English mega-local elections, 2021

[Oryxslayer]

Ben Houchen (Con) has won the Tees Valley Mayoral Race with 73% of the vote.

[Geoffrey Howe]

Ben Houchen (Con) has won the Tees Valley Mayoral Race with 73% of the vote.

I can't see this on the BBC?

Edit: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-tees-57028650

[Geoffrey Howe]

Turnout up 13 points to 34% in Tees Valley.

[beesley]

Labour held the Liverpool Mayoralty (the city itself, not the regional metro mayor).

[beesley]

It now looks like Sadiq Khan will do very well in the London Mayoral election. Do you think his coattails will flip some GLA constituencies?

I'm thinking particularly of South West (Hounslow, Kingston, Richmond) and West Central (Westminster, Kensington, Hammersmith).

Havering and Redbridge less likely I think because of the strong UKIP vote last time.

Looks to be close in West Central. Not enough of Havering and Redbridge in to form meaningful conclusions but Tories are confident.

Where do you read this? Uniform swing assumed it was looking marginal, but very crudely based on my interactions the Tory vote was fairly solid in my pro-EU circle.

Conservatives were only ahead by a couple of percentage points with most of Hammersmith and Fulham yet to count.

[Geoffrey Howe]

It now looks like Sadiq Khan will do very well in the London Mayoral election. Do you think his coattails will flip some GLA constituencies?

I'm thinking particularly of South West (Hounslow, Kingston, Richmond) and West Central (Westminster, Kensington, Hammersmith).

Havering and Redbridge less likely I think because of the strong UKIP vote last time.

Looks to be close in West Central. Not enough of Havering and Redbridge in to form meaningful conclusions but Tories are confident.

Where do you read this? Uniform swing assumed it was looking marginal, but very crudely based on my interactions the Tory vote was fairly solid in my pro-EU circle.

Conservatives were only ahead by a couple of percentage points with most of Hammersmith and Fulham yet to count.

Where do you get this information? Is it only H&F left?

[beesley]

It now looks like Sadiq Khan will do very well in the London Mayoral election. Do you think his coattails will flip some GLA constituencies?

I'm thinking particularly of South West (Hounslow, Kingston, Richmond) and West Central (Westminster, Kensington, Hammersmith).

Havering and Redbridge less likely I think because of the strong UKIP vote last time.

Looks to be close in West Central. Not enough of Havering and Redbridge in to form meaningful conclusions but Tories are confident.

Where do you read this? Uniform swing assumed it was looking marginal, but very crudely based on my interactions the Tory vote was fairly solid in my pro-EU circle.

Conservatives were only ahead by a couple of percentage points with most of Hammersmith and Fulham yet to count.

Where do you get this information? Is it only H&F left?

Off the London Elects website + local sources and people in another place.

[Geoffrey Howe]

It now looks like Sadiq Khan will do very well in the London Mayoral election. Do you think his coattails will flip some GLA constituencies?

I'm thinking particularly of South West (Hounslow, Kingston, Richmond) and West Central (Westminster, Kensington, Hammersmith).

Havering and Redbridge less likely I think because of the strong UKIP vote last time.

Looks to be close in West Central. Not enough of Havering and Redbridge in to form meaningful conclusions but Tories are confident.

Where do you read this? Uniform swing assumed it was looking marginal, but very crudely based on my interactions the Tory vote was fairly solid in my pro-EU circle.

Conservatives were only ahead by a couple of percentage points with most of Hammersmith and Fulham yet to count.

Where do you get this information? Is it only H&F left?

Off the London Elects website + local sources and people in another place.

Ah yes I see two hours ago in another place that the Tories are ahead by 4 after 42% in.

[YL]

Labour lost control in Sheffield.  The council leader lost his Hillsborough seat to the Greens, who made 5 gains.  The Lib Dems made three gains, but missed out on a couple they might have won, while the Tories won the UKIP/Independent seat in Stocksbridge & Upper Don to regain a presence on the Council after 13 years .  New council Lab 41, Lib Dem 29, Green 13, Con 1.

Map:

[Geoffrey Howe]

Labour lost control in Sheffield.  The council leader lost his Hillsborough seat to the Greens, who made 5 gains.  The Lib Dems made three gains, but missed out on a couple they might have won, while the Tories won the UKIP/Independent seat in Stocksbridge & Upper Don to regain a presence on the Council after 13 years .  New council Lab 41, Lib Dem 29, Green 13, Con 1.

Map:

Based on those results would the LDs have won Hallam?

[Geoffrey Howe]

'Tory sources' say they believe they can now win the London mayoralty. That would be odd.

[jaichind]

[YL]

Labour lost control in Sheffield.  The council leader lost his Hillsborough seat to the Greens, who made 5 gains.  The Lib Dems made three gains, but missed out on a couple they might have won, while the Tories won the UKIP/Independent seat in Stocksbridge & Upper Don to regain a presence on the Council after 13 years .  New council Lab 41, Lib Dem 29, Green 13, Con 1.

Map:

Based on those results would the LDs have won Hallam?

Yes, easily.  They weren't that far behind in Crookes & Crosspool and were way ahead of Labour in Fulwood and Dore & Totley.

Greens probably carried Sheffield Central, though the ward boundaries don't quite match.

Meanwhile in Barnsley the Tories did surprisingly well in the two wards covering the town of Hoyland.  They were closeish in Hoyland Milton, and actually tied with the Labour candidate in Rockingham.  But they lost the coin toss...

[Oryxslayer]

'Tory sources' say they believe they can now win the London mayoralty. That would be odd.

That certainly a case of them putting the cart before the horse. Northing suggests the Conservatives are gaining in Remain/Globalized areas, in fact their falling back in some like Cambridge. Jaichind's chart basically has the full story.

[Geoffrey Howe]

'Tory sources' say they believe they can now win the London mayoralty. That would be odd.

That certainly a case of them putting the cart before the horse. Northing suggests the Conservatives are gaining in Remain/Globalized areas, in fact their falling back in some like Cambridge. Jaichind's chart basically has the full story.

Yes. Low turnout probably favours the Tories, but I think it'll mean a good Khan victory rather than a landslide.

[OSR stands with Israel]

https://mobile.twitter.com/patrickkmaguire/status/1390687211184705541

[Cassius]

I’ll have whatever they’re smoking.

[Alcibiades]

BBC repeating the line that the London mayoral race is much closer than expected - apparently it’s 39% for Khan and 37% for Bailey. However, the more Tory boroughs are largely counting today, so Khan should probably win in the end.

[Gass3268]

BBC repeating the line that the London mayoral race is much closer than expected - apparently it’s 39% for Khan and 37% for Bailey. However, the more Tory boroughs are largely counting today, so Khan should probably win in the end.

So Khan is up by 2 in mostly Conservative areas and that's a bad thing for him? So the media's ignorance of political geography is an international phenomenon. 

[Alcibiades]

BBC repeating the line that the London mayoral race is much closer than expected - apparently it’s 39% for Khan and 37% for Bailey. However, the more Tory boroughs are largely counting today, so Khan should probably win in the end.

So Khan is up by 2 in mostly Conservative areas and that's a bad thing for him? So the media's ignorance of political geography is an international phenomenon. 

Well, it’s not just Conservative areas, although they are somewhat more Tory than the areas being counted tomorrow. They are right that this is much closer, even at this stage, than anyone had expected before.

[Alcibiades]

Big Tory gains in Cornwall, largely at the expense of the Lib Dems.

[Logical]

A redux of 2016 in Scotland and Wales but a 2019 rerun in England.

[beesley]

'Tory sources' say they believe they can now win the London mayoralty. That would be odd.

That certainly a case of them putting the cart before the horse. Northing suggests the Conservatives are gaining in Remain/Globalized areas, in fact their falling back in some like Cambridge. Jaichind's chart basically has the full story.

Yes. Low turnout probably favours the Tories, but I think it'll mean a good Khan victory rather than a landslide.

Tories hold West Central by a couple of percentage points.

[Geoffrey Howe]

'Tory sources' say they believe they can now win the London mayoralty. That would be odd.

That certainly a case of them putting the cart before the horse. Northing suggests the Conservatives are gaining in Remain/Globalized areas, in fact their falling back in some like Cambridge. Jaichind's chart basically has the full story.

Yes. Low turnout probably favours the Tories, but I think it'll mean a good Khan victory rather than a landslide.

Tories hold West Central by a couple of percentage points.

Yep I can see on London Elects, but no numbers there. Do you have the margin?

[Geoffrey Howe]

'Tory sources' say they believe they can now win the London mayoralty. That would be odd.

That certainly a case of them putting the cart before the horse. Northing suggests the Conservatives are gaining in Remain/Globalized areas, in fact their falling back in some like Cambridge. Jaichind's chart basically has the full story.

Yes. Low turnout probably favours the Tories, but I think it'll mean a good Khan victory rather than a landslide.

Tories hold West Central by a couple of percentage points.

Yep I can see on London Elects, but no numbers there. Do you have the margin?

2205 (53713 to 51508).

Wow that's close.
Do you have the percentages? (I can't find on London Elects or BBC)