Canadian by-elections 2021-2022

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Njall, how active is the Alberta Liberal Party or is it dead like I think it is?

Also, is the by-election result a good result for the Wildrose Independence Party or is it a bad one since their leader ran in it?  

I have to imagine that the Brian Jean factor hurt the WIP. If I were a right-winger who wants to see Kenney out but wouldn't vote NDP, electing Brian Jean seems like a much better way to do that than voting for a fringe party.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Legault has finally announced the date of the Marie-Victorin by-election, and it will be held on April 11th.

The candidates are:

Party	Candidate
Parti Québécois	Pierre Nantel
Coalition Avenir Québec	Shirley Dorismond
Québec solidaire	Shophika Vaithyanathasarma
Liberal	Émilie Nollet
Green	Alex Tyrrell
Conservative	Anne Casabonne
Climat Quebec	Martine Ouellet

Mainstreet poll of 431 people in the riding has CAQ at 43%, PQ at 36%, PLQ at 9%, PCQ 6% and QS 5%.

Wow, those are very bad numbers for PLQ and especially QS. QS got 22% of the vote there in 2018, to be polling 5% now is a crazy drop.

For people more familiar with QC politics, what do you think is going on there? Are left-wing voters coalescing around Nantel to stop CAQ? Or do you think this is just a flukey poll?

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Mississauga-Lakeshore is also one of the most inelastic ridings in the GTA (probably due to its wealth/Whiteness), so while it seems vulnerable on paper, it might not be. It was both the Liberals' best seat in Mississauga in the 2018 provincial election and their worst seat in the 2021 federal election.

True, though by-elections complicate things for the governing party. The Liberals aren't doing so hot right now, and it takes a lot to motivate people to vote in by-elections, especially for a governing party. A byelection in a relatively inelastic riding like this one is a game of base turnout, and that doesn't work in favour of the Liberals in the current climate.

What makes this more interesting is that, when the byelection is held, the Tories will most likely have a new leader. Trudeau could call it before, but calling this byelection in the summer would be shooting himself in the foot. In all likelihood this byelection will be in the fall, which will give the next CPC leader an opportunity to campaign along with the candidate and try out campaign material. See what sticks, what doesn't, etc. I say the "next CPC leader" with the full expectation that it will be Poilievre - and while byelections aren't always a great bellwether of what will happen in a general, it will be an opportunity for Poilievre to try out his pitch in what is very much a "Laurentian establishment"-type riding.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

For the record, it was the Liberals' third best seat in the provincial election. True to form, the results were barely any different from 2018. There was only a half a point average swing from the Liberals to the Tories, even with Sousa off the ballot.

Despite that, I think the inelasticity of the riding works in the Tories' favour in the context of a by-election.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

For the record, it was the Liberals' third best seat in the provincial election. True to form, the results were barely any different from 2018. There was only a half a point average swing from the Liberals to the Tories, even with Sousa off the ballot.

Despite that, I think the inelasticity of the riding works in the Tories' favour in the context of a by-election.

I also think both Trudeau and Poilievre bad fits for riding.  Its more your Blue Liberal/Red Tory type.  Like balanced budgets, wary of big spending, prefer lower taxes although not too low, but totally turned off by populism and culture wars.  Riding is very similar to your Tory Remain types in UK and your Romney-Biden counties.

On balance yes, but byelections are really more about who can turn out more people. Think of the November 2013 Brandon--Souris byelection - under normal circumstances that's an easy Tory win, but in late 2013 Liberals had a new leader honeymoon and were highly motivated to stick it to Harper while Conservatives were losing momentum, so the Libs came very close. Poilievre may not be a good fit for Mississauga--Lakeshore, but he's hardly a worse fit than Justin Trudeau was for a rural prairie riding like Brandon--Souris.

Point being, the CPC won't really have to worry about switching those Liberal voters over. Majority of eligible voters don't vote in by-elections, really only the most highly-motivated come out to vote, and that gives the CPC an advantage in the current context.

Edit: For what it's worth, Bryan Breuget's CPC leadership model predicts that Poilievre will get about 58% in this riding in the leadership race, to Charest's 18%. I know Bryan makes no secret about his bias towards Poilievre and against Charest, but his methodology looks pretty sound. So if that's anything to go by, at least the Conservative base in the riding looks pretty solid for a Poilievre-led CPC.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Results (prelim, excluding mail-ins):

NDP: 56.8% (+5.5)
SP: 37.0% (-9.1)
Lib: 2.6%
Buf: 2.4%
Grn: 1.2% (-1.4)

Turnout: 37.5% (-18.8)

NDP HOLD (2 party avg swing: +7.3%)
 

Applying that 2-party swing to the 2020 riding-by-riding results, you flip 6 seats from SKP to NDP - one in Prince Albert, two in Saskatoon, three in Regina. Still a huge Sask Party majority, 42-19 - but amazingly, that would still be the NDP's biggest seat haul since 2007

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

The CPC has a candidate for the Mississauga-Lakeshore byelection. His name is Ron Chhinzer, an officer in the Peel Regional Police, no political experience but a "national gang prevention expert" according to the website. Not the worst bio to run on in a riding like Mississauga-Lakeshore, but we'll have to see who the Liberals put up.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

https://www.ipolitics.ca/news/federal-byelection-in-critical-ontario-riding-will-be-a-tight-race-poll-predicts

For those of us experiencing election withdrawal, the Mississauga-Lakeshore byelection offers a ray of hope. 3-point Liberal lead in the Mississauga-Lakeshore according to Mainstreet, no surprise here considering how this riding is always so close. I still remain bullish on the Tories' chances here, because a byelection in an inelastic riding is all about turnout, and while the CPC nominated a candidate a while ago who's been actively campaigning, the Liberals are yet to nominate. But no party can take this riding for granted, the people of south Mississauga like their races close!

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

I think both Trudeau and Poilievre bad fits for Mississauga-Lakeshore but key indicators in some ways.

Trudeau:  This is more a Blue Liberal type riding so probably a lot wish Trudeau was more fiscally conservative so reluctantly vote Liberal.  If wins shows still in game but if loses depends on turnout and size of loss.

Poilievre: High number of university educated and upper middle class types so may like balanced budgets and lower taxes, but could care less about right wing populism so more a riding Charest would do well in.  If Poilievre wishes to win, he pretty much needs to win this.  If loses this in general election, at best wins a weak minority.

Still as mentioned I think Tories have slight edge simply as their supporters more motivated to show up, but wouldn't be surprised if Liberals hold riding.

While I agree is that the slight uptick in CPC support we've seen is probably not coming from places like Mississauga-Lakeshore, I'm not sure political "tribes" like the one you've described really factors into this riding's voting patterns. This riding has been within a 10-point margin for either party in every election since 2006, and that timespan has featured four Liberal and three Conservative leaders, all of whom had a different appeal, and a varying range of nationwide performances by both parties.

The better lens of looking at this riding, I would argue, is (in-)elasticity. In the 2011 federal election, this was the Liberals' second-best riding in Peel Region, and in 2015, it was their worst (not counting Dufferin-Caledon). You can look at other elections too, the point is that there are tons of stubborn Liberals and stubborn Conservatives in this riding, and Trudeau being a little too lefty and Poilievre being a little too populist is probably a very marginal factor.

Because of this inelasticity, this riding doesn't really provide that much insight into the coveted 905. The whole reason why parties obsess over the 905 is because it's a region prone to wild swings, which Lakeshore isn't. If the CPC wins this byelection, I don't think that proves Poilievre's ability to win over Liberal voters; conversely, if the Liberals hold on, nor does it prove Poilievre's inability to do so.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

And wouldn't you know it, but they got themselves the perfectest Liberal candidate for the riding...

https://globalnews.ca/news/9255533/mississauga-lakeshore-byelection-charles-sousa/

That's a solid choice by the Grits, they're definitely winning the name recognition battle now. Having a more localized race might actually be better for the Liberals, because a "referendum on Trudeau" narrative in a byelection is not what they need right now. I'd say this race went from lean CPC to toss-up with this announcement.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

It's been called for December 12. I guess Trudeau was just waiting to nominate a candidate before calling it, because it doesn't make much sense to wait all the way until the deadline

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

I was rather bullish about the CPC's chances in the Mississauga Lakeshore byelection before Sousa's nomination. Now that we're reaching the finish line, I think it will be an LPC hold.

It seems Poilievre is banking on a general election being three years away instead of going for the permanent campaign, because prolonged "permanent campaigns" tend to help the government (Tories would know, it was basically how they whittled away at the Liberal Party during the Harper years). There was also the Emergencies Act inquiry, which regardless of the inquiry's testimonies or report, was just never going to help the CPC politically, so sitting on the sidelines may have made sense.

It's damage control for the CPC, but it's not a momentum-building strategy, and we're seeing very little momentum right now. It would be a mistake for the CPC to just accept this strategy long-term. Maybe losing a winnable byelection could be a wakeup call though.

Of course, things aren't entirely going well for the government, not by a longshot. If there was a byelection happening in a rural Liberal riding right now, the recent amendments made to the so-called assault weapon ban would probably be their death knell. But that won't work in Mississauga, hunting is not a big deal there. The economy is still in rocky waters and we could well enter a recession with the BoC's continued rate hikes, but the initial shock of inflation is gone, and things feel more "normal" today than they have for quite some time, and that is good news for the Liberals.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Confidence among CPC partisans is very low going into the Mississauga-Lakeshore byelection. Losing it wouldn't be the end of the world, but if we lose it by a 5 point margin or more (it was a 6 point deficit in 2021), tough questions have to be asked about the seriousness of Poilievre's backroom.

The Liberals nominated a candidate a month later than the CPC - yes, a much stronger candidate, but a beatable one in the current climate nonetheless. CPC seems not to have taken advantage of that head start, or even of all the money in their coffers.

From leadership sales alone, the CPC collected $10M+ this year, on top of the few million in donations that they usually get. The CPC machinery is considerably better funded than the LPC, yet it seems the Liberals have outspent us in this byelection. The kind of push needed to flip a stubborn but close riding never materialized.

Maybe internal polling looked really bad, and they didn't want to waste too much time and money on a losing race, or tie Poilievre to a defeat. We'll see if that's the case, but if Mississauga-Lakeshore looks unwinnable for the Conservatives, that's a damning indictment that Poilievre's people need to sort out.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Tories will try to spin not going down much, but this is still a pretty awful result for them.

HQ might, but the supporters are furious. With current polling numbers, this should be a close race. Sousa's name recognition probably gave the Libs a few % more than otherwise, fine, but it still shouldn't be a blowout in a riding that hasn't had a blowout since 2004.

Turnout was a measly 26%. That's embarrassing from a "healthy democracy" standpoint, but even more embarrassing for the CPC. The worry with Poilievre was whether he could flip Liberal voters, but there was no doubt that he could energize right-leaning people. Well, here we had a byelection where most swing voters probably didn't turn out, considering the low turnout rate, so the question was who could energize the base more. But Poilievre didn't even try, he basically sat out the first big test of his leadership. His backroom staff and overall political instincts looked top-notch in the leadership race, but his leadership so far has been pretty uncharacteristically tepid and risk-averse, which is not what you want from the Official Opposition

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Not good news for the Conservatives - this is where they need to win (or at least increase their vote share) to be in contention.  Perhaps the moderates that came before Pierre P actually were better in the GTA.

With turnout so low (like, 1/3 of what you'd see in a general election), I wouldn't necessarily draw that conclusion. When turnout is this low, you're not likely seeing many people changing their vote, it's usually the most partisan people who turn out.

But that's no excuse, because how on earth are you not able to turn out your vote? In a byelection? Against a governing party on its eighth year and with weak approvals? When you have a huge fundraising advantage?

The reason I supported Poilievre over Charest was because I believed (and still do) that a Charest leadership would have atrophied the base to the point of any potential swings not really making a difference. Poilievre's risk was that he wouldn't be able to swing votes, but we were confident that he would at least maximize the number of right-leaning people who come out to vote CPC. But if he can't even do that (largely because he can't be bothered to campaign apparently), then what's the damn point?

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

How much "base" is there in Mississauga Lakeshore of all places?

Considering the Conservatives regularly get high 30s-low 40s, there's clearly a base. Smaller base than the Liberals', but it's there to turn out if you put in the effort. In a low turnout environment and a "meh" economy, the opposition party should have the turnout advantage

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

I wonder if King-Vaughan will stay with the CPC.  It's more Italian Canadian/Russian "new money", in contrast to the more "old money WASP" lakeshore suburban ridings.

I could easily see "new money second-generation immigrant" ridings trend right, and "old money WASP" ridings trend left, similar to what happened provincially