English mega-local elections, 2021

[CumbrianLefty]

FWIW the london results are so badly done- you only get the 1st round results- I think in both those seats Khan wins on 2nd preferences but it's still a big worry & he appears to be running below the Labour ticket (but that's because the assembly seats are FPP so sees some herding?)

Yes, indications are that Khan is improving his position when second votes are taken into account.

[Geoffrey Howe]

According to the BBC Shaun Bailey has flipped Brent and Harrow???

For context, Ken Livingstone won this constituency in 2008.

The way things are going, Khan is going to win, but it could well be rather close.

[CumbrianLefty]

Khan appears to be about 53-47 ahead *now* when second votes are taken into account.

Given the areas still to count, it is hard not to see that gap increasing significantly.

[Geoffrey Howe]

Khan appears to be about 53-47 ahead *now* when second votes are taken into account.

Given the areas still to count, it is hard not to see that gap increasing significantly.

I've seen a lot of talk in another place about the effect of Bailey/Khan voters and the other way around.

We still have Barnet & Camden which Bailey may win, Croydon & Sutton too. South West will be closer but should still go Bailey. So I don't think the votes coming in are going to be overwhelmingly Khan even if they skew that way.

That said, his 2nd preferences are stronger relative to his 1st, so it'll be interesting to see how he does compared to his 56/44 last time.

In any case, what's impressive is that the Tories have had enormous gains in the North, while still posting respectable scores in London.

[beesley]

In my local council the Tories are off to a good start, fending off a Lib Dem challenge in their most Remain ward and ousting a Labour incumbent by a handsome margin (which was expected) in the more Brexity east of the city.

[beesley]

West of England Mayor (First Round):

Lab - 33.4%
Con (incumbent not standing) - 28.6%
Grn - 21.7%
LD - 16.3%

Hearing Dan Norris strongly outperformed Labour's GE vote share in his old seat, unlike Stephen Williams (LD) who didn't in his. Norris looks certain to take it based on that Green vote.

Liverpool City Region Mayor:

Lab (Steve Rotheram running for re-election) -58.3%
Con - 19.6%
Grn - 11.8%
LD - 10.3%

[Oryxslayer]

BBC report from Birmingham had Labour up over Street by about 20k on first preferences. That's not enough and it will be canceled out by the Street vote in the suburbs.

[beesley]

BBC report from Birmingham had Labour up over Street by about 20k on first preferences. That's not enough and it will be canceled out by the Street vote in the suburbs.

Agree with everything you said but I think the residents of the Black Country and Solihull would not be happy about being characterised as suburbs of Birmingham...

[Geoffrey Howe]

BBC report from Birmingham had Labour up over Street by about 20k on first preferences. That's not enough and it will be canceled out by the Street vote in the suburbs.

Agree with everything you said but I think the residents of the Black Country and Solihull would not be happy about being characterised as suburbs of Birmingham...

How will Solihull vote?

[beesley]

BBC report from Birmingham had Labour up over Street by about 20k on first preferences. That's not enough and it will be canceled out by the Street vote in the suburbs.

Agree with everything you said but I think the residents of the Black Country and Solihull would not be happy about being characterised as suburbs of Birmingham...

How will Solihull vote?

Strongly Conservative as always.

[Oryxslayer]

West Midlands:

31.23% turnout

Conservative: 299,318 Votes - 49%
Labour: 244,009 Votes - 40%
Green: 35,559 Votes - 6%
Lib-Dem: 21,836 Votes - 3.5%
Reform: 13,568 Votes - 2.5%

Second preferences should benefit Labour, but Street wins just off the Reform votes. Street increased first preferences by 7% from 2017.

[Blair]

West Midlands:

31.23% turnout

Conservative: 299,318 Votes - 49%
Labour: 244,009 Votes - 40%
Green: 35,559 Votes - 6%
Lib-Dem: 21,836 Votes - 3.5%
Reform: 13,568 Votes - 2.5%

Second preferences should benefit Labour, but Street wins just off the Reform votes. Street increased first preferences by 7% from 2017.

Sadly that's actually a better result than I expected

[Geoffrey Howe]

Lib Dems second in South West GLA constituency with 28%, only 4 points behind the Tories.
Likewise, on the list they got 20% there (below Labour though). Maybe they won Richmond? They must have got some wards around Twickenham.

However, much worse for Porritt, at 10%. So some Lib Dem/Khan voters around there. All around London Labour for the GLA is over performing Khan.

[beesley]

Lib Dems second in South West GLA constituency with 28%, only 4 points behind the Tories.
Likewise, on the list they got 20% there (below Labour though). Maybe they won Richmond? They must have got some wards around Twickenham.

Is that the final result?

[Geoffrey Howe]

Lib Dems second in South West GLA constituency with 28%, only 4 points behind the Tories.
Likewise, on the list they got 20% there (below Labour though). Maybe they won Richmond? They must have got some wards around Twickenham.

Is that the final result?

90%. That’s when London Elects stops updating.

[beesley]

Greater Manchester Mayoral Results:

Labour (Andy Burnham running for re-election) - 67.3% (+4%)
Con - 19.6%
Green - 4.4%
LD - 3.2%
Others - 5.7%

[Oryxslayer]

Labour Gains West of England.

59.5% for Dan Norris on the second vote to 40.5% for Dan Williams.

[Oryxslayer]

BBC showed a fairly large Green surge in Stroud at the expense of the Conservatives. Any input in what's going on there, besides the normal demographic explanations.

[beesley]

BBC showed a fairly large Green surge in Stroud at the expense of the Conservatives. Any input in what's going on there, besides the normal demographic explanations.

They just have a very strong presence there. They got 12000 votes in the constituency which is almost coterminous last time.

[thumb21]

Andy Street wins 54.5-45.5

[Geoffrey Howe]

Andy Street wins 54.5-45.5

Risible number casting valid second preferences.

[Blair]

Looks like Labour just might win the Cambridgeshire & Peterborough Metro Mayor... they came third in 2017.

Andy Street wins 54.5-45.5

This is funnily enough what I would have predicted last week when my assumption was a mixed night for Labour- so in what was a bad night elsewhere this wasn't too bad

[Blair]

This is the one reason why it was relatively stupid to hold the Hartlepool by election at the same time; without the results yesterday would have been seen as rather poor, rather than apocalyptic (which is the current mood in the party)

[beesley]

... and the Tories gain my council from Labour. There was a lot of dissatisfaction with the Labour council but the results were very good for the Conservatives.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

This is the one reason why it was relatively stupid to hold the Hartlepool by election at the same time; without the results yesterday would have been seen as rather poor, rather than apocalyptic (which is the current mood in the party)

Yes - what you have are poor local election results that reflect (it's an unusual thing to happen, but these are unusual circumstances to have elections) much greater enthusiasm amongst government supporters than opposition ones (and so within that dreary landscape, some highlights), rather than a meteorite that destroys all life on Earth.

I think the assumption must have been that if it were held on the same day then it would be counted at the same time and so subsumed into any wider narrative, but it was one of the few things counted overnight...