English mega-local elections, 2021

[Geoffrey Howe]

I was commenting on AI's (2007) assertion that the more 'hum-drum' areas of SW London were more Tory than the richer areas. What you say might well be true - though by its logic perhaps Esher & Walton should be solidly Tory - but I was looking for evidence supporting the above conclusion.

In any case, do you have any statistics for all these 'corporate lawyers' you are so fond of referring to?

I don't think they provide information on such specific things. But what I can give you is this:

The total amount of income tax paid to the treasury by constituency in the financial year 2018/2019:

Richmond Park: £1,500 million
Twickenham: £945 million
Kingston & Surbiton: £524 million

Average income by constituency over the same financial year:

Richmond Park: £86,200
Twickenham: £61,200
Kingston & Surbiton: £43,500

Both Richmond Park and Twickenham have similar rates of Home Ownership and low deprivation (Kingston & Surbiton is quite deprived in places), but as these figures indicate, the primary difference between the two is that Richmond Park has significantly more very rich people than Twickenham (corporate law merely being an example of an industry such people may be employed in). True, Richmond Park is nowhere near as insanely rich as Chelsea & Fulham is but its proximity to central London (and likely its fairly non-urban feel) has clearly attracted some of this demographic to the area. Super rich Remainers are unsurprisingly more forgiving of the Tories than those of just comfortably off means, hence Richmond Park is the better of the two seats for them.

As a side note, the difference between Labour held Putney, which also has some of this super-rich demographic, and Richmond Park (or indeed Twickenham) is that Putney has a way lower rates of home ownership and significantly more deprivation. It goes without saying that renting increases economic insecurity, thus massively increasing the propensity of voters to support Labour.

Thanks.

[YL]

What are some good examples? (I was thinking Disgusted of Tunbridge Wells, though I don’t know what the town is actually like.)

As you said Tunbridge Wells did vote Remain - it is a rather upscale town overall, not humdrum enough to be the kind of place you mentioned. I’m not that familiar with the area, but Hemel Hempstead seems like the it could be a decent example, as well as Aylesbury and Bracknell. Something worth noting is that Remain vote seems to be fairly strongly correlated with class in the Home Counties.

I think the Beaconsfield constituency could be a good one. Very right wing (and marginal on Brexit), giving outfits like the Referendum Party good scores. Similarly East Surrey (Geoffrey Howe's constituency).

Maybe Spelthorne (Kwasi Kwarteng) in fact. Is is white-flight-ish?

Yes, Beaconsfield constituency is a good call (although probably not the town itself). What I do know about Northwest Surrey (Spelthorne and Michael Gove’s constituency Surrey Heath) is that it is the least wealthy part of the county. East Surrey is also similar.

Within Beaconsfield constituency, Beaconsfield itself and Gerrards Cross, which are wealthy commuter towns, have considerably higher levels of education to degree level (over 50% of adults in many census areas in the 2011 census) than the southern parts of the constituency nearer (and to some extent suburbs of) Slough: particularly in and around Burnham and Iver it's often below 30% (not that this is particularly low by national standards, merely average).  For the constituency as a whole it's 37.0%, compare Chesham & Amersham 41.0%, Buckingham 35.7%, Wycombe 31.4%, Aylesbury 30.0%.

I'd imagine that those southern areas near Slough had considerably more Brexit support than Beaconsfield town and Gerrards Cross (or Marlow).  The former South Bucks district voted Leave, but Beaconsfield constituency, which additionally includes Marlow, is estimated to have voted narrowly Remain.

Here are the Surrey constituencies ranked according to the same measure:

Esher & Walton 42.8
SW Surrey 40.7
Guildford 40.6
Mole Valley 38.5
Woking 38.0
Epsom & Ewell 36.4
Reigate 36.1
Runnymede & Weybridge 33.8
Surrey Heath 33.1
East Surrey 31.4
Spelthorne 25.9

[Geoffrey Howe]

What are some good examples? (I was thinking Disgusted of Tunbridge Wells, though I don’t know what the town is actually like.)

As you said Tunbridge Wells did vote Remain - it is a rather upscale town overall, not humdrum enough to be the kind of place you mentioned. I’m not that familiar with the area, but Hemel Hempstead seems like the it could be a decent example, as well as Aylesbury and Bracknell. Something worth noting is that Remain vote seems to be fairly strongly correlated with class in the Home Counties.

I think the Beaconsfield constituency could be a good one. Very right wing (and marginal on Brexit), giving outfits like the Referendum Party good scores. Similarly East Surrey (Geoffrey Howe's constituency).

Maybe Spelthorne (Kwasi Kwarteng) in fact. Is is white-flight-ish?

Yes, Beaconsfield constituency is a good call (although probably not the town itself). What I do know about Northwest Surrey (Spelthorne and Michael Gove’s constituency Surrey Heath) is that it is the least wealthy part of the county. East Surrey is also similar.

Within Beaconsfield constituency, Beaconsfield itself and Gerrards Cross, which are wealthy commuter towns, have considerably higher levels of education to degree level (over 50% of adults in many census areas in the 2011 census) than the southern parts of the constituency nearer (and to some extent suburbs of) Slough: particularly in and around Burnham and Iver it's often below 30% (not that this is particularly low by national standards, merely average).  For the constituency as a whole it's 37.0%, compare Chesham & Amersham 41.0%, Buckingham 35.7%, Wycombe 31.4%, Aylesbury 30.0%.

I'd imagine that those southern areas near Slough had considerably more Brexit support than Beaconsfield town and Gerrards Cross (or Marlow).  The former South Bucks district voted Leave, but Beaconsfield constituency, which additionally includes Marlow, is estimated to have voted narrowly Remain.

Here are the Surrey constituencies ranked according to the same measure:

Esher & Walton 42.8
SW Surrey 40.7
Guildford 40.6
Mole Valley 38.5
Woking 38.0
Epsom & Ewell 36.4
Reigate 36.1
Runnymede & Weybridge 33.8
Surrey Heath 33.1
East Surrey 31.4
Spelthorne 25.9

Yep, I'd imagine that places between Slough and Gerrards Cross are like that. When I have been there they had a small-town feel - it's somewhat tough to describe - of being extremely right-wing (and not just economically). For what it's worth, electoralcalculus has those places as pro-Brexit, socially conservative and nationalist. Perhaps this is what vileplume was thinking of when he described Twickenham?

[beesley]

I'd imagine that those southern areas near Slough had considerably more Brexit support than Beaconsfield town and Gerrards Cross (or Marlow).  The former South Bucks district voted Leave, but Beaconsfield constituency, which additionally includes Marlow, is estimated to have voted narrowly Remain.

It did - I grew up near there. Leave will have got a lot of votes in the Burnham area - there is no strong distinction between the Western edges of Slough and the innermost bits of South Bucks, but the boundary makes sense. Iver (not Iver Heath) also fits the mold of a Leave-voting village (maybe like Strood) and I expect it did. Marlow will have voted Remain, particularly the west of the town near the grammar school - it does have a few pockets in the east near the town's industrial estate that may have voted Leave. The nearby village of Bourne End in the former Wycombe district will have likely voted Remain as well.

[Conservatopia]

Does anybody have a summary of the resulting coalitions in the NOC councils from this cycle?

I have the county councils and unitary authorities but not borough and district councils.

[YL]

Does anybody have a summary of the resulting coalitions in the NOC councils from this cycle?

I have the county councils and unitary authorities but not borough and district councils.

I doubt they're all known yet.  It's just been announced that Sheffield will still have a Labour leader but three Greens are joining the cabinet.

[Geoffrey Howe]

Ward results out for London!

https://www.londonelects.org.uk/im-voter/election-results/results-2021

https://www.londonelects.org.uk/sites/default/files/2021-05/2021%20London%20Elects%20-%20Ward%20Level%20Data%20Release.xlsx

[Geoffrey Howe]

Almost all of Richmond (except Barnes...) voted Lib Dem in the constituency, hitting 46% in Teddington. It was Labour voting in Hounslow which gave the seat to the Tories.

[beesley]

https://twitter.com/cinyc9/status/1395427386301288452?s=19

Surprised by Custom House, hadn't seen anything before to indicate it could go Tory. At the 2018 local elections it was no less strong for Labour than anywhere else in Newham.

(edit: thanks to Atlas member cinyc for doing this, I forgot he was a member here)

[Geoffrey Howe]

I'm currently working on creating a map of the wards with their results. I'm accounting for postals: assuming a uniform difference between postals and in-person, same percentage of the borough in postals and in-person. So if borough x votes 40% for the Tories in-person and 50% postal, I add the relevant number of postal votes for the ward with the postals as 25% more Tory than the in-person. Same thing for Labour.

[Alcibiades]

https://twitter.com/cinyc9/status/1395427386301288452?s=19
Surprised by Custom House, hadn't seen anything before to indicate it could go Tory. At the 2018 local elections it was no less strong for Labour than anywhere else in Newham.

I’m pleasantly surprised that my ward (Wimbledon Park) went Labour, considering that all three of its councillors are Tories, although I suppose it probably voted Lib Dem at the last GE.

[Geoffrey Howe]

https://twitter.com/cinyc9/status/1395427386301288452?s=19
Surprised by Custom House, hadn't seen anything before to indicate it could go Tory. At the 2018 local elections it was no less strong for Labour than anywhere else in Newham.

I’m pleasantly surprised that my ward (Wimbledon Park) went Labour, considering that all three of its councillors are Tories, although I suppose it probably voted Lib Dem at the last GE.

1200-1003. It should be super close with postals; I haven’t crunched the numbers yet.
You can see the differences in West Central!

[Geoffrey Howe]

The fellow beesley quoted from Twitter has done the same as I am doing - and of what I’ve done we get the same results. Shall I continue? (How does he do it so fast?)

https://twitter.com/cinyc9/status/1395442942341484559

[Oryxslayer]

The fellow beesley quoted from Twitter has done the same as I am doing - and of what I’ve done we get the same results. Shall I continue? (How does he do it so fast?)

https://twitter.com/cinyc9/status/1395442942341484559

A - Excel, R, and GIS software makes hand and paint calculations redundant. Take it from someone who does it for a living.

B - That guy is our own Cinyc on this forum.

[Geoffrey Howe]

The fellow beesley quoted from Twitter has done the same as I am doing - and of what I’ve done we get the same results. Shall I continue? (How does he do it so fast?)

https://twitter.com/cinyc9/status/1395442942341484559

A - Excel, R, and GIS software makes hand and paint calculations redundant. Take it from someone who does it for a living.

B - That guy is our own Cinyc on this forum.

I’m not proficient in Excel, plainly! Obviously I did the calculations in Excel, but it still took a lot of time.

[Geoffrey Howe]

One thing which occurs to me is the stark difference between inner and outer London - with only Belgravia to break it up. There's always been this, but much less significant than this time.

[beesley]

One thing which occurs to me is the stark difference between inner and outer London - with only Belgravia to break it up. There's always been this, but much less significant than this time.

If you or anybody else is able to work out some cool stats - e.g. best ward for Khan, Bailey and Berry that would also be appreciated. It would be nice just to sort some percentages in a sheet but I realise that is unhelpful to those who work hardest at these things.

[Geoffrey Howe]

One thing which occurs to me is the stark difference between inner and outer London - with only Belgravia to break it up. There's always been this, but much less significant than this time.

If you or anybody else is able to work out some cool stats - e.g. best ward for Khan, Bailey and Berry that would also be appreciated. It would be nice just to sort some percentages in a sheet but I realise that is unhelpful to those who work hardest at these things.

Anyway, with postals accounted for:

Sadiq Khan - Hornsey (Haringey) 62.35%
Shaun Bailey - Biggin Hill (Bromley) 76.46%
Sian Berry - Dalston (Hackney) 20.70%
Luisa Porritt - Berrylands (Kingston) 17.06%
Lawrence Fox - (!!) Royal Hospital (Kensington) 5.67%
Niko Omilana - Stonebridge (Brent) 6.19%

Worth noting that Fox, oddly, did best in West Central - particularly the ultra-Tory bits of it -
and that the second preferences in those places were abnormally Tory; hence, perhaps the low headline percentage.

[Geoffrey Howe]

I think this is the upshot:

Bailey did badly in Tory areas of central London - for example (w/out postals) going from 78% to 59% in Knightsbridge. Maida Vale went from >52% Boris to 29% Bailey.
Similar story in Richmond-upon-Thames - though he just kept on to every ward on the Richmond side; most of the Twickenham side went to Khan. In light of this I find it surprising that Chiswick stayed blue - I would have expected it to flip (and it did vote Livingstone).

But did very well in Labour ethnic minority areas - e.g. winning Custom House, blue in a sea of red in East London, or only reaching 46% in Church Street - and absolutely crushed it in pro-Brexit outer suburbs like Bromley and Havering, but keeping up good margins in more pro-EU areas like Golders Green and Stanmore. Bailey came within two votes of winning Roehampton.

I can't explain the Fox vote in Kensington - his strongest ward was Royal Hospital and he did well throughout West Central. This, and the fact that the second preferences skewed abnormally Tory, goes some way to explain the drops in headline percentage in these places though.

[beesley]

One thing which occurs to me is the stark difference between inner and outer London - with only Belgravia to break it up. There's always been this, but much less significant than this time.

If you or anybody else is able to work out some cool stats - e.g. best ward for Khan, Bailey and Berry that would also be appreciated. It would be nice just to sort some percentages in a sheet but I realise that is unhelpful to those who work hardest at these things.

Anyway, with postals accounted for:

Sadiq Khan - Hornsey (Haringey) 62.35%
Shaun Bailey - Biggin Hill (Bromley) 76.46%
Sian Berry - Dalston (Hackney) 20.70%
Luisa Porritt - Berrylands (Kingston) 17.06%
Lawrence Fox - (!!) Royal Hospital (Kensington) 5.67%
Niko Omilana - Stonebridge (Brent) 6.19%

Worth noting that Fox, oddly, did best in West Central - particularly the ultra-Tory bits of it -
and that the second preferences in those places were abnormally Tory; hence, perhaps the low headline percentage.

Thanks for sharing! Interesting results - it seems as if Omilana did best in ethnically diverse areas, but he's beating Porritt in both his strong areas and wards that the Lib Dems are weak in anyway (e.g. South Hornchurch).

In a lot of places I would have expected Khan to get 50+% in, he only got 40% - parts of Newham, Croydon and Redbridge particularly, because in those areas its Bailey who kept him down, not Berry (although she did help keep Khan lower than expected almost everywhere).

[Geoffrey Howe]

Here it is! I used a slightly older ward map so a few wards a slightly off - but usually all the wards surrounding them voted similarly so it hasn't been much trouble.
Also, I've probably made some mistakes; so point them out if you spot any.

Shades: 30-35, 35-40, 40-45, 45-50, 50-55, 55-60, 60-65, 65-70*, 70-75*, 75-80*
*Only Tory

[xelas81]

Why did New Addington in Croydon have one of the biggest swing to Bailey?

[vileplume]

Why did New Addington in Croydon have one of the biggest swing to Bailey?

Very White Working Class and pro-Brexit. It's swung massively to the Tories at all levels since the referendum and part of Bailey's success there is just a continuation of that. However Sadiq Khan is a terrible fit for New Addington and a different Labour politician (e.g. the late Tessa Jowell who Khan beat to win the Labour nomination back in 2016) would have performed better in the area, although given current trends, likely still would have lost by a lot.

[beesley]

New Addington has also had BNP councillors in the past - it's a bit like Dagenham or Rainham politically.

[Geoffrey Howe]

Why did New Addington in Croydon have one of the biggest swing to Bailey?

Was going to post something longer but those above have dealt with it well.
Worth noting that it had the lowest turnout (23% or so) last time, but was massively up this time - 30% in person alone.