English mega-local elections, 2021

[CumbrianLefty]

West & Central is very Tory at the London level - not so much at the national, even in 2015 IIRC. I'm wondering whether Tony Devenish will win here - do you know much about him? I'm not sure whether to support him.

Yeah - lots of areas are more Tory at local level - Wandsworth likes their low council tax, though not as much as the seat results would suggest. I don't know enough about Devenish, I looked to see his stance on transport and he doesn't seem to have one bar opposing Sadiq Khan's policy - just typing @Tony_Devenish into Twitter with the issue of your choice will tell you what you need to know. Of course, when you're a London Assembly member, particularly from the non-mayoral party you can be pro or anti pretty much anything within reason.

Tories were still run very close there in 2018 (indeed closer than simple seat totals would suggest)

[EastAnglianLefty]

Labour actually polled more votes, in fact, just not in the wards they needed to.

[beesley]

Labour actually polled more votes, in fact, just not in the wards they needed to.

Yes. Though it was still an underperformance which I am fairly confident they will largely catch up.

[Alcibiades]

West & Central is very Tory at the London level - not so much at the national, even in 2015 IIRC. I'm wondering whether Tony Devenish will win here - do you know much about him? I'm not sure whether to support him.

Yeah - lots of areas are more Tory at local level - Wandsworth likes their low council tax, though not as much as the seat results would suggest. I don't know enough about Devenish, I looked to see his stance on transport and he doesn't seem to have one bar opposing Sadiq Khan's policy - just typing @Tony_Devenish into Twitter with the issue of your choice will tell you what you need to know. Of course, when you're a London Assembly member, particularly from the non-mayoral party you can be pro or anti pretty much anything within reason.

Although it’s no longer the case, from 1997-2005 Putney had the distinction of being the only Labour-held Westminster seat which had no Labour councillors representing it at the local level.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

That was during the period when Wandsworth really was a popular council and when the administration really did win a lot of crossover support from very unlikely people: Roehampton is pretty much the definition of a long-term reliable Labour ward in London in terms of its composition and general profile, and yet somehow during those years...

[Geoffrey Howe]

West & Central is very Tory at the London level - not so much at the national, even in 2015 IIRC. I'm wondering whether Tony Devenish will win here - do you know much about him? I'm not sure whether to support him.

Yeah - lots of areas are more Tory at local level - Wandsworth likes their low council tax, though not as much as the seat results would suggest. I don't know enough about Devenish, I looked to see his stance on transport and he doesn't seem to have one bar opposing Sadiq Khan's policy - just typing @Tony_Devenish into Twitter with the issue of your choice will tell you what you need to know. Of course, when you're a London Assembly member, particularly from the non-mayoral party you can be pro or anti pretty much anything within reason.

Although it’s no longer the case, from 1997-2005 Putney had the distinction of being the only Labour-held Westminster seat which had no Labour councillors representing it at the local level.

And of course Putney was the only Labour gain in 2019. Funny electorate...though I guess it might have flipped in 2017 if it weren't for Justine Greening.

[warandwar]

Welsh language election broadcast for the CPB. Boomer Stalinists speaking in Welsh has a real charm to it.
https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=10223401935692912&id=1122575447&sfnsn=mo

[Blair]

Why is Sadiq so far ahead in the opinion polls for mayor? He hasn’t been a particularly good mayor in my opinion, but objectively he hasn’t done all that much. Now he has done some stuff which upsets outer London voters - for example the ULEZ expansion*. So I’m not sure why he is so far ahead in the polls. Ken Livingstone never got over 57% of the vote yet some polls have Khan >60%. Clearly Shaun Bailey isn’t a gifted campaigner, but Khan is doing very well in the first preferences.

All I can think of is that the Tories have become significantly more unpopular in London thanks to Brexit. But then Zac Goldsmith wasn’t crushed (and did very well in places like Richmond) but he was campaigning for Brexit and had a lot of issues around Islamophobia.

*Although that was sort of Mr Shapps trying to make Khan unpopular...

The extension hasn't come in yet, it's not a lot of money & it's not a really huge issue among Labours coalition; out of my school friends in London only 1 of us has a car.

There's the predictable effort by the Tories to call it an 'outer London tax' but I actually think TFL & London being broke actually makes it a weaker attack.  Air pollution is also an issue that polls higher than you'd expect & the fact we've had a congestion charge has meant its a bit pre baked in.

But yes Brexit (and the cultural implications of this) is a major driver- along with the fact that the Conservatives Electoral Strategy has abandoned even trying to win the old Lab-Tory marginals- since they're not trying to win those London seats lost in 2015 it has a general drag down.

Sadiq is also to his credit a very effective (and under-estimated) campaigner; mayoral elections are already relatively low turnout & people don't know about the powers or role of the Mayor so they want someone who is a figurehead for their values.

[Geoffrey Howe]

Why is Sadiq so far ahead in the opinion polls for mayor? He hasn’t been a particularly good mayor in my opinion, but objectively he hasn’t done all that much. Now he has done some stuff which upsets outer London voters - for example the ULEZ expansion*. So I’m not sure why he is so far ahead in the polls. Ken Livingstone never got over 57% of the vote yet some polls have Khan >60%. Clearly Shaun Bailey isn’t a gifted campaigner, but Khan is doing very well in the first preferences.

All I can think of is that the Tories have become significantly more unpopular in London thanks to Brexit. But then Zac Goldsmith wasn’t crushed (and did very well in places like Richmond) but he was campaigning for Brexit and had a lot of issues around Islamophobia.

*Although that was sort of Mr Shapps trying to make Khan unpopular...

The extension hasn't come in yet, it's not a lot of money & it's not a really huge issue among Labours coalition; out of my school friends in London only 1 of us has a car.

There's the predictable effort by the Tories to call it an 'outer London tax' but I actually think TFL & London being broke actually makes it a weaker attack.  Air pollution is also an issue that polls higher than you'd expect & the fact we've had a congestion charge has meant its a bit pre baked in.

But yes Brexit (and the cultural implications of this) is a major driver- along with the fact that the Conservatives Electoral Strategy has abandoned even trying to win the old Lab-Tory marginals- since they're not trying to win those London seats lost in 2015 it has a general drag down.

Sadiq is also to his credit a very effective (and under-estimated) campaigner; mayoral elections are already relatively low turnout & people don't know about the powers or role of the Mayor so they want someone who is a figurehead for their values.

True that hasn't come in yet; if it had I should imagine Sadiq would be more unpopular. Incompetence on the part of Mr Shapps.

Well the way ULEZ is expanding and where car ownership is higher means it is effectively an outer London tax. No it doesn't much affect the Labour coalition but you would think it would fire up the Tory coalition. I haven't seen many people calling for balancing the budget coming out of COVID so I'm not sure the 'we're broke' line works too well. The congestion charge is now £15 daily, for most of the day. It was designed to reduce traffic I believe, not to gain revenue. ULEZ will cost £12.50 per day simply to drive around for most cars within Finchley, Acton, Barking and Dulwich.

Certainly Brexit has an impact. I know quite a lot of people who would have been open to voting, or perhaps did often vote, Tory who are quite put off now.

Sadiq is a good campaigner, and a good speaker at town-hall style meetings in quite a similar way to Obama; though not as good as him.

[Blair]

My point is that Shaun Bailey is somehow both running on the idea that TFL is broke but equally Londoners should not have to pay anything extra to bail it out- which has led him to the perverse and unpopular solution of having to sell off the names of tube stations, something that is extremely unpopular.

There's also the reality that transport policy doesn't really fire people up at elections.. and it's not that unpopular. The below is a push poll with an agenda but it shows that running against a £12.50 isn't going to win you an election in a city with already low levels of car usage.

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/mayor/drivers-polluting-vehicles-charged-drive-london-poll-ulez-north-south-circular-roads-b932381.html

[Blair]

London is also objectively broke if you're enough of an anorak to follow this stuff closely- Hammersmith Bridge is closed to all traffic, the Bakerloo line extension has been put on ice & cross rail 2 has been cancelled.

I believe the Tories want to do all three of these things, while not expecting any new Government money nor expecting a rise in the rather limited tax rising powers of the Mayor,.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It really can't be emphasised enough that Bailey is just a shockingly poor candidate.

[Geoffrey Howe]

London is also objectively broke if you're enough of an anorak to follow this stuff closely- Hammersmith Bridge is closed to all traffic, the Bakerloo line extension has been put on ice & cross rail 2 has been cancelled.

I believe the Tories want to do all three of these things, while not expecting any new Government money nor expecting a rise in the rather limited tax rising powers of the Mayor,.

Well I suspect Mr Bailey would be much better at getting money for London from a Tory central government.

[beesley]

London is also objectively broke if you're enough of an anorak to follow this stuff closely- Hammersmith Bridge is closed to all traffic, the Bakerloo line extension has been put on ice & cross rail 2 has been cancelled.

I believe the Tories want to do all three of these things, while not expecting any new Government money nor expecting a rise in the rather limited tax rising powers of the Mayor,.

Well I suspect Mr Bailey would be much better at getting money for London from a Tory central government.

Quite possibly, but that says more about the way the government operates rather than anything to do with Shaun Bailey.

[Geoffrey Howe]

London is also objectively broke if you're enough of an anorak to follow this stuff closely- Hammersmith Bridge is closed to all traffic, the Bakerloo line extension has been put on ice & cross rail 2 has been cancelled.

I believe the Tories want to do all three of these things, while not expecting any new Government money nor expecting a rise in the rather limited tax rising powers of the Mayor,.

Well I suspect Mr Bailey would be much better at getting money for London from a Tory central government.

Quite possibly, but that says more about the way the government operates rather than anything to do with Shaun Bailey.

It does, particularly with this government; but generally it is not helpful to have a mayor from a different party from central government.

[mileslunn]

Asides from London, doesn't seem to be any other big ones and it seems Sadiq Khan is reasonably popular so should win London easily.  With way things have shifted never mind fact most Tories in London voted remain, can the Tories in near future really win there?  Off course nationally hasn't hurt them as Tories now able to win in many northern areas previously off limits.  Good chance they flip Hartlepool in the by-election.

[Geoffrey Howe]

Asides from London, doesn't seem to be any other big ones and it seems Sadiq Khan is reasonably popular so should win London easily.  With way things have shifted never mind fact most Tories in London voted remain, can the Tories in near future really win there?  Off course nationally hasn't hurt them as Tories now able to win in many northern areas previously off limits.  Good chance they flip Hartlepool in the by-election.

I think it would be an uphill battle. Boris only won in 2008 by 53-47 when he was personally very popular and the Labour government (and mayor) were unpopular. He did hold it in 2012 when the Tories were less popular; although the Tories did very well in 2015 by London standards.

[Conservatopia]

Here's the thing.  Most Tories don't really care about winning London.  In order to win London we would have to abandon our growing working class coalition.  And for what?  The mayoralty?  What's the point?  Add to that the fact that Bailey is an abysmal candidate and it's no surprise that Camp Bailey has seen donations and supporters dry up.

The fact that Bailey is running for re-election simultaneously to the Assembly shows that he knows that he will lose.

Honestly if I had the misfortune to live in the capital I would vote for wacko Fox just for the lulz.  I'd rather be winning Dudley council etc than London mayor.

I think (and it seems that so do many other Tories) that we should effectively abandon London and use it only as a scapegoat and boogeyman.  Cynical politics I know.

[Geoffrey Howe]

Here's the thing.  Most Tories don't really care about winning London.  In order to win London we would have to abandon our growing working class coalition.  And for what?  The mayoralty?  What's the point?  Add to that the fact that Bailey is an abysmal candidate and it's no surprise that Camp Bailey has seen donations and supporters dry up.

The fact that Bailey is running for re-election simultaneously to the Assembly shows that he knows that he will lose.

Honestly if I had the misfortune to live in the capital I would vote for wacko Fox just for the lulz.  I'd rather be winning Dudley council etc than London mayor.

I think (and it seems that so do many other Tories) that we should effectively abandon London and use it only as a scapegoat and boogeyman.  Cynical politics I know.

Umm when the Tories have been going on about a ‘strong economy’ esp. in order to fund the NHS, that wouldn’t be wise move given the money that comes out of London. And surely they want to keep all the financial services in the UK?

[CumbrianLefty]

This so called "working class coalition" is long term fool's gold, though - giving how much it depends on sectors of the electorate that are both declining *and* ageing.

How much rich boomer pensioners who just happened to do a manual job once should be considered "working class" is a moot point in any case, of course. When traditional A/B/C1/C2/D/E categories have become almost totally decoupled from *income*, how meaningful is "class" anyway?

(and the latest Survation poll showed Labour well ahead amongst LOW INCOME voters, as ever)

[Conservatopia]

This so called "working class coalition" is long term fool's gold, though - giving how much it depends on sectors of the electorate that are both declining *and* ageing.

How much rich boomer pensioners who just happened to do a manual job once should be considered "working class" is a moot point in any case, of course. When traditional A/B/C1/C2/D/E categories have become almost totally decoupled from *income*, how meaningful is "class" anyway?

(and the latest Survation poll showed Labour well ahead amongst LOW INCOME voters, as ever)

You're absolutely right and of course class =/= income but I was more using it as shorthand for what I suppose might be better described as a "populist" or "Brexit" coalition.

There's still masses of room to grow in the North amd Wales so I'm not sure the Tories need worry just yet about their ageing electorate.

Working class is a bit of a meaningless phrase today - I probably shouldn't use it.

Umm when the Tories have been going on about a ‘strong economy’ esp. in order to fund the NHS, that wouldn’t be wise move given the money that comes out of London. And surely they want to keep all the financial services in the UK?

I meant abandon trying to appeal to London electorally, not cut off London and let it sail away.

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

Creating boogeymen out of your own neighbors for political gain... Yup, definitely English

[ElectionObserver]

The Press Association has released their when to expect results details.

It's a bit of a mess with counting going on in different places on Thursday-Friday overnight, Friday, Saturday, Sunday and Monday. There'll be no big bang of results.

Counts in the UK are run by local authorities so each can decide their own timetable. There's a pretty big one which will count overnight and we should expect the result from 4-6am in the early hours of Friday morning and that's the Hartlepool by-election.

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/elections-2021-likely-declaration-times-230100951.html

[CumbrianLefty]

Final results coming out on *Monday* is unprecedented in modern times.

[ElectionObserver]

Final results coming out on *Monday* is unprecedented in modern times.

Something about Covid will be every council's excuse.

To be fair, there are a fair few ballots to count.
Some parts of England will have county council, district council, parish council and PCC elections to count. Everywhere in Wales has two Senedd ballots of the PCC elections to count.

In reality, basically everything with any meaning should be counted by Saturday. It's mainly the pointless PCC elections which drag out until Sunday and Monday.