

Clement weather, fairly empty polling station at 0845 this morning. That said, I've never seen my polling station busy.

Just went on a walk at 1600 past some polling stations. The weather is very nice after some drizzle earlier and there were quite a few people out and about. My polling station which was empty this morning seemed to have people queueing inside. The other one I went past seemed to have a fairly steady stream of people entering; not busy, but not quiet either. My part of the world gets fairly average turnout, so, maybe, turnout across the board will be decent. This is more speculative than anything though.

[Geoffrey Howe]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-56930132

[bore]

Some briefing that London will be a relatively safe Labour win rather than the blowout landslide that some predicted

One factor mentioned which may actually be relevant, rather than merely customary pre-election expectations management, is a lot of younger people/students not actually being resident in London right now due to Covid (though you might hope pollsters made some attempt to account for that)

That might be true for graduates but its not the case for students. London has a higher share of the student population than its share of the population as a whole (16% as opposed to 14%) but is a net exporter of students. See here for the relevant figures, in particular:

o 94,800 students domiciled in London remained in the capital, making up 59% of First degree undergraduates;
o 65,900 students came to London from the rest England, mostly from the South East;
o 115,000 students left London to study elsewhere and 45% went to the South East or the East of England.

It makes up for this, obviously, by having a far higher proportion of foreign students.

[Conservatopia]

Just got back from the office.  Off to vote later this evening probably.

Only elections on my ballot will be West of England mayor and Avon & Somerset PCC.

Obviously I will back the Tories on first preferences.

Who shall I second preference?

[Geoffrey Howe]

Just got back from the office.  Off to vote later this evening probably.

Only elections on my ballot will be West of England mayor and Avon & Somerset PCC.

Obviously I will back the Tories on first preferences.

Who shall I second preference?

Isn't the point of supplementary voting to do it the other way around?

[Oryxslayer]

Just got back from the office.  Off to vote later this evening probably.

Only elections on my ballot will be West of England mayor and Avon & Somerset PCC.

Obviously I will back the Tories on first preferences.

Who shall I second preference?

I mean if you are confident that the Tories will make it to round two in both contests, and the Tories are your first preference, then there is no theoretical need for a second vote. But I understand the sentiment.

[Conservatopia]

Just got back from the office.  Off to vote later this evening probably.

Only elections on my ballot will be West of England mayor and Avon & Somerset PCC.

Obviously I will back the Tories on first preferences.

Who shall I second preference?

I mean if you are confident that the Tories will make it to round two in both contests, and the Tories are your first preference, then there is no theoretical need for a second vote. But I understand the sentiment.

Sure - it will probably be redundant.  But it is obviously symbolic.

In the PCC election I will 2nd pref Independent John Smith.  He may actually end up winning.  The current PCC is an independent and he is her hand picked successor.

Still undecided on my 2nd pref for metro mayor.  I might do the unthinkable and back That Still Great Movement of Yours simply because I loathe the LolDems and Greens so much.

[Geoffrey Howe]

Just got back from the office.  Off to vote later this evening probably.

Only elections on my ballot will be West of England mayor and Avon & Somerset PCC.

Obviously I will back the Tories on first preferences.

Who shall I second preference?

I mean if you are confident that the Tories will make it to round two in both contests, and the Tories are your first preference, then there is no theoretical need for a second vote. But I understand the sentiment.

Sure - it will probably be redundant.  But it is obviously symbolic.

In the PCC election I will 2nd pref Independent John Smith.  He may actually end up winning.  The current PCC is an independent and he is her hand picked successor.

Still undecided on my 2nd pref for metro mayor.  I might do the unthinkable and back That Still Great Movement of Yours simply because I loathe the LolDems and Greens so much.

Who's expected to win West of England? If I were you and planning to vote Tory I wouldn't do a second preference for that race.

[Geoffrey Howe]

I hear from a Green activist in London that turnout has been 'pretty good as expected'.

[Vosem]

Do you get just a first and a second preference, rather than a full RCV vote? That seems barely better than FPTP...

[Geoffrey Howe]

The polls have now closed.

One or two people trickling in and out at my polling station around 2145.

[jaichind]

What is the bbc link to results as they come in. I cannot seem to find it

[beesley]

Do you get just a first and a second preference, rather than a full RCV vote? That seems barely better than FPTP...

Yes, it's known as supplementary vote here. The top two candidates progress to an instant runoff and any second preferences are added. The government has pledged to scrap the system and replace it with FPTP.

[Geoffrey Howe]

What is the bbc link to results as they come in. I cannot seem to find it

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-56930132