Canadian by-elections 2021-2022

[Benjamin Frank]

There is an upcoming Richmond City Council by-election here in British Columbia to replace Kelly Greene who was elected to the provincial legislature.  There will be other municipal by-elections as a result of the provincial election as well.

I gather former School Trustee and city council candidate Andy Hobbs is the center right candidate while current School Trustee Ken Hamaguchi is the center left candidate.  Not sure if the Greens are running a high profile candidate or not.

https://www.richmond-news.com/local-news/second-candidate-declares-intention-to-run-in-richmond-by-election-3145117

https://www.richmond-news.com/election-2018-archive/pro-sogi-trustee-candidates-dominate-richmond-school-board-3086219

[Benjamin Frank]

Fort Whyte Manitoba byelection is today.

[Benjamin Frank]

First poll
NDP 18
P.C 9
Liberal 7

NDP landslide!

[Benjamin Frank]

The vote count has gone down and it doesn't match the number of counted votes, there are clearly problems with counting of the outstanding polls.

[Benjamin Frank]

I'm ready for the 100-seat CAQ majority that will be won with about 40% of the vote.

The biggest win in Quebec by seats (at last in 'modern' times) was the Quebec Liberals in 1973 under Robert Bourassa winnning 102 of the then 110 seats.  The Liberals lost the subsequent election in 1976.

[Benjamin Frank]

Surrey South Provincial by-election, September 10, 2022

There was some speculation, I'm not sure how serious it was, that the NDP called the by-election on the same day as the Conservative leadership race to try to sneak their way to a victory. I'm not sure if this was meant all that seriously because it's not like anybody could actually cast a ballot in the Conservative leadership race on the day.  

Anyway, irrespective, it didn't work, and the B.C Liberals handily kept the riding which they only narrowly won in the 2020 general election. And, this is despite a strong performance by the B.C Conservative Party. For those who aren't aware, for whatever reason, the B.C Green Party has never had much of a presense in Surrey.

Prior to 2020, Surrey South had not been kind to the NDP, so this is something of a reversion to the mean.

Elenore Sturko BC Liberal Party 5,568  51.83%
Pauline Greaves BC NDP        3,221  29.99%
Harman Bhangu Conservative 1,364  12.70%
Simran Sarai BC Green Party   368  3.43%
Jason Bax Libertarian              221  2.06%
100% of total ballot boxes reported 10,742

[Benjamin Frank]

Swings:

Lib: +4.5
NDP: -13.1
Grn: -6.2

Liberal HOLD. Avg. swing: +8.8%

I didn't remember the Green Party did that well in 2020. Nevertheless, the more affluent south Surrey (as opposed to just Surrey South) is more receptive to the Green Party than either central Surrey or east Surrey is.

This can also be seen as more evidence that the Green Party is nothing more than a protest vote for a lot of people as it can be speculated that a lot of Green Party 2020 voters shifted to the B.C Conservatives.

[Benjamin Frank]

Two posts on Dave Cournoyer's twitter. First, the non serious:

https://twitter.com/TheBeaverton/status/1583122253713399808

[Benjamin Frank]

Then the serious, which fits in this thread:

https://twitter.com/BobBenzen/status/1583234524598894592


Elected in a byelection, and resigns causing a byelection.

[Benjamin Frank]

Looking at upcoming ones I have

Brooks-Medicine Hat: Probably goes for Danielle Smith as a fairly reliably Conservative one but with Alberta party leader being former mayor of Brooks and NDP having some support in Medicine Hat, its possible Smith gets under 50% and if that happens huge redflag for her.  I could only see her losing if one of two dropped out and even then simply makes more competitive.

Calgary-Heritage: Very safe Tory riding so easy Conservative win.  Be interesting if one of the UCP MLAs in Calgary unhappy with direction jumps into the federal fray.

Mississauga South: That will be first test if Poilievre is making inroads in suburbs or not.  On one hand by-elections tend to have low turnout and those in opposition more motivated to show up thus Tory edge.  But also this is type that might prefer more your Charest style of conservatism and may find Poilievre a bridge too far.

Hamilton Centre (provincial): Easy NDP win.  Yes Howarth popular here, but this is by nature an NDP stronghold.  Very strong blue collar population, but also urban central enough it is not seeing loss to right you are in some other blue collar ridings.

There is also currently one, and likely soon two vacancies in the New Brunswick legislature.

Holt confirmed that Bathurst East-Nepisiguit-Saint-Isidore MLA Denis Landry is one of the two members who will be leaving.

Landry, the longest-serving Liberal in the legislature, said last month he would run to become mayor of the new municipality of Hautes-Terres in the Acadian Peninsula next month.

Holt wouldn't name the second Liberal MLA, saying she'll let the member make the announcement next week.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/liberal-mlas-step-down-susan-holt-1.6609797

[Benjamin Frank]

No opinions on the by-elections upcoming in New Brunswick?

Also, I don't think this has been mentioned, the NDP and the Greens have nominated candidates (a while back) for the Mississauga-Lakeshore by-election.

https://www.thestar.com/local-mississauga/news/federal-election/2022/08/20/ndp-and-green-party-announce-candidates-for-upcoming-mississauga-federal-byelection.html?itm_source=parsely-api

"Julia Kole has been named the NDP candidate and Mary Kidnew has been nominated as the Green Party of Canada in the upcoming Mississauga—Lakeshore federal byelection.

Kole ran for the Ontario NDP the recent provincial election and says her party’s message was starting to root in Mississauga—Lakeshore."

Kidnew, who started the Mississauga—Lakeshore Green Party electoral district association and is a past president of the Hillcrest Ratepayers Association, says she wants take her community service in the next level.

[Benjamin Frank]

Umm, no comments? America isn't the world. I hate you all. Or, for the occassion, I hat you all.

Here. From Elections Alberta (with the exception of the censored part)
Brooks-Medicine Hat

DANIELLE SMITH UNITED CONSERVATIVE PARTY 6,923 54.5%
GWENDOLINE DIRK ALBERTA NDP 3,393 26.7%
BARRY MORIsh**tA ALBERTA PARTY 2,098 16.5%
BOB BLAYONE THE INDEPENDENCE PARTY OF ALBERTA 225 1.8%
JEEVAN MANGAT WILDROSE INDEPENDENCE PARTY OF ALBERTA 56 0.4%
Vote Total: 12,695
Elector Count: 34,532

[Benjamin Frank]

Especially regarding how the NDP might do in Red Deer.
(And maybe even Grande Prairie, but not likely Fort McMurray)

https://twitter.com/ksituan/status/1590201334833483776

[Benjamin Frank]

Wouldn't be surprised if the Alberta Party also got a fair bit of "anti-Danielle" vote.

Maybe, but keep in mind the candidate there (so not to be censored again) wasn't just the Alberta Party leader but is also the past mayor of Brooks which is about 30% of the riding's population.

[Benjamin Frank]

Just a reminder that the Kirkfield Park byelection is on Tuesday and a brand new Manitoba poll by Probe had the NDP leading the PCs province wide by 11 points 46-35 which would represent a massive 25 point swing since the last election

This is a wealthier riding that ideally the provincial Liberals could be competitive in, but it doesn't seem that way. Shame because Dougald Lamont seems to be a decent person if a little too left wing.

[Benjamin Frank]

First poll
Liberal 3
Conservative 2
NDP 1

I think this riding can be called now.

[Benjamin Frank]

First poll
Liberal 3
Conservative 2
NDP 1

I think this riding can be called now.

link?

https://enr.elections.ca/ElectoralDistricts.aspx?ed=2208&lang=e

[Benjamin Frank]

Still early but looking like a Liberal blowout
Liberal 644
Conservative 331

24 of 234 polls

[Benjamin Frank]

With just over 2/3 of the polls, the percentage gap has closed somewhat between the Liberals and the Conservatives to 51.1-35.6%.

It is possible the Conservatives will not decline significantly from 2021 when all the votes are counted.

[Benjamin Frank]

I see this hasn't been mentioned. The NDP acclaimed a young 'woke' activist to run in the provincial riding of Hamilton Centre back on November 3.

Disability activist Sarah Jama to be acclaimed as Ontario NDP candidate for Hamilton Centre
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/hamilton/hamilton-centre-mpp-ndp-candidate-sarah-jama-acclaimed-1.6618438

She's also well known for her activism, which has prompted criticism from some in the community, including current Mayor Fred Eisenberger and police.

Keep in mind that Fred Eisenberger endorsed Andrea Horwath as his successor.

On the broader point, not only do I not think that her sort of confrontational activism achieves anything positive, I suspect that most of these so-called activists don't even really care, as I think most of them are motivated by a desire for excitement, confrontation and attention far more than the serious issues involved. Of course, I don't know specifically in the case of Sarah Jama.

Still, I suspect that Marit Stiles isn't exactly thrilled to have a person with this background as the first person to run under the NDP banner during her tenure. I also question the direction the NDP might be going acclaiming a candidate like this in a very winnable riding, but also a riding where the Liberals might attempt a comeback.


The Liberals are already in a position to make a major comeback. I think the 2022 election showed that when Ontario voters vote for an opposition party, they are fine voting for the NDP (especially over the Liberals) but that very few people want the Ontario NDP in government.

The 'greenbelt' is shaping up to be a major scandal for the Doug Ford P.C. The 'greenbelt' is an area near Toronto (I think mostly Dufferin County) where the P.C government proposed massive new housing developments to address the growing population and the housing shortages.

When I first heard about it, and based on the earlier polling, when most Ontarians heard about it, it seemed to be an ideological dispute between those who favor greater density and protecting farmland, and those who favor lower density and '(sub)urban sprawl.'

Although most people, according to the polling, oppose this development, when faced with the actual choice between developing the greenbelt and having greater density in their neighborhoods, I'm not sure this would have become much of a ballot box issue.

However, it now seems that many of the planned Greenbelt developers have long standing connections with the Progressive Conservative Party, which makes it a likely major scandal and also fits into the preexisting views of Premier Doug Ford as corrupt.

So, the Liberals are already well placed to make a big comeback and the Hamilton Centre byelection could be their start, as much as its demographics favor the NDP.