Current Electoral Prediction
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Author Topic: Current Electoral Prediction  (Read 3352 times)
Nym90
nym90
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E: -5.55, S: -2.96

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« on: June 07, 2004, 06:30:01 PM »


Nym90 199 Gustaf 191 Reaganfan 148.

Flame away. Smiley
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The Dowager Mod
texasgurl
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E: -9.48, S: -8.57

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« Reply #1 on: June 07, 2004, 06:30:51 PM »
hey give wisconsin to reaganfan!
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Nym90
nym90
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E: -5.55, S: -2.96

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« Reply #2 on: June 07, 2004, 06:32:07 PM »
Hehe, it's based on what I think would happen in real life given the current state of the race, not the way voters on the Forum will vote. Wink
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PBrunsel
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #3 on: June 07, 2004, 06:32:10 PM »
Give Iowa to Reaganfan. I am his running mate you know.
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The Dowager Mod
texasgurl
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E: -9.48, S: -8.57

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« Reply #4 on: June 07, 2004, 06:32:49 PM »
Quote from: President Nym90 on June 07, 2004, 06:32:07 PM
Hehe, it's based on what I think would happen in real life given the current state of the race, not the way voters on the Forum will vote. Wink
DOH!
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Nym90
nym90
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Posts: 16,260
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Political Matrix
E: -5.55, S: -2.96

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« Reply #5 on: June 07, 2004, 06:34:23 PM »
Iowa, as well as Ohio, would be close, but I feel Gustaf would take them narrowly, in a tight 3 way race in both states.

Reaganfan isn't running well enough nationally to carry them right now.
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Nym90
nym90
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Posts: 16,260
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Political Matrix
E: -5.55, S: -2.96

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« Reply #6 on: June 07, 2004, 06:38:14 PM »
Now that I think of it, maybe StevenNick should be blue on this map... Smiley There was no option for a 4th choice though...StevenNick would probably win several, maybe even most of, the blue states, over Reaganfan.
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PBrunsel
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #7 on: June 07, 2004, 06:38:41 PM »
Quote from: President Nym90 on June 07, 2004, 06:34:23 PM
Iowa, as well as Ohio, would be close, but I feel Gustaf would take them narrowly, in a tight 3 way race in both states.

Reaganfan isn't running well enough nationally to carry them right now.

I don't want to sound egocentric, but I think I am running well enough nationaly to take Iowa. Maybe not Ohio, but Iowa.
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Nym90
nym90
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E: -5.55, S: -2.96

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« Reply #8 on: June 07, 2004, 06:40:36 PM »
It would be close. A tossup really, but I'm like The Vorlon, I call every state, no tossups. Smiley
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Fritz
JLD
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #9 on: June 07, 2004, 06:40:42 PM »
What about StevenNick?  Doesn't he carry any states?
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Nym90
nym90
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Posts: 16,260
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Political Matrix
E: -5.55, S: -2.96

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« Reply #10 on: June 07, 2004, 06:41:46 PM »
Quote from: Secretary of Labor Fritz on June 07, 2004, 06:40:42 PM
What about StevenNick?  Doesn't he carry any states?

Just explained that. Wink
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Peter
Junior Chimp
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E: -0.77, S: -7.48

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« Reply #11 on: June 07, 2004, 06:50:02 PM »
Quote from: PBrunsel on June 07, 2004, 06:38:41 PM
Quote from: President Nym90 on June 07, 2004, 06:34:23 PM
Iowa, as well as Ohio, would be close, but I feel Gustaf would take them narrowly, in a tight 3 way race in both states.

Reaganfan isn't running well enough nationally to carry them right now.

I don't want to sound egocentric, but I think I am running well enough nationaly to take Iowa. Maybe not Ohio, but Iowa.

Its just a shame that Goldie brings you down in those states
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PBrunsel
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #12 on: June 07, 2004, 06:53:26 PM »
« Edited: June 07, 2004, 06:53:45 PM by PBrunsel »
I still don't understand how I campaigned in Iowa more than a dozen times this election, I was born a raised here, I stand up for the farmer, yet Reaganfan/PBrunsel lose Iowa. It doesn't make any sence.
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Josh/Devilman88
josh4bush
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E: 3.61, S: -1.74

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« Reply #13 on: June 07, 2004, 06:55:17 PM »
North Carolina will go to Gust in real life.
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Nym90
nym90
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E: -5.55, S: -2.96

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« Reply #14 on: June 07, 2004, 06:58:53 PM »
Well, you are free to make your own prediction if you'd like, PBrunsel. Smiley

Iowa is a moderate state, and your ticket is not doing that well at the moment in the polls nationwide.

North Carolina would be close, Gustaf might win it given the split in the conservative vote. It would be another tight state.
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Josh/Devilman88
josh4bush
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E: 3.61, S: -1.74

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« Reply #15 on: June 07, 2004, 07:00:21 PM »
yep i will make my own prediction.
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PBrunsel
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #16 on: June 07, 2004, 07:00:28 PM »
« Edited: June 07, 2004, 07:00:48 PM by PBrunsel »
I don't want to make my own map. I fear it could start a riot!

I will stop griping. Sometimes I take things to far Smiley
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Nym90
nym90
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Posts: 16,260
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Political Matrix
E: -5.55, S: -2.96

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« Reply #17 on: June 07, 2004, 07:01:31 PM »
It would be an interesting race in that there would be 3 different types of swing states:

Moderately liberal states, tight between Nym90 and Gustaf.

Moderately conservative states, tight between Gustaf and Reaganfan, or Gustaf and StevenNick.

Solid Republican states, tight between StevenNick and Reaganfan.
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Nym90
nym90
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Posts: 16,260
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Political Matrix
E: -5.55, S: -2.96

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« Reply #18 on: June 07, 2004, 07:02:52 PM »
It's ok PBrunsel. I'm glad you fight for what you believe in.

For what it's worth, I had myself losing my own running mate's home state as well, though I think West Virginia would also be very close. Overall though, people vote the top of the ticket more than the #2.
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Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon
htmldon
Junior Chimp
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E: 1.03, S: -2.26

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« Reply #19 on: June 07, 2004, 07:07:32 PM »
« Edited: June 07, 2004, 07:19:11 PM by htmldon »
I think, based on the levels of support, this is likely:

Current:

Gus (Purple): 335
Nym (Red): 167
RF (Blue): 28
SN (Yellow): 8


Before the exit of States:

Gus (Purple): 229
Nym (Red): 167
States (Green): 129
SN (Yellow): 8
RF (Red): 5
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Nym90
nym90
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Posts: 16,260
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Political Matrix
E: -5.55, S: -2.96

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« Reply #20 on: June 07, 2004, 07:12:31 PM »
Well, the race seems to be pretty close between Gustaf and I in most polls, and party registration numbers are very competitive. We'll see what happens though. Smiley

I might have been a little generous to the more conservative candidates, I dunno.
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PBrunsel
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #21 on: June 07, 2004, 07:18:04 PM »
Josh, Gustaf would win Iowa by a tainted 120 votes if he would win it at all.
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Nym90
nym90
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Posts: 16,260
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Political Matrix
E: -5.55, S: -2.96

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« Reply #22 on: June 07, 2004, 07:24:09 PM »
Ooh, the UAC machine is vote tampering in Iowa? Shocked
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PBrunsel
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #23 on: June 07, 2004, 07:24:52 PM »
Quote from: President Nym90 on June 07, 2004, 07:24:09 PM
Ooh, the UAC machine is vote tampering in Iowa? Shocked

Yes, they are scurrilous! Smiley
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Josh/Devilman88
josh4bush
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E: 3.61, S: -1.74

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« Reply #24 on: June 07, 2004, 07:42:24 PM »
This is what I think would happen.



Gust-197
NYM-196
RF- 145
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