English mega-local elections, 2021

[beesley]

'Tory sources' say they believe they can now win the London mayoralty. That would be odd.

That certainly a case of them putting the cart before the horse. Northing suggests the Conservatives are gaining in Remain/Globalized areas, in fact their falling back in some like Cambridge. Jaichind's chart basically has the full story.

Yes. Low turnout probably favours the Tories, but I think it'll mean a good Khan victory rather than a landslide.

Tories hold West Central by a couple of percentage points.

Yep I can see on London Elects, but no numbers there. Do you have the margin?

2205 (53713 to 51508).

Wow that's close. I know some people in West Central who abdicated responsibility by voting Lib Dem...
Do you have the percentages? (I can't find on London Elects or BBC)

Correction it was 2225, not 2205.

Con - 38.8%
Lab - 37.3%
Green - 11.5%
LD - 9.4%

All others below 5%.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1390736765548367880?s=20

[Geoffrey Howe]

'Tory sources' say they believe they can now win the London mayoralty. That would be odd.

That certainly a case of them putting the cart before the horse. Northing suggests the Conservatives are gaining in Remain/Globalized areas, in fact their falling back in some like Cambridge. Jaichind's chart basically has the full story.

Yes. Low turnout probably favours the Tories, but I think it'll mean a good Khan victory rather than a landslide.

Tories hold West Central by a couple of percentage points.

Yep I can see on London Elects, but no numbers there. Do you have the margin?

2205 (53713 to 51508).

Wow that's close. I know some people in West Central who abdicated responsibility by voting Lib Dem...
Do you have the percentages? (I can't find on London Elects or BBC)

Correction it was 2225, not 2205.

Con - 38.8%
Lab - 37.3%
Green - 11.5%
LD - 9.4%

All others below 5%.

Good result for the Greens and Lib Dems.

[Conservatopia]

Big Tory gains in Cornwall, largely at the expense of the Lib Dems.

Cornwall elections are normally delightfully idiosyncratic but they seem to have finally succumbed to voting the same way for General and local elections.

[Alcibiades]

Big Tory gains in Cornwall, largely at the expense of the Lib Dems.

Cornwall elections are normally delightfully idiosyncratic but they seem to have finally succumbed to voting tge same way for General and local elections.

Apparently this result was largely expected, but I’m not exactly sure why.

[Oryxslayer]

Conservatives also now have the plurality lead in the Plymouth Council which flipped from Labour to No control.

And here's the flip side to the North: 15 conservative losses in Surrey to Lib Dems, Localists, Greens, and Labour.

[Conservatopia]

Big Tory gains in Cornwall, largely at the expense of the Lib Dems.

Cornwall elections are normally delightfully idiosyncratic but they seem to have finally succumbed to voting tge same way for General and local elections.

Apparently this result was largely expected, but I’m not exactly sure why.

Nice to see Andrew George has an elected job again.  I had begun to feel rather sorry for him.

[beesley]

Big Tory gains in Cornwall, largely at the expense of the Lib Dems.

Cornwall elections are normally delightfully idiosyncratic but they seem to have finally succumbed to voting tge same way for General and local elections.

Apparently this result was largely expected, but I’m not exactly sure why.

Nice to see Andrew George has an elected job again.  I had begun to feel rather sorry for him.

On the flip side Mike Thornton lost near me in Eastleigh. Former Tory MPs Edwina Currie and Simon Kirby both lost as well.

[Geoffrey Howe]

According to the BBC Shaun Bailey has flipped Brent and Harrow???

[Alcibiades]

According to the BBC Shaun Bailey has flipped Brent and Harrow???

On the flip side, Khan has improved significantly in West Central compared to 2016. Goldsmith won by 25,000, Bailey has won by only 2,000.

[Geoffrey Howe]

According to the BBC Shaun Bailey has flipped Brent and Harrow???

On the flip side, Khan has improved significantly in West Central compared to 2016. Goldsmith won by 25,000, Bailey has won by only 2,000.

Yes. But Bailey has just won the 1st preferences of Ealing and Hillingdon. Boris won this though. The way things are going - and they might not hold - Khan should get a narrow victory.

[Geoffrey Howe]

'Tory sources' say they believe they can now win the London mayoralty. That would be odd.

That certainly a case of them putting the cart before the horse. Northing suggests the Conservatives are gaining in Remain/Globalized areas, in fact their falling back in some like Cambridge. Jaichind's chart basically has the full story.

Yes. Low turnout probably favours the Tories, but I think it'll mean a good Khan victory rather than a landslide.

Tories hold West Central by a couple of percentage points.

Yep I can see on London Elects, but no numbers there. Do you have the margin?

2205 (53713 to 51508).

Wow that's close. I know some people in West Central who abdicated responsibility by voting Lib Dem...
Do you have the percentages? (I can't find on London Elects or BBC)

Correction it was 2225, not 2205.

Con - 38.8%
Lab - 37.3%
Green - 11.5%
LD - 9.4%

All others below 5%.

My guess is Bailey wins Westminster and K&C, but Khan wins H&F? With that result Westminster could go Khan though.

[Geoffrey Howe]

According to the BBC Shaun Bailey has flipped Brent and Harrow???

On the flip side, Khan has improved significantly in West Central compared to 2016. Goldsmith won by 25,000, Bailey has won by only 2,000.

Also, Sadiq has only just squeaked past 50% in Lambeth and Southwark.

[Conservatopia]

Big Tory gains in Cornwall, largely at the expense of the Lib Dems.

Cornwall elections are normally delightfully idiosyncratic but they seem to have finally succumbed to voting tge same way for General and local elections.

Apparently this result was largely expected, but I’m not exactly sure why.

Nice to see Andrew George has an elected job again.  I had begun to feel rather sorry for him.

On the flip side Mike Thornton lost near me in Eastleigh. Former Tory MPs Edwina Currie and Simon Kirby both also lost.

Trying to think of something witty...

[Geoffrey Howe]

Big Tory gains in Cornwall, largely at the expense of the Lib Dems.

Cornwall elections are normally delightfully idiosyncratic but they seem to have finally succumbed to voting tge same way for General and local elections.

Apparently this result was largely expected, but I’m not exactly sure why.

Nice to see Andrew George has an elected job again.  I had begun to feel rather sorry for him.

On the flip side Mike Thornton lost near me in Eastleigh. Former Tory MPs Edwina Currie and Simon Kirby both also lost.

Trying to think of something witty...

That's better than can be said of her. IIRC her response is to throw orange juice at people.

[Geoffrey Howe]

OK, I think we're done in London for tonight. A bit more Labour leaning tomorrow, but not by too much it seems.

Sadiq Khan
437,286      40.2%

Shaun Bailey
380,476      35.0%

Sian Berry
90,300        8.3%

Decent for Bailey. Khan will win, but not by an enormous amount.

[Conservatopia]

The Tories have picked up Avon & Somerset PCC.  Skimming the results it looks promising for Labour in the WECA mayoral election.  Lots of votes in Bristol.

[beesley]

The Tories have picked up Avon & Somerset PCC.  Skimming the results it looks promising for Labour in the WECA mayoral election.  Lots of votes in Bristol.

Heard that the Greens were hoping to potentially unseat Marvin Rees - sounds unlikely but any news?

[Geoffrey Howe]

According to the BBC Shaun Bailey has flipped Brent and Harrow???

Will we get ward results in the end? Or only constituency?

[joevsimp]

According to the BBC Shaun Bailey has flipped Brent and Harrow???

Will we get ward results in the end? Or only constituency?

full ward-by-ward results spreadsheet for all three ballots (and mayoral 2nd Prefs fwtw) should be published on londonelects.org.uk some point in the next week or so. Really good dataset except for the fact that postal votes are only broken down by borough rather than ward, so that distorts whatever you do with the ward data slightly

[joevsimp]

The Tories have picked up Avon & Somerset PCC.  Skimming the results it looks promising for Labour in the WECA mayoral election.  Lots of votes in Bristol.

Heard that the Greens were hoping to potentially unseat Marvin Rees - sounds unlikely but any news?

Bristol counting metro mayor tomorrow morning, city mayor in afternoon and council on Sunday. Looks like they already have numbers of ballots verified so they should get through quickly once they get going.

I'd be thrilled if we managed it but don't think so, might manage to push into second place though and push it close with LibDem second prefs

[Blair]

FWIW the london results are so badly done- you only get the 1st round results- I think in both those seats Khan wins on 2nd preferences but it's still a big worry & he appears to be running below the Labour ticket (but that's because the assembly seats are FPP so sees some herding?)

[Blair]

A point I never realised- a lot of ballots get rejected for having too many votes (you get 2 for the mayoral elections) - 8,000 in Ealing & Hillington alone!

[Blair]

The 'joke' vote also seems to be quite high...

[Conservatopia]

The Tories have picked up Avon & Somerset PCC.  Skimming the results it looks promising for Labour in the WECA mayoral election.  Lots of votes in Bristol.

Heard that the Greens were hoping to potentially unseat Marvin Rees - sounds unlikely but any news?

I don't see it happening and the PCC results don't suggest it unless they can pick up the second prefs of all other parties.


But for sure the Greens have done well here and I reckon they get second place.  I loathe the Green Party but Rees is a nasty person and a bad mayor so not sure what to hope