GA (Gravis) - Ossoff +3, Warnock +2

[Roll Roons]

https://gravismarketing.com/georgia-poll-results/

Ossoff leads Perdue 50-47, Warnock leads Loeffler 49-47. 3% MOE.

Some weird crosstabs - Perdue and Loeffler each getting 15% of the black vote? Massive ticket splitting among Asians?

[wbrocks67]

Overall toplines don't look terribly out of step. Again, either way this is like a 0-3 pt race in either direction, but judging from everything we've seen up to this point, a 2/3 pt Dem win would not be unexpected, given the apparent Dem enthusiasm/strong GOTV and Trumps antics/depressed R vote

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Great news🌊🌊🌊 wave insurance, I got my prediction right when I correctly predicted both Ossoff and Warnock will win in Nov

[brucejoel99]

Interesting.

[UWS]

If Perdue and Warnock do effectively get 15 % of the African-American vote, they are advantaged. In effect, it's a 9 percentage points higher than Brian Kemp's 6 % AA support in 2018 when he narrowly won the gubernatorial election over Stacey Abrams.

https://www.cnn.com/election/2018/results/georgia/governor

[Matty]

Since when did atlas users start interpreting +3 polls as “tossup/close”?

Polls in 2012 that showed Obama +3 in Ohio made atlas correctly call the state lean/likely Obama

+3 Ohio/Iowa polls for Trump in 16 made atlas call them lean gop

So why are +3 GA senate polls being called tossup

[MT Treasurer]

Massive ticket splitting among Asians?

Perdue and Loeffler differing in their response to Young Kim's homophobia? Tester privately sharing his advice with Ossoff but not Warnock? Warnock's persuasion efforts directed at Asian Americans just being inferior to Ossoff's? Racist Asian Millennials in DeKalb County? What could it possibly be (obviously not statistical noise/small sample sizes/etc.)...?

I eagerly await the intellectually stimulating analysis explaining this striking discrepancy to me.

[Rookie Yinzer]

If Perdue and Warnock do effectively get 15 % of the African-American vote, they are advantaged. In effect, it's a 9 percentage points higher than Brian Kemp's 6 % AA support in 2018 when he narrowly won the gubernatorial election over Stacey Abrams.

https://www.cnn.com/election/2018/results/georgia/governor

They won't.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Some weird crosstabs - Perdue and Loeffler each getting 15% of the black vote? Massive ticket splitting among Asians?

Aren't Gravis's cross tabs always funky though? Or am I thinking of Emerson?

[Matty]

Isn’t is generally true that cross tabs shouldn’t be looked at? Only top line?

Sub samples are too small and cause weird results

[Holmes]

Isn’t is generally true that cross tabs shouldn’t be looked at? Only top line?

Sub samples are too small and cause weird results

Depends on the pollster, but one would argue that you shouldn’t even be looking at Gravis’s top lines.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Gingich already said that D's will win GA, should Mcconnell block 2K checks, just like Karl Rove said the objections to EC college results are a waste of time the House is in Pelosi hands

[libertpaulian]

lol polls

[emailking]

Since when did atlas users start interpreting +3 polls as “tossup/close”?

Polls in 2012 that showed Obama +3 in Ohio made atlas correctly call the state lean/likely Obama

+3 Ohio/Iowa polls for Trump in 16 made atlas call them lean gop

So why are +3 GA senate polls being called tossup

No one in this thread says that these polls are show a tossup or close result.

[MillennialModerate]

LOL if you have stock in the polling industry .... Yikes

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

LOL if you have stock in the polling industry .... Yikes

Every poll since Mcconnell blocked the Stimulus package of 2K has shown Ossoff/Warnock at 50/ Perdue and Loeffler at 45