How do you see the next British General Election going? Who wins?

[CumbrianLefty]

And the UK press was arguably the most insanely biased it has *ever* been in 2019 (which for those of us who recall what they were like in the Thatcher years, speaks for itself)

The idea they will be no different at all confronted by a Starmer-led Labour doesn't overly convince.

[cp]

And the UK press was arguably the most insanely biased it has *ever* been in 2019 (which for those of us who recall what they were like in the Thatcher years, speaks for itself)

The idea they will be no different at all confronted by a Starmer-led Labour doesn't overly convince.

Good point. They'll probably be even worse.

[Conservatopia]

Whilst the press are undoubtedly skewed towards us the broadcasters aren't.  I would be interested to know how much the newspaper bias really matters anyway.
After all if you are reading the Mail/Sun/Express/Times/Torygraph you probably aren't a Labour voter anyway.  So I kind of doubt that the biased press has as much impact as you (or they) think.

[mileslunn]

For comparing 2017 to 2019, I think there were a number of reasons for shift.

In 2017, May ran a gawd awful campaign while because no one expected Labour to win, many voted Labour more as a check against Tories and if people actually realized how well Labour would do, they wouldn't have voted for them.  In addition you had two things happen in 2017.  Much of the red wall was uneasy with Corbyn and he may have won most but underperformed.  A lot were ready to jump Tories, but disastrous campaign led to them reluctantly staying Labour so all Corbyn did was hold back the inevitable.  By same token, he was able to excite a lot of younger voters who tend to have much more negative views of Tories.  For millennials, last decade has been terrible and fact home ownership by 30 which was once the norm and now only a dream is a big reason millennials voted heavily Labour.  Home ownership vs. renter is a big predictor and millennials are much less likely to be home owners than people in past their generation.  London also is growing and many traditional Tory areas that went Labour weren't so much of Tories switching to Labour but more new voters going heavily Labour.  Most of those seats have fairly young and diverse populations.  I believe Putney is one of the youngest constituencies thus why flipped in 2019.

In 2019, fear of Corbyn actually winning and fact he was even more radical while Johnson avoided same stupid mistakes allowed him to win all the red wall seats which May would have won if election had been two weeks earlier.  Red wall seats aren't permanently lost, but with Tories taking on a more populist approach and being less a posh party while Labour being more your middle class college educated urban type party vs. blue collar, they are becoming more competitive.  Despite that, of the shift that happened, majority were not Labour to Tory.  Turnout fell and most who stayed home were Labour voters not Tory so that alone accounted for a lot of the loss.  Liberal Democrat gains came more from Labour than Tory voters while Brexit party ironically hurt Labour more than Tories.  A lot who voted Brexit party were leavers who loathed the Tories so didn't want another referendum or found Corbyn too left wing, but could not Tory.  Areas like Welsh Valleys, Barnsley, Doncaster, and Sunderland were Brexit party's best area and unlike areas that flipped, those are rock solid Labour areas that voted over 60% leave.

Since then, Tories actually haven't lost that much in polls.  Most of Labour's gains has come from Liberal Democrat voters as well as those who stayed home and new voters.  Yes some in Red Wall have swung back, but more have not than have.  While Starmer might win most red wall seats back, they would be by single digit margins and the ones that are mostly rural and swung hardest like Basseltaw and Bishop Auckland would still go Tory.  Most red wall seats that would swing back are largely smaller urban or suburban while rural are likely lost for good.  If Labour wins, it will be by gaining many traditional urban and suburban Tory seats like Chipping Barnet, Finchley and Golder's Green, Wycombe, and Rushcliffe which will cancel out rural red wall like Basseltaw and Bishop Auckland.  More urban red wall like Leigh, Redcar, mixed like Workington are ones likely to swing back.  In fact recent MRP generally showed most red wall seats with population densities above 1,000 people per square mile would flip back while most under that would stay Tory.

[CumbrianLefty]

Whilst the press are undoubtedly skewed towards us the broadcasters aren't.  I would be interested to know how much the newspaper bias really matters anyway.
After all if you are reading the Mail/Sun/Express/Times/Torygraph you probably aren't a Labour voter anyway.  So I kind of doubt that the biased press has as much impact as you (or they) think.

Nice try, however this completely ignores how they influence the broadcast media.

Which they do, massively.

[Conservatopia]

Whilst the press are undoubtedly skewed towards us the broadcasters aren't.  I would be interested to know how much the newspaper bias really matters anyway.
After all if you are reading the Mail/Sun/Express/Times/Torygraph you probably aren't a Labour voter anyway.  So I kind of doubt that the biased press has as much impact as you (or they) think.

Nice try, however this completely ignores how they influence the broadcast media.

Which they do, massively.

That's fair. I hate biased media as much as the next man, even when it's biased in my favour.
But are you sure this bias is really that widespread and has that much impact on Labour?

I mean look as how the media lionised Remain and then the Lib Dems and then Change UK.  Remember how they turned out?

[CumbrianLefty]

Whilst the press are undoubtedly skewed towards us the broadcasters aren't.  I would be interested to know how much the newspaper bias really matters anyway.
After all if you are reading the Mail/Sun/Express/Times/Torygraph you probably aren't a Labour voter anyway.  So I kind of doubt that the biased press has as much impact as you (or they) think.

Nice try, however this completely ignores how they influence the broadcast media.

Which they do, massively.

That's fair. I hate biased media as much as the next man, even when it's biased in my favour.
But are you sure this bias is really that widespread and has that much impact on Labour?

Yes, and yes. And it reached genuinely insane levels at the last GE.

Of course, what you say about Change UK is nonetheless quite true and fair - but what that arguably shows is that media support isn't enough *in the absence of literally anything else*

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Whilst the press are undoubtedly skewed towards us the broadcasters aren't.  I would be interested to know how much the newspaper bias really matters anyway.
After all if you are reading the Mail/Sun/Express/Times/Torygraph you probably aren't a Labour voter anyway.  So I kind of doubt that the biased press has as much impact as you (or they) think.

Eh lot of people read the tabloids even if they aren't that politically engaged. There's the famous statistics that there are more Labour Voters who read the Daily Mail than read the Guardian.

[CumbrianLefty]

Though actual "dead tree" newspaper sales are still on a relentless decline.

Unfortunately, the possible beneficial effects of that on political discourse are lessened not just by the already mentioned way they influence the broadcast media (which has, if anything, *increased* in recent years) but they way their headlines still blare at people from supermarkets and petrol stations.

Make them like the old porn mags, sold from "beneath the counter" to consenting adults only

[Serenity Now]

Though actual "dead tree" newspaper sales are still on a relentless decline.

Unfortunately, the possible beneficial effects of that on political discourse are lessened not just by the already mentioned way they influence the broadcast media (which has, if anything, *increased* in recent years) but they way their headlines still blare at people from supermarkets and petrol stations.

Make them like the old porn mags, sold from "beneath the counter" to consenting adults only

I'd always though they were on the top shelf though maybe that came later.

[Blair]

I'm not sure the Media 'lionised' remain; it was just the media that remain supporters read did so.

The media when it actually reported on the Lib Dems in the last election was quite brutal as they just asked two questions- why did you support x in coalition & why do you want to overturn the referendum?

On the subject of newspapers my uncle reads the Daily Mail for the coverage of the royal family & celebrity gossip while being a lifelong socialist (and the son of a communist)

Equally I read the Times- partly for work due to their business section/ST reporting but also because their cricket coverage is good & I enjoy the obituarys/book reviews. I ignore most of the comment stuff (even the stuff I agree with) and despise their support for the anti-trans rights campaign- people's media comsumption is very weird!

[Hnv1]

Hung parliament.

[CumbrianLefty]

I'm not sure the Media 'lionised' remain; it was just the media that remain supporters read did so.

The media when it actually reported on the Lib Dems in the last election was quite brutal as they just asked two questions- why did you support x in coalition & why do you want to overturn the referendum?

On the subject of newspapers my uncle reads the Daily Mail for the coverage of the royal family & celebrity gossip while being a lifelong socialist (and the son of a communist)

Equally I read the Times- partly for work due to their business section/ST reporting but also because their cricket coverage is good & I enjoy the obituarys/book reviews. I ignore most of the comment stuff (even the stuff I agree with) and despise their support for the anti-trans rights campaign- people's media comsumption is very weird!

Personally speaking, the Times forfeited any residual respect with its basically completely invented "SCARY MUSLAMICS ARE COMING TO TAKE AWAY YOUR CHILDREN!!" front page, for which it has faced literally zero sanction (I would have forcibly shut it down for a significant period)

[Angel of Death]

Is there a significant truth to the notion that the media is now giving the Scottish independence movement the Corbyn treatment?

[CumbrianLefty]

Is there a significant truth to the notion that the media is now giving the Scottish independence movement the Corbyn treatment?

Perhaps no more so than usual, the London media especially have never been its friends.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

I kind of doubt a majority of 80, even granting the one-off Brexit factor, will be overturned in a single election. A competent Conservative campaign should be able to keep enough voters who've stuck with them in 2017 and 2019.

That said, the Labour leadership seems to have learnt its lesson and has the right strategy for once. And the Tories seem complacent and are falling back on old bad habits in government. So I'm being given hope against hope.

[CumbrianLefty]

I kind of doubt a majority of 80, even granting the one-off Brexit factor, will be overturned in a single election

It has happened before.

And its quite possible to argue 2019 wasn't a "normal" election in significant respects anyway.

Of course the Tories might well win again, but if they do it won't be simply down to inertia because the previous majority was "too big".

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Larger majorities have been cleaned out in one go, and this was when the electorate was significantly less volatile. When only fairly small minorities identify with individual parties and when not even all of those people are unconditionally loyal, the range of possible outcomes is vast. Recently that reality has mostly (though not exclusively) been to Labour's disadvantage, but there's no reason to believe it must always be so.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

hot take: Boris will not even be a candidate (feel free to mockingly quote this in twenty years when he is some kind of insane PM for life)

[Alcibiades]

hot take: Boris will not even be a candidate (feel free to mockingly quote this in twenty years when he is some kind of insane PM for life)

Because of the rumour he has not fully regained his stamina after his bout with Covid, or because he'll be removed for political reasons?

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

hot take: Boris will not even be a candidate (feel free to mockingly quote this in twenty years when he is some kind of insane PM for life)

Because of the rumour he has not fully regained his stamina after his bout with Covid, or because he'll be removed for political reasons?

The latter: I think he has Kevin Rudd syndrome. His main power comes from being a well-liked amiable fun uncle (or at least being percieved in that manner) which overcomes the fact that people in his orbit tend to personally dislike him and seek any excuse to rid themselves of him. He doesn't even start with Rudd's insane poll numbers, although he certainly has Rudd's insane everything else. Once (if) a significant poll deficit opens up against Labour the knives will come out with ease.

Either that or he'll go out like that French Third Republic President who died of a heart attack in the middle of a fellatio session with his mistress.

[CumbrianLefty]

I think the former reason might also have something to it tbh.

[Conservatopia]

I'd put the chances at 50-50.  Sure there are loads of Tories who think he's rubbish.  There are even many that think he should go.  But there is no clear replacement waiting in the wings.  Gove seems to have had his chance and Patel and Raab are both from the Right so would compete over the same lane.  The more centrist candidate has won every contest since at least Howard and yet there is no obvious centrist waiting.

Rishi Sunak might seem like he checks all the boxes but (for now) he is intensely loyal to Boris and his approvals will fade soon anyway.

[CumbrianLefty]

Indeed, they are already starting to decline - from admittedly a very high level.

Which leaves the personal questions about BoJo - not just if he has fully recovered from his brush with death (or, perhaps, ever will) but the background chatter that he is bored and wants more money.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

I think Starmer will win, people are tired of the conservatives and so long as he is able to present a competent vision without the drama of Corbyn-Era Labour he'll be fine. I think a conservative leadership challenge is an irrelevant factor because

• The conservative membership(which is tiny and skews to extremes) is incredibly angry meaning that the wrong candidate of the two presented can easily win if they wanna tap into that anger
• Party games and prime ministers leaving is what has tired people with the Tories, and none of them have the presence to compete with Starmer