English mega-local elections, 2021

[Oryxslayer]

Conservative's have gained and held enough to win overall control of Nuneaton & Bedworth, last controlled in 2008. Ten flips from Labour to Conservative.

Labour have unsurprisingly held Newcastle. 2 losses to Indies no other changes. Labour generally gained votes in the city at the expense of the Lib-Dems, but their seats were safer.

[Oryxslayer]

Southend-on-Sea in Essex remains at No overall Controll with the Tories as the largest party. Lab gained 1, Tories 3, all from Independents.

Conservatives gain Harlow from Lab. Seven flips from Labour to the Conservatives.

Scandal-tarred Labour against the odds have held Sunderland. Tons of losses to all parties and their majority is near entirely dependent on the two thirds of the council that were not up for reelection.

The 2016 South Tyneside delegation was 100% Only 6/54 councilors before today were not Labour - and 5 were Indies. This has not dramatically changed, 4 Labour losses - 1 to Conservatives, 2 to Greens, 1 to Indies.

Labour hold Rochdale outside Manchester. No changes whatsoever.

Colchester remains in No Overall Control, and the Lab + Lib-Dem + Greens still have 2 more seats than the Conservatives. Some reshuffling under the hood, but the end result is one Green gain and one Lib-Dem loss.  

No net Changes in Gateshead. Cons remain on 0 seats in this part of the northeast.

Conservative hold in Reddich, gaining all 7 of the Labour seats up for election.

Conservative hold in Thurrock , interesting net changes under the hood with some Labour pickups and losses, but the overall results is Six flips from UKIP to Conservatives. UKIP did well her previously so this is similar to the northeast.

[Oryxslayer]

Doncaster mayor R1.

[Oryxslayer]

Stockport remains under No Overall Control. This is more a Lib-Dem/Labour fight, and there is a small amount of reshuffling that has seen the council get its first Green. This time is Lib-Dems in first place.

Labour have held Oldham outside Manchester. There are notable Labour losses here to the Conservatives and Independents unlike in neighboring Rochdale where no net seats changed hands.  
Rochford is a Tory hold. Conservatives make gains at the expense of the regions few Green Councilors and UKIP.

Northumberland has flipped from no control (Conservative Minority) and now has a Conservative Majority. The story here is interesting. Conservatives ended up netting only 1 seat despite picking up six Labour seats in the Blythe Valley region. Labour flipped three Conservative seats to the West of Newcastle, aka where the remain voters are, and two Greens flipped Troy seats in the rural Northwest.

[Geoffrey Howe]

Do we have any quantitative data on turnout? That's usually the first thing known; after all you can get it from the voter rolls they cross out when you come to vote.

[Cassius]

Labour lose 11/14 seats in Dudley. Some horrifying results for them in the West Midlands.

[mileslunn]

Labour lose 11/14 seats in Dudley. Some horrifying results for them in the West Midlands.

Pretty much all the places Labour is losing in are places they lost in last general election so more re-enforces what happened in 2019 was no fluke but part of a larger trend.  I think Labour long term needs to figure out a way to do better in the suburban areas to offset this, but admittedly won't be easy.  Also party has a really bad brand image and that is going to be tough to rehabilitate.  While on opposite ends of spectrum, UK Labour and Canadian Tories have a lot in common as both perpetual losers, cannot figure out what they stand for, and keep on drifting further and further away from mainstream voters.

[Property Representative of the Harold Holt Swimming Centre]

Labour lose 11/14 seats in Dudley. Some horrifying results for them in the West Midlands.

Pretty much all the places Labour is losing in are places they lost in last general election so more re-enforces what happened in 2019 was no fluke but part of a larger trend.  I think Labour long term needs to figure out a way to do better in the suburban areas to offset this, but admittedly won't be easy.  Also party has a really bad brand image and that is going to be tough to rehabilitate.  While on opposite ends of spectrum, UK Labour and Canadian Tories have a lot in common as both perpetual losers, cannot figure out what they stand for, and keep on drifting further and further away from mainstream voters.

A lot of the bad results from overnight are from suburban areas.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Do we have any quantitative data on turnout? That's usually the first thing known; after all you can get it from the voter rolls they cross out when you come to vote.

About normal for local elections, as far as I can tell. Turnouts in the 40s in some wards, down into the low 20s in others, but usually somewhere in between. My guess is that the general pattern probably skews more elderly than normal (and normal for local elections is more elderly than the general electorate) because of presumed increases in postal voting (which older people are more likely to default to) and because vaccinated people will have been more comfortable in person.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

A lot of the bad results from overnight are from suburban areas.

Including nearly all of the area covered by Dudley council, as it happens.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Labour lose 11/14 seats in Dudley. Some horrifying results for them in the West Midlands.

Still, that's better than the GE when there's no way that they'll have won so much as a single ward there.

[vileplume]

Stockport remains under No Overall Control. This is more a Lib-Dem/Labour fight, and there is a small amount of reshuffling that has seen the council get its first Green. This time is Lib-Dems in first place.

Labour have held Oldham outside Manchester. There are notable Labour losses here to the Conservatives and Independents unlike in neighboring Rochdale where no net seats changed hands.  
Rochford is a Tory hold. Conservatives make gains at the expense of the regions few Green Councilors and UKIP.

Northumberland has flipped from no control (Conservative Minority) and now has a Conservative Majority. The story here is interesting. Conservatives ended up netting only 1 seat despite picking up six Labour seats in the Blythe Valley region. Labour flipped three Conservative seats to the West of Newcastle, aka where the remain voters are, and two Greens flipped Troy seats in the rural Northwest.

Funnily enough in 2/4 of the Tory gains in Oldham, they received less than 10% last time these wards were fought back in 2019. St. James is likely because the Lib Dem vote (they were in a decent 2nd back then) was likely an anti-Labour vote and when it collapsed it coalesced around the Tories. Medlock Vale by contrast is likely Asian/Muslim politics, it's really not uncommon for the Tories to do stunningly well in these types of areas in local elections if they run the right community candidate. The Tories have been known to manage more than 30% of the vote in local elections in areas as monolithically Labour as *East Ham* when they run a well connected candidate with deep local ties.

[Skye]

So when can we expect results for the London mayoral race?

[Geoffrey Howe]

So when can we expect results for the London mayoral race?

Saturday I think.

[beesley]

So when can we expect results for the London mayoral race?

They've begun counting but no final results for the Mayor or the Assembly until tomorrow evening.

[Pilchard]

The Conservatives have lost their majority in Cambridgeshire - the Lib Dems have made plenty of gains in the heavily remain-voting Cambridge commuter villages in South Cambridgeshire as well as in Ely. Labour gained a couple of seats off the Lib Dems in Cambridge itself, and a couple of consolation gains for the Tories from the Lib Dems in Huntingdonshire.

2017 result: Con 36, LD 15, Lab 7, St Neots Independent 2, Independent 1
New council: Con 28, LD 20, Lab 9, St Neots Independent 2, Independent 2

[beesley]

The Conservatives have lost their majority in Cambridgeshire - the Lib Dems have made plenty of gains in the heavily remain-voting Cambridge commuter villages in South Cambridgeshire as well as in Ely. Labour gained a couple of seats off the Lib Dems in Cambridge itself, and a couple of consolation gains for the Tories from the Lib Dems in Huntingdonshire.

2017 result: Con 36, LD 15, Lab 7, St Neots Independent 2, Independent 1
New council: Con 28, LD 20, Lab 9, St Neots Independent 2, Independent 2

South Cambridgeshire where the Lib Dems made most of their gains was already a Lib Dem council at district level and was over 60% Remain in the referendum. Most of the area faces Cambridge.

[beesley]

It now looks like Sadiq Khan will do very well in the London Mayoral election. Do you think his coattails will flip some GLA constituencies?

I'm thinking particularly of South West (Hounslow, Kingston, Richmond) and West Central (Westminster, Kensington, Hammersmith).

Havering and Redbridge less likely I think because of the strong UKIP vote last time.

Looks to be close in West Central. Not enough of Havering and Redbridge in to form meaningful conclusions but Tories are confident.

[CumbrianLefty]

Labour lose 11/14 seats in Dudley. Some horrifying results for them in the West Midlands.

Still, that's better than the GE when there's no way that they'll have won so much as a single ward there.

Yes, its maybe worth noting that even in Labour's worst local results they aren't usually doing worse *than in the 2019 GE* - the Hartlepool byelection very much stands out in that regard.

[Oryxslayer]

Labour have not won Liverpool mayor outright, 38.5% of the vote for Labour in round 1. They are going into the runoff with Stephen Yip, and Independent. There are issues with Liverpool Labour as a local party, so this is partially a symptom of that, but Joanne Anderson will likely win in round 2.

[Geoffrey Howe]

It now looks like Sadiq Khan will do very well in the London Mayoral election. Do you think his coattails will flip some GLA constituencies?

I'm thinking particularly of South West (Hounslow, Kingston, Richmond) and West Central (Westminster, Kensington, Hammersmith).

Havering and Redbridge less likely I think because of the strong UKIP vote last time.

Looks to be close in West Central. Not enough of Havering and Redbridge in to form meaningful conclusions but Tories are confident.

Where do you read this? Uniform swing assumed it was looking marginal, but very crudely based on my interactions the Tory vote was fairly solid in my pro-EU circle.

[CumbrianLefty]

Labour have not won Liverpool mayor outright, 38.5% of the vote for Labour in round 1. They are going into the runoff with Stephen Yip, and Independent. There are issues with Liverpool Labour as a local party, so this is partially a symptom of that, but Joanne Anderson will likely win in round 2.

Is this intentional understatement?

[beesley]

Ben Houchen (Con) has won the Tees Valley Mayoral Race with 73% of the vote.

[Geoffrey Howe]

As of 1330
Khan 38 Bailey 37

Tory areas are counted first though.

[Oryxslayer]

Labour have not won Liverpool mayor outright, 38.5% of the vote for Labour in round 1. They are going into the runoff with Stephen Yip, and Independent. There are issues with Liverpool Labour as a local party, so this is partially a symptom of that, but Joanne Anderson will likely win in round 2.

Is this intentional understatement?

Anyway, Labour lost Sheffield to No Control. Greens and Lib-Dems are the gainers, and the two technically have 1 more seat than Labour. But Labour still likely to lead a minority.