Canadian by-elections 2021-2022

[Poirot]

When will Legault likely call the Marie-Victorin by-election?

Legault visited Longueuil mayor last week. Candidates have started to go door to door and meet people at the shopping center and put pics on Twitter. Maybe it will be called when people are more satisfied that restrictions have been removed and life goes more to normal. It could also be planned to be during details about the transit project.

CBC website is already talking about the byelection.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/marie-victorin-byelection-fight-1.6357437

PQ made public a poll they paid Léger to do so maybe it overestimates their number since they are the client. It was CAQ and PQ at 33%, QS and PLQ at 11%, Conservateur 8%, Climat Québec 3%.

Climat Québec is Martine Ouellet, former PQ and short time Bloc leader. PQ is running former NDP MP Pierre Natel.  The CAQ candidate is involves in the nurses union. The QS candidate ran for the Bloc in Rosemont in the last election. The parti conservateur candidate is an actress who voted PQ before, and against the sanitary rules and restrictions. Parti vert will also have a candidate.

[Poirot]

Legault has finally announced the date of the Marie-Victorin by-election, and it will be held on April 11th.

The candidates are:

Party	Candidate
Parti Québécois	Pierre Nantel
Coalition Avenir Québec	Shirley Dorismond
Québec solidaire	Shophika Vaithyanathasarma
Liberal	Émilie Nollet
Green	Alex Tyrrell
Conservative	Anne Casabonne
Climat Quebec	Martine Ouellet

Mainstreet poll of 431 people in the riding has CAQ at 43%, PQ at 36%, PLQ at 9%, PCQ 6% and QS 5%.

[Poirot]

The Mainstreet poll maybe had QS too low. I think the PQ poll had it at 10-12% like PLQ.

Last election PLQ got 15% in 4th place. QS had over 21% so losing half is a lot but younger people probably vote less in byelection. It's not a general election so there is not the pull from the overall campaign. I don't know if the candidate has links to the riding. PQ won by 700 votes with over 30% of vote share. Considering the party has lost support since then it could be difficult to win but what can make it a possibility is their candidate who is well known. The CAQ is working hard to win, sending ministers to do door knocking with the candidate, Legault doing robocalls and virtual meeting with seniors.

Some profile data:

A total of 45,558 electors have been invited to exercise their right to vote in this byelection.

According to Statistics Canada, 83.4 per cent of the riding's population reports that French is the language most often spoken at home.

Visible minorities account for 19.5 per cent of Marie-Victorin's population, of which 43.8 per cent are Black, 16.2 per cent are Latin American and 16 per cent are of Arab origin.

The average income in Marie-Victorin is lower than the Quebec standard.

[Poirot]

There is a record of 40 candidates running in the Mississauga-Lakeshore by-election.

Elections Canada says:
Forty candidates have been confirmed for the by-election currently under way in Mississauga–Lakeshore (Ontario). This is the largest number of candidates to run in any single electoral district in a federal election or by-election administered by Elections Canada.
As a result of the higher-than-usual number of candidates, Elections Canada has adapted the traditional ballot by using a two-column design. The changes maintain the ballot's standard integrity features and large font size.

The list of candidates can be found here:
https://www.elections.ca/Scripts/vis/candidates?L=e&ED=35061&EV=54&EV_TYPE=3&PROV=ON&PROVID=35&QID=-1&PAGEID=17

John Turmel is running. There are a great number of independent candidates with the same official agent including the leader of the rhinoceros party. They are protesting Trudeau's giving up on his promise of electoral reform.
https://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/national/2022-11-25/election-partielle-en-ontario/nombre-record-de-40-candidats.php