English mega-local elections, 2021

[vileplume]

Here it is! I used a slightly older ward map so a few wards a slightly off - but usually all the wards surrounding them voted similarly so it hasn't been much trouble.
Also, I've probably made some mistakes; so point them out if you spot any.

Shades: 30-35, 35-40, 40-45, 45-50, 50-55, 55-60, 60-65, 65-70*, 70-75*, 75-80*
*Only Tory

Great map. The only thing is you need to correct Kenton (Brent). You've got it as Kahn when it should be strongly Bailey.

[Geoffrey Howe]

Great map. The only thing is you need to correct Kenton (Brent). You've got it as Kahn when it should be strongly Bailey.

Fixed it. I'll post a new map after a few more are spotted.

[Corbyn is (no longer) the leader of the Labour Party]

does The City usually vote Labour?

[Geoffrey Howe]

does The City usually vote Labour?

It's pretty marginal either way; voted Goldsmith last time. electoralcalculus has it down as voting Lib Dem in the 2019 general.

[vileplume]

does The City usually vote Labour?

Not often historically, no, though it would do on occasion e.g. Livingstone 2004. Nevertheless, it has long been one of the least Tory parts of the City of London & Westminster constituency (their strongest areas instead being Knightsbridge, Belgravia, Marylebone, Mayfair*, Tyburnia etc.). When the constituency as a whole shifted left after the referendum it's currently probably more likely to be Labour than not, but Khan's performance is better than what is typical for a generic Labour candidate.

Interestingly Labour's traditional best ward in the constituency ahead of the City, Churchill, hasn't really moved left in the way other parts of the constituency have and it probably voted for Bailey once postals are factored in. The reason for this is probably because it's poorer and much more ethnically diverse than the other wards, meaning less white liberals for the Tories to annoy. This ward has been abolished for next year's council elections though, with its area being split between Knightsbridge & Belgravia and the new ward of Pimlico South.

*West End is a divided ward with the Tory vote coming primarily from very affluent Mayfair and the Labour vote from Soho (London's traditional gay district).

[Geoffrey Howe]

does The City usually vote Labour?

Not often historically, no, though it would do on occasion e.g. Livingstone 2004. Nevertheless, it has long been one of the least Tory parts of the City of London & Westminster constituency (their strongest areas instead being Knightsbridge, Belgravia, Marylebone, Mayfair*, Tyburnia etc.). When the constituency as a whole shifted left after the referendum it's currently probably more likely to be Labour than not, but Kahn's performance is better than what is typical for a generic Labour candidate.

Interestingly Labour's traditional best ward in the constituency ahead of the City, Churchill, hasn't really moved left in the way other parts of the constituency have and it probably voted for Bailey once postals are factored in. The reason for this is probably because it's poorer and much more ethnically diverse than the other wards, meaning less white liberals for the Tories to annoy. This ward has been abolished for next year's council elections though, with its area being split between Knightsbridge & Belgravia and the new ward of Pimlico South.

*West End is a divided ward with the Tory vote coming primarily from very affluent Mayfair and the Labour vote from Soho (London's traditional gay district).

Dammit - no ultra-blue ward to talk about. We still have Royal Hospital though.

[vileplume]

does The City usually vote Labour?

Not often historically, no, though it would do on occasion e.g. Livingstone 2004. Nevertheless, it has long been one of the least Tory parts of the City of London & Westminster constituency (their strongest areas instead being Knightsbridge, Belgravia, Marylebone, Mayfair*, Tyburnia etc.). When the constituency as a whole shifted left after the referendum it's currently probably more likely to be Labour than not, but Kahn's performance is better than what is typical for a generic Labour candidate.

Interestingly Labour's traditional best ward in the constituency ahead of the City, Churchill, hasn't really moved left in the way other parts of the constituency have and it probably voted for Bailey once postals are factored in. The reason for this is probably because it's poorer and much more ethnically diverse than the other wards, meaning less white liberals for the Tories to annoy. This ward has been abolished for next year's council elections though, with its area being split between Knightsbridge & Belgravia and the new ward of Pimlico South.

*West End is a divided ward with the Tory vote coming primarily from very affluent Mayfair and the Labour vote from Soho (London's traditional gay district).

Dammit - no ultra-blue ward to talk about. We still have Royal Hospital though.

Knightsbridge & Belgravia is gaining the area of Churchill west of the railway line. This is the less Labour part, as the block Labour vote in the ward comes mainly from the run down Churchill Gardens Estate (which gave the ward its name) east of the railway line. These boundary changes will weaken Knightsbridge & Belgravia a bit, but nowhere near enough to challenge Tory hegemony. In fact I suspect these are the boundaries the Tories probably wanted in the first place.

[Geoffrey Howe]

London Mayoral by borough.
Shades: 35-37.5, 37.5-40, 40-42.5, 42.5-45, 45-47.5, 47.5-50, 50-52.5, 52.5-55, 55-57.5, 60-62.5

   

 

[Geoffrey Howe]

London mayoral by borough margins

Scale (somewhat arbitrary):
0-1, 1-2, 2-7, 7-12, 12-17, 22-27, 27-32, 32-37, >37

[Geoffrey Howe]

Twickenham side of Richmond-upon-Thames:

Khan: 15,745; 34.57%
Bailey: 15,125; 33.20%

Richmond side:

Khan: 8,719; 29.07%
Bailey: 12,052; 40.18%

[beesley]

Twickenham side of Richmond-upon-Thames:

Khan: 15,745; 34.57%
Bailey: 15,125; 33.20%

Richmond side:

Khan: 8,719; 29.07%
Bailey: 12,052; 40.18%

Don't forget that a few wards in the Richmond Park constituency are actually in Kingston, including the two northermost Khan wards. Though perhaps Coombe Vale cancelled them out.

[Geoffrey Howe]

Twickenham side of Richmond-upon-Thames:

Khan: 15,745; 34.57%
Bailey: 15,125; 33.20%

Richmond side:

Khan: 8,719; 29.07%
Bailey: 12,052; 40.18%

Don't forget that a few wards in the Richmond Park constituency are actually in Kingston, including the two northermost Khan wards. Though perhaps Coombe Vale cancelled them out.

Tudor and Coombe Hill voted Bailey; Canbury and Coombe Vale voted Khan, totalling
Khan: 5813, 36.77%
Bailey: 5433, 34.36%

Which means Richmond Park voted
Khan: 14,532; 31.73%
Bailey: 17,485; 38.17%

cf. 2019 general:
Conservative: 26,793; 41.18% (+3.01)
Labour: 3,407; 5.24% (-26.5)
Liberal Democrat: 34,559; 53.11%

[Geoffrey Howe]

Westminster North:
Khan: 11,582; 42.63%
Bailey: 9,204; 33.87%

cf. 2019 general:
Labour: 23,240; 54.16%
Conservative: 12,481; 29.09%

This is something of a microcosm of what has been happening in the election. In the east of the seat, you have wealthy wards full of Cameron Tories; the west is much poorer with a large ethnic minority population. The east swung Labour; the west swung Tory. Some examples:

Abbey Road (St John's Wood, full of American expats in private equity): Livingstone 2012: 15.8%; Khan 2021: 30.4%
Church Street: Livingstone 2012: 65.6%; Khan 2021: 46.0%


Cities of London & Westminster:
Khan: 9,328; 34.28%
Bailey: 10,625; 39.05%

cf. 2019 general
Conservative: 17,049; 39.91%
Labour: 11,624; 27.21%
Liberal Democrats: 13,096; 30.65%


Kensington
Khan: 8,917; 32.88%
Bailey: 11,410; 42.08%

cf. 2019 general
Conservative: 16,768; 38.32%
Labour: 16,618; 37.97%
Liberal Democrat: 9,312; 21.28%

Again, something of a microcosm.
Courtfield down in Belgravia: Boris 2012: 80%; Bailey: 55%

[Alcibiades]

[snip]

Could you do Wimbledon?

[Geoffrey Howe]

[snip]

Could you do Wimbledon?

Khan: 13,962; 36.52%
Bailey: 13,358; 35.63%


cf. 2019 general
Conservatives: 20,373; 38.42%
Labour: 12,543; 23.65%
Liberal Democrats: 19,745; 37.24%

[Alcibiades]

[snip]

Could you do Wimbledon?

Khan: 13,962; 36.52%
Bailey: 13,358; 35.63%


cf. 2019 general
Conservatives: 20,373; 38.42%
Labour: 12,543; 23.65%
Liberal Democrats: 19,745; 37.24%

Fascinating - for Wimbledon to be going Labour when they are only narrowly winning London as a whole is certainly a sign that things are changing here, and not in the Tories’ direction. I might be biased, but I would certainly say it’s one of the most interesting constituencies to watch in the entire country, with the potential for a three-way battleground. At this stage, I would peg the Tories as underdogs at the next election, particularly if Stephen Hammond retires, but they’ll still have a good chance as long as the Lib Dems and Labour split the anti-Tory vote fairly evenly.

[S019]

Why did Labour crash so much in Kensington? It was close in both 2017 and 2019. It's especially bizarre given their gains elsewhere in that part of London, and the fact that Labour has actually won the seat federally in a recent election unlike Wimbledon or London and Westminster. London and Westminster does seem like an underrated flip for the election when Labour next wins government.

[Oryxslayer]

Why did Labour crash so much in Kensington? It was close in both 2017 and 2019. It's especially bizarre given their gains elsewhere in that part of London, and the fact that Labour has actually won the seat federally in a recent election unlike Wimbledon or London and Westminster. London and Westminster does seem like an underrated flip for the election when Labour next wins government.

Well, its fairly obvious that when Labour do inaugurate a government - who knows when that will be -  nearly all of the London seats will be Labour. That's just the reality of their current coalition. Also remember that the Kensington seat and the Kensington & Chelsea borough are not the same. Bailey appears to have done comparatively well in the Labour minority areas in the west of the city, which would be reflected in their percentages in the Kensington seat.

Something that I would like to see, I don't know how feasible from Howe, is a breakdown of the Green vote. It may add a few missing pieces to certain areas where Labour gained or lost. But if the vote is more or less uniform, you can just come out and say it and spare us the expense.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

I always talk about my home borough, but Enfield was the only borough to be Khan '16 - Bailey '21. Quite interesting, especially as the borough has largely moved Labour in recent years at both the local and parliamentary level. They also lost a by election in Chase ward (apparently the election was entirely based on the future of a local golf course), and have been suffering several defections, including a new Green.

[Geoffrey Howe]

I always talk about my home borough, but Enfield was the only borough to be Khan '16 - Bailey '21. Quite interesting, especially as the borough has largely moved Labour in recent years at both the local and parliamentary level. They also lost a by election in Chase ward (apparently the election was entirely based on the future of a local golf course), and have been suffering several defections, including a new Green.

That mirrors the swings we have been seeing - leafy suburban areas like Cockfosters keeping very good margins for Bailey and ethnic minority areas like Edmonton swinging to Bailey.

[CumbrianLefty]

Why did Labour crash so much in Kensington? It was close in both 2017 and 2019. It's especially bizarre given their gains elsewhere in that part of London, and the fact that Labour has actually won the seat federally in a recent election unlike Wimbledon or London and Westminster. London and Westminster does seem like an underrated flip for the election when Labour next wins government.

Khan significantly underperformed Labour's showing in the Assembly vote in many places.

[Geoffrey Howe]

Why did Labour crash so much in Kensington? It was close in both 2017 and 2019. It's especially bizarre given their gains elsewhere in that part of London, and the fact that Labour has actually won the seat federally in a recent election unlike Wimbledon or London and Westminster. London and Westminster does seem like an underrated flip for the election when Labour next wins government.

Well, its fairly obvious that when Labour do inaugurate a government - who knows when that will be -  nearly all of the London seats will be Labour. That's just the reality of their current coalition. Also remember that the Kensington seat and the Kensington & Chelsea borough are not the same. Bailey appears to have done comparatively well in the Labour minority areas in the west of the city, which would be reflected in their percentages in the Kensington seat.

Something that I would like to see, I don't know how feasible from Howe, is a breakdown of the Green vote. It may add a few missing pieces to certain areas where Labour gained or lost. But if the vote is more or less uniform, you can just come out and say it and spare us the expense.

Berry did best in the stereotypical champagne socialist areas in North London and Dulwich. She did badly in ethnic minority areas in West London, but well in places like Hackney and Lewisham. I think she did well amongst black people but not Asian.

[Geoffrey Howe]

[snip]

Could you do Wimbledon?

Khan: 13,962; 36.52%
Bailey: 13,358; 35.63%


cf. 2019 general
Conservatives: 20,373; 38.42%
Labour: 12,543; 23.65%
Liberal Democrats: 19,745; 37.24%

Fascinating - for Wimbledon to be going Labour when they are only narrowly winning London as a whole is certainly a sign that things are changing here, and not in the Tories’ direction. I might be biased, but I would certainly say it’s one of the most interesting constituencies to watch in the entire country, with the potential for a three-way battleground. At this stage, I would peg the Tories as underdogs at the next election, particularly if Stephen Hammond retires, but they’ll still have a good chance as long as the Lib Dems and Labour split the anti-Tory vote fairly evenly.

Btw, Wimbledon Park voted Tory for the GLA constituency and list.

[vileplume]

Why did Labour crash so much in Kensington? It was close in both 2017 and 2019. It's especially bizarre given their gains elsewhere in that part of London, and the fact that Labour has actually won the seat federally in a recent election unlike Wimbledon or London and Westminster. London and Westminster does seem like an underrated flip for the election when Labour next wins government.

Khan significantly underperformed Labour's showing in the Assembly vote in many places.

That doesn't really explain Kensington though, as whilst he did underperform in North Kensington, he actually overperformed Labour's assembly vote in South Kensington (as was typical in posh areas).

[Alcibiades]

Why did Labour crash so much in Kensington? It was close in both 2017 and 2019. It's especially bizarre given their gains elsewhere in that part of London, and the fact that Labour has actually won the seat federally in a recent election unlike Wimbledon or London and Westminster. London and Westminster does seem like an underrated flip for the election when Labour next wins government.

Khan significantly underperformed Labour's showing in the Assembly vote in many places.

That doesn't really explain Kensington though, as whilst he did underperform in North Kensington, he actually overperformed Labour's assembly vote in South Kensington (as was typical in posh areas).

It has been something of a trend that Khan overperformed Labour in places which swung to him, and underperformed Labour in places which swung away from him.

Not particularly surprising considering that realignments tend to happen from the bottom down, i.e. voters will switch allegiance in high-profile races where they know the individual candidates well first, but stick with their old party in more local, less publicised contests for longer.