Canadian by-elections 2021-2022

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There were signs at the polling stations saying that voters should not cast a vote for Cynthia Lai, and if they did their votes wouldn't be counted.  So that simple math doesn't quite tell the whole picture.

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Taking a long time...

Currently:

Conservative   Ron Chhinzer   11   33.3 %
Parti Rhinocéros Party   Sébastien CoRhino   0   0.0 %
Green Party   Mary Kidnew   0   0.0 %
NDP-New Democratic Party   Julia Kole   4   12.1 %
Liberal   Charles Sousa   14   42.4 %

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Not good news for the Conservatives - this is where they need to win (or at least increase their vote share) to be in contention.  Perhaps the moderates that came before Pierre P actually were better in the GTA.

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How much "base" is there in Mississauga Lakeshore of all places?

I believe the demographics here make this the most "Conservative" of all the Mississauga ridings - so this is precisely where they need to do well.  Is there a road to victory for Poilievre without any Peel wins (other than Dufferin-Caledon)?  York (and Durham) seem like they may be easier targets for Poilievre.