English mega-local elections, 2021

[beesley]

What is the bbc link to results as they come in. I cannot seem to find it

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-56930132

Also full results for English councils here: https://t.co/laSaIRWUOf?amp=1

[Oryxslayer]

BBC's not starting their coverage until tomorrow, but Sky says will have the election special coverage starting at midnight for Hartlepool in the am.

BBC English local results page: https://www.bbc.com/news/topics/c481drqqzv7t/england-local-elections-2021

[jaichind]

BBC's not starting their coverage until tomorrow, but Sky says will have the election special coverage starting at midnight for Hartlepool in the am.

BBC English local results page: https://www.bbc.com/news/topics/c481drqqzv7t/england-local-elections-2021

So I should not expect any meaningful results to be released tonight?

[Oryxslayer]

BBC's not starting their coverage until tomorrow, but Sky says will have the election special coverage starting at midnight for Hartlepool in the am.

BBC English local results page: https://www.bbc.com/news/topics/c481drqqzv7t/england-local-elections-2021

So I should not expect any meaningful results to be released tonight?

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1390404282617323526?s=20

Generally most of the single-area stuff like the Welsh and Scottish constituencies and the councils are tomorrow, no overnight count in most places cause COVID. Multi-area things like the list seats and combined authorities on Saturday. There are press lists online if you search.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1390438316990943233?s=20

Might be a bad portent for Labour in Hartlepool if there's a near 100% transfer of the various Farage-Party voters to the Conservatives going on in the Northeast.

[LabourJersey]

https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1390438316990943233?s=20

Might be a bad portent for Labour in Hartlepool if there's a near 100% transfer of the various Farage-Party voters to the Conservatives going on in the Northeast.

Not sure if this will be the case everywhere in the North but it's certainly not great news for the Great Movement of Ours.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I would be careful about comparing percentages, though this would certainly be an indication of a 'difficult'... well it isn't a night but a few days.

Fundamentally, of course, the Labour Party remains a rather unpopular institution, its image and general brand in the gutter.* People might not mind Starmer particularly (his approvals vary, but are usually in the 'meh' range), but the party is a different matter. If it wants to be anything other than a moribund picture of self-pity living off rapidly distancing former glories, it needs to change and to be seen to have changed, to look outwards and not in. This isn't a matter of Left or Right but something more important.

_{*This isn't a factional point - not that I'm even a member these days - the roots go back beyond the 2015-20 period.}

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1390444498040274944?s=20

First flip of the night, and several other seats in Northumberland were announced. Similar trend in all - Tories benefiting from turnout and taking all of UKIP percentage.

This and other Northumberland seats announced are in the Blythe Valley Westminster seat.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1390448981772283905?s=20

Remain area council which is more a Lab/Lib-Dem fight for control. A much more muted and normal council result that the Leave-voting areas with large UKIP/Brexit/Leave Indies vote shares.

[mileslunn]

Looks like a good night for Tories and bad for Labour, but wondering how big a role UK's fast vaccine rollout and steep decline in COVID cases is playing in this.  Many want to return to normal and with that looking likely soon, I would think that should help the Tories.  Labour has a lot of work to do before they return to office, but next election is 3 years away and lots can happen between now and then.  Nonetheless it appears Labour's troubles in Red wall areas are getting worse not better so they are going to need to find a way to reverse that never mind long term may need to follow path Democrats in US did which is start winning in posh suburban seats but that might be tough.  British Tories are nowhere nearly as reactionary or right wing as GOP thus more acceptable to posh suburban types while Labour is much more ideological left wing than Democrats are thus tougher sell in posh areas.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1390453857852010500?s=20

South Tyneside last time was a 100% Labour council, so that majority is over.

[Cassius]

Reminder that we’re only seeing results from one part of the country which has its own unique culture and circumstances (as does every other part of the country. Let’s hold our horses until we get the full results before we start reading the obituary of Starmer/the Labour Party.

[OSR stands with Israel]

https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1390454173011939330?s=19

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

I have no idea why anyone would decide to extrapolate from local election results to the fortunes of a national political party and the degree to which voters approve of its leader. For instance, Labour has been in power in Sunderland since 1973 and one of its councilors (Thomas Wright) was discovered to be a pedophile last year and the council appears to have not taken action against him (?). Why wouldn't voters react nastily to this? Why wouldn't they decide "it's time for a change"?

At a fundamental level, local elections are about local issues, not about Brexit or anything like that. The few people who bother voting will vote based on whether or not they know some guy who is running, how they feel about graffiti on park benches or pick-pocketers etc.

[Continential]

Also, in Sunderland, there was a pedophilia scandal where a former Labour councilor was jailed for abusing kids.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Reminder that we’re only seeing results from one part of the country which has its own unique culture and circumstances (as does every other part of the country.

And a high proportion of results have come from a) a local authority with an administration that is... well to call it scandal plagued would be to greatly understate matters and b) part of another where a party that doesn't usually win the Westminster seat did so very recently; this quite often produces a local election afterglow of a sort that can be deceptive longer term.

Let’s hold our horses until we get the full results before we start reading the obituary of Starmer/the Labour Party.

That would be a huge error regardless, yes. This parliament alone has quite a few years to run and there will be politics beyond it. Labour has time to change how it is viewed (the pandemic robbed it of any potential chance to even start at that), and the reputations of other parties and other political actors are hardly set in stone.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Yah BBC extrapolated the results form the 2008 local results admins this is what they got :

[Cassius]

Yah BBC extrapolated the results form the 2008 local results admins this is what they got :

‘Now this is just a little bit of fun remember’s had moments before disaster.

[jaichind]

Sky news mentions the possibility of Shadow Cabinet resignations

[Oryxslayer]

Reminder that we’re only seeing results from one part of the country which has its own unique culture and circumstances (as does every other part of the country. Let’s hold our horses until we get the full results before we start reading the obituary of Starmer/the Labour Party.

Of course. I noted that we have seen the Conservatives doing well in leave strongholds, but in the marginal Remian Newcastle things are fine for Labour. Its likely to be a mixed picture, but the Remain areas arn't going to be counted until tomorrow at the earliest. We had two narratives (then a third today in the channel) competing for attention: Johnson Sleaze and the Conservative Vaccine Rollout. One issue will matter more to certain groups,  the other to others. I also suspect it won't be Labour uniformly in the south, more likely the Greens and the Lib-Dems given those councils history.  

The results in Sunderland are of course the largest because of scandal, that council could be headed for No Control though it would be difficult given only 1/3 of seats are up, but compared to that its not like there are 30% swings in neighboring Northumberland or Teesside. Local politics matters in local elections, just like in any democracy, but the national numbers form a good baseline to build your bell curve around.

[Pericles]

The vaccine rollout is the main cause. British polls are very volatile, so the vaccines would have had a strong effect on public opinion. Hold the elections a few months later and the result could easily be very different. Starmer is certainly more popular than Corbyn, but weirdly his personal ratings have crashed over the last few months and it's hard to see exactly what caused it.

[Donerail]

I am choosing to extrapolate from this local election result and will be ignoring all other data
https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1390452157137227780

[Oryxslayer]

I am choosing to extrapolate from this local election result and will be ignoring all other data
https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1390452157137227780

Good example of the scandal-driven anti-Labour movement in Sunderland that is making Labour's life even worse there than in the other Brexit-favoring parts of the Northeast. Whoever is the main opposition is benefiting.


In other news, in contrast  to the main trend in the Northeast, Labour are gaining from the opposition Lib-Dems in Newcastle. Leave/Remain divide between Newcastle and the rest of the Northeast.

EDIT: Similar to Newcastle, Colchester is also now reporting in. The urban area is looking good for Labour. Once again, the difference is the city of Colchester is a remain city, even though the Essex outlying areas are Tory and Leave heartlands.

[Matty]

Lodge park to the cons

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Me watching the results come in for Labour.