How do you see the next British General Election going? Who wins?

[Lechasseur]

I was talking to one of my colleagues at work, who's an English Labour supporter, a couple of weeks back, and I asked him if he thought Labour were going to win the next election.

He told me that, as much as he dislikes Boris and all, and even with Covid, he thinks the Tories will stick around in power a while longer.

Do you think that's a serious possibility? Or do you think he's just being overly pessimistic?

[CumbrianLefty]

This really *is* an instance of "its still far too early to say".

Seriously, ask me in about 18 months and I might at least be able to tentatively suggest something.

[brucejoel99]

I've always had a gut feeling that 2019 will prove to be a unique election which created a false sense of Tory strength in many seats & that 2024 will therefore be easier than conventional wisdom suggests, & that gut feeling hasn't gone away. But yeah, as CumbrianLeftie makes clear, it's a long ways down the road. The current polling will inevitably slip back a bit, especially since the Tories didn't end up completely f**king Brexit up with a full-on no-deal. The first real test will be the local elections later this year.

[Conservatopia]

I think as things currently stand it would be safer to bet on a Tory victory than Labour but it is also important to note that Labour does not necessarily need a majority to govern because they have more coalition/c&s options.

That being said, I am a member of the YouGov polling panel* and they released one of their fabled "MRP" polls (which have been fairly accurate in the past) today and it showed the Tories doing badly enough that Boris would lose his own seat!

There is a lot of anger at the government over its (mediocre at best) handling of the pandemic but it remains to be seen if that is lasting.

I think the most damaging attack line Labour could use is not that the Tories will "sell the NHS" but that they are as incompetent as their caricatures in Spitting Image.

* as well as Opinium and Survation. I would recommend any other English posters join too - its interesting, easy and they pay you. I think I have earned about £160 all together just answering about one survey a day!

[CumbrianLefty]

This latest MRP survey is by Focaldata, not YouGov.

[thumb21]

I could see anything from the Tories staying in power on a smaller majority to a more split parliament where Labour gets into power with SNP/Lib Dem and its too early to say in what direction we are heading. There has been decent polling for Labour, both on a national level and in the seats they lost in the "red wall" suggesting that Labour is regaining strength across the board and a lot of people who couldn't vote Labour in 2019 are starting to come back. But, the Tories could easily repair some of the support they've lost especially as (hopefully) the pandemic calms down, they have an advantage in vote efficiency meaning that they only need to lead by 4-5 points to likely get a majority.

Not to mention that there is a possibility (although it's probably been overestimated), that someone else is Prime Minister by 2024 which could also change a lot of things.

[cp]

Yes, yes, it's all still too early to say and there's everything from a Lab majority to a Tory majority to play for.

That said, I'm highly pessimistic about Labour's chances the next time out. They are still structurally disadvantaged by the electoral system, particularly with most of Scotland likely out of reach. The party is still quite divided about what direction it wants to go in, even if those cleavages are muted at the moment due to the pandemic, and Starmer's not really developed much of a leadership profile besides being an unthreatening man in a suit.

Also, I'm baffled at the apparently conventional wisdom that Johnson will step down or is somehow an electoral liability. Despite our fervent wishes, his shtick shows no sign of getting old; by some measures he's actually *more* approved of now than he was on the eve of the 2019 election. He's clearly got political capital and goodwill to spend with the EU transition period over and the COVID vaccine underway. Unless his party sees a staggering blow to its standing (remember, Theresa May wasn't given the boot until the devastating 2019 EU election results) I don't see him going anywhere.

Bluntly, if the Tories weren't turfed out of office in 2017 for austerity and Brexit with a weak leader facing an unexpectedly popular insurgent opposition leader, they're pretty likely to survive with a stronger leader facing a dud with those two acrimonious policies put behind them.

[Blair]

There are also two unknowns; a new set of boundaries for the seats & talk of changes to the funding limits for campaigns- both on paper benefit the conservatives, especially the later. The party is so weak in parts of the country that they have to pay people to hand out their leaflets.

The next election is at best going to be a chance for Labour to recover ground; both in marginal seats it won in 2017 but then lost in 2019 & in seats that they lost for the first time in a generation.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

General direction of travel and various other indicators are pretty dire for the government, but not only is it too early to be sure, it's even too early to think about the question.

[mileslunn]

Way too early to say.  Probably biggest challenge Tories have is they have been in power for 14 years and generally longer a party is in power, the more the desire for change and swings can happen.  Still Tories do have some advantages and disadvantages.

Tory advantages: Tories have a much more efficient vote and redistribution likely to help so they can lose the popular vote and still win more seats while only need a 2-3 point national lead to win a majority.  Rishni Sunak is very popular and if BoJo becomes too much of a liability, I could see party changing leaders which has seemed to work well for them. 

Labour advantages: Labour winning a majority is very unlikely for simple reason is without Scotland, I don't see how they get one, whereas Tories don't need Scotland.  But at same time since they have more allies, as long as Tories + Irish unionist parties get less than half the seats, Labour will likely be able to form government even if they win fewer seats than Tories as SNP would likely back a Labour government and even Liberal Democrats have signaled more open to a Labour than Tory.

Still election is such a long ways away that at this point making predictions is a fool's errand.

[EastAnglianLefty]

Also, I'm baffled at the apparently conventional wisdom that Johnson will step down or is somehow an electoral liability. Despite our fervent wishes, his shtick shows no sign of getting old; by some measures he's actually *more* approved of now than he was on the eve of the 2019 election. He's clearly got political capital and goodwill to spend with the EU transition period over and the COVID vaccine underway. Unless his party sees a staggering blow to its standing (remember, Theresa May wasn't given the boot until the devastating 2019 EU election results) I don't see him going anywhere.

Bluntly, if the Tories weren't turfed out of office in 2017 for austerity and Brexit with a weak leader facing an unexpectedly popular insurgent opposition leader, they're pretty likely to survive with a stronger leader facing a dud with those two acrimonious policies put behind them.

The part being missed out here is that Starmer is ahead on the preferred PM question with most of the pollsters, which is often more predictive than the headline polling figures. That didn't happen regularly with any previous leader going back to about 2007. Undoubtedly his image isn't much more developed than 'unthreatening man in a suit', but if it holds - and that's a big if - then that might be enough.

[CumbrianLefty]

Way too early to say.  Probably biggest challenge Tories have is they have been in power for 14 years and generally longer a party is in power, the more the desire for change and swings can happen.  Still Tories do have some advantages and disadvantages.

Tory advantages: Tories have a much more efficient vote and redistribution likely to help so they can lose the popular vote and still win more seats while only need a 2-3 point national lead to win a majority.  Rishni Sunak is very popular and if BoJo becomes too much of a liability, I could see party changing leaders which has seemed to work well for them. 

Labour advantages: Labour winning a majority is very unlikely for simple reason is without Scotland, I don't see how they get one, whereas Tories don't need Scotland.  But at same time since they have more allies, as long as Tories + Irish unionist parties get less than half the seats, Labour will likely be able to form government even if they win fewer seats than Tories as SNP would likely back a Labour government and even Liberal Democrats have signaled more open to a Labour than Tory.

Still election is such a long ways away that at this point making predictions is a fool's errand.

But that at least is the sort of thing that can, and indeed does, change over time.

Labour had a similar "built in advantage" for a while after 1997 (indeed it started in 1992)

[cp]

Also, I'm baffled at the apparently conventional wisdom that Johnson will step down or is somehow an electoral liability. Despite our fervent wishes, his shtick shows no sign of getting old; by some measures he's actually *more* approved of now than he was on the eve of the 2019 election. He's clearly got political capital and goodwill to spend with the EU transition period over and the COVID vaccine underway. Unless his party sees a staggering blow to its standing (remember, Theresa May wasn't given the boot until the devastating 2019 EU election results) I don't see him going anywhere.

Bluntly, if the Tories weren't turfed out of office in 2017 for austerity and Brexit with a weak leader facing an unexpectedly popular insurgent opposition leader, they're pretty likely to survive with a stronger leader facing a dud with those two acrimonious policies put behind them.

The part being missed out here is that Starmer is ahead on the preferred PM question with most of the pollsters, which is often more predictive than the headline polling figures. That didn't happen regularly with any previous leader going back to about 2007. Undoubtedly his image isn't much more developed than 'unthreatening man in a suit', but if it holds - and that's a big if - then that might be enough.

So, that isn't really true at all. Starmer's been ahead in a handful of preferred PM polls in the past few months and behind in others. He's got about the same ratio of leads as Corbyn had in mid-2017, much of which is a function of Starmer garnering much larger 'don't know' responses than Johnson does. Like I said: he's a cypher.

More relevantly, the Tories will have the benefit of a nearly completely compliant mainstream press. Novara and DoubleDown aside, the Tories will face no meaningfully critical press except the Guardian, the readership of which is little more than London-centric LD/Lab-right 'swing' voters these days.

General direction of travel and various other indicators are pretty dire for the government, but not only is it too early to be sure, it's even too early to think about the question.

I'm curious what indicators you mean.

[OSR stands with Israel]

A slim Tory majority , or a Tory minority that is very close to hitting a majority

[Alcibiades]

Yes, yes, it's all still too early to say and there's everything from a Lab majority to a Tory majority to play for.

That said, I'm highly pessimistic about Labour's chances the next time out. They are still structurally disadvantaged by the electoral system, particularly with most of Scotland likely out of reach. The party is still quite divided about what direction it wants to go in, even if those cleavages are muted at the moment due to the pandemic, and Starmer's not really developed much of a leadership profile besides being an unthreatening man in a suit.

Also, I'm baffled at the apparently conventional wisdom that Johnson will step down or is somehow an electoral liability. Despite our fervent wishes, his shtick shows no sign of getting old; by some measures he's actually *more* approved of now than he was on the eve of the 2019 election. He's clearly got political capital and goodwill to spend with the EU transition period over and the COVID vaccine underway. Unless his party sees a staggering blow to its standing (remember, Theresa May wasn't given the boot until the devastating 2019 EU election results) I don't see him going anywhere.

Bluntly, if the Tories weren't turfed out of office in 2017 for austerity and Brexit with a weak leader facing an unexpectedly popular insurgent opposition leader, they're pretty likely to survive with a stronger leader facing a dud with those two acrimonious policies put behind them.

See, I think Labour would have won that election if they had had a leader like Starmer, because the Tory campaign was so awful. Corbyn’s performance was only perceived as strong because he outperformed expectations so much; in absolute terms, it wasn’t that impressive.

[Antonio the Sixth]

imagine trying to predict elections 4 years away

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

imagine trying to predict elections 4 years away

There currently is an entire sub-board on this forum that is literally dedicated only to that.

[Antonio the Sixth]

imagine trying to predict elections 4 years away

There currently is an entire sub-board on this forum that is literally dedicated only to that.

Yes, and there's a reason I avoid this board (and its predecessors) like the plague. These boards should not be started until at most January of the previous year (ie a year or so before primaries start).

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

imagine trying to predict elections 4 years away

There currently is an entire sub-board on this forum that is literally dedicated only to that.

Yes, and there's a reason I avoid this board (and its predecessors) like the plague. These boards should not be started until at most January of the previous year (ie a year or so before primaries start).

I frequented the 2024 board heavily in its very early days but I've then pretty much checked out and I sense I will avoid it for a while.

[Antonio the Sixth]

imagine trying to predict elections 4 years away

There currently is an entire sub-board on this forum that is literally dedicated only to that.

Yes, and there's a reason I avoid this board (and its predecessors) like the plague. These boards should not be started until at most January of the previous year (ie a year or so before primaries start).

I frequented the 2024 board heavily in its very early days but I've then pretty much checked out and I sense I will avoid it for a while.

Fair. It's an important learning experience.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

imagine trying to predict elections 4 years away

There currently is an entire sub-board on this forum that is literally dedicated only to that.

Yes, and there's a reason I avoid this board (and its predecessors) like the plague. These boards should not be started until at most January of the previous year (ie a year or so before primaries start).

I frequented the 2024 board heavily in its very early days but I've then pretty much checked out and I sense I will avoid it for a while.

What do you MEAN you have more important things to read about than the titanic unbeatability of Unbeatable Titan Ron DeSantis?

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

imagine trying to predict elections 4 years away

There currently is an entire sub-board on this forum that is literally dedicated only to that.

Yes, and there's a reason I avoid this board (and its predecessors) like the plague. These boards should not be started until at most January of the previous year (ie a year or so before primaries start).

I frequented the 2024 board heavily in its very early days but I've then pretty much checked out and I sense I will avoid it for a while.

What do you MEAN you have more important things to read about than the titanic unbeatability of Unbeatable Titan Ron DeSantis?

Yes, Ron DeSantis may win a 50 state landslide (plus DC!) in 2024, but I have more important things to read. Like a certain short story

[Pericles]

Keir Starmer so far seems to be doing a good job, coming across as credible and has more of a relentless focus on winning than Miliband or Corbyn. The Tories have never been super popular, and people might well be tired of them after 14 years as their baggage continues to accumulate. Labour seems to be in a similar situation to the Tories after 2005, so they might be able to achieve a similar result to Cameron in 2010 and win without an overall majority. It is too early to tell though, especially since the British electorate has been pretty volatile.

[cp]

Yes, yes, it's all still too early to say and there's everything from a Lab majority to a Tory majority to play for.

That said, I'm highly pessimistic about Labour's chances the next time out. They are still structurally disadvantaged by the electoral system, particularly with most of Scotland likely out of reach. The party is still quite divided about what direction it wants to go in, even if those cleavages are muted at the moment due to the pandemic, and Starmer's not really developed much of a leadership profile besides being an unthreatening man in a suit.

Also, I'm baffled at the apparently conventional wisdom that Johnson will step down or is somehow an electoral liability. Despite our fervent wishes, his shtick shows no sign of getting old; by some measures he's actually *more* approved of now than he was on the eve of the 2019 election. He's clearly got political capital and goodwill to spend with the EU transition period over and the COVID vaccine underway. Unless his party sees a staggering blow to its standing (remember, Theresa May wasn't given the boot until the devastating 2019 EU election results) I don't see him going anywhere.

Bluntly, if the Tories weren't turfed out of office in 2017 for austerity and Brexit with a weak leader facing an unexpectedly popular insurgent opposition leader, they're pretty likely to survive with a stronger leader facing a dud with those two acrimonious policies put behind them.

See, I think Labour would have won that election if they had had a leader like Starmer, because the Tory campaign was so awful. Corbyn’s performance was only perceived as strong because he outperformed expectations so much; in absolute terms, it wasn’t that impressive.

I doubt it. Corbyn's overperformance of expectations was directly tied to how unlike every other Labour leader before him. Particularly when you consider who ran against Corbyn in the 2015 race and the 2016 coup attempt, it's pretty difficult to avoid the conclusion that Corbyn was one of a kind and, improbably, people really responded to him once they got an unmediated look. He also managed to get more votes and a greater percentage of the vote than anyone since Blair in 2001. Weirdly, it was the fact that the admittedly abysmal Tory campaign that year *over*performed that saved them.

Keir Starmer so far seems to be doing a good job, coming across as credible and has more of a relentless focus on winning than Miliband or Corbyn. The Tories have never been super popular, and people might well be tired of them after 14 years as their baggage continues to accumulate. Labour seems to be in a similar situation to the Tories after 2005, so they might be able to achieve a similar result to Cameron in 2010 and win without an overall majority. It is too early to tell though, especially since the British electorate has been pretty volatile.

Starmer's certainly being portrayed that way in the non-hack press. I don't really see how he's more relentless in his focus on winning, though (has *any* leader of an opposition party *not* been focused on winning the next election?). If anything, there's an argument to be made that, unlike his recent predecessors, his main focus has been party management. He's avoided releasing any policies or engaging with any voter outreach (as in, setting up working groups in Labour to organize it for later; obviously there's no point in door knocking right now) and his only major eye-catching moves not driven by outside events have been his handling of the EHRC fallout.

I really want the Tories to lose (actually I want them obliterated forever, but that's my damage), but them being not super popular and in power for over a decade didn't stop them from winning a majority before. When you've got a compliant press, a fractured opposition, and the in-built supplication to small-c conservative appeals to authority that British political culture does, it makes it hard to lose.

[Oryxslayer]

Yes, yes, it's all still too early to say and there's everything from a Lab majority to a Tory majority to play for.

That said, I'm highly pessimistic about Labour's chances the next time out. They are still structurally disadvantaged by the electoral system, particularly with most of Scotland likely out of reach. The party is still quite divided about what direction it wants to go in, even if those cleavages are muted at the moment due to the pandemic, and Starmer's not really developed much of a leadership profile besides being an unthreatening man in a suit.

Also, I'm baffled at the apparently conventional wisdom that Johnson will step down or is somehow an electoral liability. Despite our fervent wishes, his shtick shows no sign of getting old; by some measures he's actually *more* approved of now than he was on the eve of the 2019 election. He's clearly got political capital and goodwill to spend with the EU transition period over and the COVID vaccine underway. Unless his party sees a staggering blow to its standing (remember, Theresa May wasn't given the boot until the devastating 2019 EU election results) I don't see him going anywhere.

Bluntly, if the Tories weren't turfed out of office in 2017 for austerity and Brexit with a weak leader facing an unexpectedly popular insurgent opposition leader, they're pretty likely to survive with a stronger leader facing a dud with those two acrimonious policies put behind them.

See, I think Labour would have won that election if they had had a leader like Starmer, because the Tory campaign was so awful. Corbyn’s performance was only perceived as strong because he outperformed expectations so much; in absolute terms, it wasn’t that impressive.

I doubt it. Corbyn's overperformance of expectations was directly tied to how unlike every other Labour leader before him. Particularly when you consider who ran against Corbyn in the 2015 race and the 2016 coup attempt, it's pretty difficult to avoid the conclusion that Corbyn was one of a kind and, improbably, people really responded to him once they got an unmediated look. He also managed to get more votes and a greater percentage of the vote than anyone since Blair in 2001. Weirdly, it was the fact that the admittedly abysmal Tory campaign that year *over*performed that saved them.

I'm just gonna hop in and note that this is only one of the two major takes from 2017, and that it shouldn't be opposed to the other. They aren't tried to ideological positions after all. The fact that some (not all obviously) still defend your position as if its the absolute truth and refuse to accept the others is part of the reason why Labour is in its present position and having to focus in steering the ship rather than firing her cannons at the enemy.

The first take, as you described, is that Corbyn was the reason for the shock of 2017. Corbyn was the antithesis to the drab May, which made him the man for the moment. The data here is as you said, high turnout and how Corbyn started to climb and narrow VS May in the preferred PM polls.

The second take is that Corbyn had some effect, but he was only a surfer riding a wave. This argument goes that the large Tory leads in polling up until the last two weeks were why the election went the way that it did. Everyone, including Labour, expected Labour to lose the election, which therefore meant the election became a Tory affair. As May bungled the campaign, a 'midterm' environment emerged where voters could vote Labour to check the expected Tory govt, and there was no danger because May should still win and Labour would still lose. The arguers also then point to 2019, and how when Corbyn actively campaigned for the PM seat and forced voters to weigh a potential Labour govt vs the Tory one, the polling barely shifted. This point of view looks at how the same polls that had Labour narrowing the gap with the Conservatives in 2017 had May's approval plummeting.

Neither view is 100% correct, but some are committed to one position solely because it rose tints/undermines the one successful thing that happened to Labour under Corbyn's watch.